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Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia

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Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia June 1 2009 THE WORLD BANK i ACRONYMS ECA: Europe and Central Asia CI: Conservation International GCM: General circulation model GHG: Greenhouse gas GIS: Geographic information systems IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IWRM: Integrated water resource management KRU: Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine Ktoe: Kiloton oil equivalent RCM: Regional climate model SWIFT: Structured What If Technique WMO: World Meteorological Organization WWF: World Wildlife Fund This report is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS ..........................................................................................................................................ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................iii FIGURES ..............................................................................................................................................v TABLES................................................................................................................................................v BOXES................................................................................................................................................vi MAPS ................................................................................................................................................vi ECA COUNTRIES AND SUB‐REGIONS.......................................................................................................vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .........................................................................................................................viii SYNOPSIS............................................................................................................................................ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................x Climate change―a major threat to ECA .....................................................................................xi Vulnerability over the next ten to twenty years will be dominated by socio‐economic factors and legacy issues.......................................................................................................................xiii Even countries and sectors that could stand to benefit from climate change are poorly positioned to do so ....................................................................................................................xv The next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA countries to make their development much more resilient to climate change while reaping numerous co‐benefits .. xvi CHAPTER 1. A FRAMEWORK FOR DEVELOPING ADAPTATION PLANS ............................................................. 1 Vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity ................................ 2 A vulnerability index for ECA .................................................................................................. 5 An alternative measure .......................................................................................................... 8 From vulnerability to action: facing the challenge of adaptation............................................... 9 Approaches to adaptation planning ..................................................................................... 10 Mainstreaming adaptation into development ..................................................................... 13 Effective adaptation requires tackling several challenges........................................................ 14 Making decisions under uncertainty .................................................................................... 14 Getting the right data—and knowing how to use it............................................................. 17 CHAPTER 2. HOW ECA’S CLIMATE HAS CHANGED AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER................................. 19 ECA’s climate is already changing ............................................................................................. 19 More change is certain—the question is where and how........................................................ 20 Climate projections: how is ECA likely to be affected?............................................................. 22 Warmer everywhere: fewer frost days, more heat waves................................................... 22 Wetter north and east, drier south ...................................................................................... 24 When it rains, it pours—everywhere ................................................................................... 25 CHAPTER 3. HUMAN HEALTH: THE MOST BASIC VULNERABILITY ............................................................... 28 Warmer and more extreme weather brings new threats and exacerbates others.................. 28 Floods.................................................................................................................................... 28 Heat waves ...........................................................................................................................31 Droughts ............................................................................................................................... 32 Changing averages: malaria, allergies and algal blooms ...................................................... 33 The climate change–health outcome matrix........................................................................ 33 Vulnerability from climate‐driven migration: the health perspective.................................. 35 Assessing vulnerability and prioritizing protections ................................................................. 37 iii CHAPTER 4. CLIMATE CHANGE WILL MAKE WATER AND LAND MANAGEMENT MORE COMPLEX .................... 40 More difficult water resource management—too much or too little of a good thing............. 40 What climate change means for water resource management........................................... 40 A varying regional picture but more flooding (almost) everywhere .................................... 41 Climate change will compound Central Asia’s already serious water shortages ................. 42 More stress on already stressed coastal areas ......................................................................... 44 Baltic Sea............................................................................................................................... 45 Caspian Sea........................................................................................................................... 46 Mediterranean Sea (East Adriatic and Mediterranean coast of Turkey).............................. 46 Black Sea ............................................................................................................................... 47 Declining arctic ice, tundra and permafrost ............................................................................. 48 Threats to biodiversity are significant....................................................................................... 48 Two key lines of intervention: conservation and minimizing non climate change‐related stresses ................................................................................................................................. 49 Adaptations by biome........................................................................................................... 50 CHAPTER 5. THE UNBUILT ENVIRONMENT: AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY ................................................... 53 Climate impacts will exacerbate ECA’s persistent problem of rural poverty ........................... 54 Models predict that there will be winners and losers in ECA................................................... 55 Insights from observed climate changes and impacts.......................................................... 56 Impacts: the agronomic view ............................................................................................... 56 Impacts: the economic models............................................................................................. 61 The state and sensitivities of ECA’s agriculture today .............................................................. 63 Climate change is complicated by environmental management weaknesses..................... 63 Farm type and adaptive capacity.......................................................................................... 66 Potential climate change winners face their own challenges................................................... 67 Adaptation in the productive environment.............................................................................. 68 CHAPTER 6. THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT: CITIES, TRANSPORT,
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