ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT Food Security Update WATCH WWWAAARRRNNNIIINNNGGG February 2006 EMERGENCY

CONTENTS Summary and Implications Summaries and timeline ...... 1 Markets and Prices ...... 2 Prolonged dry spells in some districts have caused fears of reduced maize production from Special Focus: Dry spells pose a the initial estimate of about 2.4 million metric tons (MT). Even if the rains resume, the threat to crop Production ...... 4 crops may not recover in some parts of the country, and affected households will be food Appendix: Prices compared to insecure this season. Apart from maize, the production of other crops such as beans, MVAC Scenarios...... 6 tobacco, cassava and sweet potatoes has also suffered. More details about the impact of the dry spells on crop production will be provided when the second round production figures are presented.

The maize supply situation in ADMARC markets remains tight. Many ADMARC markets have no stocks for sale, leaving the local markets as the only option for household maize purchases. Unfortunately, most of the private traders are concentrated in local markets located in or near the urban areas where there is more purchasing power and accessibility than in the rural remote areas. With fewer traders supplying remote rural markets with maize, supplies and prices are more erratic.

The hunger season has now reached its peak. In an effort to meet their immediate food needs, some of the households are engaging in piece work in exchange for food or cash, selling livestock at reduced prices, selling firewood, etc. Households targeted by food aid distribution programs continue to benefit, and the assistance has helped to mitigate the negative impacts of this year’s hunger season.

Seasonal Timeline

Current Hazard Summary

• Local market maize prices continue to rise at an unprecedented rate, exacerbating food access problems for an increasing number of people at a time of the year when most households have run out of their own production and are entirely dependent on markets for food. • Prolonged dry spells, especially in parts of the central and northern regions of the country, cause concerns over production prospects in the region. • Scarcity of casual labor opportunities and a drop in livestock prices negatively affects household income and ability to buy food.

Food Security Summary

The hunger season is now at its peak. The number of people seeking casual employment has grown. Unfortunately, most agricultural activities have been completed and, consequently, there is little demand for casual labor, the main source of income for majority of the poor rural households. People from areas surrounding cities are begging for cash to buy food.

FEWS NET is a USAID funded activity. Comments or questions regarding this report can be addressed to Sam Chimwaza, FEWS NET representative for Malawi: FEWS NET/Malawi, Off Chilambula Road, Old Town, P.O. Box 30455, Lilongwe 3, MALAWI (Tel) 265 1 754892; (Fax) 265 1 754892; Email:[email protected]

Disclaimer: The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

MALAWI: FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006

The crops in the field are beginning to mature, especially in the southern region and parts of the central region. In a few areas, some of the households, particularly those not targeted with food aid, have begun to harvest green maize for consumption. Although consumption of green maize as a snack is considered normal behavior, more households have been using the green maize as the main source of food as they cannot afford to buy maize at the prevailing high prices. This will have a negative impact on the final harvest and will push poorer households, who already produce insufficient quantities of food, into a vicious circle of chronic and deepening food insecurity. With the termination of food aid distributions at the end of March, it is feared that many households will be forced to prematurely harvest their maize. It may be necessary, if resources permit, to extend food aid distribution in some areas to April/May when the maize is fully matured and dry.

Because of the high price of maize, some poor households have been forced to substitute cheaper maize husks for maize grain and prepare an inferior quality of the staple food, nsima. Those who can afford a bit of maize mix the two to increase the amount of flour they obtain from the little money they have. Maize husks are not used for human consumption in normal years and are rarely found on the market. However, in bad years when maize grain prices soar, husks surface in the local markets as a cheaper substitute source of food. The wide availability of maize husks in the local markets this year, especially in the rural markets, is a manifestation of the severity of the food security problem.

Households that have livestock are selling Table 1: Commodity Price Comparison their animals to obtain cash for food. Commodity Unit of Price/unit last Price/unit this However, livestock prices in some areas Measurement year (MK) year (MK) have dropped as a result of the high volume Maize Pail 300 - 350 900 - 1,300 of distress sales. Table 1 compares current Green Maize Cob 5 -10 7 – 15 livestock prices with those over same time Cassava Tuber 0.50 -10 5 – 20 last year in Chamama Extension Planning European Potatoes Pail 250 -300 450 – 500 Area (EPA) in District. The table Maize husks Pail N/A 350 – 450 Dried Cassava Pail N/A 400 furtrher shows that while the price of food Chips has at least doubled, the price of livestock Beans Pail 1,200 1,900 has drastically fallen, typical of the hunger Cattle Each 15,000 - 25,000 9,000 – 15,000 season. In Kasungu District, dried cassava Goats Each 1,500 – 2,500 800 – 1,200 chips and maize husks are not typically used Sheep Each 1,800 – 3,000 700 – 1,000 for making nsima flour. Yet, due to food Pig Each 2,500 – 4,000 800 – 1,500 Chicken Each 150 – 250 75 – 150 insecurity, some of the households are Source: FEWS NET/ Malawi forced to buy dried cassava chips just to have something to eat. In addition, maize husks are also found in many local markets with prices as high as MK350 to MK450 per pail, which is equivalent to the price of maize grain in a normal year. The situation is similar in many parts of the rural areas in the country.

Markets and Prices

February is the peak of the hunger season. Figure 1: Local Market Maize Price Ranges, April 2005 to February 2006 Many households will have depleted their food stocks from last year’s harvest, and the February current year’s harvest is not ready for January consumption until sometime in March/April, December especially for the central and northern November regions. This results in an increased demand October for marketed food commodities, especially September maize, pushing up maize prices in local August markets. In a bad year such as this one, the July price increases are dramatic, because of the scarcity and an ineffective supply response. June Due to the scarcity of typical maize supplies May this year (normally available within Malawi April or neighboring Mozambique), traders are 0 1020304050607080 Malawi Kwacha/kg finding it difficult to source adequate FEWSNet/Malawi Source:MoAFS quantities of maize. When they do, the

2 MALAWI: FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006 prices are extremely high. These high prices, coupled with the increase in demand, push up maize prices in the local markets. Maize prices in February ranged from MK20.83/kg at Misuku market in to MK67.75/kg at market in . Last year at this time, the lowest prices were MK12.5 and MK23 at Bangula market in and Namwera market in Mangochi District, respectively. Figure 1 shows that price ranges stabilized a bit in October to December, which coincides with the period when there was a relatively smooth flow along the food aid pipeline and a stable flow of government maize imports for sale in ADMARC markets. This suggests that the policies and programs have played a significant role in stabilizing the maize prices in the local markets. The price variation has since increased significantly – see January and February 2006 data in Figure 1.

Table 2: LOCAL MARKET MAIZE PRICE COMPARISON - JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 2006 Market January February % change Market January February % change Market January February % change NKHATABAY 56.22 50.62 -10% KASUNGU 43.29 49.35 14% THETE 39.25 51.00 30% NTONDA 46.00 46.00 0% MISUKU 18.05 20.83 15% NAMBUMA 36.74 47.75 30% MWANZA 48.68 49.09 1% BALAKA 53.64 62.68 17% NSANJE 43.96 58.54 33% LILONGWE 33.25 33.83 2% 38.27 44.84 17% MTAKATAKA 49.67 66.33 34% CHIRADZULU 54.92 56.03 2% BEMBEKE 41.28 48.75 18% BVUMBWE 42.00 56.25 34% NKHOTAKOTA 48.67 49.67 2% DOWA 30.92 37.03 20% LUNZU 45.87 62.65 37% NANJIRI 34.82 35.91 3% TSANGANO T-OFF 40.77 49.01 20% CHITIPA 31.21 42.79 37% NSUNDWE 42.70 45.00 5% MZIMBA 33.91 40.98 21% MONKEY BAY 49.07 67.75 38% BANGULA 50.59 53.50 6% LIZULU 41.26 50.00 21% NTCHISI 38.76 53.65 38% LUCHENZA 42.50 45.00 6% MANGOCHI 49.10 60.09 22% JALI 40.19 55.80 39% SALIMA 47.67 50.53 6% PHALOMBE 55.08 67.51 23% THONDWE 41.73 58.57 40% NAMWERA 43.38 46.32 7% MITUNDU 41.53 51.18 23% 26.10 37.36 43% NKHOMA 32.53 35.00 8% 44.27 54.88 24% MIGOWI 44.11 63.55 44% SANTHE 30.52 33.37 9% NGABU 48.33 60.00 24% NCHALO 42.22 62.00 47% DWANGWA 56.37 62.13 10% CHIMBIYA 40.25 50.00 24% HEWE 23.71 35.04 48% JENDA 45.22 50.00 11% ZOMBA 41.25 51.25 24% MALOMO 38.53 57.00 48% LIWONDE 44.33 49.12 11% LIMBE 48.00 60.00 25% 32.84 49.21 50% MWANSAMBO 47.34 52.99 12% MAYAKA 45.00 56.67 26% NTCHEU 40.05 60.59 51% MCHINJI 37.50 42.53 13% CHINTHECHE 42.48 54.99 29% NENO 38.82 n/a CHIKWAWA 48.34 54.82 13% MPONELA 32.14 41.62 30% EMBANGWENI 50.00 n/a NTHALIRE 22.79 25.87 14% MULOZA 46.25 60.00 30% Source: Ministry of Agriculture

There are 60 markets for which maize price data was available for January and February 2006 to make comparisons. Table 2 shows a comparison of maize prices in the local markets in January and February this year. Out of the 60 markets, only Nkhatabay market registered a drop in maize price (10%) and Ntonda market registered no change. The rest of the markets registered price increases, ranging from 1% at Mwanza market in to 51% at Ntcheu market in Nthcheu District. Normally, one would expect price increases at this time of the year to be confined to one region, particularly the south. However, this year, due to scarcity across the country, we are seeing high prices all over the country and not only confined to one specific region as is usually the case. Some of the markets that registered large increases in maize prices (of 40% and over) include Thondwe (40%), Migowi (44%) and Nchalo (47%) in the southern region; Malomo (48%) and Ntcheu (51%) in the central region; and Chilumba (43%), Hewe (48%) and Rumphi (50%) in the northern region. Reports from cross border trade monitoring indicate that traders are currently banned from buying maize in Tanzania for sale in Malawi. If caught by the authorities, the maize is confiscated. The Tanzanian authorities are only allowing maize imported by the Malawi government to leave Tanzania. Since most of the traders were depending on the Tanzanian maize for sale in the local Malawian markets, the policy will further contribute to the scarcity and higher prices of maize in Malawi. This year, most of the traders depended on maize from Tanzania instead of Mozambique, the traditional source, due to scarcity of maize in Mozambique. In January, only six markets, representing about 10% of all markets monitored, registered maize prices above MK50.00/kg, while in February, this number rose to 34 (or 55%) of all markets.

Appendix 1 shows that the local market maize prices continued to increase in February in the thirteen livelihood zones for which data were available. All the thirteen zones show that local market maize prices reached beyond scenario two of the MVAC analysis in February, implying that more people are in need of food aid than initially anticipated.

Special Focus: Dry spells pose a threat to crop production

Some parts of southern, central, and northern Malawi have experienced prolonged dry spells ranging from two weeks to almost a month, causing extensive damage to crops. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the districts affected include Nsanje, Blantyre, Neno, Balaka, Mangochi and Zomba in the southern region; Salima, Nkhotakota, Lilongwe and Kasungu in the central region; and Rumphi, Mzimba, Karonga and Chitipa in the northern region. In some of these areas, rains have resumed and the crops will recover. However, in other areas, such as the central and northern parts of

3 MALAWI: FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006

Kasungu District, the situation remains serious. The affected areas in Figure 2: Dry spell affected fields in Kasungu include Chamama, Kaluluma and Kasungu Chipala EPAs. The Chamama EPA - Kasungu District EPAs bordering these areas and located in neighboring districts have also been affected. These include part of Lisasadzi in Kasungu District, Emfeni in , Malomo in and Bowe EPA and part of Madisi EPA in . In these areas the drought has been so severe that some of the households will harvest nothing. According to the agricultural officials in Kasungu District, a total of 25,850 hectares belonging to some 32,773 farm families in Chamama, Kasungu-Chipala and Kaluluma EPAs were affected. Out of the 25,850 hectares affected, about 16,098 hectares (62%) have been damaged beyond recovery, even if rains resume. However, based on field observations it is evident that part of Lisasadzi EPA is also affected by this problem, hence the figure may be slightly higher than the current estimate. District officials estimate that the yield loss for the Source: FEWS NET/ Malawi main crops (maize, pulses, groundnuts and tobacco) will range from 40% to 100%. Figure 2 shows one of the affected fields in Chamama EPA in Kasungu District. The maize tassels in this field have dried so even if the rains resume, the crop may not recover. The maize that was at cobbing stage failed to produce grains because of the lack of moisture. Unfortunately, most of the maize was at tasseling or cobbing stage when the dry spell hit the district.

Generally rainfall has been problematic in Figure 3: Comparison between actual and normal rainfall at Kasungu District this year. Figure 3 Kaluluma meteorological station compares this season’s rainfall pattern to 140 Normal the normal or expected rainfall for 2005/06 Kaluluma meteorological station in 120 Kaluluma EPA in Kasungu District and shows that the rainfall this season has been 100 below normal for the majority of the season. The area received above-normal 80 rainfall only during the first dekad of mm 60 January. From the third dekad of January to the second dekad of February, the 40 rainfall has been far below normal which damaged the crops that had previously 20 appeared to be improving with the January rainfall. 0 3 3 0 0 02 02 n01 n n03 a a eb Nov02 Nov Dec01 Dec02 Dec DekadJ Ja J Feb01 F The crop production failure in Kasungu has FEWSNet/Malawi Source: Meteorological Department caused a lot of concern at the district level as it is one of the districts that is able to feed itself in most years and it is one of the Table 3: District contributions to national maize production District Production (MT) % of total District Production (MT) % of total major producers of maize and tobacco. Mzimba 331,395 14% Ntchisi 69,233 3% Out of the 2.5 million MT preliminary Lilongwe 270,792 11% Salima 64,674 3% national maize production estimate for this Kasungu 198,838 8% Phalombe 63,922 3% season, Kasungu accounts for about 8% of Mchinji 165,820 7% Machinga 62,158 3% the total production and ranks third after Mangochi 160,889 7% Nkhota kota 36,745 2% Zomba 133,781 6% Chiradzulu 32,122 1% Mzimba (14%) and Lilongwe (11%) Dowa 110,053 5% Chitipa 30,910 1% districts. Table 3 shows the percent Ntcheu 105,542 4% Nsanje 28,676 1% contribution by each district to total maize Dedza 98,850 4% Rumphi 28,548 1% production in the country. Based upon Thyolo 91,276 4% Karonga 26,503 1% Blantyre 84,139 4% Mwanza 24,745 1% field reports, the situation is not as bad in Chikwawa 74,344 3% 20,317 1% the other districts; however, at the Kasungu Mulanje 69,942 3% Neno 17,202 1% District level, the impact of the dry spells is Balaka 69,841 3% Likoma 63 0% very serious. Out of the preliminary MALAWI 2,471,320 100% estimate of 198,838 MT of maize Source: Ministry of Agriculture production for Kasungu District, about 72%, or 143,400 MT, is smallholder maize production during the main rainy season; the rest is winter and estate production. The four affected EPAs account for 69% of the estimated production in

4 MALAWI: FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006 the district. With a rough estimate of 40% to 100% reduction in yield, the implications on household food security in Kasungu District for this coming season are serious.

In Dowa District, the areas affected include about half of Bowe EPA and about a quarter of Madisi EPA (northern part bordering Kasungu District). These areas experienced a similar rainfall pattern as some parts of Kasungu District. Anecdotal reports also indicate that the situation is the same in Ntchisi District where part of Malomo EPA, which borders Kasungu District, has been affected by the dry spell. The implications of this at household level are serious, but relatively minor at district level as these areas are just a small proportion of each of the districts.

Figure 4: Maize condition in the less affected Figure 5: Maize condition in the worst part of Emfeni EPA affected part of Emfeni EPA

Source: FEWS NET/ Malawi Source: FEWS NET/ Malawi

In Mzimba District, the areas affected are Emfeni, Luwerezi and part of Champhira EPAs. In Emfeni EPA, there are five sections affected with a total of 7,627 farm families representing about 46% of the total farm families in the EPA. In Champhira EPA, three sections are affected with 1,429 farm families, representing about 14% of the total farm family population in the EPA. In Luwerezi EPA, a total of 2,541 farm families are affected out of a total of 5,831 in the EPA, which represents about 44% of the farm families. However, in terms of intensity, the worst hit of these is Emfeni EPA, especially Entwandeni and Khanyika sections that border Kasungu District. In Champhira and Luwerezi EPAs, the crops are expected to recover with the resumption of the rains, although the yield will be significantly reduced. A total of about 582 hectares of maize is estimated to have been affected by the dry spells, with about half belonging to Khanyika Section. Unlike in Kasungu, the maize here had not yet started tasseling, and there is a chance for recovery after the rains resumed in some of the affected areas. In the worst affected areas, the maize has reached almost permanent wilting, and chances of survival are almost none, even if the rains resume. Figures 4 and 5 show a comparison in maize planted at the same time in the less affected northern part and the worst affected southeastern part of Emfeni EPA. Beans and tobacco have also been affected. The dry spells resulted in beans losing their flowers so no harvest is expected while tobacco has experienced false ripening and stunted growth. The tobacco production and quality will decline significantly, adversely affecting income from the crop this year. Figure 6: Comparison between actual and normal rainfall at The erratic start of the rains has compounded problems Bolero meteorological station in , where farmers planted about one 90 Normal month late. Effective planting rains started in mid- 80 2005/06 January which is when most farmers planted, although some farmers were still planting by early February. 70 Normally, maize is planted towards the end of 60

December to early January. Therefore the maize is 50 still young, ranging from vegetative to knee high. 40 Although the rains have picked up, they have not yet mm stabilized. Figure 6 shows this erratic rainfall pattern 30 as recorded at Bolero meteorological station in Bolero 20

EPA. The areas experiencing the most erratic rainfall 10 are Bolero and Mhuju EPAs. The failure of rains in 0 these two EPAs is concerning for Rumphi District, as Nov01 Nov02 Nov03 Dec01 Dec02 Dec03 Jan01 Jan02 Jan03 Feb01 Feb02 -10 Dekad these are two of the three major maize producing areas FEWSNet/Malawi in the district, the third being Katowo EPA. If the Source: Meteorological Department 5 MALAWI: FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006 rains end as they normally do in March, many farmers will not be able to harvest anything as the maize crop will not yet have matured. The rains have to continue into April for the farmers to have any meaningful harvest.

In general, the dry spell problems seem to be localized and the overall national picture of crop production remains promising. However, the affected households will require interventions, for some as soon as possible. Since there is not a national food availability problem anticipated, one way to intervene would be through the markets by empowering the affected households to be able to buy food on the market.

Appendix: Monthly Comparison of 2005/2006 Prices to MVAC Scenarios

Note: Market representation is not adequate in most of the livelihood zones to effectively monitor price movements over the zone as a whole.

Com parison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios Com parison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios

70 60 scenario 1 Scenario 1 60 scenario 2 2005 50 Scenario 2 50 2005 40 40

30 30 Mk/kg

20 Mk/kg 20 10 10 0 april may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Lake Chilwa/Phalom be Plain Livelihood Zone: Middle Shire Livelihood Zone: Phalombe and parts of Machinga and Zomba Machinga, Mwanza and Balaka

Comparison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios Comparison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios

70 scenario 1 60 Scenario 1 60 scenario 2 Scenario 2 2005 50 50 2005 40 40

30 30 Mk/kg

20 Mk/kg 20 10 10 0 april m ay jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb m ar 0 april m ay jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb m ar Shire Highlands Livelihood Zone: Parts of Thyolo/Mulanje Tea Livelihood Zone: Mangochi, Zomba, Chiradzulu and Blantyre ditricts Thyolo and Mulanje Districts Com parison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios Com parison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios

45 50 Scenario 1 scenario 1 40 45 Scenario 2 scenario 2 35 2005 40 2005 35 30 30 25 25

20 Mk/kg 20 Mk/kg 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 april m ay jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb m ar 0 april m ay jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb m ar Chitipa Maize & Millet Livelihood Zone: Western Rumphi Livelihood Zone: Chitipa District Rumphi District

6 MALAWI: FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006

Com parison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios Comparison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios

70 80 scenario 1 Scenario 1 scenario 2 70 60 Scenario 2 2005 50 60 2005

40 50

30 40 Mk/kg Mk/kg 20 30 20 10 10 0 april may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar 0 april m ay jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb m ar Southern Lakeshore Livelihood Zone: Central Karonga Livelihood Zone: Mangochi and Salima Districts

Comparison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios Comparison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios

70 60 Scenario 1 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 60 Scenario 2 50 2005 2005 50 40

40 30

30 Mk/kg Mk/kg 20 20 10 10 0 0 april may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar april may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar Lower Shire Livelihood Zone: Northern Lakeshore Livelihood Zone: Parts Nsanje and of Nkhotakota and Nkhatabay Districts Comparison of 2005 prices to VAC scenarios

60 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 50 2005

40

30 Mk/kg 20

10

0 april m ay jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb m ar

Kasungu-Lilongwe Plain Livelihood Zone: Kasungu, Dowa, Ntchisi, and Mchinji Districts

7