MALAWI NO ALERT Food Security Update WATCH WWWAAARRRNNNIIINNNGGG February 2006 EMERGENCY
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ALERT STATUS: MALAWI NO ALERT Food Security Update WATCH WWWAAARRRNNNIIINNNGGG February 2006 EMERGENCY CONTENTS Summary and Implications Summaries and timeline .............1 Markets and Prices .....................2 Prolonged dry spells in some districts have caused fears of reduced maize production from Special Focus: Dry spells pose a the initial estimate of about 2.4 million metric tons (MT). Even if the rains resume, the threat to crop Production ...........4 crops may not recover in some parts of the country, and affected households will be food Appendix: Prices compared to insecure this season. Apart from maize, the production of other crops such as beans, MVAC Scenarios.........................6 tobacco, cassava and sweet potatoes has also suffered. More details about the impact of the dry spells on crop production will be provided when the second round production figures are presented. The maize supply situation in ADMARC markets remains tight. Many ADMARC markets have no stocks for sale, leaving the local markets as the only option for household maize purchases. Unfortunately, most of the private traders are concentrated in local markets located in or near the urban areas where there is more purchasing power and accessibility than in the rural remote areas. With fewer traders supplying remote rural markets with maize, supplies and prices are more erratic. The hunger season has now reached its peak. In an effort to meet their immediate food needs, some of the households are engaging in piece work in exchange for food or cash, selling livestock at reduced prices, selling firewood, etc. Households targeted by food aid distribution programs continue to benefit, and the assistance has helped to mitigate the negative impacts of this year’s hunger season. Seasonal Timeline Current Hazard Summary • Local market maize prices continue to rise at an unprecedented rate, exacerbating food access problems for an increasing number of people at a time of the year when most households have run out of their own production and are entirely dependent on markets for food. • Prolonged dry spells, especially in parts of the central and northern regions of the country, cause concerns over production prospects in the region. • Scarcity of casual labor opportunities and a drop in livestock prices negatively affects household income and ability to buy food. Food Security Summary The hunger season is now at its peak. The number of people seeking casual employment has grown. Unfortunately, most agricultural activities have been completed and, consequently, there is little demand for casual labor, the main source of income for majority of the poor rural households. People from areas surrounding cities are begging for cash to buy food. FEWS NET is a USAID funded activity. Comments or questions regarding this report can be addressed to Sam Chimwaza, FEWS NET representative for Malawi: FEWS NET/Malawi, Off Chilambula Road, Old Town, P.O. Box 30455, Lilongwe 3, MALAWI (Tel) 265 1 754892; (Fax) 265 1 754892; Email:[email protected] Disclaimer: The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. MALAWI: FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006 The crops in the field are beginning to mature, especially in the southern region and parts of the central region. In a few areas, some of the households, particularly those not targeted with food aid, have begun to harvest green maize for consumption. Although consumption of green maize as a snack is considered normal behavior, more households have been using the green maize as the main source of food as they cannot afford to buy maize at the prevailing high prices. This will have a negative impact on the final harvest and will push poorer households, who already produce insufficient quantities of food, into a vicious circle of chronic and deepening food insecurity. With the termination of food aid distributions at the end of March, it is feared that many households will be forced to prematurely harvest their maize. It may be necessary, if resources permit, to extend food aid distribution in some areas to April/May when the maize is fully matured and dry. Because of the high price of maize, some poor households have been forced to substitute cheaper maize husks for maize grain and prepare an inferior quality of the staple food, nsima. Those who can afford a bit of maize mix the two to increase the amount of flour they obtain from the little money they have. Maize husks are not used for human consumption in normal years and are rarely found on the market. However, in bad years when maize grain prices soar, husks surface in the local markets as a cheaper substitute source of food. The wide availability of maize husks in the local markets this year, especially in the rural markets, is a manifestation of the severity of the food security problem. Households that have livestock are selling Table 1: Commodity Price Comparison their animals to obtain cash for food. Commodity Unit of Price/unit last Price/unit this However, livestock prices in some areas Measurement year (MK) year (MK) have dropped as a result of the high volume Maize Pail 300 - 350 900 - 1,300 of distress sales. Table 1 compares current Green Maize Cob 5 -10 7 – 15 livestock prices with those over same time Cassava Tuber 0.50 -10 5 – 20 last year in Chamama Extension Planning European Potatoes Pail 250 -300 450 – 500 Area (EPA) in Kasungu District. The table Maize husks Pail N/A 350 – 450 Dried Cassava Pail N/A 400 furtrher shows that while the price of food Chips has at least doubled, the price of livestock Beans Pail 1,200 1,900 has drastically fallen, typical of the hunger Cattle Each 15,000 - 25,000 9,000 – 15,000 season. In Kasungu District, dried cassava Goats Each 1,500 – 2,500 800 – 1,200 chips and maize husks are not typically used Sheep Each 1,800 – 3,000 700 – 1,000 for making nsima flour. Yet, due to food Pig Each 2,500 – 4,000 800 – 1,500 Chicken Each 150 – 250 75 – 150 insecurity, some of the households are Source: FEWS NET/ Malawi forced to buy dried cassava chips just to have something to eat. In addition, maize husks are also found in many local markets with prices as high as MK350 to MK450 per pail, which is equivalent to the price of maize grain in a normal year. The situation is similar in many parts of the rural areas in the country. Markets and Prices February is the peak of the hunger season. Figure 1: Local Market Maize Price Ranges, April 2005 to February 2006 Many households will have depleted their food stocks from last year’s harvest, and the February current year’s harvest is not ready for January consumption until sometime in March/April, December especially for the central and northern November regions. This results in an increased demand October for marketed food commodities, especially September maize, pushing up maize prices in local August markets. In a bad year such as this one, the July price increases are dramatic, because of the scarcity and an ineffective supply response. June Due to the scarcity of typical maize supplies May this year (normally available within Malawi April or neighboring Mozambique), traders are 0 1020304050607080 Malawi Kwacha/kg finding it difficult to source adequate FEWSNet/Malawi Source:MoAFS quantities of maize. When they do, the 2 MALAWI: FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006 prices are extremely high. These high prices, coupled with the increase in demand, push up maize prices in the local markets. Maize prices in February ranged from MK20.83/kg at Misuku market in Chitipa District to MK67.75/kg at Monkey Bay market in Mangochi District. Last year at this time, the lowest prices were MK12.5 and MK23 at Bangula market in Nsanje District and Namwera market in Mangochi District, respectively. Figure 1 shows that price ranges stabilized a bit in October to December, which coincides with the period when there was a relatively smooth flow along the food aid pipeline and a stable flow of government maize imports for sale in ADMARC markets. This suggests that the policies and programs have played a significant role in stabilizing the maize prices in the local markets. The price variation has since increased significantly – see January and February 2006 data in Figure 1. Table 2: LOCAL MARKET MAIZE PRICE COMPARISON - JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 2006 Market January February % change Market January February % change Market January February % change NKHATABAY 56.22 50.62 -10% KASUNGU 43.29 49.35 14% THETE 39.25 51.00 30% NTONDA 46.00 46.00 0% MISUKU 18.05 20.83 15% NAMBUMA 36.74 47.75 30% MWANZA 48.68 49.09 1% BALAKA 53.64 62.68 17% NSANJE 43.96 58.54 33% LILONGWE 33.25 33.83 2% MZUZU 38.27 44.84 17% MTAKATAKA 49.67 66.33 34% CHIRADZULU 54.92 56.03 2% BEMBEKE 41.28 48.75 18% BVUMBWE 42.00 56.25 34% NKHOTAKOTA 48.67 49.67 2% DOWA 30.92 37.03 20% LUNZU 45.87 62.65 37% NANJIRI 34.82 35.91 3% TSANGANO T-OFF 40.77 49.01 20% CHITIPA 31.21 42.79 37% NSUNDWE 42.70 45.00 5% MZIMBA 33.91 40.98 21% MONKEY BAY 49.07 67.75 38% BANGULA 50.59 53.50 6% LIZULU 41.26 50.00 21% NTCHISI 38.76 53.65 38% LUCHENZA 42.50 45.00 6% MANGOCHI 49.10 60.09 22% JALI 40.19 55.80 39% SALIMA 47.67 50.53 6% PHALOMBE 55.08 67.51 23% THONDWE 41.73 58.57 40% NAMWERA 43.38 46.32 7% MITUNDU 41.53 51.18 23% CHILUMBA 26.10 37.36 43% NKHOMA 32.53 35.00 8% KARONGA 44.27 54.88 24% MIGOWI 44.11 63.55 44% SANTHE 30.52 33.37 9% NGABU 48.33 60.00 24% NCHALO 42.22 62.00 47% DWANGWA 56.37 62.13 10% CHIMBIYA 40.25 50.00 24% HEWE 23.71 35.04 48% JENDA 45.22 50.00 11% ZOMBA 41.25 51.25 24% MALOMO 38.53 57.00 48% LIWONDE 44.33 49.12 11% LIMBE 48.00 60.00 25% RUMPHI 32.84 49.21 50% MWANSAMBO 47.34 52.99 12% MAYAKA 45.00 56.67 26% NTCHEU 40.05 60.59 51% MCHINJI 37.50 42.53 13% CHINTHECHE 42.48 54.99 29% NENO 38.82 n/a CHIKWAWA 48.34 54.82 13% MPONELA 32.14 41.62 30% EMBANGWENI 50.00 n/a NTHALIRE 22.79 25.87 14% MULOZA 46.25 60.00 30% Source: Ministry of Agriculture There are 60 markets for which maize price data was available for January and February 2006 to make comparisons.