THE NEW PASSENGER CAR FLEET IN CHINA, 2010 Technology Assessment and International Comparisons 9 9 8.9 8.5 8.6 7.6 7.4 6.7 6.6 6.4 5.8 5.0 Mini Small Lower Medium Medium Large SUV Fuel consumption L/100km ( China; EU) Authors Hui He, policy analyst Jun Tu; researcher Acknowledgement The authors would like to thank the ClimateWorks Foundation for sponsoring this study. We are especially grateful to the following experts in China, Europe, and the United States who generously contributed their time in reviewing versions of this report: – Tang Dagang and Ding Yan of the Vehicle Emission Control Center (VECC) – Wu Ye and Huo Hong of Tsinghua University – Jin Yuefu, Wang Zhao, and Bao Xiang of the China Automotive Technology And Research Center (CATARC) – An Feng and Ma Dong of the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation (iCET) – Francois Cuenot of the International Energy Agency (IEA) – John Decicco of the University of Michigan – Ed Pike of Energy Solutions We would also like to thank the following ICCT staff who closely reviewed this report. – Anup Bandivadekar, program director – Gaurav Bansal, researcher – Anil Baral, senior researcher – Freda Fung, senior policy analyst – John German, senior fellow – Drew Kodjak, executive director – Peter Mock, managing director, ICCT Europe All errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors. International Council on Clean Transportation 1225 I Street NW, Suite 900 Washington DC 20005 www.theicct.org © 2012 International Council on Clean Transportation Design by Hahn und Zimmerman, Bern Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary 2 7 Fleet characteristics and technology adoption by major domestic 2 Introduction 9 manufacturers 44 2.1 Background 9 7.1 Major vehicle specifications and 2.2 Objectives 10 fuel consumption by manufacturers 45 2.3 Existing literature and added value 7.1.1 Engine size 45 of this report 11 7.1.2 Curb weight 45 2.4 Organization 12 7.1.3 Power and torque 45 3 Data description 13 7.1.4 Max speed, power-to-weight ratio and engine specific power 45 4 Technology adoption 7.1.5 Fuel consumption 46 by vehicle market segment 15 7.1.6 Vehicle price and size 46 4.1 Description of car classification 7.2 Technology adoption by methodologies 15 manufacturers 50 4.2 Profile of major vehicle 7.2.1 Engine technologies 50 specifications by market segment 18 7.2.2 Transmissions and drivetrain 4.3 Fuel-efficiency technology technologies 52 adoption by segment 25 7.3 Chinese independent automakers 4.3.1 Engine technologies 25 vs. joint venture automakers 53 4.3.2 Transmission technologies 28 7.4 Geely vs. Chevrolet vs. VW 53 4.3.3 Drivetrain technologies 28 7.5 Summary 55 4.4 Summary 31 8 Conclusions and 5 Comparisons among policy recommendations 56 car fleets from different regions 32 8.1 By-segment analysis 56 6 Technology adoption by 8.2 By-region fleet analysis 57 domestic vs. import fleet 35 8.3 Comparison between import 6.1 Fleet characteristics comparison 35 and domestic fleet 57 6.2 Distribution of vehicle 8.4 Comparison among major characteristics 36 domestic manufacturers 58 6.3 Correlation between fuel 8.5 Policy recommendations 59 consumption and key vehicle Annex 60 technical parameters 37 References 60 6.4 Import vs. domestic SUV 40 Efficiency technologies 61 6.5 Technology adoption of import Glossary 65 and domestic fleets 41 Abbreviations of auto manufacturers 66 6.5.1 Engine technologies 41 List of Tables 67 6.5.2 Transmission technologies 42 List of Figures 67 6.6 Summary 43 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With an incredible 26 % annual average growth rate of vehicle produc- tion over the past decade, China has become the world’s largest new car market. But the rapid growth in automobile use has also put in- creasing pressure on the nation’s goals of oil independence and cli- mate change mitigation. Realizing these challenges, China introduced two phases of vehicle fuel consumption regulations for light-duty ve- hicles in 2005, and is planning to implement the third phase by the end of 2015. In addition to dramatically reducing the fleet’s fuel consumption, these increasingly tightened standards also aim at upgrading China’s auto industry with world-class vehicle efficiency technologies, and shorten- ing its technological gap from traditionally motorized countries and regions such as the United States and the European Union. Moving forward, China’s recently released long-term auto industry develop- ment plan explicitly emphasized the importance of modernizing the fleet by developing more efficient and cleaner vehicles. In this context, this paper analyzes the status of fuel efficiency technol- ogy adoption of the current Chinese new passenger car fleet, focusing on the differences among major car market segments, between Chi- nese independent automakers and joint venture manufacturers, and between domestically produced and import fleets. This paper also compares side-by-side the status of technology application across the Chinese, EU, and US car fleets. Its findings, as listed below, provide -in sights on how to improve current car fuel consumption regulations and develop future standards. – Major vehicle specifications such as engine displacement, curb weight (also commonly rendered as “kerb weight,” the British spell- ing), footprint, and power are in between the levels of the US and EU car fleets (excluding diesel cars). Given the average size of the vehi- cles (9 % heavier and 1 % bigger than the EU car fleet, and 21 % lighter and 10 % smaller than the US car fleet), the Chinese fleet is less fuel- efficient than those of the other two regions (26 % more fuel-con- sumptive than the EU car fleet and only 4 % less fuel-consumptive than the US car fleet). China lags significantly behind either one of or both the EU and US in terms of most major efficiency technologies, including variable valve timing, direct gasoline injection, turbocharg- ing and supercharging, though it is catching up on the application of certain technologies such as dual clutch transmission (with a similar adoption rate as that of the US). These findings are summarized in Table 1.1 and detailed in Section 5. NEW PASSENGER CAR FLEET IN CHINA, 2010: TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AND COMPARISON 2 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EU PC EU Gasoline US LDV US PC Chinese Parameters Fleet a PC Fleet a Fleet b Fleet b PC Fleet Basic Specifications Engine size (L) 1.6 1.4 3.1 2.6 1.7 Curb weight (kg) 1,322 1,172 1,815 1,611 1,280 Footprint (m2) 3.90 3.75 4.51 4.22 3.79 Utility Power (kW) 84 77 174 c 156c 86 Max speed (km / h) 185 178 223 218 170 Power-to-weight ratio (W / kg) 62 63 96 97 65 Engine specific power (kW / L) 51 52 57 60 51 Fuel Consumption and CO2 Urban FC (L / 100 km)e 7.4 8.1 9.8 8.6 10.4 Extra-urban FC (L / 100 km)e 4.9 5.1 6.4 5.6 6.3 Combined FC (L / 100 km)e 5.8 6.2 8.3 7.3 7.8 Combined NEDC FC (L / 100 km) 5.8 6.2 9.4 8.1 7.8 f CO2 (combined) 143 145 195 171 183 Technology Adoption Fuel Type CNG / LPG / flexible-fuel 3 % - - - 0 % Diesel 51 % - 1 % 1 % 1 % Unleaded gasoline 44 % 100 % 96 % 94 % 99 % Hybrid: unleaded gasoline / electric 1 % - 4 % 5 % <1 % Transmission Automatic 9 % 14 % 84 % 80 % 34 % CVT 2 % 1 % 11 % 14 % 5 % DCT 3 % - 1 %d 2 %d 1 % Manual 86 % 83 % 4 % 5 % 60 % Number of Gears ≤ 4 1 % 2 % 25 % 29 % 12 % 5 59 % 51 % 24 % 21 % 66 % ≥ 6 38 % 17 % 41 % 36 % 17 % Fuel Supply Carburetor - - 0 % 0 % <1 % Diesel injection - - 1 % 1 % <1 % Gasoline direct injection 14 % 32 % 8 % 8 % 6 % Multipoint injection - - 77 % 80 % 82 % Single-point injection - - 0 % 0 % 11 % Sequential fuel injection - - 14 % 11 % 0 % Air Intake Naturally aspirated 41 % 80 % - - 93 % Turbocharged or supercharged 59 % 16 % 4 % 4 % 7 % Variable Valve Timing - - 84 % 91 % 44 % Variable Valve Lift Continuous VVL - - 2 % 2 % 1 % Discrete VVL - - 15 % 16 % 5 % Notes: c The US values are reported e Fuel consumption: Region- Table 1.1 as net power, which is specific test cycle used; for a Source: ICCT EU database different from China’s rated US data, lab data rather than and ICCT European Vehicle Comparison of fleet power. Based on GB adjusted data used. Market Statistics: 2011 7258-2004, US values were average characteris- Pocketbook (Campestrini, f CO data: Region specific test converted to rated power. 2 M., & Mock, P., 2011) cycle used; for US, raw FTP tics and technology d Automatic without lockup and HWY lab data rather b Source: EPA 2011 and 2010 applications across from 2011 EPA trends report than adjust values in 2011 Trends Reports is assumed to be DCT. EPA Trends report was used; EU, US, and Chinese for China, the whole fleet was car fleets, 2010 assumed to run on gasoline for CO2 calculation. NEW PASSENGER CAR FLEET IN CHINA, 2010: TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AND COMPARISON 3 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – Import cars, as a small fraction of the total market, were mainly large, high-performance, luxury, and gas-guzzling vehicles. Nearly half of the import fleet was fuel-consumptive SUVs. Overall, more advanced engine and transmission technologies were found in the import fleet, but they were used to boost performance rather than fuel economy. A detailed technological comparison of China’s import and domestic fleets can be found in Section 6. – The Chinese mini-to-large-car segments are quite similar to their counterparts in the EU in terms of key vehicle specifications (see Table 1.2).