An Endless Conflict? an Update on Developments in the Russian-Chechen Conflict in 2011
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ON the EFFECTIVE USE of PROXY WARFARE by Andrew Lewis Peek Baltimore, Maryland May 2021 © 2021 Andrew Peek All Rights Reserved
ON THE EFFECTIVE USE OF PROXY WARFARE by Andrew Lewis Peek A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Baltimore, Maryland May 2021 2021 Andrew Peek All rights reserved Abstract This dissertation asks a simple question: how are states most effectively conducting proxy warfare in the modern international system? It answers this question by conducting a comparative study of the sponsorship of proxy forces. It uses process tracing to examine five cases of proxy warfare and predicts that the differentiation in support for each proxy impacts their utility. In particular, it proposes that increasing the principal-agent distance between sponsors and proxies might correlate with strategic effectiveness. That is, the less directly a proxy is supported and controlled by a sponsor, the more effective the proxy becomes. Strategic effectiveness here is conceptualized as consisting of two key parts: a proxy’s operational capability and a sponsor’s plausible deniability. These should be in inverse relation to each other: the greater and more overt a sponsor’s support is to a proxy, the more capable – better armed, better trained – its proxies should be on the battlefield. However, this close support to such proxies should also make the sponsor’s influence less deniable, and thus incur strategic costs against both it and the proxy. These costs primarily consist of external balancing by rival states, the same way such states would balance against conventional aggression. Conversely, the more deniable such support is – the more indirect and less overt – the less balancing occurs. -
Chechnya's Status Within the Russian
SWP Research Paper Uwe Halbach Chechnya’s Status within the Russian Federation Ramzan Kadyrov’s Private State and Vladimir Putin’s Federal “Power Vertical” Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs SWP Research Paper 2 May 2018 In the run-up to the Russian presidential elections on 18 March 2018, the Kremlin further tightened the federal “vertical of power” that Vladimir Putin has developed since 2000. In the North Caucasus, this above all concerns the republic of Dagestan. Moscow intervened with a powerful purge, replacing the entire political leadership. The situation in Chechnya, which has been ruled by Ramzan Kadyrov since 2007, is conspicuously different. From the early 2000s onwards, President Putin conducted a policy of “Chechenisation” there, delegating the fight against the armed revolt to local security forces. Under Putin’s protection, the republic gained a leadership which is now publicly referred to by Russians as the “Chechen Khanate”, among other similar expressions. Kadyrov’s breadth of power encompasses an independ- ent foreign policy, which is primarily orientated towards the Middle East. Kadyrov emphatically professes that his republic is part of Russia and presents himself as “Putin’s foot soldier”. Yet he has also transformed the federal subject of Chechnya into a private state. The ambiguous relationship between this republic and the central power fundamentally rests on the loyalty pact between Putin and Kadyrov. However, criticism of this arrange- ment can now occasionally be heard even in the Russian president’s inner circles. With regard to Putin’s fourth term, the question arises just how long the pact will last. -
Soviet and Post-Soviet Wars: an Oral History Project" Is NOW ON-LINE! (Free Access)
H-Soyuz The Journal of Power Institutions in Post-Soviet Societies, Issue 20/21 - "Soviet and Post-Soviet Wars: An Oral History Project" is NOW ON-LINE! (free access) Discussion published by Elisabeth SIECA-KOZLOWSKI on Tuesday, April 21, 2020 PIPSS is pleased to present its latest issue dedicated to a new project it is launching on the occasion of its 15th anniversary: An Oral History of the Soviet Wars and Post-Soviet An open access oral history collection A participatory initiative https://journals.openedition.org/pipss/4783 Soviet & Post-Soviet Wars: An Oral History Project - Introduction Elisabeth Sieca-Kozlowski Soviet & Post-Soviet Wars: An Oral History Project An Open-Access Oral History Collection & A Participatory Initiative Soviet & Post-Soviet Wars: An Oral History Project - Testimonies Soviet-German War Alexander Gogun et Masha Cerovic Interview with Tatiana Markovskaia, - Veteran of the Lelchitsky Partisan Brigade (Soviet-German War) -, Conducted in Mirhorod, Poltava Region, Ukraine, 9 August 2008 (mix of RU,BEL,UKR) Soviet-Afghan War Ben McVicker Interview with Colonel Vladimir Furtună, Conducted in Chișinău, Moldova, May 2015 (RU) Cloé Drieu et Elisabeth Sieca-Kozlowski Interview with Robertas Krikstaponis, - Conscript (Soviet-Afghan War) -, Conducted in Vilnius, Lithuania, 25 August 2015 (RU) Cloé Drieu et Elisabeth Sieca-Kozlowski Interview with Petras Gaškas, - Sergeant (Soviet-Afghan War) -, Conducted in Citation: Elisabeth SIECA-KOZLOWSKI. The Journal of Power Institutions in Post-Soviet Societies, Issue 20/21 - "Soviet and Post-Soviet Wars: An Oral History Project" is NOW ON-LINE! (free access). H-Soyuz. 04-21-2020. https://networks.h-net.org/node/11423/discussions/6102564/journal-power-institutions-post-soviet-societies-issue-2021 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License. -
Russias Wars in Chechnya 1994-2009 Free
FREE RUSSIAS WARS IN CHECHNYA 1994-2009 PDF Mark Galeotti | 96 pages | 09 Dec 2014 | Bloomsbury Publishing PLC | 9781782002772 | English | Osprey, United Kingdom Russia’s Wars in Chechnya – - Osprey Publishing In this fully illustrated book an expert on the conflicts traces the progress of the wars in Chechnya, from the initial Russian advance through to urban battles such as Grozny, and the prolonged guerrilla warfare in the mountainous regions. Russias Wars in Chechnya 1994-2009 assesses how the wars have torn apart the fabric of Chechen society and their impact on Russia itself. Featuring specially drawn full-colour mapping and drawing upon a wide range of sources, this succinct account explains the origins, history and consequences of Russia's wars in Chechnya, shedding new light on the history — and prospects — of the troubled region. These are the stories of low-level guerrilla combat as told by the survivors. They cover fighting from the cities of Grozny and Argun to the villages of Bamut and Serzhen-yurt, and finally the hills, river valleys and mountains that make up so much of Chechnya. The author embedded with Chechen guerrilla forces and knows the conflict, country and culture. Yet, as a Western outsider, he is able to maintain perspective and objectivity. He traveled extensively to interview Chechen former combatants now displaced, some now in hiding or on the run from Russian retribution and justice. The book is organized into vignettes that provide insight on the nature of both Chechen and Russian tactics utilized during the two wars. They show the chronic problem of guerrilla logistics, the necessity of digging in fighting positions, the value of the correct use of terrain and the price paid in individual discipline and unit cohesion when guerrillas are not bound by a military code and law. -
Chechnya: Moving Toward Islamic Nationalism? Pénélope Larzillière
4 CHECHNYA: MOVING TOWARD ISLAMIC NATIONALISM? Pénélope Larzillière Between the first Russo-Chechen war of independence (1994-96) and the resumption of the conflict in 1999, the range of actions employed by the Chechens evolved, as did the intensity of Russian army opera- tions. While ambushes against the latter have remained the Chechen combatants’ principal mode of action, recent developments in the conflict have been marked by the emergence of suicide attacks. The first war ended with the signing of the Khassaviurt accord in August 1996,1 following the serious setbacks experienced by the Russian army. A treaty was signed in 1997 prohibiting the use of force in rela- tions between the two countries. However, the situation in an inde- pendent Chechnya turned out to be difficult. The shattered economy left between 80 and 90% of the working population jobless.2 Russian promises of reconstruction in fact resulted in the economic isolation of Chechen territory through checkpoints set up all along the border. On the domestic scene, elections were organized in 1997. The candi- dates who were the most intransigent towards the Russians and who had Islamist leanings, such as Basayev3 and Udugov (Minister of Infor- mation under President Dudayev), were outnumbered by Maskhadov, the head of the Chechen army known for his willingness to compro- 89 90 PÉNÉLOPE LARZILLIÈRE mise and negotiate with the Russians. Yet Maskhadov had great dif- ficulty in establishing his authority over the whole of Chechnya, with certain warlords refusing to retreat. In October 1999, Dagestani and Chechen Islamist combatants, led by Basayev, made an incursion into Dagestan to provide assistance to Wahhabi villages. -
Russia's Abusive Response to the Dagestan Insurgency
HUMAN RIGHTS “Invisible War” Russia’s Abusive Response to the Dagestan Insurgency WATCH “Invisible War” Russia’s Abusive Response to the Dagestan Insurgency Copyright © 2015 Human Rights Watch All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 978-1-6231-32477 Cover design by Rafael Jimenez Human Rights Watch defends the rights of people worldwide. We scrupulously investigate abuses, expose the facts widely, and pressure those with power to respect rights and secure justice. Human Rights Watch is an independent, international organization that works as part of a vibrant movement to uphold human dignity and advance the cause of human rights for all. Human Rights Watch is an international organization with staff in more than 40 countries, and offices in Amsterdam, Beirut, Berlin, Brussels, Chicago, Geneva, Goma, Johannesburg, London, Los Angeles, Moscow, Nairobi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, Sydney, Tokyo, Toronto, Tunis, Washington DC, and Zurich. For more information, please visit our website: http://www.hrw.org JUNE 2015 978-1-6231-32477 Invisible War Russia’s Abusive Response to the Dagestan Insurgency Map .................................................................................................................................... i Summary ........................................................................................................................... 1 Watch Lists .............................................................................................................................. 2 Abuses -
Radical Islam in Chechnya
RADICAL ISLAM IN CHECHNYA Mr. Artem Kroupenev (Researcher, ICT) 23/1/2009 ABSTRACT The permeation of radical Islam in Chechnya has served a multi-faceted function. It has been the vehicle of separatist resistance, a platform of political strife and conflict, a source of funding and external support and a unifying ideological principle that, in its various interpretations, has brought both hope and destruction for the Chechen society. More often than not, Islam served as a political-ideological tool that brought the promise of legitimacy and was the main source of contention between the Chechen political factions. For 21st century Russia, radical Islam in Chechnya provided a different type of challenge – one that turned into an opportunity for justifying its counter-terrorist operations in the Caucasus. * The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT). 2 Radical Islam in Chechnya Modern Origins of Chechen Islamization Since 1989, radical Islam has gradually permeated the fabric of Chechnya’s socio-political environment. This process was aided by internal changes in the Soviet Union – the disintegration of the communist ideology and its supporting governmental structure; and the course of Perestroika, which allowed various factions to freely propagate their moral and religious values. The resulting ideological and political vacuum in Chechnya was rapidly filled by radical Islam. From the onset of its post-Soviet attempts to achieve independence, the new secular government in Chechnya took steps that indicated an aspiration to restore Islamic traditions. In this regard, during his initiation as Chechen president on November 9, 1991, retired Lieutenant-General of Soviet Air-Forces, Djohar Dudayev was sworn in holding a Koran in front of numerous representatives of Islamic religious institutions. -
A Short History of Islamic “States” in the North Caucasus
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF BEIRUT THE CAUCASUS EMIRATE IN THE AGE OF ISIS: A SHORT HISTORY OF ISLAMIC “STATES” IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS by SUSANNAH JANE STEPHENS A Project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts to the Center for Arab and Middle East Studies of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at the American University of Beirut Beirut, Lebanon April 2016 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would first like to acknowledge the extraordinary teachers who have inspired and encouraged me during the course of my education. I have been profoundly lucky to study under such sagacious and passionate individuals. Specifically, I want to thank Michael Schaffer for believing in me at a crucial moment and giving me my first transformative abroad experience, Dr. Jay Holstein for making learning fantastically exciting and for awakening a lifelong passion for religious studies, David Gould, for talking me through my last year of undergraduate and for patiently and softly guiding me towards the my most correct path, and Dr. Paul du Quenoy for his invaluable advice and attention during the process of producing this project. Thank you all, you have changed my life. I would next like to thank the great friends who have enriched my life and taught me so much. I would especially like to thank Kelsey Williamson, the most selfless and trustworthy friend a person could hope to have. Thank you for taking care of me, for helping me, and for always going above and beyond. Thank you Max Gardiner for being patient with me and for loving me so well. -
The Main Idea of the Article Is That Even Though Many Have Claimed
Souleimanov, E. A. and Aliyev, H. (2015) Asymmetry of values, indigenous forces, and incumbent success in counterinsurgency: evidence from Chechnya. Journal of Strategic Studies, 38(5), pp. 678-703. There may be differences between this version and the published version. You are advised to consult the publisher’s version if you wish to cite from it. http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/153385/ Deposited on: 11 December 2017 Enlighten – Research publications by members of the University of Glasgow http://eprints.gla.ac.uk Asymmetry of Values, Indigenous Forces, and Incumbent Success in Counterinsurgency: Evidence from Chechnya Abstract This article fills the gap in existing scholarship on asymmetric conflict, indigenous forces, and how socio-cultural codes shape the dynamics and outcomes of conflict transformation. Specifically, it identifies three key socio-cultural values commonplace in honorific societies: retaliation, hospitality, and silence. As sources of effective pro-insurgent violent mobilisation and support from among the local population, these values provide insurgents with an asymmetric advantage over much stronger incumbents. Using the case studies of the two Russian counterinsurgencies in Chechnya, the article shows the mechanisms on the ground through which Moscow’s deployment of indigenous forces against insurgents helped to stem the tide of conflict, reversing the insurgents’ initial advantage in terms of asymmetry of values. Keywords: asymmetry of values, asymmetric conflict, indigenous forces, counterinsurgency, Chechnya, North Caucasus Introduction Throughout history, indigenous forces (IF) have frequently been deployed by the incumbent powers to assist in fighting insurgencies. Over the past thirty years, a large and rapidly growing literature on IF in counterinsurgencies (COIN) has sought to demonstrate that the use of IF contributes to the incumbent’s success in local conflicts. -
The Rise of Islamic State in the North Caucasus: Co-Opting a Global Movement Or Revolutionary Pragmatism?
The Rise of Islamic State in the North Caucasus: Co-opting a Global Movement or Revolutionary Pragmatism? MA Thesis in European Studies Graduate School for Humanities Universiteit van Amsterdam Author: Colm Fitzpatrick Student No: 11104503 Main Supervisor: Prof. Michael Kemper Second Supervisor: Dr. Erik Van Ree Table of Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter I – Salafism in the Post-Soviet North Caucasus ..................................................... 4 Dagestan ................................................................................................................................ 5 Chechnya and Ingushetia ..................................................................................................... 8 Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachaevo-Cherkessia ............................................................... 9 The First War ...................................................................................................................... 11 The Second War .................................................................................................................. 14 Chapter II: Towards a Global Doctrine .............................................................................. 18 Radicalising the “Moderates” ............................................................................................ 18 Imarat Kavkaz .................................................................................................................... -
Copyright by Odysseas Christou 2009
Copyright by Odysseas Christou 2009 The Dissertation Committee for Odysseas Christou certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: The Ties That Bind: Norms, Networks, Information, and the Organization of Political Violence Committee: R. Harrison Wagner, Supervisor Gary P.Freeman George Gavrilis Alan Kuperman Ami Pedahzur The Ties That Bind: Norms, Networks, Information, and the Organization of Political Violence by Odysseas Christou, B.A. Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin August 2009 To my family and friends in Cyprus for their unwavering support. Acknowledgments This dissertation is undoubtedly the result of collaborative effort. Many people contributed to its completion in different ways, and I thank them all for the guidance, help, and support that I received throughout this process. First, I would like to thank my committee members for their collective input at all stages of this project; they have challenged, spurred, and inspired me in many more ways than the ones specified here and for that I am grateful. Alan Kuperman provided some crucial guidance as soon as he became involved with the project that had a transformative effect on the entire dissertation. His insightful and challenging feedback will have a lasting effect on my future research endeavors. Ami Pedahzur has been the source of very important advice, especially in terms of professional development and practical issues on how to conduct research on this often challenging research area. -
The Influence of International Funding on the Chechen Separatist Movement in Post-Soviet Russia
University of Amsterdam Masters in East European Studies The Influence of International Funding on the Chechen Separatist Movement in Post-Soviet Russia Author: Colm Fitzpatrick Introduction Given the current political and social climate, it has become commonplace to link an insurrectionist movement of a predominantly Muslim population to a global concept of Islamic awakening. The conflicts and post-conflict dissidence in Chechnya and her neighbours have at times been placed into this category of dubious self-determination. Indeed, Vladimir Putin has often justified the heavy handed approach of the Kremlin in the region since 1999 by associating the insurgency in Chechnya with the endeavours of the Western powers in fighting the ludicrous War on Terror. However, it would be equally as irresponsible to claim that the violence in Chechnya over the past three decades was purely a question of a coloniser combatting nationalists. Although nationalism has played a significant role in the politics of Chechnya and the initial motivation for self-determination; pan-Islamic philanthropy and transnational military mobilisation with a discernible radical ideology have dramatically altered to conception of the Chechen conflict. This essay will endeavour to asses to what extent the involvement of international actors and organisations motivated by the pan- Islamist agenda had on the gradual adoption of radical Islam by the chief proponents of Chechen independence during the 1990s. Was the Chechen conflict co-opted or hijacked by global Islam; or were the Chechens supremely pragmatic in accepting the only tangible international support afforded them in their desperate confrontation with Russia? Chechnya as Nation Before delving into the broad question of Chechen indoctrination into the global Islamist agenda, it is pertinent that one assess the potency of the nationalist movement that brought about secession and consequent conflict with Moscow after the fall of the Soviet Union.