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Southern Slopes Cluster Report SOUTHERN SLOPES CLUSTER REPORT PROJECTIONS FOR AUSTRALIA´ S NRM REGIONS SOUTHERN SLOPES CLUSTER REPORT PROJECTIONS FOR AUSTRALIA´ S NRM REGIONS © CSIRO 2015 CLIMATE CHANGE IN AUSTRALIA PROJECTIONS CLUSTER REPORT – SOUTHERN SLOPES ISBN Print: 978-1-4863-0430-1 Online: 978-1-4863-0431-8 CITATION Grose, M. et al., 2015, Southern Slopes Cluster Report, Climate Change in Australia Projections for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Cluster Reports, eds. Ekström, M. et al., CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia CONTACTS E: [email protected] T: 1300 363 400 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER Lead Author – Michael Grose © 2015 CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this Contributing Authors – Debbie Abbs, Jonas Bhend, Francis publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or Chiew, John Church, Marie Ekström, Dewi Kirono, Andrew copied in any form or by any means except with the written Lenton, Chris Lucas, Kathleen McInnes, Aurel Moise, Didier permission of CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. Monselesan, Freddie Mpelasoka, Leanne Webb and Penny Whetton IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Editors – Marie Ekström, Penny Whetton, Chris Gerbing, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology advise that the Michael Grose, Leanne Webb and James Risbey information contained in this publication comprises general Additional acknowledgements – Janice Bathols, Tim Bedin, statements based on scientific research. The reader is John Clarke, Clement Davis, Tim Erwin, Craig Heady, Peter advised and needs to be aware that such information may Hoffman, Jack Katzfey, Julian O’Grady, Tony Rafter, Surendra be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. Rauniyar, Rob Smalley, Bertrand Timbal, Yang Wang, Ian No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that Watterson, and Louise Wilson information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted Project coordinators – Kevin Hennessy, Paul Holper and by law, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (including Mandy Hopkins their employees and consultants) exclude all liability to any Design and editorial support – Alicia Annable, Siobhan person for any consequences, including but not limited Duffy, Liz Butler, and Peter Van Der Merwe to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Andrew Tait, publication (in part or in whole) and any information or Michael Hutchinson and David Karoly material contained in it. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible This report has been printed on ecoStar, a recycled paper for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups made from 100% post-consumer waste. for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. cluster report: SOUTHERN SLOPES 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE . 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 4 1 THE SOUTHERN SLOPES CLUSTER . 7 2 CLIMATE OF SOUTHERN SLOPES . 8 3 SIMULATING REGIONAL CLIMATE . 11 4 THE CHANGING CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHERN SLOPES . .. 14 4 1. Ranges of projected climate change and confidence in projections . 15 4 2 . Temperature . 16 4 2 .1 . Extremes . 22 4 .3 Mean sea level pressure . 23 4 4 . Rainfall . 24 4 .4 1. Heavy rainfall events . 29 4 4. 2. Drought . 30 4 .4 3. Snow . 31 4 .5 Winds, storms and weather systems . 31 4 .5 1. Mean winds . 31 4 .5 .2 Extreme winds . 33 4 .5 .3 Extra-tropical cyclones . 33 4 6. Solar radiation . 33 4 7. Relative humidity . 34 4 .8 Potential evapotranspiration . 34 4 9. Soil moisture and runoff . 35 4 10. Fire weather . 36 4 11. Marine projections . 37 4 11. 1. Sea Level . 37 4 11. .2 Sea surface temperature, salinity and acidification . 38 4 12. Other projection material for the cluster . 39 5 APPLYING THE REGIONAL PROJECTIONS IN ADAPTATION PLANNING . 40 5 1. Identifying future climate scenarios . 40 5 .2 Developing climate scenarios using the Climate Futures tool . 41 REFERENCES . 45 APPENDIX . .. 49 ABBREVIATIONS . 55 NRM GLOSSARY OF TERMS . 56 GLOSSARY REFERENCES . 59 2 CLIMATE CHANGE IN AUSTRALIA PREFACE Australia’s changing climate represents a significant In recognition of the impact of climate change on the challenge to individuals, communities, governments, management of Australia’s natural resources, the Australian businesses and the environment. Australia has already Government developed the Regional Natural Resource experienced increasing temperatures, shifting rainfall Management Planning for Climate Change Fund. This fund patterns and rising oceans. has enabled significant research into the impact of the future climate on Australia’s natural resources, as well as The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adaptation opportunities for protecting and managing our Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2013) rigorously assessed the land, soil, water, plants and animals. current state and future of the global climate system. The report concluded that: Australia has 54 natural resource management (NRM) regions, which are defined by catchments and bioregions. • greenhouse gas emissions have markedly increased as a Many activities of organisations and ecosystem services result of human activities within the NRM regions are vulnerable to impacts of • human influence has been detected in warming of the climate change. atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global For this report, these NRM regions are grouped into mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate ‘clusters’, which largely correspond to the broad-scale extremes climate and biophysical regions of Australia (Figure A). The clusters are diverse in their history, population, resource • it is extremely likely that human influence has been the base, geography and climate. Therefore, each cluster has a dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid- unique set of priorities for responding to climate change. 20th century • continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have further warming and changes in all components of the prepared tailored climate change projection reports for each climate system. NRM cluster. These projections provide guidance on the changes in climate that need to be considered in planning. FIGURE A: THE EIGHT NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (NRM) CLUSTERS cluster report: SOUTHERN SLOPES 3 This is the regional projections report for the Southern The projections in this report are based on the outputs Slopes cluster. This document provides projections in a of sophisticated global climate models (GCMs). GCMs are straightforward and concise format with information about based on the laws of physics, and have been developed the cluster as a whole, as well as additional information at over many years in numerous centres around the world. finer scales where appropriate. These models are rigorously tested for their ability to reproduce past climate. The projections in this report This cluster report is part of a suite of products. These primarily use output from the ensemble of model include a brochure for each cluster that provides the key simulations brought together for the Coupled Model Inter- projection statements in a brief format. There is also the comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012), Australian climate change projections Technical Report, where phase 5 is the most recent comparison of model which describes the underlying scientific basis for the climate simulations addressing, amongst other things, projections change projections. Box 1 describes all supporting products. of future climates. In this report, outputs from GCMs in This report provides the most up to date, comprehensive the CMIP5 archive are complemented by regional climate and robust information available for this part of Australia, modelling and statistical downscaling. and draws on both international and national data resources and published peer-reviewed literature. BOX 1: CLIMATE CHANGE IN AUSTRALIA – PRODUCTS This report is part of a suite of Climate Change in TECHNICAL REPORT Australia (CCIA) products prepared with support from Purpose: technical information for researchers and decision- the Australian Government’s Regional Natural Resource makers Management Planning for Climate Change Fund. These products provide information on climate change A comprehensive report outlining the key climate change projections and their application. projection messages for Australia across a range of variables. The report underpins all information found CLUSTER BROCHURES in other products. It contains an extensive set of figures and descriptions on recent Australian climate trends, Purpose: key regional messages for everyone global climate change science, climate model evaluation A set of brochures that summarise key climate change processes, modelling methodologies and downscaling projections for each of the eight clusters. The brochures approaches. The report includes a chapter describing are a useful tool for community engagement. how to use climate change data in risk assessment and adaptation planning. CLUSTER REPORTS Purpose: regional detail for planners and decision-makers
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