Intercity Migration in China: a Recurrent-Event Duration Analysis of Repeat Migration
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Manuscript Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society doi:10.1093/cjres/rsw025 Intercity migration in China: a recurrent-event duration analysis of repeat migration Ming Tiana, Zheng Tianb and Brian Cushingc Downloaded from aSchool of Social Development and Public Policy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China, [email protected] bInternational School of Economics and Management, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China, [email protected] cDepartment of Economics, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506, USA, brian. http://cjres.oxfordjournals.org/ [email protected] Received on September 22, 2015; accepted on April 6, 2016 This paper focuses on repeat migration of migrant workers in China. We explore repeat migration from the perspective of the duration of each migration stage in one’s migration history. The main methodology is a recurrent-event Cox proportional hazard (PH) duration at Beijing Normal University Library on October 20, 2016 model that examines the effects of both time-independent and time-dependent variables on the potential for repeat migration. We also assess the PH assumption for time-independent variables. We find that the age of first migration, the accompaniment of family members and the types and location of destination cities have significant effects on the potential of migrants’ subsequent movements to other cities. Keywords: repeat migration, Chinese rural migrants, recurrent-event duration model JEL Classifications: R23, C41, O15 Introduction migration policies regarding the magnitude and Massive rural–urban migration in China is an direction of migration flows. This article focuses important feature of Chinese labour markets. on repeat migration of Chinese migrant work- The migration process is complex, involving ini- ers from the perspective of the duration of each tial movement outside a migrant’s place of ori- stage in one’s migration history. gin and subsequent movements across different The frequent movement of Chinese rural destination cities, referred to as “repeat migra- migrants across cities has increasingly drawn tion”. Repeat migration in China gives rise to researchers’ attention. Meng (2012) estimates important research questions, such as how many that rural migrants stay in destination cities times rural migrants will change their place of for only 7 years on average. Most studies on work and residence before they settle down, the temporary nature of rural–urban migra- how long they stay in a destination city and tion emphasise discrimination against rural what factors determine their decisions to move migrants in terms of wages, job opportunities, again. Answering these questions would inform public services and so on, due to lack of the © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: [email protected] Tian, Tian and Cushing urban hukou, the residency registration sys- residence (including origins) or prolonging the tem in China (Meng and Zhang, 2001; Lu and stay in one destination region. Song, 2006; Wang et al., 2015; Zhang and Xie, Empirical studies evaluate the effects on 2013). However, few papers address the dura- repeat migration of various factors, including tion issue of repeat migration in China. Using personal characteristics, household character- a unique data set from a survey conducted by istics and economic conditions of sending and our research team, we use a recurrent-event receiving regions. Eldridge (1965) compared Cox proportional hazard (PH) duration model the age group composition of primary, onward Downloaded from to examine the factors affecting the length of and return migration in the USA and found migrants’ stay in their destination cities. We find that the age for peak rates of onward and return that, among other things, age of first migration, migration was greater than that of primary the accompaniment of family members in one’s migration. DaVanzo (1983) found that within migration period and the types and location of the 1968–1975 period in the USA, younger, less http://cjres.oxfordjournals.org/ destination cities have significant effects on the educated and unemployed migrants were more potential of migrants’ subsequent movements likely to return as a “corrective” move. She also to other cities. found that well-educated people were more likely to make onward moves. Newbold (2005) and Newbold and Cicchino (2007) investigated Literature review repeat migration in Canada at different spatial Since the works of Ravenstein (1884), human scales and with different time intervals, reveal- migration has usually been seen not as a once- ing that onward migrants tended to be younger, at Beijing Normal University Library on October 20, 2016 for-all process but as a sequence of movements, better educated and more skilful than return categorised into three types: primary (that migrants. is, first migration), onward (that is, moving to One aspect in empirical studies of repeat other destinations after the first migration) and migration concerns the duration of migrants return migrations (that is, returns to a previous staying at destination regions. Although the place of residence) (Eldridge, 1965; Newbold number of studies on this is small, it has gained and Cicchino, 2007). Return and onward more attention in recent years. Most studies migrations, together, are called repeat migra- on migration duration focus on return migra- tion (DaVanzo, 1983). Most theories on repeat tion or circular migration in the international migration follow the framework of the life cycle context, such as immigrants from Mexico to human capital investment model (Dierx, 1988; the USA (Detang-Dessendre and Molho, 2000; Kennan and Walker, 2011; Yezer and Thurston, Lindstrom, 1996; Massey and Espinosa, 1997; 1976; ). Rational migrants optimise utility at Reyes, 2001; Vergalli, 2011), and migrant work- each migration stage, under income constraints ers between European countries (Constant and and both monetary and psychological mov- Zimmermann, 2011, 2012; Djajić and Milbourne, ing costs (Constant et al., 2013). Imperfect 1988; Dustmann and Kirchkamp, 2002; Gundel information and location-specific capital are and Peters, 2008). The optimal migration dura- also considered in explaining repeat migra- tion is found to be determined by migrants’ tion (Allen, 1979; DaVanzo, 1981). Imperfect consumption preference in their home coun- information causes unsatisfactory experiences tries (Djajić and Milbourne, 1988), wage dif- of initial migration, triggering either return or ferentials between host and home countries onward moves. Location-specific capital, pri- (Dustmann, 2003) and comparison of the pur- marily referred to as social network in a place, chasing power of savings at home and abroad builds ties to the location of residence, result- (Stark et al., 1997). Also, gender, marital status, ing in either returning to the place of previous social network, economic opportunities at home Page 2 of 19 Intercity migration in China countries, plus immigrants’ skills and entrepre- try to fulfil. We contribute to the literature in neurship can influence the length of stay in host two ways. First, we use a recurrent-event dura- countries and the likelihood of circular migra- tion model for repeat migration. Second, we tion back and forth between host and home use a new data source from a survey covering countries (Detang-Dessendre and Molho, 2000; nine cities in East China. The survey records Dustmann and Kirchkamp, 2002; Gundel and the length of stay in each destination city in Peters, 2008). Along with descriptive analysis one’s migration history as well as other related and logistic models, duration models (or sur- information, making it possible to estimate the Downloaded from vival analysis) are popular in modelling duration recurrent-event duration model. of migration. Many studies use the PH model, including both parametric and semi-parametric Data source and sample description methods, to examine determinants of duration Data source of stays in destination regions before return- http://cjres.oxfordjournals.org/ ing home (Gundel and Peters, 2008; Lindstrom, The data source is a survey conducted by our 1996; Massey and Espinosa, 1997). To our knowl- research team. Survey questions cover a wide edge, Andrews et al. (2011) is the only case that range of issues related to migrant workers’ uses a recurrent-event duration model to exam- working and living conditions in destination ine a complete migration process consisting of cities. Importantly, one survey section consists primary, onward and return migration, which is of questions regarding one’s migration history, in line with our article. including the names of all destination cities, the Research papers on migration duration of length of stay in each city, whether one migrated at Beijing Normal University Library on October 20, 2016 Chinese rural migrants are rare. The tempo- to a city alone or with family members and a rary nature of Chinese rural–urban migration measure of the relative distance from a place of has been well documented in many studies, in destination to one’s place of origin. which rural migrants are often referred to as Survey data were collected in nine cities in “floating population” (Goodkind and West, East and Middle China from 2010 to 2012. The 2002; Zhu, 2007). Studies on Chinese migrant nine cities include Beijing, Dongguan, Wenzhou, workers