25th Gerpisa International Colloquium, « R/Evolutions. New technologies and services in automobile industry », ENS Cachan, 14-16 June 2017
Is a second car revolution underway? How to improve our capacity to answer?
Robert BOYER Michel FREYSSENET CNRS Research Director CNRS Research Director Co-founder of Regulation School Co-founder of GERPISA Introduction From the analyse of the past to a method to glimpse a possible future
• The impasse of conventional methods of foresight
• An hypothesis to find a more accurate method
• A "conditions of possibility" method inspired by the history of ICE
• Four conditions of possibility for an “automobile revolution” and three possible simultaneous scenarios Content
1. Brief recall of the “first automobile revolution” and new lessons from the past
2. Are the conditions of possibility of a “second automobile revolution” are reinforcing or not since 2012?
1. Brief recall on the “first automobile revolution” and new lessons from the past
1. Four no-technical conditions that allowed the replacement of horse drawn carriage by automobile and the universal adoption of oil ICE
• The crisis of horse-drawn carriage for local transport required solutions
• This requirement triggered a technological and entrepreneurial effervescence in different directions
• A coalition of actors imposed the internal combustion engine of petrol, The Armies were a very important actor of the coalition for petrol vehicle
• The unequal distribution of national income limited the car market during fifty years.
2. Two complementary lessons about the “first automobile revolution” to analyse the current situation
• The replacement of horse drawn carriage by automobile vehicle was slow and different according to transport sectors and countries, but powerful to change profoundly the economic and social life.
• The petrol vehicle, a less efficient energy solution, less reliable and criticized by many people at its origin, has nevertheless been adopted and developed until now at the price of very heavy and constant investments to improve it. In other historical conditions of supply and distribution, and with other coalitions, another energy and motorization could technically prevail and be adopted 1.1. The replacement of horse drawn carriage by automobile vehicle was very slow
World automobile production by continent, 1898-2015
90 000 000
80 000 000
70 000 000 Africa No more 6
60 000 000 millions Asia-Oceania 50 000 000 world
vehicles produced 40 000 000 automobiles, 30 000 000 Europe the four best
20 000 000 years, before
10 000 000 1950 Americas
0 1 898 1 901 1 904 1 907 1 910 1 913 1 916 1 919 1 922 1 925 1 928 1 931 1 934 1 937 1 940 1 943 1 946 1 949 1 952 1 955 1 958 1 961 1 964 1 967 1 970 1 973 1 976 1 979 1 982 1 985 1 988 1 991 1 994 1 997 2 000 2 003 2 006 2 009 2 012 2 015
Main sources: WMVD, SMMT, JAMA, IRF, CCFA, OICA. Elaboration Freyssenet M., 2004 and updatings year Number of registered automobiles and horse drawn carriages
France UK USA Horses (1) Carriages Automobiles Horses (1) Automobile Horses (1) Automobile i
1905 3.170.000
1909 53.000 1911 3.027.000 1913 1.730.000 108.000 1919 236.000 18.000.800 7.576.888 1925 1.650.000 1928 1.115.800 1.332.400 1934 1.938.500 1940 3.140.000 1.350.000 1950 2.150.000
(1) Excluded: draught horses Table under development Source: C. Studeny, G. Mom The car fleet has surpassed the registered horse-drawn carriages, only in 1925 in USA, 1930 in France and UK. The complete replacement took place in 50s and 60s "The petrol car has absolutely no chance"
Maurice Bixio, Director of the Compagnie Générale des Voitures, in Paris (Interview by London Pall Mall Gazette, 1897)
Quoted by Gijs MOM
Petrol car by Hergé
Steam vehicle technology line Locomobile steam car
Cugnot’s Fardier
Stanley steam car 1924 2. Were the conditions of possibility of a “second automobile revolution” reinforcing or not, since 2012 and how could they change?
1. The crisis of petrol car was become more deep in general, but with variable intensity by region. How can the intensity of the crisis change in the future by region?
2. Many technical proposals, combined or not with new functions for car. What is the degree of maturity of each one and their possible limits?
3. Countries and carmakers were divided among several coalitions, according to three different scenarios of transition. Today the three scenario are become two. And one coalition seems to have become more powerful. Why?
4. Macroeconomic and political decisions to generalize a solution have been taken by some countries, but it is too early for many others
2.1. First condition The crisis of petrol car was deepening, but with variable intensity by region. What can change the intensity of the crisis on regions?
• An evolution of the main processes of the petrol vehicle crisis
• Climate warming and air pollution, which have been regularly confirmed since 2012, have assumed increasing importance for major metropolises and many States
• So, to improve our forecasting tool, a composite index is being developed
• But, temporarily, we can reason more qualitatively and distinguish three degree of crisis intensity: low, medium, high Intensity of petrol car crisis in some countries or region: first step to a composite index Table under development
World USA EU Japan China Brazil Russia India
Degree of oil car crisis medium high high high medium low high intensity
Car for 1000 inhabitants 797 498 591 140 249 293 32 (2014)
- Traffic congestion, low Urban areas, Only densified Urban areas, Urban areas, Urban areas, Urban areas, Some urban areas Urban areas, speed, loss of time holiday roads, urban areas holiday roads, holiday roads, holiday roads, holiday roads, holiday roads, industrial regions industrial regions industrial regions industrial regions industrial regions industrial regions Time Exp. Index (Time - 499.64 (34,58) - 274.76 (31,52) - 4399.10 (46,81) - 2979.14 (43,87) - 4177.04 (46,39) - 5424.79 (48,57) - 4172.18 (46,38) for home-work one way) - - - Costs - 5,9 bil € (13 urb areas, France2013) - Road Traffic deaths 1.250.000 34.000 (128) 26.000 (80) 6.000 (66) 261.000 (1044) 47.000 (576) 27.000 (533) 208.000 (1340) 2013 Number (and by 5.900 (255) 15.000 (428) 100.000 registered. 2-3-4 wheels motorized vehicle) - Estimated GDP lost due 510 billions $ 1,9% 1,3% ? 1,2% 2,6% 3,0% to traffic road deaths 2,2% - Serious injured 10.000.000 2.300.000 207.000 (634) Local air pollution Urban areas Only dens urb area Urban areas Urban areas Urban areas Urban areas Urban areas Urban areas Industrial areas Industrial areas Industrial regions Industrial regions Industrial regions Industrial regions Industrial regions Industrial regions
- Premature deaths 2.900.000 110.000 550.000 66.000 1.200.000 680.000 - Chronic diseases due to extern air pollution - Costs (Transport 50%) 496 Billions USD 658 billions USD 202 billions USD 1.247 billions USD 39 Billions USD 417 billions USD
Global warming sensitive Very sensitive Climate disasters around Mediter- ranean sea, Green- land, Swiss
- Urbanisation rate, 2015 54% 82% 93% 56% 74% 33% - in + 1 million cities 23% 45% 66% 25% 21% 15% - Urban sprawl specialisation of spaces 82% 79% and competi for land use - Increasing cost of car ownership - Car cost share in 19,3% 14,0% 9,5% 24,0% 19,7% household budget - 1l gasoline price 2012 0,8€ 1,6€ 1,6€ 1,1€ 1,1€
Some aspects of oil car crisis
China case:
* by year, 261.000 deaths on the road 1.200.000 premature deaths dues to air pollu on
* Oil dependence Peak oil Oil Production, Consumption, Proved Reserves and Remaining years of production for China, ! according to British Petroleum! 1965-2015!
600! 25,0!
Consumption!
500! Remaining years of 20,0!
production at the same level! ! ! 400!
! 15,0!
300! million tonnes million Production! 10,0! 200! Proved Reserves by Production Proved Reserves Year number before exhausted reserves exhausted before number Year
5,0! 100! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 0! ! ! ! ! ! 0,0! 2011 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 Source: British Petroleum, Statistical Review of World Energy 2016! année! Elaboration: Freyssenet M., 2017! What can change the intensity of the auto crisis? Test of the method on Chinese case
• Does the transfer of polluting industries outside metropolises, as London did in the 1950s, make it less urgent or even unnecessary the radical change in the motorization of vehicles?
• Is the dependence on hydrocarbons so serious?
• Can China carry out an imperial policy securing oil supplies, as did the United States ?
• Will “New Energies Vehicles” help solve the respiratory crisis or increase it?
• The response for the possible fall of intensity of auto car crisis in China is rather negative 2.2. Second condition The technological and entrepreneurial effervescence accentuated by the grafting of new functions Why the current degree of maturity of each solution is important ?
• As during the “first automobile revolution”, expected and unexpected solutions are explored and tested.
• The new fact is the grafting of new functions on alternative vehicles
• A race for offering the most mature technology and force the others solutions to make more spending to catch up.
• Electric battery solution took an important advance. The batteries autonomy and reliability increased more quickly and their prices have decreased more drastically than it was expected
Flowering solutions and race to maturity
low-consumption combustion engine, natural gas, liquefied gas, biogas, flexfuel, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric battery (with autonomy extender or not), fuel cell (hydrogen liquid or solid), compressed air, solar paints on car , etc.
Cetelem 2009 Increasing coopera on, JV, alliance, acquisi on to invest in connected, automa zed and shared electric car Table under development So ware ing. connec on automa on Car sharing Announced Coopera on with… Connec on level Coopera on with… Autonomous level Coopera on with… Stage of deployment recruitment (2017) PSA Samsung (Ar k cloud) In test phase of a fully autonomous driving Renault- 300 - Open Innova on Lab Customer of Mobileye Nissan Silicon Valley (IA), Tel Aviv Chronocam (VE, cyberséc), Paris (mobilité) - Sylpheo (cloud) - Direct connec on - Acquisi on of Intel French subsidiary FCA Google Google VW 1.000 LG, Take over of Here with . Ge 2010: on highway Mercedes, BMW, . Customer of Mobileye 2027: Level 5: Sedric Mercedes Take over of Here with BMW, Uber VW, 2,55 billions $ BMW 600 Take over of Here with Intel, Mobileye, Delphi Complete autonomy: Mercedes, VW, 2,55 billions $ 2021 with BMW INext Volvo Microso Uber Test sur XC90 San Francisco GM Cruise Automa on (0,5 M Test sur Bolt électrique $), Ly Customer of Mobileye Ford Vodafone Argo Al (1M$) Ford Smart Mobility LLC, Uber, Amazon use Insight&Analy cs Tesla Abandon Mobileye Internal solu on Toyota Invest 1 billion $ Oz branch Honda Kia 2030: level 100% Delphi 1000 Taxi fleet in Singapour Valeo 4200 Cruise 4U, USA tour Faurecia Parot Automo ve (2017) Waymo Google Map Ly Uber Volvo, Ford, Daimler Take over of O o Apple Baïdu Start-up FR: Vulog, Yugoko, Prove&Run, Pradeo, Op s A real new technological effervescence for all types of engine: but much more strong and advanced for the electrical solution Table under development ICE low oil Gas Biofuels Electric Fuel cell consumption (GNV+GPL) Flexfuel (BEV + PHEV) (incl. hybrid and E85) Energy Decarbonized gasoline 2d and 3d generation: - Renewable energies - gas hydrogen Higher octane gasoline algaes - Peroskite painting - Liquid hydrogen - Photovoltaic station - Solid hydrogen - Photovoltaic road Charging - Fast charging - Dynamic induction charge - Solar vehicle Storage - Lithium-ion improuvments - FlashBattery - Sodium-ion Battery - Graphen Battery1000km Powertrain - 48V Hybrid - Motor wheel (Protean - Variable compression Electric, 100 patents) engine - Motor axle - engine without camshafts - Opposed piston engine (Achates Power) Cockpit - Less space for Less space for activities - Less space for - internet, TV, reading, activities by connection by connection activities by connection game, meeting room - Depolluting of - Depolluting of - Depolluting of - Clean air conditioning conditioned air conditioned air conditioned air - Third living room Driving - More difficult - Total automation easier automation - Parking
Patents The batteries autonomy and reliability increased more quickly and their prices decreased more drastically than it was expected.
The economies of scale have not been necessary until now to lower costs significantly What are the level of technical effervescence and the degree of maturity of the preferred solutions? Testing the method in China case
• The technological effervescence in China is not so visible for us
• We know few ground researches about this topic
• But we know that the electric solution is the main direction of R&D
• We know also that Chinese government has authorised finally foreign carmakers to produce NEVs in JV with Chinese carmakers to boost them
• The main indication we have is the number of patents concerning Lithium-ion battery
From that we can know, it is not sure that Chinese producers are at the top level
Battery lithium-ion for VE
In 21 years (1995-2015) China has filed the same number of patents that Japan, United States South Korea together,
And his researchers published the same number of scientific articles on the subject that those of the United States
Lady Tatiana Bermudez Rodriguez, Flavia L. Consoni, “ Scientific and technological trends of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicule: insights from the application of bibliometric and patents analysis”, Gerpisa 2.3. Third condition Countries and car manufacturers are distinguished by their dominant coalition and divided into three transition scenarios that since 2012 have become two
• Level of oil reserve, type of urbanisation, available land explain generally the energy preference for clean cars by State. But not in all the cases
• Five years ago, we have proposed three scenarios for cleaner car and the conditions of possibility of each one: diversity scenario, progressive scenario, breaking scenario
• But the recent confrontation of opposed coalitions has obliged some carmakers to produce quickly all types of powertrain in the same time The degree of intensity of the crisis of the ICE vehicle generally explains the national energy preference for the road transport of the future, but with some interesting exceptions Table under development
Crisis Oil low Gas Biofuels Electric Fuel cell intensity consumption (GNV+GPL) Flexfuel (BEV + PHEV) degree (included hybrid) Great oil reserve, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Russia, Algeria low population Arabia density, concentred low Venezuela, urbanisation Libya, Nigeria, Medium oil reserve, USA Brazil California low population Mexico Norway density, extensive medium urbanisation
Little oil reserve, China medium population density, concentred high urbanisation
Little oil reserve, Great Britain medium population density, concentred high urbanisation
No oil reserve, Turkey India medium population Spain density, concentred high urbanisation
No oil reserve, high Italy Sweden until France, Denmark Japan population density, 2010 Netherland, South Korea space, concentred high Belgium urbanisation Sweden, Swiss, Austria The three scenarios for cleaner cars and their conditions of possibility
Scenario Diversity Progressivity Rupture « Revolution » is carried out over Progressive transition from the low Direct shift to EV a very long period, spreading out power thermic engine to the electric (rechargeable, hybrid , electric Characteristics of R&D investments. motor, bathery and fuel cell. cars) . States favor different energies : Changing architrcture and oil, agrofuel, electricity, automotive functions hydrogen, etc. Manufacturers offer all the engines. Magnitude of the Variable, depending on the Slow rise of energy, environmental Sufficient strong and durable. energy, country, given their resources, and geopolitical difficulties in most Demanding quick and mass environmental and demographic and economic of countries. solutions. geopolitical crisis. growth. Equal in each of the technical Transition to electric , technically, Effervescence, transfer of Tecnological channels industrialy, and financially innovations from other sectors,
innovations controlled, starting with high range starts-ups, notably in the lité i and niche vehicles. production and storage of electricity Different, depending on the Formed by global manufactureres Some countries, car makers and Conditions Conditions
de possib de Coalition energy geopolitics of the countries and the States of their country of new entrants, seeking to seize concerned origin. the opportunity to become leaders. Macroeconomic At least one country with an Slowdow in the pace of growth Public aide for purchase in a and societal important auto market, leader in rate of emerging countries and of first phase, penalization of the conditions. each of the possible routes their political wehigth. thermic engines. Progress in purchasing power. Plural revolution , intensity « Revolution » taking place over a A thrilling « Revolution » Consequences according countries. Markets very long period, diffusion by spots. But heterogeneity.Sharp vestments spreading out investments in R& D. generaliisations spread over rise . decades. Evolution of current cleaner car scenarios and the test of a hypothetical scenario Scenario Diversity and « all at once » Rupture Resilience? . Direct shift to EV Carmakers react and made . States favor different energies: (rechargeable, hybrid , electric substantial improvements in Characteristics oil, LPG, agro-fuel, electricity, cars). energy performance and ICE hydrogen, etc depollution. . The manufacturers offer all the . Changes on architrcture and Alternative engines never requested engines. automotive functions competitive.
Magnitude of the Variable, depending on the Sufficiently strong and durable. Average to low enegy, country, given their resources, Demanding rapid and mass enviromental and demographic and economic solutions. geopolitical crisis growth Equal in each of the technical Effervescence, transfer of Studies and investments Technological channels innovations from other sectors, concentrated on a new
innovations starts-ups, notably in the generation of ICE. production and storage of electricity Different depending on the energy Some countries, car makers and Strong lobbying of traditional Conditions Conditions
de possibilité de Coalition geopolitics of the countries new entrants, seeking to seize car-makers on public authorities. concerned. the opportunity to become Defeat of « ecologist ». leaders. Macroeconomic At least one country with an Public aid for purchase in a first Abandonment of aids for the and societal important auto market , leader on phase, penalization of the purchase of alternative vehicles. conditions each of the routes. thermic engines. Abandonment of restrictions on Progress in purchasing power petrol cars. Plural revolution, intensity A thrilling « Revolution » Consequences depending on the country, diffusion by plates. But hetergeneous market. Strong generaliisations spread over investment increase decades.
2.3. continued But the EV coalition and scenario of rupture are already more advanced and powerful than the others
Why?
• The coalitions were not formed at the same time. It is one of the reasons of the difference of maturity level of the technical solutions
• The coalitions for EV solution were the first formed. The leadership to accelerate this solution has been taken by the major world metropolises and some important countries for car market growth
• These coalitions have just been spectacularly strengthened by the recent rallying of car builders, previously opposed to them.
• The temporary alignment of divergent interests and objectives
The current coalitions for… Table under development Oil low consumption ICE Gas Biofuels Electric Hydrogen Fuel Cell (included hybrid and E85) (GNV + GPL) Flexfuel (BEV + PHEV) Public authorities, Trump Administration Italy Brazil, Sweden until… The majority of urban countries metropolises, Europe, China, India, Québec, California, Israel, Ireland, etc. Department Armies, Transport Transport Transport Health, Housing Armies Carmakers Toyota until 2013, Piech’s Fiat - Brazilian subsidiaries of Tesla, BYD, Bolloré, Toyota, Honda, Hyundaï, VW Fiat, VW, Chevrolet, – Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault, BMW, Daimler Ford, Volvo, Saab until… BMW, Mercedes, VW, GM, Ford, VW, Toyota, Honda Suppliers Magnetti Marelli Continental, Valeo, Bosch General Electric, software industry, internet companies, Professional organisations Energy producers Some oil companies Gazprom, Sonatrach, Agrobusiness Total, Shell Hydrogen producer (Air and suppliers All electric companies liquide) All batteries producers Insurance, Banks Maif
Public research CAR, IFPEN,
International Organisations Agencies ADEME, EAFO
Favourable Transport companies Brazilian ? Delivery companies, Island buyers inhabitants, Car urban rentals, taxis fleets, media Traditional automotive magazine “social networks” NGO Automobile Clubs, LowCVP, LowCVP, IEDC, ICCT, LowCVP, Transport&Environment (50 organisations), consortium - Electrification Coalition: - Hydrogen Council (2009) Nissan, FedEX, (2017): previous General Electric, Johnson carmakers +Air Liquide, Controls-Saft, Fisker, A123 Alstom, Anglo systems, Ener 1, Coda American,, ENGIE,, Energy, - Kawasaki, Royal Dutch USABC (Chrysler, Ford, Shell, The Linde Group, GM) Total, Plastic Omnium - JV JXTG Nippon Oil&Energy, Toyota to expand station network Engineers asso- SAE SAE ciations and schools What can be the sustainability of the NEVs coalition in China?
• The Chinese state, many provinces and metropolitan areas have constantly reaffirmed and strengthened their choice for NEVs, for three main reasons
• There are in China a “spontaneous” Evs production and market of two and three wheelers and of low speed four wheelers
• Can a political upheaval, always possible, change the choices made so far, as in USA? Or are choices constrained in China to such an extent that they can not be modified?
• For the moment, and subject to the investigations to make, the coalition for NEWS seems reinforcing in China 5 successive five-year plans focusing on NEVs
New energy vehicles in China: policies, demonstration, and progress Huiming Gong & Michael Q. Wang & Hewu Wang. In Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · November 2012
Low Speed EVs Low speed EV sales in China 2009-2015 - 500.000 personal 500000 vehicles 450000 - 2 millions commercial 400000 and agricultural 350000 vehicles 300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0 2009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 2 015 2 016
Source: Bo Chem, Midler, 2015
25 millions of electric bicycles sold each years 2.4. Fourth condition Macroeconomic and political decisions to generalize the chosen solution have been taken by some countries, but it is too early for many others
The fourth condition makes it possible to complete the construction of alternative vehicles market by:
• a constant distribution of a part of national income to large social groups to be able to continue to buy new cars
• a synchronisation of all it is necessary to use practically the new means of transport
• eventually, subsidies to help the purchase of the first alternative cars, necessary more expensive at the beginning, before that the economies of scale allows to decrease the cost of production
• The risk to create an artificial temporary market ?
Subsidies for Evs by country To be compared with
130 to 160 billions $ each year to support oil energy for transport in OCDE and main countries
Substantial help in France, but not much more important than those offered by United States or the Netherlands, and far behind those of Norway
Extrait de: Panorama 2017, IFPEN Are na onal sales EVs differences explained by incen ves for the purchase of EVs and restric ons on the use of ICE vehicles ?
Yes, correlated, but not always
Germany case
Extract of “Electric vehicles in Europe: gearing up for a new phase?”, 2014, Roundtable Amsterdam Founda on and McKinsey&Company China is one of the countries fulfilling the fourth condition … but not totally
• Uncertainties about the Chinese growth model by investments and the political capacity to change it in growth model by consumption
• The subsidies policy for the purchase of electric vehicles is sometimes applied or modified by brutal administrative decisions that disrupt the market. Nevertheless, this not prevented the take-off of NEVs sales since 2014
Until now sales have depended mainly on the number of models placed on the market
EVs sales and number of EVs models for sale in EU!
300 000! 50!
45! 250 000! 40!
EVs sales! 35! ! 200 000!
! 30! models number! 150 000! 25! EVs sales 20!
100 000! of EVs models number 15!
10! 50 000! 5! In China 0! 0! 2 010! 2 011! 2 012! 2 013! 2 014! 2 015! 2 016! Titre! NEVs sales and model number in China, 2009-2016! Total! models number! 600000! 80!
70! In EU 500000! 60!
400000!
50! ! !
300000! 40! NEVs sales
30! number NEVs model 200000! model number! 20!
100000! sales! 10! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 0! ! 0! 2009 2 011 2 010 2 012 2 013 2 015 2 016 2 014 year! Conclusion The World that Change the Machine
• The most important of this work: the proposed perfectible method, more than the necessarily provisional conclusion on the future
• Is the universalization of a technical solution possible in the future, including by countries where the solution is not the best?
• The need for a social science approach to overcome the ever-frequent technological determinism
• The future lasts a long time