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Uzbekistan's Ambiguous Policies in Afghanistan

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Uzbekistan's Ambiguous Policies in Afghanistan PRIO POLICY BRIEF 01 2016 Visiting Address: Hausmanns gate 7 Address: Visiting Norway NO-0134 Oslo, 9229 Grønland, PO Box Institute Oslo (PRIO) Research Peace Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and Concluding and looking ahead Notes has reportedly requested his northern neighbors to provide weapons and other Human Rights Watch (2011) ‘Uzbekistan: Gov- Uzbekistan’s engagement with military support. For Uzbekistan, Dostum ernment Shuts Down Human Rights Watch Of- Uzbekistan’s ambiguous • Afghanistan is largely driven by its need represents a possibility for access and a fice’. www.hrw.org/news/2011/03/15/uzbekistan- to affirm its relevance to the international chance to influence the very top of the government-shuts-down-human-rights-watch- community. When Uzbek officials Afghan leadership. office continuously represent the country as policies on Afghanistan threatened by unrest in Afghanistan, • The domestic situation in Uzbekistan is Malashenko, Alexey (2014) ‘Exploring Uzbeki- the implicit message is that the country closely connected to the regional context, stan’s potential political transition. Carnegie shares an enemy with the West. Such most notably in the country’s relationship Moscow Center’. carnegieendowment.org/files/ an image of a threat is beneficial to the with Kazakhstan and with Afghanistan. CP_Uzbekistan_web_Eng2014.pdf Uzbek government, both in its pursuit If the situation in Afghanistan continues Tolipov, Farkhad (2011) ‘Strategic Uncertainty in of domestic regime security and in to deteriorate, Uzbekistan’s importance Uzbekistan’s Afghanistan policy’. carnegieendow- drawing international legitimacy. Anybody to the international community will be ment.org/files/CP_Uzbekistan_web_Eng2014.pdf pursuing a regional commitment to strengthened. On the other hand, the Twitter: PRIOUpdates Twitter: PRIO.org Facebook: www.prio.org Afghanistan’s stability should maintain current crises in Syria and Iraq have Rado Free Europe (2006) ‘UNHCR leaves Uz- Uzbek officials have for more than dialogue with the Uzbek authorities, yet be placed Afghanistan in the shadow, and as bekistan’. www.rferl.org/content/article/1067722. Brief Points sensitive to how Tashkent may exploit the a consequence diminished Uzbekistan’s html 20 years defined the situation ‘Afghan threat’. significance to the international Uzbekistan has explicitly stated that Radio Free Europe (2015) ‘Uzbek Intelligence • community. What remains certain is that in Afghanistan as the main it wishes to deal with Afghanistan • There is a dire need for more knowledge Uzbekistan has the potential to be playing Agent Claims IS “Planning Series Of Attacks”’. on Uzbekistan’s policy towards a more proactive role in Afghanistan’s www.rferl.org/content/uzbekistan-fears-islamic- threat to Uzbekistan’s national on a bilateral basis, and has in recent Afghanistan, which is characterized by a future. Whether it will do so remains an state-planning-attacks/26828229.html years kept at a distance from several fundamental insistence on unilateralism open question, and will depend primarily United Nations (2015) ‘The situation in Afghani- security. Even so, Tashkent has that sets it apart from other countries of multilateral regional processes. on domestic developments. stan and its implications for regional and inter- the neighborhood. Effective engagement deliberately limited its involvement national security’. unama.unmissions.org/Portals/ of Uzbekistan is unavoidable, but the Uzbekistan’s policy towards UNAMA/SG%20Reports/SG-report-March2015. • ability to pursue a coherent policy rests on with Afghanistan. How can Afghanistan reflects a wish to balance Recommended readings pdf solid understanding. President Karimov is two major factors: (1) maintaining now 77 years old, and the question of who this paradox be understood? may be his possible successor has already Said Reza Kazemi (2012) ‘A Potential Afghan regime stability at home, and (2) 978-82-7288-648-5 (print) ISBN: By analyzing the Uzbek policy become a topic of speculation. Most Spill-Over: How Real Are Central Asian Fears?’, gaining international legitimacy analysts suggest the head of the National Afghan Analysts Network. https://www.afghan- 978-82-7288-649-2 (online) towards Afghanistan, this policy by being involved in processes on Security Service, Rustam Inoyatov, as a istan-analysts.org/a-potential-afghan-spill-over- likely candidate to succeed Karimov. All how-real-are-central-asian-fears/ brief aims to reach stakeholders Afghanistan. stakeholders should remain alert to the Kristin Fjæstad & Heidi Kjærnet (2014) ‘Perform- potential risks associated with a political Western states threatened to freeze ing Statehood: Afghanistan as an arena for the working with Afghanistan in a • transition. relations with Uzbekistan in 2005, Central Asian states’, Central Asian Survey, 33(3). neighborhood perspective. Since The special relationship between the following what several international Kristian Berg Harpviken & Shahrbanou Tad- • Uzbek government and the Vice President jbakhsh (forthcoming) ‘A Rock between Hard the Uzbek regime limits access organizations claim was a violent of Afghanistan, Abdul Rashid Dostum, is Places: Afghanistan as an arena for regional also of significance for future engagement. to information, analyses on government crackdown on protestors insecurity’. Dostum has during the last year visited Uzbekistan remain scant. in the city of Andijan. In recent years, Uzbekistan’s key role THE AUTHOR THE PROJECT PRIO • in the NATO reverse transit route Joakim Brattvoll holds an MA in International This policy brief was written as a part of the The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) is a Relations from the Norwegian University of project ‘Afghanistan in a Neighborhood Per- non-profit peace research institute (estab- Northern Distribution Network (NDN) Life Sciences (2014) and a BA in Russian from spective’, funded by the Norwegian Ministry lished in 1959) whose overarching purpose from Afghanistan has been the main the University of Copenhagen (2012). of Foreign Affairs. is to conduct research on the conditions for driver for improving relations with the peaceful relations between states, groups and people. The institute is independent, interna- West. tional and interdisciplinary, and explores is- sues related to all facets of peace and conflict. Joakim Brattvoll Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) PRIO POLICY BRIEF 01 2016 www.prio.org of terrorism and extremism stemming from Karimov sought to relaunch the ‘6+2’ at the Bu- organizations claim that 300–1000 people were Uzbekistan-Afghanistan relations Afghanistan, the country does not participate charest NATO Summit in 2008, but now as 6+3, killed in the events. Following the US call for an Uzbekistan shares a 144 km border with in any form of security cooperation with the with NATO as a new member. Most interna- independent investigation of what had occurred • Afghanistan. The border follows the Amu Afghan authorities. In early 2015, officer Alisher tional stakeholders were sceptical of Karimov’s in Andijan, the Uzbek government asked the River, linked to the Afghan province Balkh Khamdanov, speaking on behalf of the Uzbek initiative, arguing that any peace process on Af- Americans to leave the military base in Kharsi by road via the Hairatan-Termez crossing. National Security Service (SNB) claimed that ghanistan ought to be Afghan-led. Uzbekistan’s Khanabad (K2) within 90 days. Following 2005, Foreign Minister, Abdulaziz Kamilov, reiterated militants from the Islamic State (IS) in Af- the international presence in Uzbekistan has The Uzbek ethnic minority in Afghanistan ghanistan were planning a series of attacks in the wish to relaunch the group at the UN in • diminished. Uzbek authorities asked the United consists of an estimated 2 million people Uzbekistan. In similar assertions, Uzbekistan 2012, but once again the international reception Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UN- (some 6–9% of the total population). has voiced concern about a spill-over of Tali- was lukewarm. In addition to excluding Kabul, HCR) to leave the country in 2006, and in 2011, President Karimov maintains a ban militants across its border from northern the 6+3 format fails to include Saudi Arabia and Human Rights Watch was made to shut down • close relationship to Abdul Rashid Afghanistan. Many view this concern as a tool India, undeniably two players with considerable its office in Tashkent. Dostum, currently the vice-president of used to gain political and material benefits from influence on the situation in Afghanistan. Tak- Afghanistan. Western countries. ing into account that Uzbekistan’s influence in Afghanistan is limited, as compared to Pakistan Largely due to NATO’s need to reduce its logisti- • Dostum is the leader of the party This is not to say that terrorism is illusory in or Saudi Arabia for instance, the 6+3 format cal dependence on the Pakistan-Afghanistan Jombesh-e Melli-ye Islami-ye Afghanistan Uzbekistan. The country has had problems seems unlikely to gain any further international Ground Line of Communication (GLOC), rela- (Afghanistan’s National Islamic with domestic militant groups, most notably support. tions between Uzbekistan and Western coun- Movement), which draws its main support the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), tries have improved significantly in recent years. from among the Uzbek population. that pledged its allegiance to IS in April 2015. One of the international initiatives that have NATO signed a deal with Uzbekistan on reverse
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