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Insights Into the Current Tobacco Farming Landscape in Malawi January 2019 About Fraym Fraym Was Born out of Frustration

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Insights Into the Current Tobacco Farming Landscape in Malawi January 2019 About Fraym Fraym Was Born out of Frustration Insights into the Current Tobacco Farming Landscape in Malawi January 2019 About Fraym Fraym was born out of frustration. Before Fraym, we faced one consistent and fundamental challenge across the African continent— the lack of hyper-local data and analytics to make informed decisions. Many important decisions are made with highly inadequate information. Often, analysis is limited to anecdotes, high-level or aggregated statistics, or gut instincts. Fraym offers a better way. FRAYM || METHODS Acquire Data geo-tagged household surveys remote sensing data satellite imagery On-Board Data compile clean harmonize geospatially-enable Produce Data Layers machine learning proprietary algorithms artificial intelligence automation Deliver to Customers data layer APIs front-end tools analytic services Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY || TOBACCO-FARMING HOUSEHOLDS The 5 percent of households engaged in tobacco farming share many challenges with other agricultural households. They also tend to be more diversified, connected, and exposed. Shared challenges with other agricultural households Limited access to reliable markets Few rural areas have reliable access to agricultural markets. Rumphi Limited food security and diet diversity 1 in 4 tobacco-farming households has a diverse diet, 3 in 4 are food insecure, and 1 in 3 children in tobacco households is stunted. Key differences of tobacco-farming households Kasungu Higher rate of male decision-makers Dowa Significantly more likely to have a male as the household head and crop decision-maker. More connected to select assets and financial services Higher mobile phone, bicycle, and bank account ownership. More agricultural diversification 65 percent work with livestock and average household grows 3 crops. Stunting rate in areas with tobacco Greater exposure to market shocks 1 activity (% children under 5) 40 percent are affected by high input costs and 75 percent are affected by low output prices, a higher proportion than other 0 35+ agricultural households. Note 1: 1 km x 1 km grids show the proportion of children under five affected by stunting. Areas with a probability of tobacco farming less than 60 percent are shown in gray. Water bodies are shown in blue. Source: Fraym, Fourth Integrated Household Survey 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY || VULNERABLE TOBACCO-FARMING HOUSEHOLDS Generally, tobacco-farming households with smaller farms and limited market access are more vulnerable. Other components of vulnerability vary spatially. The northernmost tobacco- Chitipa growing areas have seen precipitation decrease more than other tobacco areas, suggesting that drought-resilience should be a key consideration for alternative livelihoods. Precipitation decrease Mzuzu Soil quality and market access are also challenges in this region. 0 55 mm/decade Mzimba Kasungu Total nitrogen (mg/kg) Dowa 700 2,000 + Vulnerable population Around Mzimba and Mzuzu, soil quality and 0 1,000+ deforestation pose a potential challenge to the Mchinji viability of both tobacco and potential alternative crops. Stunting rates above 35 percent are an issue for The central districts with tobacco activity have pockets of this region as well. the highest population density. This translates into high numbers of stunted children and people in vulnerable communities. Note 1: Main map shows areas with the highest probability of tobacco activity in red, and areas with a probability of tobacco farming less than 60% in gray. Each inset map shows select indicators at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. Water bodies are shown in blue. Source: Fraym, Isric World Soil Information, Malawi Hazards and Vulnerability tool, Fourth Integrated Household Survey 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY || DIVERSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES Given tobacco’s relatively higher per hectare production costs and falling price, alternative crops like groundnut, soya and other sources of livelihood, including livestock and milk production, offer increasingly competitive income opportunities. Livestock Nationally, only about 10 percent of tobacco - farming households own cows, but in Chitipa Groundnut District, this number jumps to 25 percent. In Mchinji, Kasungu, and Dowa, smallholder Stunting rates are also lower around Chitipa, tobacco farmers could produce an estimated suggesting that benefits may extend beyond 13,000 metric tons of additional groundnut using income into health and other areas. improved seed varieties and inputs.³ In these districts, per hectare sales could grow from 115,000 MWK to 265,000 MWK. Soya In Mchinji, Kasungu, and Dowa, smallholder tobacco farmers could produce an estimated 11,000 metric tons of additional soyabean using improved seed varieties and inputs. Per hectare Milk production sales for tobacco farmers in these districts could Only 1 in 5 tobacco-farming households that grow from 125,000 MWK to 375,000 MWK. own cows report producing milk, despite smallholder milk profits being high. Milk profits are particularly high in Lilongwe District, where per cow profits1 are over 150,000 MWK per year. Note 1: Per cow profits are the difference between sale value of all milk produced by a household in the last year and all costs associated directly with milk production, excluding the cost of the cows producing milk. Note 2: Water bodies are shown in blue. Districts with no households reporting activity related to tobacco cultivation, and districts with fewer than ten responses related to tobacco activity are shown in gray. Note 3: Improved yields were estimated based on data from the Feed the Future Soyabean Innovation Lab and input from the Agricultural Transformation Initiative team. Estimated revenue is based on average per hectare soya and groundnut revenue for tobacco-farming households in the three selected districts. Source: Fraym, Fourth Integrated Household Survey 8 I. Overview of tobacco activity II. Tobacco farmers in context I. Comparison with non-agricultural households II. Comparison with other agricultural households Outline III. Farmer segmentation IV. Investigation of potential alternatives V. Conclusion and recommendations VI. Appendices and sources Overview of tobacco activity TOBACCO ACTIVITY || LOCATION Tobacco activity is primarily concentrated in the northern and central regions of Malawi, and about 1 million people live in households engaged in tobacco farming. Nationally, only about 1 in 20 families cultivates tobacco in home plots. However, they make up 1 nearly one-third of all households in districts like Rumphi Rumphi, Dowa, and Kasungu. Over 20 percent of the population of Malawi, or 2 about 4 million people, live in areas where Kasungu tobacco is likely cultivated.1 Dowa Population pressures, weather patterns, and the availability of other commercial crops make 3 tobacco cultivation less desirable in many parts of southern Malawi. Probability of tobacco activity2 60% 85% + Note 1: Areas where tobacco is likely cultivated are areas with a probability of tobacco activity greater than or equal to 60 percent. Note 2: 1 km x 1 km grids show the estimated probability of tobacco being farmed in the area. Areas with a probability of tobacco farming less than 60 percent are shown in gray. Water bodies are shown in blue. 11 Source: Fraym, Fourth Integrated Household Survey TOBACCO ACTIVITY || SOIL QUALITY Ensuring that farmers have access to fertilizers is crucial to increasing crop yields in areas with poor soil quality, as measured by nitrogen levels and organic carbon content.1 Too little soil nitrogen limits plant growth. Parts of northern tobacco areas have Mzuzu low levels of total nitrogen in Mzimba soil. Legume crops, such as soybean and groundnut, may improve nitrogen levels. Kasungu Mchinji Lilongwe Organic carbon content aids in soil microbe health, leading to increased nutrient availability for crops. Parts of Mzimba district have low soil organic content for the soil type in that area. Total nitrogen (mg/kg)2 OrganiC carbon (g/kg)3 700 2,000+ 3 20 Note 1: It is important to note that the evaluation of soil quality is a complex science. Total nitrogen and organic carbon are just two of many soil quality metrics. Low nitrogen levels are not a direct indicator of farming viability, as it is also important to also consider carbon to nitrogen levels and soil type in a given area. See Appendix A for more information on soil type. Note 2: 1 km² grids show predictions of soil organic carbon in g/kg at 30-60 cm depth. Areas with probability of tobacco farming less than 60 percent are shown in gray. Note 3: 1 km² grids show predictions of soil total nitrogen content in mg/kg (ppm) at 0-30 cm depth. SourCes: Fraym; Isric World Soil Information, Africa Soil Grids, 2015 12 TOBACCO ACTIVITY || DEFORESTATION Deforestation in tobacco-growing areas is most pronounced in Mzimbadistrict and could be caused by cutting trees to clear land for tobacco farming or for curing tobacco. Mzimba District Mzuzu The western area of Mzimba district has experienced pockets of deforestation since 2001, 1 but the scale is less dramatic than in certain non- tobacco areas. Key areas of concern for deforestation are near 2 Mzuzu, along the Northern lake shore, and in pockets of the South. Loss of tree cover, 2001 - 20141 Low tree cover High tree cover Loss in tree cover detected, 2001 - 2014 Note 1: 1 km x 1 km squares show the extent of tree cover in the year 2001 and whether or not the area has experienced a loss in tree cover, as detected by satellite imagery, in 2014. Tree cover is defined as vegetation taller than 5 meters in height. Water bodies are shown in blue. Areas with a probability of tobacco farming less than 60 percent are shown in gray. Source: Global Forest Watch, Fraym 13 TOBACCO ACTIVITY || ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY Although less pronounced than elsewhere in Malawi, temperature and precipitation trends in tobacco-growing areas are still concerning for the long-term viability of tobacco cultivation. Tobacco-growing areas have generally experienced Rumphi slightly above-average Mzuzu increases in temperature compared to the rest of the country. Kasungu Kasungu Mchinji Lilongwe The tobacco-growing area around Rumphi city has experienced the most concerning decrease in rainfall over the past three decades.
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