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No. 238 22 July 2019 russian analytical digest www.css.ethz.ch/en/publications/rad.html www.laender-analysen.de NORTH CAUCASUS ■■ANALYSIS Radical Islam in the North Caucasus 2 By Sufian N. Zhemukhov, George Washington University ■■ANALYSIS Chechnya under Ramzan Kadyrov 5 By Ekaterina Sokirianskaia, Conflict Analysis and Prevention Center ■■ANALYSIS The Reintegration of the Balkars and Intercommunal Peace in Post-Soviet Kabardino-Balkaria 9 By Ian Lanzillotti, Bethany College, West Virginia ■■MAP Regions (“Subjects”) of the Russian Federation in the North Caucasus 13 Institute for European, Research Centre Center for Center for German Association for Russian, and Eurasian Studies for East European Studies Security Studies Eastern European Studies East European Studies The George Washington University University of Bremen ETH Zurich University of Zurich RUSSIAN ANALYTICAL DIGEST No. 238, 22 July 2019 2 ANALYSIS Radical Islam in the North Caucasus By Sufian N. Zhemukhov, George Washington University DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000355527 Abstract After the Chechen wars, the North Caucasus and other regions of Russia were shaken by numerous terror- ist attacks. Most of them were committed by the Caucasus Emirate, founded in 2007 and based on a rad- icalized version of Salafism and al Qaeda terrorism tactics. Russian security measures, internal tensions and above all the rivalry with the Islamic State (ISIS), which from 2014 had the backing of many North Cauca- sus fighters in the Middle East, have led to a loss of importance for the Caucasus Emirate. Violent Upsurge Anzor Astemirov, the leader of the Kabardino-Bal- Russia’s North Caucasus experienced an upsurge in vio- karia insurgents, first proposed to unite all the anti-Rus- lence after the fall of the Soviet Union. After the hun- sian religious groups in the North Caucasus in early dreds of thousands of casualties from the two Russian– 2005, however, the president of the Chechen Republic of Chechen wars of the 1990s, the emergence of a jihadist Ichkeria (ChRI), Abdul-Khalim Sadullayev, rejected the insurgency in the 2000s brought with it numerous ter- proposal. After the death of Sadullayev in Summer 2006, rorist acts. Jihadists expanded the geography of vio- the new president of the ChRI, Doku Umarov, accepted lence from Chechnya to most North Caucasus regions Astemirov’s offer and created the Caucasus Emirate. The and beyond. Two violent jihadist movements adopted CE included six vilayats (administrative divisions). The radical Islam as their ideology. The Caucasus Emirate new ideology, based on radical Islam without national- established a network of jihadists in each region and ism, was established as the foundation of the Caucasus organized terrorist acts beginning in 2007. Pro-ISIS Emirate in October 2007. Umarov became the execu- jihadists emerged in the North Caucasus on the eve of tive leader (Emir), and Astemirov became the ideologi- the 2014 Sochi Olympics. The Caucasus Emirate leaders cal and judicial leader (Kadi of the sharia court). denounced the pro-ISIS movement in the North Cau- CE existed as a decentralized structure both institu- casus. However, many insurgents and would-be fighters tionally and ideologically. Each vilayat could have its went to the Middle East and joined ISIS. With the Cau- own independent structure and policy. When Umarov casus Emirate under pressure, pro-ISIS jihadists gained announced that the CE should increase its activities dur- more popularity in the North Caucasus. ing the run up to the 2014 Sochi Olympics, some other vilayats pursued differing goals, including the Ingush The Caucasus Emirate vilayat’s decision to prioritize nationalist goals and stop The Caucasus Emirate (CE) proclaimed its authority on targeting local police officers and the Kabardino-Bal- the territory of most North Caucasus republics in 2007, karia-Karachai vilayat’s decision to intensify targeting establishing radical Islam as its political ideology. The “hypocrites, idolaters, and necromancers,” alongside the CE carried out terrorist acts in Ingushetia, Dagestan, law enforcement structures. Chechnya, and Kabardino-Balkaria, as well as outside Despite the differences among the CE branches, tar- of the Caucasus. The establishment of the CE brought geting the Sochi Olympics remained the main strategy with it a radical version of Islam, though radical Islam of the insurgents. CE terrorist activities became the big- had existed since the end of the First Chechen War as gest challenge facing Russia’s domestic security forces. a marginal movement. The CE transformed radical Thanks to extraordinary security measures, the Rus- Islam into a political force, crystallizing the extrem- sian authorities managed to prevent any terrorist acts ist trend. in Sochi and the overall numbers of terrorist attacks While the First Chechen War was fought mostly dropped starting in 2010. However, the CE organized by local recruits and was based on a nationalist ideol- a number of terrorist attacks in other parts of Russia, ogy, the insurgent leaders of the Second Chechen War including two explosions in Moscow, in 2010–2011, sought to expand the insurgency across the North Cau- a series of explosions in Volgograd, in 2013, and a ter- casus, using religious radicalism as their ideology. The rorist attack in the capital city of the North Caucasus cooperation between local extremist groups started in Federal District, Pyatigorsk, on New Year’s Eve 2014. Kabardino-Balkaria and Chechnya, though no formal After the 2014 Sochi Olympics, the Russian security structure existed until 2005. services interrupted the CE network infrastructure and RUSSIAN ANALYTICAL DIGEST No. 238, 22 July 2019 3 killed the leaders of CE one by one, including the foun- in spite of the fact that Umarov announced targeting der of the CE, Doku Umarov, in April 2014, the sec- the Sochi Olympics as a priority. Instead, an unknown ond leader Aliaskhab Kebekov, in April 2015, the third insurgency group released a video taking responsibility leader, Mukhamed Suleimanov, in August 2015, and for the attacks and threatening to conduct more attacks the fourth leader, Zalim Shebzukhov, in August 2016. during the Sochi Games. The new insurgency group was not connected to the CE and named themselves Radical Islam as a Version of Salafism Ansar al-Sunna, after the terrorist organization fighting Different branches of the CE developed specific tacti- against the United States in Iraq. The split between the cal skills, like targeting civilians, law enforcement offi- CE and Ansar al-Sunna became the first indication of cers, and the Sochi Olympics. However, the disputes a split between the pro-al Qaeda jihadists and pro-ISIS among the different branches over the tactical prefer- jihadists in the North Caucasus. ences remained ideological/theological. The ideology of In September 2014, ISIS threatened to begin a war in radical Islam in the North Caucasus was based on Sala- the North Caucasus as retaliation for Russia’s help to the fism from the beginning. Although Salafi Islam is not Syrian regime of Bashar Assad. On 21 November 2014, necessarily radical, the CE adopted a radicalized ver- the first insurgent from the North Caucasus, Suleiman sion of Salafism, suggesting that all spheres of society Zainelabidov, openly pledged his allegiance to ISIS. CE should be based on the law and spirit of Islam. The CE leaders announced that Zainelabidov was not an official brand of Salafism also practiced intolerance, extremist member of the CE and accused him of causing a split behaviors, and hostility toward Muslims with differ- among the insurgents. ing beliefs, labeling them “hypocrites.” The founders of More importantly, on 19 December 2014, the leader the CE shared a common ideological ground, agreeing of the CE’s Dagestan branch, Rustam Asilderov, pledged both on terrorist measures against Islamic leaders who his allegiance to ISIS’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. worked with the Russian state and toward Russian law The leader of the CE, Aliaskhab Kebekov, responded enforcement agencies (siloviki). As the executive leader condemning Asilderov as a traitor and of splitting the of the CE, Umarov organized planned terrorist actions insurgency. Kebekov replaced Asilderov, which did not against both “infidels” and siloviki, while as the judi- prevent a number of other senior CE commanders fol- cial leader of the CE, Astemirov issued ideological state- lowing Asilderov, including the leader of the Ingush ments against “traitorous Imams.” branch of the Caucasus Emirate, Beslan Makhauri, and Initially, the Caucasus Emirate did not have a uni- the leader of a suicide squadron, Aslan Byutukaev. fied approach toward non-Salafi Muslims. Some of the After Kebekov’s death, in April 2015, the third leader insurgency leaders, including Umarov, advocated vio- of CE, Mukhamed Suleimanov continued the pro-al lence against civilians, including non-Salafi Muslims Qaeda policy. At the same time, the number of pro-ISIS and argued for a broader definition of the enemy, beyond insurgents in the North Caucasus increased. In June those who attacked insurgents directly. Other leaders, 2015, Caucasus Emirate branches in Dagestan, Chech- including Astemirov, spoke against unnecessary vio- nya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachai- lence against Muslims and for seeking the support of Cherkessia announced their support for ISIS. After that, the local population and for converting all Muslims to ISIS announced that it had established a branch in Rus- Salafism and radical Islam. Those ideological debates sia’s North Caucasus under the leadership of Asilderov. did not split the movement, but shaped differences in The North Caucasus insurgents organized a number of tactics between CE vilayats. terrorist attacks in the name of ISIS, including in Dage- stan, Chechnya, and Astrakhan. Clashes Between Different Trends of One of the main splits among the pro-al Qaeda Radical Islam and pro-ISIS insurgents took place in Kabardino-Bal- The leaders of the Caucasus Emirate initially announced karia, where the pro-al Qaeda political ideology ini- their loyalty to al Qaeda, following al Qaeda’s tactics tially emerged under the leadership of Astemirov.