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Prepared For A look ahead at the Polish political & economical landscape prepared for Warszawa, October 20, 2020 Daily Tailored High-profile analysis research events Thematic Stakeholder Boardroom reports mapping presentations Quantitative Dossiers Workshops research Polish politics after electoral marathon Wojciech Szacki Head of Political Desk Polityka Insight Polish politics Polish society Polish economy Elections: Seemingly peaceful three years European Parliament Cabinet election reshuffle 5.2019 10.2020 10-11.2018 10.2019 6-7.2020 2023 Local elections Parliamentary Presidential Parliamentary elections election and Local elections Cabinet reshuffle: Newcomers, returns and dismissals Polish politics Polish society Polish economy New ministers: Kaczyński returns to the Cabinet Jarosław Kaczyński Jarosław Gowin Deputy PM, Head of Deputy PM, Minister of the Committee of the Interior, Development, Labour and Justice and National Defence Technology Przemysław Czarnek Grzegorz Puda Minister of Education Minister of Agriculture and Science Michał Cieślak Michał Wójcik Minister, member Minister, member of of the cabinet council the cabinet council New ministries: Fewer but bigger institutions Piotr Gliński Tadeusz Kościński Minister of Culture, Minister of Finances National Heritage and Sport and Funds Marlena Maląg Michał Kurtyka Minister of Family Minister of Climate and Social Policy and Environment - Labour Dismissed ministers: Farewells and changes of position Jadwiga Emilewicz Jan Krzysztof Wojciech Murdzek Deputy PM, Minister of Ardanowski Minister of Science and Development Minister of Agriculture Higher Education Michał Woś Marek Gróbarczyk Dariusz Piontkowski Minister of Minister of Maritime Minister of National Environment Economy and Inland Education Navigation Marek Zagórski Danuta Dmowska- Minister of Digital Affairs -Andrzejuk Minister of Sport New Cabinet: Logic of the reconstruction Reducing the number of ministries Creation of a more ‘flexible’ government Diminishing the influence of PiS’ coalition partners Refreshment of the ruling camp’s image Dismissals of poorly rated ministers Parliament: Sejm ruled by the United Right, Senate by the opposition SEJM SENATE THE LOWER CHAMBER THE UPPER CHAMBER KO: United Right: KO: 43 235 134 PSL: United Right: The Left: 3 48 48 The Left: Polska 100 2 2050: 1 Independent: 460 PSL: 4 30 Konfederacja: MN: 11 1 United Right: The ruling coalition PiS Solidarna Polska Porozumienie 198 members of the Sejm 19 members of the Sejm 18 members of the Sejm 44 senators 2 senators 2 senators Leader: Leader: Leader: Jarosław Kaczyński Zbigniew Ziobro Jarosław Gowin Scattered opposition: Main forces Civic Coalition (KO) The Left PSL-Polish Coalition 134 members of the Sejm 48 members of the Sejm 30 members of the Sejm 44 senators 2 senators 3 senators Comprised of four parties Coalition of three parties Comprised of three parties Main leader: Borys Budka Main leader: Włodzimierz Czarzasty Main leader: Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz Possible leader: Rafał Trzaskowski Konfederacja Polska 2050 11 members of the Sejm 1 member of the Sejm Coalition of three parties A new movement, gathered behind Szymon Hołownia Multiple leaders (includ. Krzysztof Bosak) Polls: Changes in parties’ support 50 Political parties PiS 45 44 Koalicja Obywatelska 40 Lewica 35 32 PSL-Koalicja Polska 30 28 Konfederacja 25 Polska 2050 20 *Dotted line represents a variant with Polska 15 2050 running 12 11 10 9 8 66 5 5 February March April May June July August/September What’s next: Icebergs ahead of Kaczyński’s ship Covid-19 situation Losing majority Mateusz Morawiecki and its implications due to a backbenchers’ and Zbigniew Ziobro’s rebel neverending war No elections until 2023: What can we expect Flattening of the structure of the judiciary Further weakening the position of local governments Tightening control over NGOs Decentralization of the media Changes in the electoral law and gerrymandering Changes in the administrative division of Poland Polish politics Q&A Polish politics Polish society Polish economy Economic outlook Adam Czerniak, PhD Chief Economist, Director for Research Polityka Insight Polish politics Polish society Polish economy Pandemic impact on the Polish economy: What do we know CHANGES IN VALUE ADDED BY ECONOMIC SECTOR IN H1’2020 CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE TOTAL % CHANGE IN GDP 10 (Q2’2020 VS Q4’2019 S.A.) 0 0 -10 Industry -2 Construction Public sector -20 Real estate activities -4 Wholesale -30 and retail trade -40 Agriculture, forestryFinancial and and fishing insurance activities Information and communication -6 Logistics (transport, Professional and support activities storage and distribution) -50 -8 Accommodation Industry and food service activities -60 Wholesale and retail trade -10 Recreational services -70 Rest of the economy Logistics (transport, storage, distribution) -80 Recreational services -90 Source: Eurostat, GUS, own calculations. Accommodation and food service activities Pandemic impact on the Polish economy: What to expect PI forecast % 15 10 GDP growth Consumption 5 Public spending 0 Investment Net export -5 Changes in inventories -10 Source: GUS, own calculations. -15 2018 2019 2020 2021 Prices: Inflation remains stubbornly high PI forecast 5 4 3 CPI (%) Core (pp.) 2 Food (pp.) 1 Fuels & energy (pp.) 0 -1 Source: GUS, -2 own calculations. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Pandemic impact on the labour market: What do we know In Q2’2020 employment fell by 151k (-0.9% q-o-q) Sectors with biggest drops were: recreational real estate accommodation services activities and food services -26k or -11.2% -13k or -9.0% -30k or -8.1% Source: Eurostat. Pandemic impact on the labour market: What do we know Who have lost their jobs? young people temporary foreigners people in age 15-24 employed a second job 117k or -10.8% + 106k or -4.1% + 46k or -35.3% + 19k or -2.4% out of which 42k were older than 24 years (-2.1%) Source: Eurostat. Almost all of them became economically inactive economic activity dropped by 153k in Q2’2020 Pandemic impact on the labour market: What do we know As a result unemployment levels remained stable In comparison to and February registered December 2019 2020 unemployment is equal to 5.2% 5.5% 6.1% Source: GUS. Pandemic impact on the labour market: The worst is yet to come Firms are now making business projections for 2021 and the outlook is grim Sectors most prone do lay-offs: export-depended manufacturing; construction; professional activities; accommodation and food services. The government’s anti-crisis shield will expire in 2021 Menace of a second lockdown Fiscal policy: Strongly myopic The government introduced a wide-spectrum stimulus package worth over PLN 200bn (>10% GDP) including: wage subsidies; credit guarantees; partly-refundable credits; benefits for parents, self-employed and employers. The 2020 budget deficit had to be increased toPLN 109bn Fiscal policy: Strongly myopic Polityka Insight’s general government deficit forecast: 9.8% in 2020 8-9% in 2021 The debt level will surpass 55% of GDP and is likely to breach the 60% GDP threshold Economic outlook Q&A Polish politics Polish society Polish economy If you would like to order similar presentation, please contact: Maciej Michalik Research Projects Manager Polityka Insight [email protected].
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