TimTim HortonsHortons Inc.Inc. BearBear StearnsStearns 14th Annual Retail, Restaurants & Consumer Conference Today’s Presentation
IntroductionsIntroductions –– ScottScott BonikowskyBonikowsky
SectorSector OutlookOutlook andand TimTim HortonsHortons StrategyStrategy forfor GrowthGrowth PaulPaul HouseHouse,, ExecutiveExecutive ChairmanChairman
BusinessBusiness ModelModel andand CompetitiveCompetitive AdvantagesAdvantages DonDon SchroederSchroeder,, PresidentPresident andand CEOCEO
FinancialFinancial OverviewOverview andand 20082008 TargetsTargets CynthiaCynthia DevineDevine,, ExecutiveExecutive VPVP && ChiefChief FinancialFinancial OfficerOfficer
2 Safe Harbor Statement
CertainCertain statementsstatements inin thisthis presentationpresentation andand ourour reresponsesponse toto variousvarious questionsquestions maymay constituteconstitute “forward-“forward- lookinglooking statements”statements” withinwithin thethe meaninmeaningg ofof thethe U.S.U.S. PrivatePrivate SecuritiesSecurities LitigationLitigation ReformReform ActAct ofof 19951995 andand applicableapplicable CanadianCanadian securitiessecurities law.law. SuchSuch forward-loforward-lookingoking statementsstatements areare basedbased onon currentcurrent expectationsexpectations andand involveinvolve certaincertain risksrisks andand uncertainties.uncertainties. ActualActual resultsresults mightmight differdiffer materiallymaterially fromfrom thosethose projectedprojected inin thethe forward-lookingforward-looking statements.statements. InIn somesome cases,cases, informationinformation regardingregarding certaincertain importantimportant factorsfactors thatthat couldcould causecause actualactual resultsresults toto differdiffer materiallymaterially fromfrom anyany susuchch forward-lookingforward-looking statementstatement appearsappears oror isis discusseddiscussed togethertogether withwith suchsuch statements.statements. AdditiAdditionalonal informationinformation concerningconcerning factorsfactors thatthat couldcould causecause actualactual resultsresults toto differdiffer materiallymaterially fromfrom thosethose inin thethe forward-lookingforward-looking ststatementsatements isis containedcontained inin thethe mostmost recentrecent FormForm 10-K10-K filedfiled FebruaryFebruary 26,26, 2008,2008, presspress releasesreleases andand otherother filifilingsngs withwith thethe SecuritiesSecurities anandd ExchangeExchange CommissionCommission andand CanadianCanadian securitiessecurities regulators.regulators. InIn particular,particular, thethe fafactorsctors describeddescribed underunder ‘‘Risk‘‘Risk Factors’’Factors’’ inin the Form 10-K andand otherother possiblepossible factorsfactors notnot listedlisted,, couldcould affectaffect ourour actualactual resultsresults andand causecause suchsuch resultsresults toto differdiffer materiallymaterially fromfrom thosethose expressedexpressed inin forward-lookingforward-looking statements.statements.
ManyMany ofof thethe factorsfactors thatthat willwill determinedetermine ourour futurefuture perfperformanceormance areare beyondbeyond ourour abilityability toto controlcontrol oror predict.predict. YouYou areare cautionedcautioned notnot toto putput undueundue reliancereliance onon anyany foforward-lookingrward-looking statements.statements. ExceptExcept asas requiredrequired byby applicableapplicable securitiessecurities laws,laws, wewe dodo nonott havehave anyany intentionintention oror obligationobligation toto updateupdate forward-lookingforward-looking statementsstatements afterafter thisthis presentation,presentation, eveneven ifif newnew information,information, fufutureture eventsevents oror otherother circumstancescircumstances havehave mademade themthem incorrectincorrect oror misleading.misleading. YouYou cancan reviewreview thethe fullfull tetextxt ofof thethe Company’sCompany’s SafeSafe HarborHarbor StatementStatement onon ourour websitewebsite atat www.timhortons.com/safeharbor.html.www.timhortons.com/safeharbor.html.
ThisThis presentationpresentation referencesreferences Non-GAAPNon-GAAP financialfinancial ininformation.formation. ReconciliationReconciliation informationinformation toto thethe mostmost directlydirectly comparablecomparable GAAPGAAP financialfinancial measuremeasure isis includedincluded inin thisthis presentationpresentation andand isis postedposted onon ourour web-site,web-site, asas requiredrequired byby RegulationRegulation G,G, underunder thethe investorinvestor information/presentationsinformation/presentations tabs.tabs.
3 4 Investment Summary
ProvenProven businessbusiness modelmodel thatthat createscreates competitivecompetitive advantageadvantage andand generatesgenerates severalseveral earningsearnings streams.streams.
IconicIconic brandbrand statusstatus andand marketmarket shareshare leadershipleadership inin Canada,Canada, withwith aa growinggrowing regionalregional presencepresence inin targetedtargeted corecore northeastnortheast andand midwestmidwest marketsmarkets inin thethe US.US.
StrongStrong financialfinancial performanceperformance andand cashcash flowflow overover long-long- periodsperiods ofof time.time.
Same-storeSame-store salessales andand unitunit growthgrowth opportunitiesopportunities inin bothboth thethe CanadianCanadian andand USUS segments.segments.
5 2007 Corporate & Performance Highlights
RecordRecord revenuesrevenues andand earningsearnings
GuelphGuelph distributiondistribution centrecentre rolloutrollout completed,completed, providingproviding 3-3- channelchannel deliverydelivery toto 85%85% ofof OntarioOntario restaurantsrestaurants
ShareholderShareholder valuevalue creationcreation programsprograms C$200C$200 millionmillion shareshare repurchaserepurchase programprogram 28.6%28.6% increaseincrease inin quarterlyquarterly dividenddividend announcedannounced forfor 20082008
6 2008 sector outlook is challenging…. ….but Tim Hortons is well positioned
ChallengingChallenging economiceconomic situationsituation facingfacing QSRQSR // fastfast casualcasual sector,sector, particularlyparticularly inin thethe US,US, inin firstfirst halfhalf ofof 2008.2008.
IntensifiedIntensified competitivecompetitive discountingdiscounting activitiesactivities acrossacross thethe USUS restaurantrestaurant sectorsector toto boostboost traffic.traffic.
WeWe havehave performedperformed wellwell inin goodgood timestimes andand bad,bad, andand considerconsider ourselvesourselves relativelyrelatively wellwell positioned.positioned. PricePrice // qualityquality valuevalue positionposition FinancialFinancial positionposition andand layeredlayered incomeincome streamsstreams •• Franchisee Franchisee recruitmentrecruitment andand realreal estateestate opportunitiesopportunities
7 Proven performance over the long-term
15-Year Canadian Same-Store Sales Performance 1212 Tim Hortons US 10-Year Average 10.510.5 Same-Store Sales Growth is 8.5% 10.210.2 1010 9.19.1 7.97.9 7.87.8 88 7.77.7 7.47.4 7.57.5 7.27.2 5.9 5.55.5 5.9 66 5.25.2 5.25.2 4.74.7 4.84.8 3.93.9 44
22
00 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
8 Executing our core growth strategies
9 Same-Store Sales Growth Drivers
ProductProduct innovationinnovation BreakfastBreakfast dayday partpart LunchLunch dayday partpart –– hot hot signaturesignature sandwichsandwich
EmphasisEmphasis onon overalloverall customercustomer experienceexperience andand speedspeed ofof serviceservice
BrandBrand awarenessawareness andand loyaltyloyalty
10 Unit Expansion: Consistent Restaurant Growth Total Units Systemwide
98% Franchised
3,221 3,047 2,885 2,721 2,527 2,348 2,163
As of December 30, 2007 11 Unit Growth – Significant Canadian opportunities Current Restaurant Penetration
2,8232,823 restaurantsrestaurants 99%99% franchisedfranchised
WEST Total Units 578 Population / Unit 16,616 ATLANTIC Total Units 366 QUEBEC Population / Unit 6,407 Total Units 358 Population / Unit 20,977
ONTARIO Total Units 1,521 Population / Unit 8,083 As of December 30, 2007
12 “We Fit Anywhere” 3,500-4,000 unit potential in Canada
Standard Restaurants Non-Standard Restaurants
Health Care 10% Retail Education 10% Opportunity: 15% Offices 7% Western provinces Quebec Urban centres
2007 Percentage of non-standard units
13 70 million consumers in our US markets Tim Hortons US
398398 restaurantsrestaurants 89%89% franchisedfranchised Maine 24
Upstate New York Michigan 103 98 Massachusetts, Erie, PA Connecticut & Ohio 5 Rhode Island 94 66
Kentucky & W. Virginia 8
As of December 30, 2007 14 Average unit sales volumes have historically experienced positive trending over time
TimTim HortonsHortons USUS TimTim HortonsHortons CanadaCanada AverageAverage salessales perper AverageAverage salessales perper standardstandard restaurantrestaurant standardstandard restaurantrestaurant
(000’s) (000’s)
US figures in US currency 15 Innovation Agenda
16 17 BusinessBusiness overviewoverview
VerticalVertical integrationintegration asas aa corecore strategystrategy
CoffeeCoffee buyingbuying capabilitycapability
TimTim HortonsHortons marketmarket positionposition
18 Franchising is the core of our system: Our model generates several earnings streams
% of restaurants franchised % of revenues for fiscal year 2007
98%98%
9393
29% 88 88 66%
5% 8080
7878 Sales / Distribution Rent & Royalties 7878 Franchise Fees
7474
6666 Source: Company research, 2007 19 Time-tested business model
Multiple Earning Layers
The Tim Hortons business model is time-tested and different than most QSR companies. This model has created a long history of growth and performance.
Real Estate Franchising Vertical Integration
Primary formula is rent Primary formula is •5 Distribution Centers based on % of sales* royalties based on % of •Coffee Roaster − 10% ‐ Canada sales •Maidstone Bakeries (JV) − 8.5% ‐ US − 3% ‐ Canada •Fondant and fills − 4.5% ‐ US manufacturing
* Rent owed to Tim Hortons when franchisee leases from Tim Hortons.
20 Vertical integration framework
Systemwide Benefits
Technology Profitability / Returns Protection
Scale
21 Current Vertical Integration Capabilities
Distribution •5 Distribution Centers, four shipping dry goods and one shipping 3‐channel (dry / frozen/ refrigerated) •260,000 square feet of distribution capacity
Bakery •Joint Venture Maidstone Bakeries •Proprietary technologies •Par‐baked donuts, Timbits©, selected breads and pastries
Coffee Roaster •Supplies about 45% of chain‐wide needs •Quality assurance •Industry knowledge and expertise
Fondant and Fills •Fruition Fruit fondant and fills facility acquired in 2003 •Sole supplier of ready‐to‐use glaze on a number of Always Fresh products
22 Guelph 3-Channel Restaurant Coverage
23 Coffee Buying
Tim Hortons is one of the world’s largest buyers of premium Central American Arabica coffee beans
24 Buying Philosophy
TimTim HortonsHortons buysbuys onlyonly premiumpremium ArabicaArabica coffeecoffee beansbeans similarsimilar toto otherother premiumpremium coffeecoffee players.players.
WeWe taketake aa neutralneutral viewview ofof tradingtrading inin thethe coffeecoffee marketmarket andand areare notnot speculators.speculators. WeWe buybuy outout traditionallytraditionally onon aa half-yearhalf-year basisbasis toto protectprotect usus andand ourour franchisees.franchisees.
RiskRisk ManagementManagement WeWe don’tdon’t keepkeep allall ourour eggseggs inin oneone basketbasket ConsumersConsumers becomebecome accustomedaccustomed toto flavorflavor andand don’tdon’t likelike changechange
25 NY “C” MARKET
26 Compelling market positioning
FourthFourth largestlargest publicly-tradedpublicly-traded NorthNorth AmericanAmerican QSRQSR chainchain AccountAccount forfor aboutabout 42%42% ofof QSRQSR sectorsector traffictraffic inin CanadaCanada MoreMore thanthan 80%80% shareshare ofof coffee,coffee, donut,donut, gourmetgourmet coffeecoffee andand teatea sectorsector #1#1 marketmarket shareshare inin breakfastbreakfast dayday partpart andand #2#2 shareshare inin lunchlunch dayday partpart
About 40% of our customers visit 4+ times each week
* NPD Group as of May 2007 27 Canadian QSR: Canada - Top Operators %Share of QSR Traffic, May 2007
Tim Hortons 42.5 McDonald's 13.9 Subway 4.3 Total Independents 4.2 Starbucks 3.2 A&W 2.8 Wendy's 2.7 Dairy Queen 2.7 KFC 2.4 Second Cup 1.7
Source: NPD Group 28 QSR Coffee Donut/ Gourmet Coffee/Tea: Canada - Top Operators
%Share of QSR Coffee / Donut/ Gourmet Coffee/ Tea Traffic, May 2007
Tim Hortons 80.0 Starbucks 6.0 Second Cup 3.3 Coffee Time 3.1 Country Style 1.8 Total Independents 1.4 Timothy's 1.0 Williams Coffee Pub 0.6 Robin's Donuts 0.2 Dunkin' Donuts 0.1 Cafe Depot 0.1 A.L. VanHoutte 0.1 Treats 0.1
Source: NPD Group YE May 2007 Total Canada Preliminary Data Subject To Change 29 30 Powerful Track Record of Growth
Revenues Operating Income (C$ millions) (C$ millions)
CAGR: CAGR: 12.3% 12.7% $1,896 $425 $1,660 $379 $1,482 $343* $1,338 $319 $1,172 $279 $53 $1,060 $233 $290
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006 2007
* Including pretax non-cash impairment charges of $53.1 million, 2005 Operating Income was $290 million. Adjusting to add back the impairment charge, 2005 operating income would have been $343 million. operating income would have been $343 million. 31 2007 Performance
StrongStrong top-linetop-line performanceperformance inin 20072007 CanadianCanadian same-storesame-store salessales upup 5.9%5.9% USUS same-storesame-store salessales upup 4.1%4.1% RevenuesRevenues upup 14%14% OperatingOperating incomeincome upup 12%12%
198198 storesstores openedopened includingincluding 130130 inin CanadaCanada andand 6868 inin thethe USUS Capital Structure
CapitalCapital structurestructure isis sufficientsufficient toto supportsupport short-termshort-term businessbusiness needsneeds DebtDebt currentlycurrently consistsconsists primarilyprimarily ofof $300$300 million,million, five-yearfive-year termterm loanloan maturingmaturing inin 2011.2011. AlsoAlso havehave U.S.U.S. $100$100 millionmillion revolverrevolver andand $200$200 millionmillion CanadianCanadian revolver,revolver, bothboth undrawnundrawn CanCan obtainobtain additionaladditional liquidityliquidity ifif necessarynecessary
DividendDividend policypolicy ofof upup toto 20-25%20-25% ofof annualannual normalizednormalized prior-yearprior-year netnet income:income: announcedannounced 28.6%28.6% increaseincrease toto dividenddividend raterate toto $0.09$0.09 perper shareshare forfor 20082008
ShareShare repurchaserepurchase authorizationauthorization NewNew C$200C$200 programprogram announcedannounced inin Q4Q4 2007,2007, followingfollowing completioncompletion ofof thethe 2006-20072006-2007 $200$200 millionmillion programprogram
33 2008 Targets*
StrongStrong top-linetop-line revenuerevenue growthgrowth Same-storeSame-store salessales targetstargets •• Canada: Canada: 4-6% 4-6% •• U.S.: U.S.: 2-4%2-4%
NewNew restaurantrestaurant developmentdevelopment •• Canada: Canada: 120-140 120-140 •• U.S.: U.S.: 90-110* 90-110*
OperatingOperating incomeincome growthgrowth ofof approximatelyapproximately 10%10%
CAPEXCAPEX ofof $200-250$200-250 million,million, taxtax raterate ofof 33-35%33-35%
* Includes potentially self-serve kiosk units announced previously. Targets announced February 20, 2008 and not updated. Refer to the Company’s public filings for current information. 34