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Elections in Nigeria: Buhari's Victory and Its Challenges for the Future

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Elections in Nigeria: Buhari's Victory and Its Challenges for the Future Analysis Document 20/2015 April 9, 2015 Jesús Díez Alcalde ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: BUHARI’S VICTORY AND ITS CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE Visit WEB Receive Newsletter This document has been translated by a Translation and Interpreting Degree student doing work experience, MARÍA SANTOS, under the auspices of the Collaboration Agreement between the Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid, and the Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies. ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: BUHARI’S VICTORY AND ITS CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE Abstract: Following the presidential elections held on 28 and 29 March in Nigeria, the democratic victory of Muslim Muhammadu Buhari is encouraging news, and has meant the first peaceful alternation of power in the African largest economic and demographic power. At the moment, despite many detractors, there is a palpable optimism in the country. "Our nation faces many challenges: insecurity, corruption of elect president, economic decline”, said the elect president on his first speech after the elections. “I promise to do my best to address these problems”. After May 29, when the official relay takes place, Buhari will have to show that, besides his intention, he is capable to make his promises come true. So far, more than 12 million Nigerians trust Buhari, but it would be very detrimental that Nigeria had to wait too long to see such words put into practice. Resumen: Tras las elecciones presidenciales celebradas el 28 y 29 de marzo en Nigeria, el triunfo democrático del musulmán Muhammadu Buhari es una noticia esperanzadora, porque, ha supuesto la primera alternancia pacífica en el poder en la primera potencia económica y demográfica de África. Por el momento, y a pesar de que el presidente electo cuenta con millones de detractores, existe un palpable optimismo en el país. «Nuestra nación se enfrenta a muchos desafíos: la inseguridad, la corrupción, el deterioro económico –declaró el presidente electo en su primer discurso tras los comicios–. Me comprometo a dar mi mejor esfuerzo para hacer frente a estos problemas». A partir del 29 de mayo, cuando se produzca el relevo oficial, tendrá que demostrar que, además de esta intención, también tiene la capacidad para hacerla realidad. Por el momento, más de 12 millones de nigerianos han confiado en que podrá cambiar muchas cosas, pero sería muy perjudicial que toda Nigeria tuviese que esperar demasiado tiempo para comprobar que se trata de algo más que palabras. Documento de Análisis 20/2015 1 ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: BUHARI’S VICTORY AND ITS CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE Jesús Díez Alcalde Keywords: Nigeria, Jonathan, Buhari, presidential elections, Boko Haram, social, economic and security crises, challenges. Palabras clave: Nigeria, Jonathan, Buhari, elecciones presidenciales, Boko Haram, crisis económica y de seguridad, desafíos. Documento de Análisis 20/2015 2 ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: BUHARI’S VICTORY AND ITS CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE Jesús Díez Alcalde «Africa is the continent with the most potential, the least development and the greatest underused human talent and neglected potential. Nigeria is the big one: The gateway to Africa’s future». Richard Dowden, Executive Director Royal African Society1. INTRODUCTION: HISTORICAL ELECTIONS On March 28 and 29, Nigeria held democratic elections. Muslim Muhammadu Buhari, head of All Progressives Congress2, was elected president of the first African power. Such event had a great impact both inside and outside the country, since it is taking place in one of the most tumultuous periods since the establishment of democracy in 1999. Fortunately, polling days proceeded without violence mostly in all 36 Nigerian states, except for the northwestern region, where Boko Haram killed at least 41 people and scared hundreds of voters from polling stations3. Nevertheless, and spite of its despicable effort, Boko Haram did not succeed in boycotting the electoral process, thanks to the strong presence of military forces, and the Nigerians’ strong determination to be heard in such significant polls for their country. However, almost 30 million Nigerians went to the polls during these two days —15.4 million voted for Buhari, while 12.9 million chose to reelect Christian President Goodluck Jonathan, leader of People’s Democratic Party. As forecasts predicted, electoral results have been very narrow and have left many positive lessons for history, as well as a tangible optimism among Nigerians and a few reasons to believe that Buhari will work on the country’s stability. Stability in Nigeria is necessary for the region and the whole African continent. In Buhari’s words, “we have shown the world that we are people who have embraced democracy, who are seeking for a Government for the people, by the people and of the people.” Such process could become an example for other African nations. During the electoral campaign, and especially after the elections were postponed due to Boko Haram’s attacks, insecurity has flown across such a relevant political process. Nevertheless, elections have been free, fair and pacific, as Jonathan risked promising, and results have democratically changed power in Nigeria for the first time. To a large extent, both candidates’ attitude towards the results has been decisive for preventing violence among voters, unlike what happened in the 2011 elections. Back then, conflicts in several northern regions in Nigeria resulted in over 800 casualties. Jonathan’s forcefulness after his 1 Dowden, R. Why Nigeria’s election really matters. African Arguments, 27/03/15. Available in http://africanarguments.org/2015/03/27/why-nigerias-election-really-matters-by-richard-dowden/. Consulted in: 03/04/15. 2 All Progressives Congress (APC) was founded in February 2013, as a result of the política alliance between the three largest oposition parties: Action Congress of Nigeria, Congress for Progressive Change and All Nigeria People’s Party, as well as a faction of Progressive Peoples Alliance. 3 Boko Haram attempts to sow chaos amid Nigeria elections. CBS News, 29/03/15. Available in http://www.cbsnews.com/news/boko-haram-attempts-to-sow-chaos-amid-nigeria-elections/. Consulted in: 07/04/15 Documento de Análisis 20/2015 3 ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: BUHARI’S VICTORY AND ITS CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE Jesús Díez Alcalde defeat —“nobody’s ambition is worth the blood of any Nigerian”4, and Buhari’s peaceful spirit as the winner —“I extend a hand of friendship and conciliation to President Jonathan” — calmed the first confrontations among their supporters and sealed an electoral process that must remain in the collective memory of Nigerians. Electoral results: controlling parties by state At ground level, all international observers, such as the United Nations, the African Union or the European Union, among other countries and organizations, supported these presidential elections for their transparency. Internationally, world leaders congratulated Nigerian politicians, mainly because of their democratic spirit. The Secretary General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon emphasized that “the successful conduct of these polls is a testament to the maturity of Nigeria's democracy5“; President Obama extended his congratulations to “the people of Nigeria and to President-Elect Buhari and look forward to continuing to work with the newly-elected government on our many shared priorities6”; and, finally, High 4 President Jonathan official speech after 2015 elections «Jonathan thanks Nigerians, asks PDP members not to despair», Premium Times, 01/04/15. Available in http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/180417- jonathan-thanks-nigerians-asks-pdp-members-not-to-despair.html. Consulted in: 04/04/15. 5 In phone call, UN chief congratulates Nigeria’s President-elect Buhari. UN News Center, 01/04/15. Available in http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=50473#.VSR20JNGTLU Consulted in: 03/04/15. 6 Jackson, D. Obama congratulates Nigeria on election. USA Today, 01/04/15. Available in http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2015/04/01/obama-nigeria-goodluck-jonathan-muhammadu- buhari/70761982/. Consulted in: 03/04/15. Documento de Análisis 20/2015 4 ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: BUHARI’S VICTORY AND ITS CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE Jesús Díez Alcalde Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini paid tribute “to all those involved in making the election peaceful, transparent and credible (…). They have shown how a democracy can work7”. Beyond the possible interpretations of the data given above about Buhari and Jonathan, it is convenient to analyse other aspects that will surely have a further projection and influence on Nigeria’s future. First, the reasons why Jonathan was not reelected when he was initially emerging as the winner will be taken into account. Second, Buhari’s political past and ideology will be analyzed, as well as his proposals to solve the structural, social and security problems that Nigeria is facing. Finally, an analysis of the challenges that Buhari will be facing when he becomes President on May 29 will be considered. These are key questions to evaluate the great effort that Nigeria should make if it is to guarantee, in the long run, a more democratic, developed and safer future for its citizens. In addition to political capacity and will, regional and international cooperation will also have greater participation in the future. 7 Statement by High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini on the presidential elections in Nigeria. Servicio Exterior de la Unión Europea, 31/03/15. Available in http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements- eeas/2015/150331_03_en.htm. Consulted in: 02/04/15. Documento de Análisis 20/2015 5 ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: BUHARI’S VICTORY AND ITS CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE Jesús Díez Alcalde WHY DID PRESIDENT JONATHAN LOSE REELECTION? A few days before elections, Buhari’s triumph was considered to be impossible due to President Jonathan’s strength, since polls gave the latter a large edge over the former8. However, elections were postponed for six weeks, according to the decision made by the Independent National Electoral Commission and due to insecurity in the northeastern regions of Nigeria9, which seems to have favored Buhari.
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