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Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing in the Online Aerosol Coupled CAS
atmosphere Article Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing in the Online Aerosol Coupled CAS-FGOALS-f3-L Climate Model Hao Wang 1,2,3, Tie Dai 1,2,* , Min Zhao 1,2,3, Daisuke Goto 4, Qing Bao 1, Toshihiko Takemura 5 , Teruyuki Nakajima 4 and Guangyu Shi 1,2,3 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; [email protected] (H.W.); [email protected] (M.Z.); [email protected] (Q.B.); [email protected] (G.S.) 2 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China 3 College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 4 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan; [email protected] (D.G.); [email protected] (T.N.) 5 Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-10-8299-5452 Received: 21 September 2020; Accepted: 14 October 2020; Published: 17 October 2020 Abstract: The effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol can be more representative of the eventual climate response than other radiative forcing. We incorporate aerosol–cloud interaction into the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System (CAS-FGOALS-f3-L) by coupling an existing aerosol module named the Spectral Radiation Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS) and quantified the ERF and its primary components (i.e., effective radiative forcing of aerosol-radiation interactions (ERFari) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci)) based on the protocol of current Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). -
Climate Fiction
CLIMATE FICTION Instructor: Christopher A. Walker Course Number: EN/ES 337 Lecture: MW 2:30-3:45 in Miller 319 Office Hours: Mondays 4:00-6:00 (and by appointment) in Miller 216 Mailbox: Miller 216 Email: [email protected] Course Description Contemporary fiction is now investigating the possibilities and limits of story-telling in the era of global climate change. These works, referred to as “climate fiction” or “cli-fi,” explore humanity’s connection to- and impact upon Earth by asking questions such as: what will human and nonhuman communities look like after sea-level rise, desertification, and biodiversity loss remap our planet?; how might species evolve in response to ecological collapse?; what affects— melancholy, despair, hope—will eulogize a lost home-world? Reading cli-fi novels, short stories, poetry, and film, this course will situate our texts within the Environmental Humanities, an interdisciplinary field that combines scientific and cultural discourses about the environment with humanistic concerns for social justice. Working through the narrative conventions of the utopian, dystopian, and apocalyptic genres, we will ask how cli- fi not only narrates impending disaster on a global scale but also strives to imagine a more just future, one that combines environmentalism and social equality. These texts will be paired with excerpts from philosophical and ecocritical writings which will aid our development of the humanistic methodologies needed to analyze and appreciate this new genre. Course Materials Items with an asterisk (*) on reserve in Miller Library. Books to purchase: (Available at The Colby Bookstore) Margaret Atwood, Oryx and Crake (ISBN 978-0-385-72167-7) (2003) * J. -
The End of the World? Christian Apocalyptic and Responses to Climate Change
The End of the World? Christian apocalyptic and responses to climate change. Revd Gethin Rhys, Policy Officer, Cytûn (Churches together in Wales) Delivered as the Gethin Abraham-Williams Memorial Lecture on Zoom, 20 May 2021. Revised for publication 8 June 2021. Introduction I am extremely grateful to Cytûn for extending to me the privilege of delivering this year's Gethin Abraham-Williams Memorial Lecture. I had the pleasure of being Assistant General Secretary to Gethin for about eighteen months - a period characterized in the Cytûn office by the confusion every time Sasha shouted "Gethin!" and we would both respond! Wales was privileged to have the service of an ecumenist as dedicated as Gethin for so long; we still greatly miss his wisdom and breadth of vision. Lecturing in his name is a real privilege. One of his virtues was being able to relate theology to the secular questions of the time. I am attempting here to do that for the biggest question of our time, the climate crisis. I want to take this opportunity to acknowledge with grateful thanks the many conversations I have had which have helped me make those connections. In particular, two groups of people of which I have been part. Firstly, the members of the online course in summer 2020 entitled Climate Crisis, Averting Chaos in a Warming World, led by Feyzi Ismail at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. And secondly the Cardiff and Penarth United Reformed Church Pastorate Bible Study group, which has during 2021 been studying the Book of Revelation, led by our minister Revd David Dean. -
Short- and Long-Term Greenhouse Gas and Radiative Forcing Impacts of Changing Water Management in Asian Rice Paddies
Global Change Biology (2004) 10, 1180–1196, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00798.x Short- and long-term greenhouse gas and radiative forcing impacts of changing water management in Asian rice paddies STEVE FROLKING*,CHANGSHENGLI*, ROB BRASWELL* andJAN FUGLESTVEDTw *Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, & Space, 39 College Road, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA, wCICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo, PO Box 1129, Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway Abstract Fertilized rice paddy soils emit methane while flooded, emit nitrous oxide during flooding and draining transitions, and can be a source or sink of carbon dioxide. Changing water management of rice paddies can affect net emissions of all three of these greenhouse gases. We used denitrification–decomposition (DNDC), a process-based biogeochemistry model, to evaluate the annual emissions of CH4,N2O, and CO2 for continuously flooded, single-, double-, and triple-cropped rice (three baseline scenarios), and in further simulations, the change in emissions with changing water management to midseason draining of the paddies, and to alternating crops of midseason drained rice and upland crops (two alternatives for each baseline scenario). We used a set of first- order atmospheric models to track the atmospheric burden of each gas over 500 years. We evaluated the dynamics of the radiative forcing due to the changes in emissions of CH4, N2O, and CO2 (alternative minus baseline), and compared these with standard calculations of CO2-equivalent emissions using global warming potentials (GWPs). All alternative scenarios had lower CH4 emissions and higher N2O emissions than their corresponding baseline cases, and all but one sequestered carbon in the soil more slowly. -
Download the Course
Architecture Climate Change & Society Buell Center 2020 Course Development Prize Sara Stevens, Adam Rysanek, and Kees Lokman University of British Columbia CHANGING MINDS FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE Co-taught by a historian, a landscape architect, and a building scientist, this course proposes that design thinking has the potential to reframe the wicked problem of climate change. Weekly structured debates will pose provocations based on a set of historical and contemporary episodes and contested landscapes that position the designer in relation to societal change. Students assignments (Debate, Review, Conceive, and Impact) will analyze case studies in order to reimagine the relationship between design and climate change. Divided into modules that highlight different perspectives, the class will include lectures, workshops, and collective assignments intended to produce a small exhibition. Columbia University’s Temple Hoyne Buell Center for the Study of American Architecture Association of Collegiate Schools of Architecture Changing Minds for a Changing Climate Proposal for a graduate course in architecture, landscape architecture, and urban design Sara Stevens / Adam Rysanek / Kees Lokman School of Architecture and Landscape Architecture, University of British Columbia, Vancouver “If you care about the planet, and about the people and animals who live on it, there are two ways to think about [climate change]. You can keep on hoping that catastrophe is preventable, and feel ever more frustrated or enraged by the world’s inaction. Or you can accept that disaster is coming, and begin to rethink what it means to have hope.” — Jonathan Franzen, “What If We Stopped Pretending?” New Yorker, 8 September 2019 Franzen frames the problem of the climate apocalypse by pointing out the misalignment of rhetoric (stop climate change!) and evidence (it’s unstoppable!). -
U:\2020\The Devastating Health Impacts of Climate
THE DEVASTATING HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND REFORM HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION AUGUST 5, 2020 Serial No. 116–111 Printed for the use of the Committee on Oversight and Reform ( Available on: govinfo.gov, oversight.house.gov or docs.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 41–911 PDF WASHINGTON : 2020 COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND REFORM CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York, Chairwoman ELEANOR HOLMES NORTON, District of JAMES COMER, Kentucky, Ranking Minority Columbia Member WM. LACY CLAY, Missouri JIM JORDAN, Ohio STEPHEN F. LYNCH, Massachusetts PAUL A. GOSAR, Arizona JIM COOPER, Tennessee VIRGINIA FOXX, North Carolina GERALD E. CONNOLLY, Virginia THOMAS MASSIE, Kentucky RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI, Illinois JODY B. HICE, Georgia JAMIE RASKIN, Maryland GLENN GROTHMAN, Wisconsin HARLEY ROUDA, California GARY PALMER, Alabama RO KHANNA, California MICHAEL CLOUD, Texas KWEISI MFUME, Maryland BOB GIBBS, Ohio DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ, Florida CLAY HIGGINS, Louisiana JOHN P. SARBANES, Maryland RALPH NORMAN, South Carolina PETER WELCH, Vermont CHIP ROY, Texas JACKIE SPEIER, California CAROL D. MILLER, West Virginia ROBIN L. KELLY, Illinois MARK E. GREEN, Tennessee MARK DESAULNIER, California KELLY ARMSTRONG, North Dakota BRENDA L. LAWRENCE, Michigan W. GREGORY STEUBE, Florida STACEY E. PLASKETT, Virgin Islands FRED KELLER, Pennsylvania JIMMY GOMEZ, California ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ, New York AYANNA PRESSLEY, Massachusetts RASHIDA TLAIB, Michigan KATIE PORTER, California DAVID RAPALLO, Staff Director BRITTENY JENKINS, Chief Counsel ELISA LANIER, Clerk CONTACT NUMBER: 202-225-5051 CHRISTOPHER HIXON, Minority Staff Director (II) CONTENTS Page Hearing held on August 5, 2020 ............................................................................. 1 WITNESSES Dr. Drew Shindell, Nicholas Distinguished Professor of Earth Science, Duke University Oral Statement ................................................................................................ -
Chapter 1 Ozone and Climate
1 Ozone and Climate: A Review of Interconnections Coordinating Lead Authors John Pyle (UK), Theodore Shepherd (Canada) Lead Authors Gregory Bodeker (New Zealand), Pablo Canziani (Argentina), Martin Dameris (Germany), Piers Forster (UK), Aleksandr Gruzdev (Russia), Rolf Müller (Germany), Nzioka John Muthama (Kenya), Giovanni Pitari (Italy), William Randel (USA) Contributing Authors Vitali Fioletov (Canada), Jens-Uwe Grooß (Germany), Stephen Montzka (USA), Paul Newman (USA), Larry Thomason (USA), Guus Velders (The Netherlands) Review Editors Mack McFarland (USA) IPCC Boek (dik).indb 83 15-08-2005 10:52:13 84 IPCC/TEAP Special Report: Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 85 1.4 Past and future stratospheric ozone changes (attribution and prediction) 110 1.1 Introduction 87 1.4.1 Current understanding of past ozone 1.1.1 Purpose and scope of this chapter 87 changes 110 1.1.2 Ozone in the atmosphere and its role in 1.4.2 The Montreal Protocol, future ozone climate 87 changes and their links to climate 117 1.1.3 Chapter outline 93 1.5 Climate change from ODSs, their substitutes 1.2 Observed changes in the stratosphere 93 and ozone depletion 120 1.2.1 Observed changes in stratospheric ozone 93 1.5.1 Radiative forcing and climate sensitivity 120 1.2.2 Observed changes in ODSs 96 1.5.2 Direct radiative forcing of ODSs and their 1.2.3 Observed changes in stratospheric aerosols, substitutes 121 water vapour, methane and nitrous oxide 96 1.5.3 Indirect radiative forcing of ODSs 123 1.2.4 Observed temperature -
The Use of Non-CO2 Multipliers for the Climate Impact of Aviation: the Scientific Basis
Workshop on Aviation and Carbon Markets ICAO Headquarters Montreal, Quebec 18-19 June 2008 The use of non-CO2 multipliers for the climate impact of aviation: The scientific basis by Dr. David W. Fahey Earth System Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, Colorado USA Introduction Outline Aviation and climate change radiative forcings The multiplier concept and limitations Conclusions & recommendations 1 Introduction Aviation contributes to climate change by increasing atmospheric radiative forcing through the emission of gases and aerosols and changing cloud abundance. Radiative forcing is a change in the balance of solar and terrestrial radiation in Earth’s atmosphere. IPCC, AR4 (2007) 2 1 Aviation and climate change Adapted from Wuebbles et al., 2007 3 Aviation and climate change CO2 Non-CO2 The non-CO2 multiplier is an effort to simplify the accounting of aviation climate forcing from effects other than CO2 accumulation. Adapted from Wuebbles et al., 2007 4 2 Global radiative forcing components (1750 - 2005) * Cooling Warming Aviation represents 3% (range 2 - 8%) of anthropogenic radiative forcing in 2005 (includes all components except induced cloudiness) * 5 Adapted from IPCC, AR4 (2007) Global radiative forcing components (1750 - 2005) Aviation RF components Aviation represents 3% (range 2 - 8%) of anthropogenic radiative forcing in 2005 *(includes all components except induced cloudiness) Adapted from IPCC, AR4 (2007) 6 3 Aviation radiative forcing components (1750 - 2005) Cooling Warming Aviation radiative forcing components have been quantified with best estimates except for induced cirrus cloudiness which includes aerosol cloud effects. Radiative forcing is a backward-looking metric that integrates over previous aircraft operations (i.e., 1750-2005) and hence is not a suitable metric for future aviation. -
COVID-19 and Online Activism: a Momentum for Radical Change? Written by Julie Uldam and Tina Askanius
COVID-19 and Online Activism: A Momentum for Radical Change? Written by Julie Uldam and Tina Askanius This PDF is auto-generated for reference only. As such, it may contain some conversion errors and/or missing information. For all formal use please refer to the official version on the website, as linked below. COVID-19 and Online Activism: A Momentum for Radical Change? https://www.e-ir.info/2020/08/21/covid-19-and-online-climate-activism-a-momentum-for-radical-change/ JULIE ULDAM AND TINA ASKANIUS, AUG 21 2020 Historically, crises have been seen as opportunities for change. The current crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. For example, the pandemic has brought about calls for rethinking how we organize our everyday lives and society. For climate activists, this has involved calls for using the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to envision, articulate and act on solutions to the climate crisis. In doing so, the climate crisis is articulated both as a larger looming crisis, which will eclipse the COVID-19 crisis, and as connected to social inequalities also exposed by the COVID-19 crisis. Theoretically, this short article draws on critical approaches to crisis and the notion of social imaginaries to capture the ways in which the COVID-19 and climate crises are articulated and collectively imagined, with implications for possibilities for action. Empirically, it draws on observations of online events and activities organized by activist groups and NGOs, Extinction Rebellion, Greenpeace, PUSH and Fridays for Future in Denmark and Sweden. On the basis of preliminary findings of a digital ethnography of the everyday practices of online activism during the first months of the pandemic (March-June 2020), we show how the COVID-19 crisis was articulated as both a window of opportunity for imagining a more sustainable post-corona world and as a challenge for activism. -
Impacts of Biofuels on Climate Change, Water Use, and Land Use MARK A
PUBLIC INTEREST REPORT SUMMER 2011 Impacts of Biofuels on Climate Change, Water Use, and Land Use MARK A. DELUCCHI * INTRODUCTION Governments worldwide are promoting the and land use – because per unit of energy development of biofuels, such as ethanol from produced, biofuels require orders of magnitude corn, biodiesel from soybeans, and ethanol from more land and water than do petroleum wood or grass, in order to reduce dependency transportation fuels – and these impacts should on oil imported from politically unstable be weighed in an overall assessment of the costs regions of the world, spur agricultural and benefits of policies that promote biofuels. development, and reduce the climate impact of fossil fuel combustion. Biofuels have been At the start of each major section, I first discuss promoted as a way to mitigate the climate- the overall metric by which impacts typically are change impacts of energy use because the measured. is overall metric is important carbon in a biofuel comes from the atmosphere, because many analysts use it is a basis for which means that the combustion of a biofuel evaluating and comparing the impacts of biofuels; returns to the atmosphere the amount of hence, the overall metric should be as broad as carbon dioxide (CO2) that was removed by the possible yet still represent what society cares growth of the biomass feedstock. Because CO2 about. I argue that the absence of broad, from the combustion of fossil fuels, such as oil, meaningful metrics for climate-change, water-use, is one of the largest sources of anthropogenic and land-use impacts makes overall evaluations climate-active “greenhouse gases” (GHGs), it difficult. -
Well Below 2 C: Mitigation Strategies for Avoiding Dangerous To
PERSPECTIVE Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes PERSPECTIVE Yangyang Xua,1 and Veerabhadran Ramanathanb,1 Edited by Susan Solomon, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved August 11, 2017 (received for review November 9, 2016) The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agree- ment in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high- impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three- lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the cata- strophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blan- ket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. -
Violent Climate Imaginaries: Science-Fiction- Politics ANN-KATHRIN BENNER / DELF ROTHE / SARA ULLSTRÖM /JOHANNES STRIPPLE | 11/2019 IFSH Research Report #001
RESEARCH REPORT #001 Violent Climate Imaginaries: Science-Fiction- Politics ANN-KATHRIN BENNER / DELF ROTHE / SARA ULLSTRÖM /JOHANNES STRIPPLE | 11/2019 IFSH Research Report #001 2 Violent Climate Imaginaries: Science-Fiction-Politics Table of Contents Abstract 4 Funding 4 Introduction 5 The Futurology of Climate Change 7 Dimensions of Violence 8 Future Climate Imaginaries 10 Desiring Past Futures 14 Modes of Future-Making 16 Modeling Violent Futures 16 Writing Violent Futures 20 Visualizing Violent Futures 23 Explaining the Circulation of Climate Imaginaries 28 Conclusion 30 Endnotes 33 References 34 About the Authors 40 3 IFSH Research Report #001 Abstract There are many ways in which climate futures can be envisioned, such as global and regional climate models, scenarios of future emission trajectories, or pathways and visions of societal transformation. All these anticipatory practices aim to make the climatic future knowable in the present. In so doing, they quite often envision a climatic future that is inherently violent: a future marked by disasters, wars, mass migration, turmoil, and terror. This working paper seeks to explain the popularity and tenacity of such violent imaginaries of (future) climate change in scientific research, popular culture, and political discourse. For this, it asks two interrelated questions: First, how do violent imaginaries of future climate change come about? Second, why and how do these imaginaries circulate and proliferate? To answer these questions, the paper provides a discussion of the concept of “violence” and elaborates how different forms of it are featured in imaginaries of future climate change. On this basis, the paper then traces three different modes of future-making that together produce and reproduce violent climate imaginaries: modeling the future, writing the future, and visualizing the future.