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Engine Powering up for Major Brands, Initiate “Accumulate” Company Report: Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238 HK) 中文版 Toliver Ma 马守彰 公司报告：广州汽车集团 (02238 HK) Chinese version +852 25095317 [email protected] 国泰君安研究 16 February 2017 Engine Powering up for Major Brands, Initiate “Accumulate” 主要品牌发力,首次覆盖并给予“收集”的投资评级 GTJA Research Research GTJA th Being the 6 largest automaker in China, GAC displayed the fastest rate Rating: Accumulate of growth among the top 6 automakers in China, with 2016 growth rate Initial at 26.9%. In 2016, its own Trumpchi brand and joint venture with Fiat Chrysler fuelled growth for the Company; we expect this trend to continue in 2017 and 评级： 收集 (首次研究) 2018 albeit in a less significant manner. We expect sales of passenger vehicles to increase 26.3%, 22.5% and 7.3% yoy in 2016 to 2018, 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$13.96 respectively. Basic EPS forecasted to increase 48.8%, 11.9% and 9.3% yoy in 2016 to Share price 股价： HK$12.900 2018, respectively. Significant improvement expected in 2016 due to the upturn from GAMC’s Trumpchi and GAC FCA’s Jeep. Both brands are to contribute a full year of profit in 2016 and sustain profit-making in 2017 to Stock performance 股价表现 2018. However, we forecast slower growth in 2017 and 2018 as we see 110.0 growth from GAMC and FCA normalized, and with Honda’s and Toyota’s % of return expansion plans to remain conservative. 90.0 70.0 Initiate TP at HK$13.96 with an “Accumulate”investment rating, which 50.0 represents 11.4x/10.4x 2017/2018 PER and 1.34x/1.29x 2017/2018 PBR. 30.0 We think that GAC’s valuation is still attractive, despite their stock price 10.0 rallying 88.0% since Jan. 2016, as 1) GAC has exhibited strong earnings potential and 2) GAC has been trading under its peers’ weighted average (10.0) PER since Sep. 2016, therefore, we see the current share price as an (30.0) accumulation opportunity. (50.0) Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 (02238 HK) HK) (02238 作为中国 6 大汽车制造商，广州汽车的 2016 年汽车销售增长达 26.9％，为 6 大车企最快。 HSI Guangzhou Auto-H 在 2016 年，自主品牌传祺，以及合资公司菲亚特-克莱斯勒为公司带来增长，我们预计这 种趋势将在 2017 年和 2018 年持续，尽管较为温和。我们预计 2016-2018 年乘用车销量 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 广州汽车 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 将分别同比增长 26.3％，22.5％和 7.3％。 Abs. % 23.8 39.9 76.5 绝对变动 % 基本每股收益在 年分别增长 ％， ％和 ％。由于广汽集团乘用车的 2016- 2018 48.8 11.9 9.3 Rel. % to HS index 18.2 32.2 51.0 传祺和广汽菲亚特的 Jeep 在 2016 年有显著改善，这两个品牌在 2016 年全年贡献利润， 相对恒指变动 % Avg. share price(HK$) 并在 年至 年维持。然而，我们预计 年和 年的增长将会放缓，因为 11.4 10.2 9.5 2017 2018 2017 2018 平均股价（港元） 我们预期广汽集团乘用车和广汽菲亚特的增长将正常化，及本田和丰田保守的扩张计划。 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 首予广州汽车“收集”的评级并给予 13.96 港元的目标价，相当于 11.4 倍/10.4 倍的 Auto Guangzhou Group 2017/2018 财年市盈率以及 1.34 倍/1.29 倍的 2017/2018 财年市净率。尽管自 2016 年 1 月以来股价已上涨 88.0％，我们认为广州汽车估值仍具吸引力，因 1）广州汽车表现出 强劲的盈利潜力，及 2）广州汽车自 2016 年 9 月以来一直低于同业的市场加权平均市盈率， 因此，我们认为目前股价有“收集”的机会。 Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2014A 22,383 3,194 0.496 20.4 20.4 5.509 1.8 0.160 1.6 9.2 2015A 29,418 4,212 0.654 31.9 16.4 6.006 1.8 0.200 1.9 11.4 2016F 48,839 6,265 0.974 48.8 11.8 6.687 1.7 0.292 2.5 15.3 2017F 63,580 7,414 1.089 11.9 10.5 9.289 1.2 0.327 2.8 14.0 2018F 67,767 8,547 1.191 9.3 9.6 9.643 1.2 0.357 3.1 12.9 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 6,454.2 Major shareholder 大股东 GAIG 60.66% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 83,259.4 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 39.34 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 19,079.7 FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 净负债/股东资金 (%) Net Cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 13.240 / 6.630 FY17 Est. NAV (HK$) FY17 每股估值 (港元) 14.69 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Company Report Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 27 d 目 录 行业概述 3 乘用车 ............................................................................................................................... 3 16 February 2017 商用车 ............................................................................................................................... 5 公司分析 6 股东结构 ............................................................................................................................ 6 发展历史 - 三大发展阶段 ................................................................................................. 6 业务组成 ............................................................................................................................ 7 收入和利润贡献 ................................................................................................................. 8 销售及市场份额 ................................................................................................................. 9 广汽本田 .......................................................................................................................... 10 广汽丰田 .......................................................................................................................... 12 广汽三菱 .......................................................................................................................... 14 (02238 HK) (02238 广汽菲克 .......................................................................................................................... 15 广州汽车 自主品牌 – 传祺 ............................................................................................................. 16 2016-2018 年销售及财务预测 19 收入及毛利率 ................................................................................................................... 19 Guangzhou Auto Auto Guangzhou Group 投资收入 – 应占合营公司利润 ........................................................................................ 20 融资活动 .......................................................................................................................... 23 投资逻辑、估值及风险 23 Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 27 d 行业概述 乘用车 2016 年对于汽车行业是个好年头。根据中国汽车工业协会的数据，中国汽车销售在 2016 年呈现双位数增长，为 2013 年以来 最高。中国汽车销量在 2016 年同比上升了 13.7%，其中乘用车的销量增长自 2015 年 4 季度以来持续扩大，因为购置税减半政 16 February 2017 策的推出对小排量汽车有极大利好。加上 2015 年的低基数，乘用车销量同比上升了 15.1%。在各种类型的乘用车中，轿车、 MPV 和 SUV 的销量分别同比上升了 3.1%、18.9%和 46.1%，但交叉型车的销量则同比下降了 21.2%。由于近年来对 SUV 的 需求强健，SUV 的销量增长远快于其它类型的乘用车。这导致 SUV 的市场份额显著增加，自 2015 年 12 月以来扩大了 7.4 个 百分点，为乘用车市场中增长最快的子市场。 图-1: 中国汽车销量及销量增长 图-2: 中国乘用车销量及销量增长 Vehicle sales yoy PV sales yoy Units (Units) 30,000,000 45.5% 50% 30,000,000 52.9% 60% 45% 25,000,000 40% 25,000,000 50% 32.5% 35% 20,000,000 20,000,000 33.3% 40% 24.8% 30% 22.3% 29.6% 15,000,000 25% 15,000,000 22.3% 30% 13.9% 13.7% 20% 10,000,000 15.7% 15% 10,000,000 15.1% 20% 6.6% 4.2% 6.8% 9.9% 5,000,000 4.6% 10% 6.9% 2.7% 7.1% 5.4% 7.2% 5% 5,000,000 10% - 0% - 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 资料来源：中国汽车工业协会、国泰君安国际。 资料来源：中国汽车工业协会、国泰君安国际。 图-3: 各类乘用车的销量增长 图-4: 各类乘用车的市场份额 Sedan MPV SUV Crossover Sedan MPV SUV Crossover (02238 HK) (02238 100% 3.0% 110.0% 9.1% 6.8% 5.2% 15.6% 14.6% 16.7% 20.7% 90.0% 广州汽车 80% 11.2% 12.9% 29.4% 36.8% 3.4% 3.2% 7.3% 70.0% 9.7% 60% 10.0% 50.0% 10.3% 30.0% 40% 69.8% 69.4% 67.0% 62.8% 10.0% 55.4% 50.0% 20% -10.0% Auto Guangzhou Group 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0% -30.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -50.0% 资料来源：中国汽车工业协会、国泰君安国际。 资料来源：中国汽车工业协会、国泰君安国际。 自主品牌的市场份额反弹。根据中国汽车工业协会的数据，自主品牌乘用车的销量在 2016 年同比提高了 20.8%，快于其它品 牌及行业平均。因此，自主品牌的市场份额自 2015 年 12 月以来增加了 1.6 个百分点至 42.8%。自主品牌的乘用车销量在近年 来迅速增加，原因为 1）迅速决定斥巨资于 SUV，2）因其产品大部分为排量在 1.6 升以下的汽车而成为购置税减半政策的主要 受益者，及 3）与外资 OEM 相比性价比更高。同时，日系、德系及美系品牌在 2016 年的增长与行业大体一致，呈现出 13.8% 至 15.8%的增长，因此这些品牌的市场份额保持稳定。2016 年表现不佳的有韩系及法系品牌，分别同比增长了 7.2%及下降了 14.7%。两个品牌均受到对产品投资不足的影响，包括车型的国产率较低以及未能满足客户喜好。他们面临的激烈竞争主要来 自中高端市场的日系及德系品牌，以及低端市场的自主品牌。 Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 27 d 图-5: 各国汽车制造商的市场份额 图-6: 各国汽车制造商的增长 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 42.8% 41.2% 45% 40.4% 40.0% 40% 38.3% 35% 30.0% 30% 20.8% 25% 20.0% 15.8% 15.2% 16 February 2017 20.0% 19.1% 18.9% 13.8% 18.8% 16.1% 15.9% 15.8% 20% 15.7% 12.8% 12.6% 7.2% 12.3% 15% 12.2% 10.0% 9.0% 8.9% 8.0% 10% 7.3% 3.7% 3.5% 3.1% 5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Self Japanese German American Korean French 0% owned -10.0% Self owned Others French Korean -14.7% German -20.0% American Japanese 资料来源：中国汽车工业协会、国泰君安国际。 资料来源：中国汽车工业协会、国泰君安国际。 购置税减半政策的推出结构性地改变了消费者的购买模式。汽车市场自 2009 年以来一直以政策为主导，并于 2016 年 10 月 1 日重启购置税优惠，刺激了小排量车辆，尤其是 SUV 的需求。2016 年第 2 季度和第 3 季度的增长较快，因为去年同期基数相 对较低。1.6 公升及以下排量的乘用车销售在 2016 年大幅增长，同比增长了 21.7%。相比之下，排量超过 2.0 公升的乘用车有 较大的下跌，因该类别不适用减税政策。按不同类型的车辆分析，所有 1.6 公升以下排量汽车的销售份额普遍都提高。特别是 1.6 公升以下的 SUV 在 2016 年销售额上升了 73.7%，2016 年的销售比例为 55.0%，同比增长约 10.2 个百分点；而轿车和 MPV 的销售比例也有适度增长。1.6 公升以上的 SUV 销售同比增长 19.3%；但大排量的轿车和 MPV 的销售则录得负增长。 虽然长期以来甚至是在没有减税政策的情况下 1.6 公升以下排量的汽车一直是消费者的主流选择，但该政策的推出有效地使趋 势向小排量倾斜。2016 年 12 月中旬，财政部宣布对 1.6 公升以下排量乘用车的新一轮减税政策。与 2009 年及 2010 年相似， 新规表明在 2017 年 1.6 公升以下排量乘用车的购置税将为 7.5%，较当前的优惠幅度下调了 2.5 个百分点。另外还宣布从 2018 年 1 月 1 日起将不会有税收优惠且购置税将恢复至 10%。鉴于 2017 年获得的减税较少，我们预计情形将与 2009 年及 2010 年 购置税减免力度减小时相若。销售将在 2017 下半年放缓，我们预计 2017 全年将有 5%至 7.5%的单位数增长。 (02238 HK) (02238 图-7: 中国汽车总销量增长 图-8: 中国乘用车总销量增长 2015 2016 2015 2016 广州汽车 30% 26.6% 35% 24.4% 29.5% 23.2% 25% 30% 26.5% 26.6% 19.3% 25% 21.0% 20% 17.1% 14.8% 18.0% 17.9% 20% 15% 8.9% 9.9% 9.7% 15% 11.4% 7.8% 9.4% 9.9% 9.4% 10% 6.4% 10% 6.6% Auto Guangzhou Group 5% 5% -0.8% -1.4% 0% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -5% -5% -10% -10% 资料来源：中国汽车工业协会、国泰君安国际。 资料来源：中国汽车工业协会、国泰君安国际。 Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 27 d 表-1: 按排量划分的各汽车类型的增长 2014 2015 2016 增长 增长 增长 类型 排量≤1.6 升 排量>1.6 升 差异 排量≤1.6 升 排量>1.6 升 差异 排量≤1.6 升 排量>1.6 升 差异 (百分点) (百分点) (百分点) 轿车 4.8% -0.5% 5.35 -2.5% -13.5% 10.99 10.7% -17.0% 27.67
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