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126 Climate Change, Forests and Forest Management ISSN 0258-6150 J, Climate change,change, : forests andand 126 J, forest managementmanagement i An overviewoverview s/ss 38V OL 111111sm-- ." Food and - AgdoultureAgriculture Organization - of _ the ,_. UnitedUnfted Nations , 11i - o Climate change,change, forests andand forest managementmanagement An overviewoverview by William M.M. CieslaCiesla Forest Protection Officer FAO Forest ResourcesResources DivisionDivision j ...... -..----- .. ,- -_'T~ ___ _ j t:;, .:;-~. ~ .. "_, , -' . .,. ,. ~, . '---~_~_l 1 ,,-, -" '.', I on LaLa DigueDigue i~_~: be particularlyparticularly )1irnate;limate change, andmd intensity of The designations employedemployed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concemingconcerning thethe legallegal statusstatus ofof any any country, country, territory,territory, citycity oror area or ofof itsits authorities,authorities, oror concemingconcerning the delimitationdelimitation of its frontiers oror boundaries.boundaries. M-08 ISBN 92-5-103664-092-5-103664-0 All rights reserved.reserved. NoNo partpart ofof thisthis publicationpublication maymay bebe reproduced,reproduced, storedstored inin aa retrieval system, or transmittedtransmitted inin any formform oror byby any any means, means, electronic, electronic, mechanical,me.chanical, photocopying oror otherwise, without the prior permissionpermission of thethe copyright owner. Applications forfor such permission, withwith a statement of the purpose and extentextent ofof thethe reproduction,reproduction, shouldshould bebe addressedaddressed toto the the Director, Director, Publications Division, Food and AgdcultureAgriculture Organization ofof the UnitedUnited Nations, Viale delledells Terme di Caracalla,Caracalla, 00100 Rome,Rome,ltaly. Italy. 0© FAO FAO 19951995 Xi] ~= - I FOREWORD Changes in the world's climate, due to increases in the concentration ofof carboncarbon dioxidedioxide andand otherother greenhousegreenhouse gasesgases in thethe Earth's atmosphere, have thethe potentialpotential toto significantly affect forests and the practicepractice of forestry.forestry. The probabilityprobability ofof climateclimate changechange isis one ofof today'stoday's leading leading environmental environmental concerns.concerns. The issueissue is complex and filled with uncertainties.uncertainties. InformationInformation available on thethe subject is often confusingconfusing andand conflicting. Climate is thethe keykey factorfactor whichwhich determinesdetermines thethe distributiondistribution ofof vegetationvegetation.. TheThe relationrelation ofof climate climate changechange toto thethe conservationconservation andand development ofof the world'sworld' s forestsforests isis therefore,therefore, anan importantimportant issueissue to consider.consider. ForestsForests cancan contributecontribute toto thethe greenhousegreenhouse effect, theythey can also be afaffectedfected byby. climate changechange and they offer opportunities to mitigatemitigate itsits effects.effects. ItIt is important forfor forestersforesters toto havehave anan understandingunderstanding of the climate change iissuessue and itsits implications.implications . This document,document, whichw hich isis presented in questionQuestion and answer format, isis designeddesigned to serveserve asas aa general referencereference onon thethe subjectsubject ofof climate change andand forests.forests. TheThe answers are basedbased onon thethe current world's literatureliterature includingincluding thethe most recent analysesanalyses by thethe IntergovernmentalIntergovernmental PanelPanel on ClimateClimate Change (IPCC).OPCC) . It isis hopedhoped that forestforest plannersplanners andand managersmanagers will find it useful in thethe preparationpreparation andand implementationimplementation of theirtheir programmes and in providing advice toto decisiondecision makers.makers. J.J . P.P. Lanly,Lanly, DirectorDirector Forest Resources Division ForestryForestry Department ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The helpful and constructive commentscomments providedprovided by aa largelarge number of peoplepeople who reviewedreviewed thisthis documentdocument isis gratefullygratefully acknowledged.acknowledged. External reviewsreviews were kindly provided by M. Fosberg,Fosberg, USDA Forest Service,Service, Washington DC, S. Brown, USUS EPA, Corvalis,Corvalis, Oregon, USA and M.M. HosnyHosny ElEl Lakany,Lakany, DesertDesert DevelopmentDevelopment Center,Center, AmericanAmerican University, Cairo,Cairo, Egypt.Egypt. Internal (FAO) reviewsreviews were provided by W.G. Sombroek, Director,Director, Lands and Water Development Division and Chairman, InterdepartmentalInterdepartmental Working Group on Climate Change; R. Gommes, Coordinator, Agrometeorology Group,Group, RemoteRemote Sensing Centre; J.P. Lanly, Director,Director, ForestForest ResourcesResources Division;Division; C.C. Palmberg-Lerche, Palmberg-Lerche, Chief, Forest Resources DevelopmentDevelopment Service;Service; J.J. Ball, Senior Forest Plantations Officer, S.S. Braatz, Agroforestry andand LandLand Use Officer; P.P. Vantomme, Forest ManagementManagement Officer; D. Dykstra, Forest Harvesting Officer (Presently(Presently with CIFOR,CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia);Indonesia); M. Trossero, WoodWood BasedBased EnergyEnergy Officer;Officer; C.C. Chandrasekharan,Chandrasekharan, Non-Non­ Wood ForestForest ProductsProducts Officer andand D.D. Suparmo,Suparmo, Advisor, TropicalTropical Forests Action Programme.Programme. Special thanksthanks areare given to J.B.J.B. Harrington, formerlyformerly of thethe Petawawa National ForestryForestry InstituteInstitute,, Ontario, Canada, forfor hishis assistance with the technical editingediting ofof thethe manuscriptmanuscript andand F. Monti, FAO, Forestry Department Librarian, who assistedassisted in accessingaccessing the massive literature available on climateclimate change.change. iii TABLE OFOF CONTENTSCONTENTS FOREWORD ....... ... .• ..•.. •.. ......•....... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....•............. ........ ii TABLE OF CONTENTSCONTENTS ..•............•..•.....•.. iii LIST OF ACROACRONYMSNYMS ..... ... ..•....... ........ ixix LIST OF TABLES .. ... •........ •... • . .• . ....•... xii LIST OF BOXESBOXES . • . • . • . • .. xiii LIST OFOF FIGURESFIGURES .........•..•..•........... .. xiv INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION . • . • . • . • . 1 CHAPTER 11 - THE EARTH'S CLIMATE - A A DYNAMICDYNAMIC ENTITYENTITY 4 1. HOW ARE WEATHERWEA THER ANDAND CLIMA CLlMA TE TE DEFINED?DEFINED? .... 4 2. TO WHAWHAT T EXTENT HAS THETHE EARTH'S CLIMACLlMA TETE CHANGED DURING THETHE COURSECOURSE OF GEOLOGICGEOLOGIC HISTORY? . .. 4 3. WHAWHAT T CHACHANGES NGES HA VEVE OCCURRED ININ THETHE EARTH'SEARTH'S CLlMACLIMA TETE SINCESINCE THE BEGINNING OF RECORDEDRECORDED HUMAN HISTORY? .................. .... .. ...... 5 4. WHAT FACTORSFACTORS CAN CAUSECAUSE CHANGESCHANGES IN THETHE EARTH'SEARTH'S CLIMATE?CLIMA TE? ........................ .... 9 CHAPTER 22 - THE GREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE EFFECTEFFECT . .. 151 5 5. WHAWHAT T IS THETHE "GREENHOUSE"GREENHOUSE EFFECT"EFFECT" AND AND HOWHOW DOESDOES ITIT INFLUENCE THE EARTH'S CLIMACLlMA TE?TE? . ......... 15 iv 6. WHICH GASES ARE CONSIDERED TO TO BE BE GHGS GHGS AND AND WHA WHAT T ARE THETHE SOURCESSOURCES OFOF THESETHESE GASES? . .. 18 7. WHAWHAT T ISIS THETHE SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANCE OF HUMANHUMAN SOURCESSOURCES OFOF GHGS? ...... .. ..... : ........... .... 22 B. DO ALL GHGSGHGS HA VEVE AN AN EQUAL EQUAL WARMING WARMING EFFECT? EFFECT? 2222 9. WHAWHAT T EVIDENCE EXISTSEXISTS TOTO SUPPORTSUPPORT THETHE IDEA IDEA THATHAT T GHG LEVELS IN THETHE AATMOSPHERE TMOSPHERE AREARE INCREASING? 2323 10. WHICH COUNTRIESCOUNTRIES PRESENTLYPRESENTLY MAKE THETHE GREAGREATEST TEST CONTRIBUTION TOTO ELEVAELEVA TED TED LEVELS LEVELS OF OF GHGS? GHGS? . ... 25 11 . HOW CANCAN AEROSOLSAEROSOLS COUNTERACTCOUNTERACT THE EFFECTSEFFECTS OF GHGS ... .. .. .. .... .......... 25 CHAPTER 3 - PREDICTED CHANGESCHANGES ININ THE EARTH'S CLIMATE ANDAND EXPECTED EXPECTED EFFECTSEFFECTS . ... ... 27 12. IN GENERAL,GENERAL, WHATWHAT AREARE THE THE PREDICTED PREDICTED EFFECTSEFFECTS OFOF INCREASED LEVELS LEVELS OF OF GHGSGHGS ON THETHE EARTH'SEARTH'S CLlMACLIMATE? TE? ..... .... .. ...... ....... .. 27 13. HOW AREARE CHANGESCHANGES ININ THE EARTH'SEARTH'S CL/MATECLIMATE PREDICTED? . .. 27 14. HOW RELIABLERELIABLE ARE PRESENTPRESENT PREDICTIONS OF CLIMACLlMA TETE CHANGE? .......... .. ........ ..... .. 30 15. WHAT CHACHANGES NGES IN CLIMACLIMATE TE AREARE PREDICTED WITHWITH A DOUBLING OF CO,CO2 FROMFROM PRE-INDUSTRIALPRE-INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION LEVELS? .... .. ................... ...... 31 16. IS THETHE CLIMACLlMA TE OFOF SOMESOME REGIONSREGIONS OF THETHE WORLDWORLD EXPECTED TO CHACHANGE NGE TO A CREAGREA TER DEGREE THANTHAN OTHERS? ............................... 33 v 17. WHAWHAT T CHACHANGES NGES ININ THETHE LEVELLEVEL OFOF THETHE OCEANSOCEANS AREARE EXPECTED DUE TO CLIMACL/MA TE CHANGE? ... 34 1B. HOW WILLWILL PLANTS,PLANTS, INCLUDINGINCLUDING TREES, TREES, BEBE INFLUENCEDINFLUENCED BY CHANGESCHANGES IN THETHE LEVELSLEVELS OF GHGs IN THETHE EARTH'S ATMOSPHEREA TMOSPHERE AND RESULTANTRESUL TANT CHANGESCHANGES IN TEMPERA TURETURE AND AND PRECIPITAPRECIPITATION TlON ?1 . ........ 34 19. HOW MIGHTMIGHT SOILSSOILS BEBE AFFECTEDAFFECTED BYBY CHANGESCHANGES ININ CLIMATE?CL/MA TE? ............. ....... .... ... .. 37 20. IS THERETHERE ANYANY EVIDENCE EVIDENCE WHICHWHICH INDICA!NDICA TES THATTHA T CLIMACL/MA TE CHANGES MA YHA VEVE ALREADY OCCURRED
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