5.0 Cumulative Scenario and Methodology

California Flats Solar Project EIR Section 5.0 Cumulative Scenario and Methodology

5.0 CUMULATIVE SCENARIO AND METHODOLOGY

5.1 CEQA REQUIREMENTS

According to the State CEQA Guidelines Section 15130(a)(1), “a cumulative impact consists of an impact which is created as a result of the combination of the project evaluated in the environmental impact report (EIR) together with other projects causing related impacts.” In addition, an EIR must discuss cumulative impacts if the incremental effect of a project, combined with the effects of other projects is “cumulatively considerable” [Section 15130(a)]. Such incremental effects are to be “viewed in connection with the effects of past projects, the effects of other current projects, and the effects of probable future projects” [Section 15164(b)(1)]. Together, these projects comprise the cumulative scenario which forms the basis of the cumulative impact analysis. A cumulative impact analysis should highlight past actions that are closely related (either in time or location) to the project being considered, catalogue past projects and discuss how past projects have harmed the environment, and discuss past actions, even if they were undertaken by another agency or another person.

Both the severity of impacts and the likelihood of their occurrence are to be reflected in the discussion, “but the discussion need not provide as great detail as is provided for the effects attributable to the project alone. The discussion of cumulative impacts shall be guided by standards of practicality and reasonableness, and shall focus on the cumulative impact to which the identified other projects contribute rather than the attributes of other projects which do not contribute to the cumulative impact” [Section 15130(b)]. However, the analysis must be in sufficient detail to be useful to decision makers in deciding whether, or how, to alter the program to lessen cumulative impacts. Most of the projects included in the cumulative projects list (refer to Table 5-1) have, are, or will be required to undergo their own independent environmental review under CEQA. Significant adverse impacts of the cumulative projects would be required to be reduced, avoided, or minimized through the application and implementation of mitigation measures. The net effect of these mitigation measures is assumed to be a general lessening of the potential for a contribution to cumulative impacts.

There are two commonly used approaches, or methodologies, for establishing the cumulative impact setting or scenario. One approach is to use a “list of past, present, and probable future projects producing related or cumulative impacts” [Section 15130(b)(1)(A)]. The other is to use a “summary of projects contained in an adopted general plan or related planning document, or in a prior environmental document which has been adopted or certified, which described or evaluated regional or area wide conditions contributing to the cumulative impact” [Section 15130(b)(1)(B)]. This EIR uses the list approach to provide a tangible understanding and context for analysing the potential cumulative effects of a project. General plans and other planning documents were used as additional reference points in establishing the cumulative scenario for the analysis.

County of Monterey 5-1 California Flats Solar Project EIR Section 5.0 Cumulative Scenario and Methodology

5.2 CUMULATIVE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO

5.2.1 Proposed Development in the Project Vicinity

Past, present and reasonably foreseeable future projects that could produce related or cumulative impacts are listed in Table 5‐1, and include projects in the South County Planning Area of Monterey County, northern San Luis Obispo County (in the vicinity of the communities of Cholame and Shandon), western Kings County [west of Interstate 5 (I-5)], and western Fresno County (west of Interstate 5). The table indicates the project name and project type, as well as its location and status.

Collectively, these projects represent known and anticipated activities that may occur in the project vicinity that have the potential to produce related or cumulative impacts on the environment. Many projects in the cumulative effects scenario are limited in their geographic extent and would result in minor construction plans and renovations. Other projects in Table 5‐ 1, such as the solar projects, are expansive in nature and would have the potential to create cumulative impacts despite their distance from the proposed project. The more extensive solar projects in the vicinity of the project site are shown in Figure 5-1.

Table 5-1 Cumulative Project List

Project Name Project Type Location Status Monterey County: South County Planning Area PLN110569 Bray Use Permit to reactivate Along the east side of Complete. expired Use Permit Paris Valley Road, west of PLN080414, which allowed Highway 101 and four the drilling of six miles north of the town of exploratory oil and gas San Ardo wells on two sites in the same parcel. PLN120417 Roman Use Permit to allow Within U.S. Army Garrison Approved by County. Catholic Bishop of rehabilitation of existing Fort Hunter Liggett, at the Construction started, not Monterey structures at the Mission terminus of Mission Road, yet finished (will be built in San Antonio de Padua. Jolon phases). PLN030335 Schulze Administrative Permit to 177420 Indian Valley Approved by County. allow the construction of Road, San Miguel, Construction started, not an 850 sq. ft. one-story Assessor’s Parcel Number yet finished. senior citizen unit with an (APN) 424-441-002-000 attached 529 sq. ft. garage. PLN030507 Chevron Combined Development Pipeline will commence at Approved by County. Heated Oil Pipeline San Permit to allow installation the San Ardo Oil Field in Combined Development Ardo to Coalinga and operation of a 57.5 Monterey County and Permit expiration date has mile underground 10.75 traverse approximately 19 been extended to March inch diameter heated oil miles eastward to the 26, 2015. Construction not pipeline. Fresno County Line yet started.

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Table 5-1 Cumulative Project List

Project Name Project Type Location Status PLN040103 County Combined Development 70850 and 70970 New Approved by County. Lake Estates Permit to allow a standard Pleyto Road, Bradley, Phase I Final Map for first subdivision vesting APNs 423-131-061-000 14 lots has been tentative map to divide two and 424-131-062-000 submitted. Construction of properties totalling 92 improvements has not yet acres into 52 started. single family parcels ranging in size from 1.0 acre to 5.1 acres and 5 commercial parcels; Use Permit to allow construction of a mutual water system; Use Permit to continue automobile and recreational vehicle storage and a General Development Plan. Phase 2 of the development proposal includes an offer to dedicate a site for a potential sheriff's station, two on-site inclusionary units, and an on-site park for recreation purposes. PLN050134 Victor Combined Development 70224 New Pleyto Road, Approved by County. Vargas Permit consisting of a Bradley, APN 423-251- Construction not yet General Development plan 010-000 started. for the establishment of a towing operation, automotive shops and RV/Boat Storage developed in two phases and a single family dwelling. PLN060043 Villanueva Minor Subdivision 50403 Martinez Road, Approved by County. Saul Victor & Maria Tentative Map to allow the Lockwood, APN 423-041- Construction not yet division of a 160 acre 018-000 started. parcel into four 40-acre parcels and a small water system. PLN060371 Long Valley Administrative Permit to 57440 Highway 198, 5 Approved. Partially built. Ranch Partners LLC allow a mutual small water miles east of San Lucas, system with 5-14 APNs 420-101-044-000, connections to serve 12 420-101-045-000, 421- parcels. 101-031-000, 421-101- 032-000, 421-131-006- 000, 421-131-007-000, 421-131-008-000, 421- 131-009-000 and 421-131- 010-000 PLN080320 Porter Use Permit to allow drilling Section 6 Township 24S Approved by County. Estate Company Bm 2-6 of three exploratory oil and Range 11E, cross streets Construction not yet gas wells. Hames Valley Road at started. Highway 101, APN 424- 101-004-000

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Table 5-1 Cumulative Project List

Project Name Project Type Location Status PLN080327 Porter Use Permit to allow drilling Section 2 Township 24S Approved by County. Estate Company Bm 2-3 of three exploratory oil and Range 10E, Bradley, APN Construction not yet gas wells. 424-081-082-000 started. PLN090296 Doud John Use Permit to allow the 612 acre Doud Ranch Approved by County. Edward Tr construction of one 6- north of Lonoak Road, Construction not yet meter-tall temporary pole approximately 3.8 miles started. tower to collect wind and southeast of King City, other meteorological data. APN 420-091-008-000 PLN110139 Sonne Guy Combined Development 65740 and 65750 Bradley Approved by County. D & Susan D Permit consisting of: 1) Road, Bradley, APNs 424- Construction not yet Use Permit to allow the 351-032-000, 424-351- started. construction of a 2,850 sf 033-000 mini storage facility with 4 parking spaces and a 784 sf manager’s residence (mobile home) and 2) Lot Line Adjustment to merge 3 existing lots into one parcel. San Luis Obispo County: Northeastern County Highway 46 Corridor Widening from a two- lane Highway 46 between Phased construction is Improvement Project to a four-lane expressway Geneseo Road and currently underway. from Geneseo Road Interstate 5. in Paso Robles to Interstate 5 in phases over an extended multi- year period Windfall Farms Minor Use Permit to allow Creston, APN 035-361-003 Application submitted, but temporary events within an project is on hold. existing equestrian facility (the Ranch), including 24 temporary event days per year, ranging in size from 51 to 3,000 people, Tobin James Winery Development proposal to Highway 46, APN 015- Application submitted. add an 18,000 sf addition 041-070 onto existing barrel storage building. No increase in case production.

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Table 5-1 Cumulative Project List

Project Name Project Type Location Status Kings County: West of I-5 GPA 11-01/CZDB 11-01 Zoning change of 156.43 Near the intersection of I-5 Drafting environmental The Jackson Utica acres of land from General and Utica Avenue, Kings document. Commercial Agriculture (AG-40) to County Development Project Highway Commercial (CH) and Light Industrial (ML) for the purpose of creating a highway oriented development including a truck stop facility, highway related service commercial uses such as hotels and restaurants/fast food businesses, and fueling facilities, light industrial operations and service uses related to trucking logistics and transfer/warehouse facilities easily accessible from Interstate-5. GPA 12-01/CZDB 12-01 Zoning change of Unincorporated area of The initial study/mitigated Sign Zoning Change – approximately 18 acres Kings County on the west negative declaration has Kyle Jackson (Applicant) from General Agriculture side of Interstate 5 not yet been completed. 40 (AG-40) to Highway approximately 3/4 mile Commercial (CH) for the north of the Milham purpose of constructing a St/Interstate 5 overpass in commercial sign. the Kettelman City area, APN 038-240-079 CUP 11-01 Jacob’s 60 MW Solar PV Project. 18714 18th Avenue, The initial study/mitigated Corner - Jacob Canal Stratford, APNs 026-080- negative declaration has Solar Farm LLC, Laurel 001, 004, 005, & 031; 026- not yet been completed. East Solar Farm LLC, 090-020; and 026-200-002 and Laural West Solar Farm LLC (Applicants)

CUP 11-05 Aurora Solar 20 MW Solar PV Project. APNs 026-070-025, 026, The application is – Iberdrola (Applicant) 029, 030, 031, and 032 incomplete. CUP 11-07 Stratford 20 MW Solar PV Project. APNs 024-190-037 The initial study/mitigated Solar – Eurus Energy (Project Site) and portions negative declaration has (Applicant) of 024-190-008, 019, 033, been circulated for public and 057 (Access review and comment. Driveway) Comments were received. A response to comments is currently being prepared. CUP 11-10 Zodiac – Oil and gas production APN 045-150-061 The application is on hold Zodiac Energy plant facility to process oil at the request of the (Applicant) and gas extracted from applicant. other locations. CUP 12-08 Sweetwater 20 MW Solar PV Project. 7094 Nevada Avenue, The initial study/mitigated – Solar Project Solutions Corcoran, APNs 028-290- negative declaration has (Applicant) 041 and 043 not yet been completed.

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Table 5-1 Cumulative Project List

Project Name Project Type Location Status CUP 13-01 Quay Valley 150 MW Solar PV Project APNs 048-260-005; 048- The application is Solar One – Grow 270-001 and 012; 048- incomplete Holdings LLC. 280-026 and 027; and 048- (Applicant) 300-019 CUP 13-02 Gales Solar 3 MW Solar PV Project 7749 7th Avenue, Hanford, The initial study/mitigated Project – Belectric APN 014-090-033 negative declaration has (Applicant) not yet been completed. CUP 13-03 TriCal, Inc. Pesticide application 7533 & 7537 Hanford Proposed (Applicant) company. Armona Rd., Hanford, APN 016-130-079, 080, 081, and 082 CUP 13-04 Mark Establish a tattoo parlor 10668 14th Ave, Unit Proposed Fernandez (Applicant) within an existing building. #102, Armona, APN 017- 020-013 SPR 13-12 Mario Cruz Farm equipment supply 10903 D St., Armona, APN Proposed (Applicant) store within existing 5,000 017-090-001 sq. ft. building. SPR 13-11 Mark Noyes Mobile office building 6658 Nevada Avenue, Proposed (Applicant) incidental to an approved Corcoran, APN 028-280- solar project that is 020 currently under construction SPR 13-10 Victor Loza Agricultural equipment 20468 Lincoln Avenue, Proposed (Applicant) maintenance, repair, and Stratford, APN 026-132- storage shop within an 015 existing structure SPR 12-18 Nichols Establish pistachio hulling, 1216 Idaho Ave., Hanford, Approved Pistachio (Applicant) drying and storage APN 016-230-032 operation, including a truck scale, 400 sq. ft. office, three receiving pits, process equipment, lined wastewater pond, 3,000 sq. ft. maintenance building with restroom and storage, 13,500 sq. ft. wet process building, 15 nut dryers, 10 storage silos, 12,000 gallon water storage tank, 4x8 sign, and parking. SPR 12-20 Valley Acid 400 sq. ft. addition to an 20431 Lincoln Avenue, Approved (Applicant) existing agricultural Stratford, APN 026-230- services facility business 008 office and install 4 new paved parking spaces. SPR 13-01 Flouresco New 45’ freestanding 40103 Highway 33, Approved Lighting (Applicant) identification sign at an Avenal, APN 050-120-026 existing convenience store and fuel island. SPR 13-02 Venus Automotive repair 8972 E. Lacey Blvd., Approved Govea (Applicant) business. Hanford, APN 014-241- 002

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Table 5-1 Cumulative Project List

Project Name Project Type Location Status SPR 13-03 Joe Brasil Custom Hay Harvesting 10885 7th Ave., Hanford, Approved (Applicant) Business as an agricultural APN 016-070-080 services establishment and construction of 5.250 sq.ft. shade structure for farming equipment. SPR 13-04 Kings Co. Test well and production Southwest portion of the Approved Public Works (Applicant) well for the Hardwick Kings County Fire Station, Water Company. 14680 Excelsior Ave, Hanford, APN 002-240- 014 SPR 13-05 JVT 960 sq. ft. building to be 291 N 6th Ave, Kingsburg, Approved Enterprises (Applicant) used as an employee APN 002-020-033 and - lounge and 960 sq. ft. 132 building to be used as an office on the southwest side of the existing packing building. SPR 13-06 Juan Medina 2000 sq. ft. storage 14054 Front Str., Armona, Approved (Applicant) building behind existing APN 017-030-026 Kings Cultural Center. SPR 13-07 Adrian Construct a 4,956 sq. ft. 501 Jesse St., Hanford, Approved Sandoval (Applicant) commercial building that APN 014-204-002 will be divided into three units for automotive repair uses (two 1,638 sq. ft. and one 1,680 sq. ft.). Fresno County: West of I-5 Recurrent Energy Construct an up to 400 Unincorporated Fresno Draft EIR comment period Tranquillity Project MW solar power County approximately 7 closed July 7, 2014. generating facility on an miles southwest of approximately 3,575 acre community of Tranquillity site. and 5.45 miles east of Interstate 5 between West Manning Ave. and West Mountain View Ave.

5.2.2 Solar Projects Affecting Similar Resources

A large number of renewable projects have been proposed on federally managed land, State land, and private land throughout California. As of June 2011, there were 281 renewable projects totalling 25,900 MW proposed in California in various stages of the environmental review process or under construction (BLM, 2013). The solar projects that are most likely to combine with the California Flats Solar Project to create cumulative impacts (because of their location and size) include:

 California Valley Solar Ranch, San Luis Obispo County  Topaz Solar Farm, San Luis Obispo County  Quinto Farms, Merced County  Maricopa Sun Solar Complex, Kern County

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 Kern Solar Ranch, Kern County  Panoche Valley Solar Farm, San Benito County  Tranquillity Solar Generating Facility, Fresno County  Westlands Solar Park, Fresno and Kings Counties

Each of these projects is shown in Figure 5-1 and described below.

California Valley Solar Ranch. The solar ranch is a 250-Megawatt (MW) project with 10 solar photo-voltaic (PV) arrays, electrical equipment, O&M Building, generation tie-line, substation, and a switchyard. The project site is 4,365 acres, with solar arrays limited to 1,848 acres. The California Valley Solar Ranch site is located in eastern San Luis Obispo County, 43 miles southeast from the project. Construction of the project is complete and it is currently in operation with commercial operations commencing in October 2013.

Topaz Solar Farm. Topaz Solar Farm is a 550 MW solar project with approximately 460 PV arrays and associated electrical equipment, electrical substation and switching station, monitoring and maintenance facility (11,250 sq. ft.), a solar energy learning center (900 sq. ft.), underground feeder lines, 8-12 miles of medium voltage collector lines, on-site access roads, and a leach field and septic system. The project is located on the northwestern corner of the Carrisa Plain, approximately 35 miles south-southwest from the proposed project. The easternmost boundary of this facility is approximately four miles west of the western boundary of the California Valley Solar Ranch Project site. The project covers between 4,300 and 4,500 acres within an 8,000‐acre study area.

The Topaz Solar Farm Project Final EIR was certified by the San Luis Obispo County Board of Supervisors on July 12, 2011 and construction began in November 2011. The project is currently almost half way complete, with an official construction end date of Spring 2015. Phases 1-4 are complete, and phase 5 began in June, 2013. The site is currently delivering 180 MW of power to the grid and it is expected to be in full operation in 2015.

Quinto Farms. The proposed Quinto Farms project is a 110 MW solar PV energy generation facility on the 1,012-acre site located in southwestern Merced County, approximately 95 miles north-northeast of the Cal Flats project site. The proposed project consists of associated electrical equipment, an electrical substation and Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) switch station, and O&M building, utility lines and utility switching station upgrades, and a pre-fabricated bridge. The Final EIR for the project was released in September 2012. The proposed Quinto Farms project would be constructed over a period of about 16 months, starting in July 2014, with full operation anticipated by late 2015 (Oksana Newman, Merced County Planning Department, Personal Communication, July 14, 2014).

Maricopa Sun Solar Complex. Maricopa Sun Solar Complex is 700 MW solar farm located in Southwest Kern County, approximately 78 miles southeast from the proposed project. The project site is 6,047 acres, with 4,868 acres of solar panels. It is located between Taft and Interstate 5. The project facilities may include a series of PV panels, inverters, transformers, circuit breakers, metering equipment, switchgear, protective relays, and larger transformers to

County of Monterey 5-8 California Flats Solar Project EIR Section 5.0 Cumulative Scenario and Methodology

MARIPOSA CO

DETAIL MERCED Quinto Farms CO MADERA CO

Panoche Valley Solar Farm RE Tranquillity Solar Project S A N B E N I T O CO FRESNO CO

Westlands Solar Park TULARE MONTEREY KINGS CO CO CO California Flats Solar Project

Kern Solar Ranch Project

Topaz Solar Farm California Valley KERN Solar Ranch SAN LUIS OBISPO CO CO

Maricopa Sun Solar Project

Regional Solar Projects Figure 5-1 County of Monterey California Flats Solar Project EIR Section 5.0 Cumulative Scenario and Methodology

step up the voltage to match the voltage of the transmission grid at the interconnection point, transmission lines, substations, and, in some cases, the use of an O&M building adjacent to the solar field. The proposed project may also include one or more meteorological monitoring stations to track insolation temperature, wind direction, and speed.

The Maricopa project was approved by the Kern County Board of Supervisors in March 2011. The first two phases are planned to be 150 MW each (300MW total) and referred to as the Maricopa California Solar Farms I and II.

Kern Solar Ranch. The Kern Solar Ranch is a proposed project with capacity up to 1,000 MW. Additionally, an offsite Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) substation would be constructed as part of the proposed project, which would be located approximately 12 miles southeast of the Kern Solar Ranch project boundary. A 19 mile, 230-kilovolt (kV) generation tie-line (gen-tie) that would connect the facility to the utility grid is also proposed as part of the overall project.

The project boundary encompasses approximately 14,400 acres; however, the PV solar panels would be constructed on about 6,100 acres in unincorporated Kern County, California. Kern Solar Ranch is located approximately 33 miles southeast of the proposed project site.

The Kern Solar Ranch Notice of Preparation and Initial study were submitted on January 25, 2013. No draft EIR is available through Kern County to date, and the project is currently on hold (Craig Murphy, Kern County Planning and Community Development Department, Personal Communication, July 11, 2014).

Panoche Valley Solar Farm. The Panoche Valley Solar Farm is a 399 MW solar PV plant located along Little Panoche Road in the Panoche Valley, in southeastern San Benito County. The solar farm is approximately 62 miles north from the project site. The 399 MW solar PV project would include the installation of approximately 3 million to 4 million PV panels, PV module steel support structures, electrical inverters and transformers, an electrical substation with switchyard, buried electrical collection conduit, an O&M building, a septic system and leach field, a wastewater treatment facility and demineralization pond, on‐site access roads, transmission support towers and line(s) to interconnect with a PG&E transmission line that passes through the project site, and possible upgrades to PG&E’s transmission system.

Tranquillity Solar Generating Facility. The proposed Tranquillity Solar Generating Facility is a 400 MW solar PV plant located on approximately 3,575 acres 7 miles southwest of the community of Tranquillity in unincorporated Fresno County. The solar facility is approximately 50 miles north of the project site. The project would include development of approximately 1.8 million to 2.5 million solar PV panels, PV module steel support structures, electrical inverters and transformers, an electrical substation and switchyard, buried electrical collection conduit, an operations and maintenance building, on-site access roads, and security fencing. The Draft EIR comment period for the Tranquillity Solar Generating Facility closed on July 7, 2014.

Westlands Solar Park. The proposed Westlands Solar Park (WSP) Master Plan and Related Transmission Facilities project would consist of: 1) Westlands Solar Park Generating Facilities; 2) Henrietta-Gates Transmission Upgrades, connecting WSP and the Gates Substation;

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3) Westlands Transmission Corridor, connecting Gates and Los Banos Substations; and 4) Helm to Gregg Transmission Corridor, connecting Gates and Gregg Substations via the southern segment of the Westlands Transmission Corridor. The WSP Generating Facilities would include a 2,400 MW solar PV facility located on 24,000 acres in western Fresno and Kings Counties, approximately 30 miles northeast of the project site. The Notice of Preparation for the Westlands Solar Park was issued March 15, 2013 and the EIR is currently in process.

5.2.3 Cumulative Impact Analysis Methodology

The area within which a cumulative effect can occur varies by resource. For example, air quality impacts tend to disperse over a large area, while soils hazards impacts are typically more localized. For this reason, the geographic scope for the analysis of cumulative impacts must be identified for each resource area.

The analysis of cumulative effects considers a number of variables including geographic (spatial) limits, time (temporal) limits, and the characteristics of the resource being evaluated. The geographic scope of each analysis is based on the topography surrounding the proposed California Flats Solar Project and the natural boundaries of the resource affected, rather than jurisdictional boundaries. The geographic scope of cumulative effects will often extend beyond the scope of the direct effects, but not beyond the scope of the direct and indirect effects of the California Flats Solar Project. The geographic extent and cumulative impact analysis for each individual issue area is included in the respective discussions in Sections 4.1 through 4.14 of this EIR.

In addition, each cumulative project has its own implementation schedule, which may or may not coincide or overlap with the California Flats Solar Project schedule. However, to be conservative, the cumulative analysis assumes that all projects in the cumulative scenario are built and operating during the operating lifetime of the proposed California Flats Solar Project. Because the majority of the projects identified in Table 5-1 would include only minor construction and renovation if any, the cumulative analysis presented here focuses primarily on the cumulative impacts of the proposed project with the solar projects described in Section 5.2.2.

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