Science Plan for COAT: Climate-Ecological Observatory for Arctic Tundra 78º N 70º N FRAM – High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment Fram Centre Report Series No. 1 Science Plan for COAT: Climate-Ecological Observatory for Arctic Tundra Editors: Rolf A. Ims, Jane U. Jepsen, Audun Stien & Nigel G. Yoccoz Science plan for COAT: Climate-ecological Observatory for Arctic Tundra Editors: Rolf A. Ims, Jane U. Jepsen, Audun Stien & Nigel G. Yoccoz Publisher: Fram Centre by the University of Tromsø Year of publication: 2013 Number of pages: 177 Cover photo: Geir Vie Cover layout: Ingrid Jensvoll and Jane U. Jepsen Typesetting: Jane U. Jepsen Printing: Troms Produkt, Tromsø, Norway ISBN: 978-82-999253-0-3 The publication should be cited as follows: Ims, R.A., Jepsen, J.U., Stien, A. & Yoccoz, N.G. 2013. Science plan for COAT: Climate-ecological Observatory for Arctic Tundra. Fram Centre Report Series 1, Fram Centre, Norway, 177 pages. Notes: The Fram Centre is the short name for FRAM– High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment. The Fram Centre is based in Tromsø and consists of 21 institutions involved in interdisciplinary research in the field of natural science, technology and social sciences. The following Fram Centre institutions are involved in COAT: University of Tromsø, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Norwegian Polar Institute, University Centre in Svalbard and Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The science plan is coordinated by the University of Tromsø, and financienced with contributions from: The Ministry of Education and Research The University of Tromsø Norwegian Polar Institute Norwegian Institute for Nature Research The Fram Centre TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 1. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE 9 1.1. Arctic tundra ecosystem 9 1.2. Long-term research and monitoring 23 2. COAT MODULES 29 2.1. Monitoring targets and conceptual climate impact path models 29 2.2 Tundra-forest ecotone module (Varanger) 31 2.3 Tall shrub (Varanger) 41 2.4 Small rodent module (Varanger) 51 2.5 Ungulate module (Varanger and Svalbard) 65 2.6 Ptarmigan module (Varanger and Svalbard) 77 2.7 Goose module (Svalbard) 89 2.8 Arctic fox module (Varanger and Svalbard) 97 2.9. Monitoring design and methods 111 2.10. Data management and analysis 137 3. ORGANIZATION 141 4. INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION 143 4.1. Pan-arctic perspectives 143 4.2. Links to other established ecosystem-based observatories 144 4.3. COAT Russia 144 5. SOCIETY INVOLVEMENTS, EDUCATION AND OUTREACH 147 5.1. Management issues and stakeholder fora 147 5.2. Education 148 5.3. Outreach 151 Literature cited 153 FOREWORD In connection with the opening of Fram – High ranger Peninsula were informed about the project North Centre for Climate and the Environment in in a meeting in the Ministry of Environment in fall 2010, the centre was tasked to initiate a plan- February 2011. ning project for a Climate ecological Observatory A draft of the science plan for COAT was submit- for Arctic Tundra (COAT). The planning project ted for review by an expert panel administrated by was funded by the Ministry of Science and the the Division for Energy, Resources and the Envi- University of Tromsø and Professor Rolf A. Ims ronment of The Research Council of Norway in was appointed as the leader. A task force was es- June 2012. Their consensus review report was tablished in January 2011 with members from ready in November 2012. The review provided full Department of Arctic and Marine Biology at the support for the COAT science plan and conclud- University of Tromsø, (Kari Anne Bråthen, John- ed that “the original approach will make a world- André Henden, Dorothee Ehrich, Vera H. Haus- class contribution”, “making this well-conceived ner, Rolf A. Ims, Ingrid Jensvoll, Siw Killengreen, and major initiative operational will simply rely on Virve Ravolainen, Nigel G. Yoccoz), Department resources as all the necessary components, particu- of Arctic Ecology of the Norwegian Institute of lary concepts and experience, are present” and that Nature Research (Martin Biuw, Per Fauchald, it was their opinion “that the project should be Jane U. Jepsen, Audun Stien, Ingunn Tombre, funded appropriately and encouraged into the long Torkild Tveraa), Norwegian Polar Institute (Eva -term […] with all due haste”. The 10-page review Fuglei, Jack Kohler, Åshild Ø. Pedersen), Universi- report provided also a set of contructive sugges- ty Centre of Svalbard (Steve Coulson, Pernille B. tions about additional scientific issues to be in- Eidesen, Eike Müller). Ole Einar Tveito cluded in the plan as to make COAT even more (Norwegian Meteorological Institute), Elisabeth comprehensive and, moreover, good advices on Cooper (AMB, UoT) and Jesper Madsen organizational issues that could make COAT (University of Aarhus) later joined the task force. more robust. The present version of the science The scientific scope and overall approach for plan, which is published as the first issue of the COAT was agreed on during the course of a series Fram Centre’s report series, represents a revision of internal meetings during the spring of 2011. of the draft plan submitted for review. It should, During these meetings the main responsibility for however, not be considered as a final product. writing the module chapters was allocated to the According to COAT’s paradigm of adaptive long- different specialist members of the task force. It term science, its plan should also be an “adaptive was also agreed that all the main modules of the entity” frequently subjected to revisions and im- COAT science plan should be thoroughly pre- provements. sented and discussed in workshops in which ex- ternal referees were invited. Eight workshops were held during May – December 2011. The fol- Tromsø June 25th, 2013 lowing colleagues kindly acted as referees during these workshops: Anders Angerbjörn, Tom Ed- wards, Heikki Henttonen, Greg Henry, Annika Hofgaard, Jesper Madsen, Jim Nichols, Carl Mitch- ell, Erling Solberg and Rene van der Wal. The overall approach of COAT was also presented and On behalf of the COAT team discussed at the AMINOR workshops in Tromsø and at the Terrestrial Monitoring Expert Group (TMEG) of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Moni- toring Program (CBMP) in Denmark in Novem- ber 2011 Finally, two meetings have been held with members of reindeer herding districts on Varanger Peninsula in May and November 2011 and the mayors of the municipalities at the Va- Science plan for COAT 5 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The arctic tundra comprises of the terrestrial eco- ment of “sister observatories” in arctic Russia. systems north of the continuous boreal forest The goal of COAT is to become the world’s most and is one of the earth’s largest terrestrial bi- comprehensive and management relevant long- omes. Owing to its remoteness, the arctic tundra term research and monitoring enterprise for arc- still harbors vast stretches of pristine wilderness tic terrestrial ecosystems. with intact ecosystem functions and endemic COAT aims to be a fully ecosystem-based system biodiversity of great fundamental and societal for long-term adaptive monitoring based on a significance. Yet the arctic tundra is predicted to food web approach. A food web approach in become more challenged by climate change than context of adaptive monitoring confers several any other terrestrial biome. Global circulation advantages. First, the food web concept is strong- models (GCMs) project an average temperature ly embedded in fundamental ecological theory. increase in the Arctic as large as 10 ºC by the This allows the formulation of conceptual climate turn of the century. Given such an extensive and impact prediction models for tractable modules rapid change, the impacts on the ecosystems will (compartments) of the food web which will act as be large and have pervasive implications locally a guide for defining adequate monitoring targets and globally. The rapid shift to new climate re- and state variables. Second, the comprehensive gimes is likely to give rise to new ecosystems with food web approach taken by COAT, with 7 mod- unknown properties, making science unable to ules and derived prediction models, accommo- accurately predict the associated outcomes and date the anticipated climate change impact on long-term consequences. The large internal un- tundra ecosystems. Anticipated impacts include certainties of the GCMs added to the limitations (1) “Arctic greening” due to encroachment of of ecological projection models, will hinder soci- forest and tall shrubs and its resultant feedback ety from responding to the changes by means of to the ecosystem and climate system, (2) disrupt- appropriate adaptive and mitigating actions. It ed dynamics and changed abundance levels of therefore becomes crucial to establish scientifi- arctic key-stone herbivores and the resultant cally robust observation systems to enable real trophic cascades likely to compromise main eco- time detection, documentation and understand- system functions and endemic arctic diversity, ing of climate impacts on arctic tundra ecosys- and (3) emergence of pest species outbreaks, zo- tems. In the light of this background it is para- onoses and invasive southern species and assess- doxical that our observing capacity of the arctic ment of the consequent impacts. Third, the tundra is very low. In context of the vastness of adopted food web approach of COAT should be the circumpolar biome and its large internal vari- sufficiently comprehensive to also accommodate ability there are very few sites devoted to long- early detection of unforeseen events (surprises) term research and monitoring and in particular that follow the development of new climates and which adopt an adequate ecosystem-based ap- ecosystems. COAT has a special focus on targets proach that accommodate the range of impacts that provide important provisioning and cultural and consequences that can be anticipated. ecosystem services locally (e.g. game), as well as In response to these concerns, the Fram Centre supporting services (e.g.