Earth's Global Energy Budget
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Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing in the Online Aerosol Coupled CAS
atmosphere Article Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing in the Online Aerosol Coupled CAS-FGOALS-f3-L Climate Model Hao Wang 1,2,3, Tie Dai 1,2,* , Min Zhao 1,2,3, Daisuke Goto 4, Qing Bao 1, Toshihiko Takemura 5 , Teruyuki Nakajima 4 and Guangyu Shi 1,2,3 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; [email protected] (H.W.); [email protected] (M.Z.); [email protected] (Q.B.); [email protected] (G.S.) 2 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China 3 College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 4 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan; [email protected] (D.G.); [email protected] (T.N.) 5 Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-10-8299-5452 Received: 21 September 2020; Accepted: 14 October 2020; Published: 17 October 2020 Abstract: The effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol can be more representative of the eventual climate response than other radiative forcing. We incorporate aerosol–cloud interaction into the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System (CAS-FGOALS-f3-L) by coupling an existing aerosol module named the Spectral Radiation Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS) and quantified the ERF and its primary components (i.e., effective radiative forcing of aerosol-radiation interactions (ERFari) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci)) based on the protocol of current Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). -
Cryosphere: a Kingdom of Anomalies and Diversity
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6535–6542, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6535-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Cryosphere: a kingdom of anomalies and diversity Vladimir Melnikov1,2,3, Viktor Gennadinik1, Markku Kulmala1,4, Hanna K. Lappalainen1,4,5, Tuukka Petäjä1,4, and Sergej Zilitinkevich1,4,5,6,7,8 1Institute of Cryology, Tyumen State University, Tyumen, Russia 2Industrial University of Tyumen, Tyumen, Russia 3Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Center SB RAS, Tyumen, Russia 4Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland 5Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland 6Faculty of Radio-Physics, University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia 7Faculty of Geography, University of Moscow, Moscow, Russia 8Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Correspondence: Hanna K. Lappalainen (hanna.k.lappalainen@helsinki.fi) Received: 17 November 2017 – Discussion started: 12 January 2018 Revised: 20 March 2018 – Accepted: 26 March 2018 – Published: 8 May 2018 Abstract. The cryosphere of the Earth overlaps with the 1 Introduction atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere over vast areas ◦ with temperatures below 0 C and pronounced H2O phase changes. In spite of its strong variability in space and time, Nowadays the Earth system is facing the so-called “Grand the cryosphere plays the role of a global thermostat, keeping Challenges”. The rapidly growing population needs fresh air the thermal regime on the Earth within rather narrow limits, and water, more food and more energy. Thus humankind suf- affording continuation of the conditions needed for the main- fers from climate change, deterioration of the air, water and tenance of life. -
Short- and Long-Term Greenhouse Gas and Radiative Forcing Impacts of Changing Water Management in Asian Rice Paddies
Global Change Biology (2004) 10, 1180–1196, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00798.x Short- and long-term greenhouse gas and radiative forcing impacts of changing water management in Asian rice paddies STEVE FROLKING*,CHANGSHENGLI*, ROB BRASWELL* andJAN FUGLESTVEDTw *Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, & Space, 39 College Road, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA, wCICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo, PO Box 1129, Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway Abstract Fertilized rice paddy soils emit methane while flooded, emit nitrous oxide during flooding and draining transitions, and can be a source or sink of carbon dioxide. Changing water management of rice paddies can affect net emissions of all three of these greenhouse gases. We used denitrification–decomposition (DNDC), a process-based biogeochemistry model, to evaluate the annual emissions of CH4,N2O, and CO2 for continuously flooded, single-, double-, and triple-cropped rice (three baseline scenarios), and in further simulations, the change in emissions with changing water management to midseason draining of the paddies, and to alternating crops of midseason drained rice and upland crops (two alternatives for each baseline scenario). We used a set of first- order atmospheric models to track the atmospheric burden of each gas over 500 years. We evaluated the dynamics of the radiative forcing due to the changes in emissions of CH4, N2O, and CO2 (alternative minus baseline), and compared these with standard calculations of CO2-equivalent emissions using global warming potentials (GWPs). All alternative scenarios had lower CH4 emissions and higher N2O emissions than their corresponding baseline cases, and all but one sequestered carbon in the soil more slowly. -
Albedo, Climate, & Urban Heat Islands
Albedo, Climate, & Urban Heat Islands Jeremy Gregory and CSHub research team: Xin Xu, Liyi Xu, Adam Schlosser, & Randolph Kirchain CSHub Webinar February 15, 2018 (Slides revised February 21, 2018) Albedo: fraction of solar radiation reflected from a surface Measured on a scale from 0 to 1 High Albedo http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/edu/Albedo Earth’s average albedo: ~0.3 Slide 2 Climate is affected by albedo Three main factors affecting the climate of a planet: Source: Grid Arendal, http://www.grida.no/resources/7033 Slide 3 Urban heat islands are affected by albedo Slide 4 Urban surface albedo is significant In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces Metropolitan Vegetation Roofs Pavements Other Areas Salt Lake City 33% 22% 36% 9% Sacramento 20% 20% 45% 15% Chicago 27% 25% 37% 11% Houston 37% 21% 29% 12% Source: Rose et al. (2003) 20%~25% 30%~45% Global change of urban surface albedo could reduce radiative forcing equivalent to 44 Gt of CO2 with $1 billion in energy savings per year in US (Akbari et al. 2009) Slide 5 Cool pavements are a potential mitigation mechanism for climate change and UHI heatisland.lbl.gov https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/07/us/california-today-cool-pavements-la.html Slide 6 Evaluating the impacts of pavement albedo is complicated Regional Climate Radiative forcing Urban Buildings Energy Demand Climate feedback Earth’s Energy Balance Incident radiation Ambient Temperature Pavement life cycle environmental impacts Materials Design & Use End-of-Life Production Construction Slide 7 Contexts vary significantly Location Urban morphology Climate Building properties Electricity grid Slide 8 Key research questions 1. -
Global Dimming
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 107 (2001) 255–278 Review Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences Gerald Stanhill∗, Shabtai Cohen Institute of Soil, Water and Environmental Sciences, ARO, Volcani Center, Bet Dagan 50250, Israel Received 8 August 2000; received in revised form 26 November 2000; accepted 1 December 2000 Abstract A number of studies show that significant reductions in solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface have occurred during the past 50 years. This review analyzes the most accurate measurements, those made with thermopile pyranometers, and concludes that the reduction has globally averaged 0.51 0.05 W m−2 per year, equivalent to a reduction of 2.7% per decade, and now totals 20 W m−2, seven times the errors of measurement. Possible causes of the reductions are considered. Based on current knowledge, the most probable is that increases in man made aerosols and other air pollutants have changed the optical properties of the atmosphere, in particular those of clouds. The effects of the observed solar radiation reductions on plant processes and agricultural productivity are reviewed. While model studies indicate that reductions in productivity and transpiration will be proportional to those in radiation this conclusion is not supported by some of the experimental evidence. This suggests a lesser sensitivity, especially in high-radiation, arid climates, due to the shade tolerance of many crops and anticipated reductions in water stress. Finally the steps needed to strengthen the evidence for global dimming, elucidate its causes and determine its agricultural consequences are outlined. -
Consideration of Land Use Change-Induced Surface Albedo Effects in Life-Cycle Analysis of Biofuels† Cite This: Energy Environ
Energy & Environmental Science View Article Online PAPER View Journal | View Issue Consideration of land use change-induced surface albedo effects in life-cycle analysis of biofuels† Cite this: Energy Environ. Sci., 2016, 9,2855 H. Cai,*a J. Wang,b Y. Feng,b M. Wang,a Z. Qina and J. B. Dunna Land use change (LUC)-induced surface albedo effects for expansive biofuel production need to be quantified for improved understanding of biofuel climate impacts. We addressed this emerging issue for expansive biofuel production in the United States (U.S.) and compared the albedo effects with greenhouse gas emissions highlighted by traditional life-cycle analysis of biofuels. We used improved spatial representation of albedo effects in our analysis by obtaining over 1.4 million albedo observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer flown on NASA satellites over a thousand counties representative of six Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in the U.S. We utilized high-spatial-resolution, crop-specific cropland cover data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and paired the data with the albedo data to enable consideration of various LUC scenarios. We simulated the radiative effects of LUC-induced albedo Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported Licence. changes for seven types of crop covers using the Monte Carlo Aerosol, Cloud and Radiation model, which employs an advanced radiative transfer mechanism coupled with spatially and temporally resolved meteorological and aerosol conditions. These simulations estimated the net radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere as a result of the LUC-induced albedo changes, which enabled quantification of the albedo effects on the basis of radiative forcing defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for CO2 and other greenhouse gases effects. -
Causes of Sea Level Rise
FACT SHEET Causes of Sea OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES AT RISK Level Rise What the Science Tells Us HIGHLIGHTS From the rocky shoreline of Maine to the busy trading port of New Orleans, from Roughly a third of the nation’s population historic Golden Gate Park in San Francisco to the golden sands of Miami Beach, lives in coastal counties. Several million our coasts are an integral part of American life. Where the sea meets land sit some of our most densely populated cities, most popular tourist destinations, bountiful of those live at elevations that could be fisheries, unique natural landscapes, strategic military bases, financial centers, and flooded by rising seas this century, scientific beaches and boardwalks where memories are created. Yet many of these iconic projections show. These cities and towns— places face a growing risk from sea level rise. home to tourist destinations, fisheries, Global sea level is rising—and at an accelerating rate—largely in response to natural landscapes, military bases, financial global warming. The global average rise has been about eight inches since the centers, and beaches and boardwalks— Industrial Revolution. However, many U.S. cities have seen much higher increases in sea level (NOAA 2012a; NOAA 2012b). Portions of the East and Gulf coasts face a growing risk from sea level rise. have faced some of the world’s fastest rates of sea level rise (NOAA 2012b). These trends have contributed to loss of life, billions of dollars in damage to coastal The choices we make today are critical property and infrastructure, massive taxpayer funding for recovery and rebuild- to protecting coastal communities. -
Chapter 1 Ozone and Climate
1 Ozone and Climate: A Review of Interconnections Coordinating Lead Authors John Pyle (UK), Theodore Shepherd (Canada) Lead Authors Gregory Bodeker (New Zealand), Pablo Canziani (Argentina), Martin Dameris (Germany), Piers Forster (UK), Aleksandr Gruzdev (Russia), Rolf Müller (Germany), Nzioka John Muthama (Kenya), Giovanni Pitari (Italy), William Randel (USA) Contributing Authors Vitali Fioletov (Canada), Jens-Uwe Grooß (Germany), Stephen Montzka (USA), Paul Newman (USA), Larry Thomason (USA), Guus Velders (The Netherlands) Review Editors Mack McFarland (USA) IPCC Boek (dik).indb 83 15-08-2005 10:52:13 84 IPCC/TEAP Special Report: Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 85 1.4 Past and future stratospheric ozone changes (attribution and prediction) 110 1.1 Introduction 87 1.4.1 Current understanding of past ozone 1.1.1 Purpose and scope of this chapter 87 changes 110 1.1.2 Ozone in the atmosphere and its role in 1.4.2 The Montreal Protocol, future ozone climate 87 changes and their links to climate 117 1.1.3 Chapter outline 93 1.5 Climate change from ODSs, their substitutes 1.2 Observed changes in the stratosphere 93 and ozone depletion 120 1.2.1 Observed changes in stratospheric ozone 93 1.5.1 Radiative forcing and climate sensitivity 120 1.2.2 Observed changes in ODSs 96 1.5.2 Direct radiative forcing of ODSs and their 1.2.3 Observed changes in stratospheric aerosols, substitutes 121 water vapour, methane and nitrous oxide 96 1.5.3 Indirect radiative forcing of ODSs 123 1.2.4 Observed temperature -
Global Warming Impacts on Severe Drought Characteristics in Asia Monsoon Region
water Article Global Warming Impacts on Severe Drought Characteristics in Asia Monsoon Region Jeong-Bae Kim , Jae-Min So and Deg-Hyo Bae * Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, 209 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-Gu, Seoul 05006, Korea; [email protected] (J.-B.K.); [email protected] (J.-M.S.) * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +82-2-3408-3814 Received: 2 April 2020; Accepted: 7 May 2020; Published: 12 May 2020 Abstract: Climate change influences the changes in drought features. This study assesses the changes in severe drought characteristics over the Asian monsoon region responding to 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C of global average temperature increases above preindustrial levels. Based on the selected 5 global climate models, the drought characteristics are analyzed according to different regional climate zones using the standardized precipitation index. Under global warming, the severity and frequency of severe drought (i.e., SPI < 1.5) are modulated by the changes in seasonal and regional precipitation − features regardless of the region. Due to the different regional change trends, global warming is likely to aggravate (or alleviate) severe drought in warm (or dry/cold) climate zones. For seasonal analysis, the ranges of changes in drought severity (and frequency) are 11.5%~6.1% (and 57.1%~23.2%) − − under 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C of warming compared to reference condition. The significant decreases in drought frequency are indicated in all climate zones due to the increasing precipitation tendency. In general, drought features under global warming closely tend to be affected by the changes in the amount of precipitation as well as the changes in dry spell length. -
The Use of Non-CO2 Multipliers for the Climate Impact of Aviation: the Scientific Basis
Workshop on Aviation and Carbon Markets ICAO Headquarters Montreal, Quebec 18-19 June 2008 The use of non-CO2 multipliers for the climate impact of aviation: The scientific basis by Dr. David W. Fahey Earth System Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, Colorado USA Introduction Outline Aviation and climate change radiative forcings The multiplier concept and limitations Conclusions & recommendations 1 Introduction Aviation contributes to climate change by increasing atmospheric radiative forcing through the emission of gases and aerosols and changing cloud abundance. Radiative forcing is a change in the balance of solar and terrestrial radiation in Earth’s atmosphere. IPCC, AR4 (2007) 2 1 Aviation and climate change Adapted from Wuebbles et al., 2007 3 Aviation and climate change CO2 Non-CO2 The non-CO2 multiplier is an effort to simplify the accounting of aviation climate forcing from effects other than CO2 accumulation. Adapted from Wuebbles et al., 2007 4 2 Global radiative forcing components (1750 - 2005) * Cooling Warming Aviation represents 3% (range 2 - 8%) of anthropogenic radiative forcing in 2005 (includes all components except induced cloudiness) * 5 Adapted from IPCC, AR4 (2007) Global radiative forcing components (1750 - 2005) Aviation RF components Aviation represents 3% (range 2 - 8%) of anthropogenic radiative forcing in 2005 *(includes all components except induced cloudiness) Adapted from IPCC, AR4 (2007) 6 3 Aviation radiative forcing components (1750 - 2005) Cooling Warming Aviation radiative forcing components have been quantified with best estimates except for induced cirrus cloudiness which includes aerosol cloud effects. Radiative forcing is a backward-looking metric that integrates over previous aircraft operations (i.e., 1750-2005) and hence is not a suitable metric for future aviation. -
Impacts of Biofuels on Climate Change, Water Use, and Land Use MARK A
PUBLIC INTEREST REPORT SUMMER 2011 Impacts of Biofuels on Climate Change, Water Use, and Land Use MARK A. DELUCCHI * INTRODUCTION Governments worldwide are promoting the and land use – because per unit of energy development of biofuels, such as ethanol from produced, biofuels require orders of magnitude corn, biodiesel from soybeans, and ethanol from more land and water than do petroleum wood or grass, in order to reduce dependency transportation fuels – and these impacts should on oil imported from politically unstable be weighed in an overall assessment of the costs regions of the world, spur agricultural and benefits of policies that promote biofuels. development, and reduce the climate impact of fossil fuel combustion. Biofuels have been At the start of each major section, I first discuss promoted as a way to mitigate the climate- the overall metric by which impacts typically are change impacts of energy use because the measured. is overall metric is important carbon in a biofuel comes from the atmosphere, because many analysts use it is a basis for which means that the combustion of a biofuel evaluating and comparing the impacts of biofuels; returns to the atmosphere the amount of hence, the overall metric should be as broad as carbon dioxide (CO2) that was removed by the possible yet still represent what society cares growth of the biomass feedstock. Because CO2 about. I argue that the absence of broad, from the combustion of fossil fuels, such as oil, meaningful metrics for climate-change, water-use, is one of the largest sources of anthropogenic and land-use impacts makes overall evaluations climate-active “greenhouse gases” (GHGs), it difficult. -
Well Below 2 C: Mitigation Strategies for Avoiding Dangerous To
PERSPECTIVE Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes PERSPECTIVE Yangyang Xua,1 and Veerabhadran Ramanathanb,1 Edited by Susan Solomon, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved August 11, 2017 (received for review November 9, 2016) The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agree- ment in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high- impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three- lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the cata- strophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blan- ket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.