PUBLICOPINION Solid and Professional 1/2018
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POLISH PUBLICOPINION Solid and Professional 1/2018 ISSN 2083-1714 CONTENTS Reactions to triggering of Article 7 of TEU against Poland Reactions to triggering of Article 7 of TEU against On December 20, 2017, the European Commission decided to launch Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union against Poland and asked the Council of the EU to Poland declare the existence of a clear risk of a serious violation of European values in Poland. At the same time, the Commission issued the fourth recommendation First evaluations on the rule of law, in which it called on the Polish authorities to amend the laws of the government reforming the judiciary and "restore the independence and legitimacy of the of Mateusz Morawiecki Constitutional Tribunal." The activities of the EU institutions aimed at protecting the rule of law in Poland Evaluation of Andrzej have aroused public controversy from the beginning. Triggering Article 7 of the TEU, like the previous actions of the European Commission and the European Duda's presidency Parliament, is received ambiguously. The European Commission's request to in the middle of the term declare the existence of a clear risk of a serious violation of European values in Poland is slightly more often perceived critically than approved. Over two-fifths Subjective well-being of respondents (43%) believe that triggering Article 7 of the TEU is unjustified, in 2017 while 38% are convinced of the legitimacy of this step. In the opinion of nearly half of Poles (46%) the decision of the European Commission results from aversion to the Law and Justice (PiS) and the current authorities of our country. Fewer respondents (37%) perceive it as an expression of concern for the state of IN ADDITION the rule of law and In your opinion, triggering of the Article 7 of the TEU TO THE REPORTS REFERRED TO ABOVE, democracy in Poland. In by the EC towards Poland is: THE FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED addition, in the public justified unjustified Don't know RECENTLY (IN POLISH): 38% 43% 19% opinion, the EC's request · to declare the existence results from concern for results from aversion Politician of the Year 2017 in Poland and the state of the rule of law to the Law and Justice in the World of a clear risk of a serious and democracy in Poland and current Polish authorities Don't know 37% 46% 17% · The Most Important Event of the Year violation of European 2017 for Poland and for the World values in Poland is more acceptable form of pressure unacceptable form of pressure on the Polish authorities on the Polish authorities Don't know · Evaluations of the Year 2017 and often considered as 34% 45% 21% Forecasts for the Year 2018 unacceptable (45%) · Does Warsaw Need New Memorials? than as acceptable (34%) form of pressure on the Polish authorities. · Life Satisfaction Poles are divided in opinions on whether our country should take into account · Political Party Preferences in the recommendations of the European Commission regarding withdrawal of Voivodships some changes in the judiciary and the functioning of the Constitutional Tribunal. · Political Party Preferences after Cabinet In total, 44% of respondents think that Poland should meet the Commission's Reshuffle expectations. Fewer people (41%) are of the opposite opinion. Proponents and · Opinions about Parliament and opponents of taking into account the recommendations of the European President Commission approach the issue from different perspectives. People who favour · Social Moods in January the adoption of EU recommendations justify their position by the conviction that · Trust in Politicians after Cabinet the rule of law in Poland is at stake, rather than expressing concerns that failure Reshuffle to take into account the expectations of the European Commission may have · Expectations for Mateusz Morawiecki's negative, political and economic consequences for Poland. Opponents of taking Government into account the Commission's recommendations more often refer to the sovereignty of Poland than to the lack of threat to the rule of law in our country. Should Poland take into account European Commission's recommendations regarding the withdrawal of some First evaluations of the changes in the judiciary and the functioning of the Constitutional Tribunal? of the government Yes, because failure to do so may have negative, political and economic of Mateusz Morawiecki consequences for Poland 16% The government of Mateusz Morawiecki has been received No, because Poland is a sovereign by society quite well. Reactions to its creation are clearly 26% country and cannot succumb Yes, because the rule of law to this kind of pressure in Poland is under threat 28% better than those expressed over two years ago at the formation of Beata Szydło's cabinet. Nearly half of 15% 15% No, because the rule of law respondents (46%) express hope that the situation in Don't know in Poland is not threatened Poland will improve in connection with the establishment Triggering legal mechanisms ensuring that member states of the government of Mateusz Morawiecki. Much smaller adhere to EU values, including maintaining the rule of law, groups of respondents react to the formation of the against Poland has not raised concerns about the government with disappointment that nothing will introduction of sanctions against our country. At present, change (15%) or with fear of deterioration (13%). slightly more than half of respondents (51%) are Indifference to the government is declared by almost one concerned with the possibility of sanctions against fifth of respondents (18%). Poland, whereas two fifths of respondents (40%) are not Reactions to the formation of the government of: afraid of this. % If, as the next step of the procedure, there is a vote in the Beata Szydło (XII '15) 34 12 37 13 4 European Council on the determination of the existence of Mateusz Morawiecki (I '18) 46 15 13 18 8 a serious and persistent violation of European values by Hope for Disappointment Fear of Indifference Don't the better that nothing will deterioration know Poland, which may result in the introduction of sanctions, change in public opinion at least one country would take Poland's The level of acceptance of Mateusz Morawiecki as Prime side. A total of 63% of respondents share this opinion, in which 35% believe that there would be more such Minister is quite large. More than half of respondents countries. (54%) are satisfied with the new head of government. Dissatisfaction is expressed by every fifth respondent If there is a vote in the European Council on the (20%). Beata Szydło was much less widely accepted at the determination of the existence a serious and permanent violation by Poland of European values, which in the future beginning of her term in office. may result in the introduction of sanctions against our The first evaluations of Mateusz Morawiecki as Prime country, how do you think EU member states would behave? Minister are better than Beata Szydło's last. The new head One country would take of government has slightly more supporters, but far fewer Poland's side 28% opponents than Beata Szydło in December 2017. No country would take Poland's side, voting against the determination More countries 35% would take Poland's of the existence of a serious 19% Are you satisfied that Beata Szydło/Mateusz Morawiecki and persistent violation side of European values in our country is Prime Minister? 18% 60% Yes Don't know 54% 50% Respondents convinced that at least one member state 40% would share Poland's position by voting against the 30% No determination of the existence of a serious and permanent violation of European values by our country, 20% 20% most often spontaneously mentioned Hungary in this 10% 0% context (77%). Relatively many people count on support I 2016 V X I 2017 V XII I 2018 from the Czech Republic (22%), Slovakia (16%) and Bulgaria (14%). Moreover, Lithuania (8%), Germany (7%) Don't know omitted and Romania (5%) were mentioned. Generally, Poles The new government receives relatively large public expect solidarity above all from the countries of our region support at the commencement of its activity, larger than or, more broadly, post-communist countries. Beata Szydło's cabinet at the beginning of the term. Over two-fifths of respondents (42%) are supporters Mateusz More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in Morawiecki's government. Only every seventh Polish: "Reactions on Triggering Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union against Poland", January 2018. Fieldwork for national sample: respondent (14%) self-identifies as opponent of the new January 2018, N=951. The random address sample is representative for government. One-third (33%) keep their distance to the adult population of Poland. government and declare indifference. 2 The first ratings of Mateusz Morawiecki's cabinet are In your opinion, president Andrzej Duda, when making better than the last ratings of Beata Szydło's. The new decisions: government has far fewer opponents. is primarily guided 47% by the interests of the country Attitude to the government of Beata Szydło/Mateusz Morawiecki Don't know 13% 50% 45% 40% is primarily guided by the interests Supporters 42% 40% of the political circles from which he originates 35% Opponents 33% 30% The vast majority of respondents (77%) believe that the 25% Indifferent 20% current president well represents Poland abroad. 15% 14% 10% How does president Andrzej Duda represent Poland 5% abroad? 0% I V X I V XII I Very well 2016 2017 2018 27% Don't know omitted Don't know 9% Very badly 5% More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in 9% Polish: "The First Ratings of Mateusz Morawiecki's Government", Moderately badly 50% Moderately well January 2018.