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Is a Second Car Revolution Underway? How to Improve Our Capacity to Answer?

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Is a Second Car Revolution Underway? How to Improve Our Capacity to Answer? 25th Gerpisa International Colloquium, ! « R/Evolutions. New technologies and services in automobile industry », ! ENS Cachan, 14-16 June 2017 Is a second car revolution underway? How to improve our capacity to answer? Robert BOYER Michel FREYSSENET CNRS Research Director CNRS Research Director Co-founder of Regulation School Co-founder of GERPISA Introduction ! From the analyse of the past ! to a method to glimpse a possible future • The impasse of conventional methods of foresight • An hypothesis to find a more accurate method • A "conditions of possibility" method inspired by the history of ICE • Four conditions of possibility for an “automobile revolution” and three possible simultaneous scenarios Content 1. Brief recall of the “first automobile revolution” and new lessons from the past 2. Are the conditions of possibility of a “second automobile revolution” are reinforcing or not since 2012? 1. Brief recall on the “first automobile revolution” ! and new lessons from the past 1. Four no-technical conditions that allowed the replacement of horse drawn carriage by automobile and the universal adoption of oil ICE • The crisis of horse-drawn carriage for local transport required solutions • This requirement triggered a technological and entrepreneurial effervescence in different directions • A coalition of actors imposed the internal combustion engine of petrol, The Armies were a very important actor of the coalition for petrol vehicle • The unequal distribution of national income limited the car market during fifty years. 2. Two complementary lessons about the “first automobile revolution” to analyse the current situation • The replacement of horse drawn carriage by automobile vehicle was slow and different according to transport sectors and countries, but powerful to change profoundly the economic and social life. • The petrol vehicle, a less efficient energy solution, less reliable and criticized by many people at its origin, has nevertheless been adopted and developed until now at the price of very heavy and constant investments to improve it. In other historical conditions of supply and distribution, and with other coalitions, another energy and motorization could technically prevail and be adopted Elaboration Freyssenet M.,2004and Elaboration sources: WMVD,Main SMMT, JAMA, IRF, CCFA, OICA. vehicles 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 0 1 898 1 901 1 904 1 907 1 910 updatings 1 913 ofhorsedrawncarriage replacement The 1.1. 1 916 World automobile production by continent,1898-2015 automobile production World 1 919 1 922 by automobile vehicle was very vehicle by automobile 1 925 1 928 1 931 1 934 1 937 1 940 1 943 1 946 1 949 1 952 year 1 955 1 958 1 961 1 964 1 967 1 970 1 973 1 976 1 979 1 982 1 985 1 988 1 991 1 994 1 997 Asia-Oceania 2 000 Africa Europe 2 003 Americas slow 2 006 2 009 2 012 2 015 1950 years, before four best the automobiles, produced world millions No more 6 ! Number of registered automobiles and horse drawn carriages France UK USA Horses (1) Carriages Automobiles Horses (1) Automobile Horses (1) Automobile i 1905 3.170.000 1909 53.000 1911 3.027.000 1913 1.730.000 108.000 1919 236.000 18.000.800 7.576.888 1925 1.650.000 1928 1.115.800 1.332.400 1934 1.938.500 1940 3.140.000 1.350.000 1950 2.150.000 (1) Excluded: draught horses Table under development Source: C. Studeny, G. Mom The car fleet has surpassed the registered horse-drawn carriages, only in 1925 in USA, 1930 in France and UK. The complete replacement took place in 50s and 60s "The petrol car has absolutely no chance" Maurice Bixio, Director of the Compagnie Générale des Voitures, in Paris (Interview by London Pall Mall Gazette, 1897) Quoted by Gijs MOM Petrol car by Hergé Steam vehicle technology line Locomobile steam car Cugnot’s Fardier Stanley steam car 1924 2. Were the conditions of possibility ! of a “second automobile revolution” ! reinforcing or not, since 2012 ! and how could they change? 1. The crisis of petrol car was become more deep in general, but with variable intensity by region. How can the intensity of the crisis change in the future by region? 2. Many technical proposals, combined or not with new functions for car. What is the degree of maturity of each one and their possible limits? 3. Countries and carmakers were divided among several coalitions, according to three different scenarios of transition. Today the three scenario are become two. And one coalition seems to have become more powerful. Why? 4. Macroeconomic and political decisions to generalize a solution have been taken by some countries, but it is too early for many others 2.1. First condition! The crisis of petrol car was deepening, ! but with variable intensity by region. ! What can change the intensity of the crisis on regions? • An evolution of the main processes of the petrol vehicle crisis • Climate warming and air pollution, which have been regularly confirmed since 2012, have assumed increasing importance for major metropolises and many States • So, to improve our forecasting tool, a composite index is being developed • But, temporarily, we can reason more qualitatively and distinguish three degree of crisis intensity: low, medium, high Intensity of petrol car crisis in some countries or region: first step to a composite index! Table under development World USA EU Japan China Brazil Russia India Degree of oil car crisis medium high high high medium low high intensity Car for 1000 inhabitants 797 498 591 140 249 293 32 (2014) - Traffic congestion, low Urban areas, Only densified Urban areas, Urban areas, Urban areas, Urban areas, Some urban areas Urban areas, speed, loss of time holiday roads, urban areas holiday roads, holiday roads, holiday roads, holiday roads, holiday roads, industrial regions industrial regions industrial regions industrial regions industrial regions industrial regions Time Exp. Index (Time - 499.64 (34,58) - 274.76 (31,52) - 4399.10 (46,81) - 2979.14 (43,87) - 4177.04 (46,39) - 5424.79 (48,57) - 4172.18 (46,38) for home-work one way) - - - Costs - 5,9 bil $ (13 urb areas, France2013) - Road Traffic deaths 1.250.000 34.000 (128) 26.000 (80) 6.000 (66) 261.000 (1044) 47.000 (576) 27.000 (533) 208.000 (1340) 2013 Number (and by 5.900 (255) 15.000 (428) 100.000 registered. 2-3-4 wheels motorized vehicle) - Estimated GDP lost due 510 billions $ 1,9% 1,3% ? 1,2% 2,6% 3,0% to traffic road deaths 2,2% - Serious injured 10.000.000 2.300.000 207.000 (634) Local air pollution Urban areas Only dens urb area Urban areas Urban areas Urban areas Urban areas Urban areas Urban areas Industrial areas Industrial areas Industrial regions Industrial regions Industrial regions Industrial regions Industrial regions Industrial regions - Premature deaths 2.900.000 110.000 550.000 66.000 1.200.000 680.000 - Chronic diseases due to extern air pollution - Costs (Transport 50%) 496 Billions USD 658 billions USD 202 billions USD 1.247 billions USD 39 Billions USD 417 billions USD Global warming sensitive Very sensitive Climate disasters around Mediter- ranean sea, Green- land, Swiss - Urbanisation rate, 2015 54% 82% 93% 56% 74% 33% - in + 1 million cities 23% 45% 66% 25% 21% 15% - Urban sprawl specialisation of spaces 82% 79% and competi for land use - Increasing cost of car ownership - Car cost share in 19,3% 14,0% 9,5% 24,0% 19,7% household budget - 1l gasoline price 2012 0,8$ 1,6$ 1,6$ 1,1$ 1,1$ Peak oil Some aspects of oil car crisis Elaboration: Freyssenet M., 2017 Elaboration: Review ofWorld Energy 2016 Source: British Petroleum, Statistical million tonnes! 100 200 300 400 500 600 dues to air polluNon 1.200.000 premature deaths * by year, 261.000 deaths on the road China case: 0 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 1965! 1966! * Oil dependence 1967! 1968! 1969! 1970! 1971! for Reserves andofproduction Remainingyears Consumption, Proved Production, Oil 1972! 1973! ! 1974! 1975! 1976! 1977! 1978! 1979! 1980! 1981! 1982! 1983! 1984! according toBritish Petroleum according 1985! ! 1986! 1987! the same level production at 1988! Remaining years of Remaining 1989! 1965-2015 année 1990! 1991! ! 1992! 1993! ! 1994! 1995! 1996! 1997! ! 1998! ! 1999! 2000! 2001! 2002! 2003! 2004! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! Consumption 2009! China 2010! Production 2011! , 2012! ! 2013! ! 2014! 2015! ! 2016! 0,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 5,0 ! ! ! ! ! ! Proved Reserves by Production! Year number before exhausted reserves! What can change ! the intensity of the auto crisis? ! Test of the method on Chinese case • Does the transfer of polluting industries outside metropolises, as London did in the 1950s, make it less urgent or even unnecessary the radical change in the motorization of vehicles? • Is the dependence on hydrocarbons so serious? • Can China carry out an imperial policy securing oil supplies, as did the United States ? • Will “New Energies Vehicles” help solve the respiratory crisis or increase it? • The response for the possible fall of intensity of auto car crisis in China is rather negative 2.2. Second condition! The technological and entrepreneurial effervescence accentuated by the grafting of new functions Why the current degree of maturity of each solution is important ? • As during the “first automobile revolution”, expected and unexpected solutions are explored and tested. • The new fact is the grafting of new functions on alternative vehicles • A race for offering the most mature technology and force the others solutions to make more spending to catch up. • Electric battery solution took an important advance. The batteries autonomy and reliability increased more quickly and their prices have decreased more drastically than it was expected Flowering solutions and race to maturity low-consumption combustion engine, natural gas, liquefied gas, biogas, flexfuel, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric battery (with autonomy extender or not), fuel cell (hydrogen liquid or solid), compressed air, solar paints on car , etc.
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