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The Case for Multilateralism: the Korean Peninsula in a Regional Context Niklas Swanström

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The Case for Multilateralism: the Korean Peninsula in a Regional Context Niklas Swanström Focus Asia Perspective & Analysis June 2020 The Case for Multilateralism: The Korean Peninsula in a Regional Context Niklas Swanström In the absence of a formal regional security framework in Northeast Asia, recent years have seen an almost exclusive focus on summit-driven bilateral diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula, most notably the first ever meeting between incumbent leaders of the U.S. and North Korea in Singapore in June 2018. However, bilateral approaches have also been prone to stalemate and risk excluding important stakeholders and issues regarding peace and security on the Peninsula. While outlining the challenges to doing so, this essay makes the case for multilateral mechanisms and frameworks to complement bilateral exchanges. Series on Peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula This essay is part of an ongoing series by ISDP’s Korea Center to provide different perspectives on peacebuilding on the Korean Penin- sula. In so doing, it recognizes that peacebuilding is a long-term process and involves different dimensions, from the diplomatic and military to economic and societal. Introduction With the exception of the ultimately failed Six-Party Talks (2003-09), the main focus of nuclear-related The Korean Peninsula remains an enduring conflict negotiations and agreements have been bilateral in hotspot and security challenge. Since the end of the nature, notably the 1994 Agreed Framework and the Korean War in 1953, efforts to build a sustainable short-lived so-called 2012 Leap Day Deal between peace have been thwarted amidst a long history North Korea and the United States.1 However, of tension, aggression, and broken promises; this breakthroughs have often failed to survive political despite periods of temporarily improved relations transitions, geopolitical shifts, and the challenges of and détente. Conflict resolution impulses have been implementation. further hampered by the complexities of geostrategic tensions and power rivalry in the wider Northeast This is not least true today when the promising Asian region amidst the enduring absence of any bilateral contacts between President Trump and formal regional security structure. Chairman Kim, as well as the leaders of the two Koreas, initiated in 2018, have not been sustained 1 Focus Asia Perspective & Analysis The Case for Multilateralism: June 2020 The Korean Peninsula in a Regional Context and negotiations have stalemated. This points, in part, to the fragility of relying on bilateral diplomacy alone. The Institute for Security and Development Policy is an independent, non-partisan research and policy organization Accordingly, the points of departure in this essay are based in Stockholm dedicated to expanding understanding the regional security dynamics in Northeast Asia, of international affairs. the need to see the Korean Peninsula in a regional For enquiries, please contact: [email protected] context, and why this necessitates multilateral No parts of this paper may be reproduced without ISDP’s frameworks and regional security initiatives to permission. complement bilateral exchanges. It then reviews Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this paper are those of previous attempts to establish such structures, the author only and do not necessarily reflect those of ISDP what they achieved, but also what limitations and or its sponsors. challenges they faced. Finally, some lessons and principles are put forward on how future frameworks may be adopted. Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty (INF) between Regional Security Dynamics the United States and Russia could also exacerbate the situation if the U.S. decides to deploy intermediate- The region of Northeast Asia, here defined as Russia, range ballistic missiles in the region in response to China, Japan, North and South Korea, as well as China and North Korea.5 the U.S. due to its strategic interests in the region, remains a security hotspot. Conflict dynamics The rise of an increasingly economically and militarily include unresolved territorial and maritime disputes, assertive China also poses security implications for its historical enmities combined with nationalism worried neighbors. Increasing militarization amidst and militarism, as well as geopolitical competition a conventional arms race between countries does not between the United States and China; and to a lesser bode well for multilateral security cooperation and extent Russia. reducing threat perceptions.6 Despite the relatively positive economic cooperation The trade war and growing U.S.-China geostrategic and interdependence between regional states competition means that Japan and South Korea (excepting North Korea), this has not translated face the dilemma of balancing relations with both into overarching political and security cooperation. powers while being pressured to side with their U.S. This is what has come to be referred to as the so- ally.7 Yet at the same time, under an erratic Trump called “Asian Paradox.”2 Instead, security has been administration in the White House, doubts have maintained through military deterrence and bilateral grown over U.S. alliance commitments to South security alliances rather than through collective Korea and Japan’s security.8 security arrangements, which remain undeveloped. While a decades-long feature of the politico-security Great power competition, furthermore, lessens landscape in Northeast Asia, it is presently in flux.3 the incentives for cooperation between China and the U.S. on Korean Peninsula issues, whereby the North Korea’s de facto nuclear weapons status Peninsula instead turns into a theater for strategic has long-term implications and increases the calls confrontation.9 North Korea is adept at exploiting in South Korea and Japan to also acquire their the gaps between the parties to its own advantage, own nuclear weapons.4 Thus there is the very real thus reducing the pressure on it to denuclearize. potential of a nuclear arms race developing in the region if efforts for North Korea’s denuclearization At the same time, the past decade has seen an do not succeed. Moreover, the abrogation of the increasing appreciation for the interrelated nature of 2 Focus Asia Perspective & Analysis The Case for Multilateralism: June 2020 The Korean Peninsula in a Regional Context the region’s economic, energy, security, climate, and Bilateral talks between the U.S. and North Korea are environmental challenges.10 Shared challenges can essential for addressing nuclear and security concerns be recast as shared opportunities which necessitate on the Korean Peninsula. Inter-Korean relations are platforms for dialogue, cooperation, and integration also important for addressing these issues as well as at the regional level. promoting reconciliation. However, any sustainable peace and denuclearization process needs to encompass While these trends and dynamics may spur, and a broader range of stakeholders and regional issues. necessitate, constructive initiatives to create a new security architecture, they may also dangerously destabilize the region, raising the prospect of Any sustainable peace increased competition and conflict. Accordingly, and denuclearization the security situation on the Korean Peninsula is both influenced by wider regional dynamics as well process needs to as influences in the regional security environment. encompass a broader Peace and security on the Korean Peninsula cannot be considered outside of the wider Northeast Asian, range of stakeholders and indeed, global context. and regional issues. Beyond Bilateralism A formal end to the Korean War through the signing In the absence of a relevant multilateral framework, of a peace treaty would require at a minimum the the most recent phase of negotiations on the Korean participation of the United States, China, and Peninsula since 2018 has been characterized by North Korea as original signatories of the Armistice bilateral summit-driven diplomacy between the Agreement, as well as arguably South Korea. Any such different actors. This has included summits between treaty would furthermore potentially entail significant the United States and North Korea, South and North modifications in the posture and purpose of the U.S. Korea, China and North Korea, as well as North security alliance with South Korea, such as a reduction Korea and Russia. Japanese premier Shinzo Abe is in U.S. military personnel, removing strategic assets presently the only regional leader to have not met with away from the Peninsula, or reconfiguring military Kim Jong Un.11 These summits produced positive exercises.14 outcomes in the form of the Singapore Statement between the U.S. and North Korea in June 2018 as All regional actors have a stake in North Korea’s well as the two inter-Korean agreements, leading to an denuclearization as well as the status of its other overall reduction in tensions.12 weapons of mass destruction and conventional missile capabilities. The consequences of a failure, or indeed These accomplishments, however, do not guarantee success, in securing the denuclearization of North any lasting stability as relations are currently “stuck” Korea, are thus very much of regional and even in a bilateral structure that risks stalemating between international importance. uncompromising demands and personal agendas. The high stakes of bilateral summits were exposed at The lifting of sanctions on North Korea, furthermore, the second Hanoi Summit between President Trump and the provision of humanitarian and economic and Chairman Kim in February 2019. Failure to aid, requires
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