stock.adobe.com - © Davies Stephen ALLIANZ INSURANCE REPORT 2020 SKYFALL 01 July 2020 02 Looking back: License to insure 10 Coronomics: Tomorrow never dies 16 Money? Penny? Outlook for the coming decade 22 No time to die: ESG as the next business frontier in insurance Allianz Research The global insurance industry entered 2020 in good shape: In 2019, premiums increa- sed by +4.4%, the strongest growth since 2015. The increase was driven by the life seg- EXECUTIVE ment, where growth sharply increased over 2018 to +4.4% as China overcame its tem- porary, regulatory-induced setback and mature markets finally came to grips with low interest rates. P&C clocked the same rate of growth (+4.3%), down from +5.4% in 2018. SUMMARY Global premium income totaled EUR3,906bn in 2019 (life: EUR2,399bn, P&C: EUR1,507bn). Then, Covid-19 hit the world economy like a meteorite. The sudden stop of economic activity around the globe will batter insurance demand, too: Global premium income is expected to shrink by -3.8% in 2020 (life: -4.4%, P&C: -2.9%), three times the pace wit- nessed during the Global Financial Crisis. Compared to the pre-Covid-19 growth trend, the pandemic will shave around EUR358bn from the global premium pool (life: Michaela Grimm, Senior Economist EUR249bn, P&C: EUR109bn).
[email protected] In line with our U-shaped scenario for the world economy, premium growth will re- bound in 2021 to +5.6% and total premium income should return to the pre-crisis level. The losses against the trend, however, may never be recouped: although long-term growth until 2030 may reach +4.4% (life: 4.4%, P&C: 4.5%), this will be slightly below previous projections.