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Main Report SUPER – Sustainable Urbanization and Land-Use Practices in European Regions Main Report // November 2020

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Main Report SUPER – Sustainable Urbanization and Land-Use Practices in European Regions Main Report // November 2020 APPLIED RESEARCH // Main Report SUPER – Sustainable Urbanization and land-use Practices in European Regions Main Report // November 2020 This Applied research is conducted within the framework of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme, partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund. The ESPON EGTC is the Single Beneficiary of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme. The Single Operation within the programme is implemented by the ESPON EGTC and co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund, the EU Member States and the Partner States, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. This delivery does not necessarily reflect the opinions of members of the ESPON 2020 Monitoring Committee. Authors David Evers, Maarten van Schie, Lia van den Broek, Kersten Nabielek, Jan Ritsema van Eck, Frank van Rijn, Ries van der Wouden, PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Netherlands), Volker Schmidt-Seiwert, Anna Hellings, Regine Binot, Lukas Kiel, supported by Jonathan Terschanski, BBSR - Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (Germany), Giancarlo Cotella, Umberto Janin Rivolin, Alys Solly, Erblin Berisha, Donato Casavola, Politecnico di Torino (Italy),Ivana Katurić, Mario Gregar, Sven Simov, Katarina Pavlek, Ranko Lipovac, URBANEX (Croatia), Joaquín Farinós-Dasí, Albert Llausàs, Carmen Zornoza-Gallego, University of Valencia (Spain), Dorota Celinska-Janowicz, Adam Ploszaj, Katarzyna Wojnar, University of Warsaw, Centre for European Regional and Local Studies - EUROREG (Poland), Mailin Gaupp-Berghausen, Erich Dallhammer, Bernd Schuh, Ursula Mollay, Roland Gaugitsch, Liudmila Slivinskaya, ÖIR GmbH - Austrian Institute for Regional Studies (Austria), Tristan Claus, University of Ghent (Belgium) Advisory group Project Support Team: Isabelle Loris, Flanders Department of Environment (Belgium), Tamara Slobodova, Ministry of Transport and Construction (Slovakia), Harald Noreik, Ministry of Local Government and Modernisation, (Norway), Frederick-Christoph Richters, Ministry of Energy and Spatial Planning (Luxembourg), ESPON EGTC: Marjan van Herwijnen (project expert), György Alfoldy (financial expert). Information on ESPON and its projects can be found at www.espon.eu. The website provides the possibility to download and examine the most recent documents produced by finalised and ongoing ESPON projects. ISBN: 978-2-919795-39-0 © ESPON, 2020 Published in October 2020 Graphic design by BGRAPHIC, Denmark Printing, reproduction or quotation is authorised provided the source is acknowledged and a copy is forwarded to the ESPON EGTC in Luxembourg. Contact: [email protected] APPLIED RESEARCH // Main Report SUPER – Sustainable Urbanization and land-use Practices in European Regions Main Report // November 2020 APPLIED RESEARCH // Main Report Table of contents List of maps ......................................................................................................................................... 7 List of figures....................................................................................................................................... 8 List of Tables ....................................................................................................................................... 9 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................... 10 Executive summary .......................................................................................................................... 12 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 15 1.1 Aim and ambition ...................................................................................................................... 15 1.2 Key terms and working definitions ............................................................................................ 16 1.2.1 Sustainability ............................................................................................................................. 16 1.2.2 Urbanization and land use ........................................................................................................ 16 1.2.3 Practices ................................................................................................................................... 16 1.2.4 European Regions .................................................................................................................... 17 1.3 Conceptual framework .............................................................................................................. 17 1.3.1 Urbanization and land-use drivers ............................................................................................ 17 1.3.2 Practices governing land-use decisions .................................................................................... 18 1.3.3 Outcomes in European Regions ............................................................................................... 18 1.3.4 Sustainability assessment ......................................................................................................... 18 2 Urbanization and land-use development in Europe ..................................................... 19 2.1 Overview of changes 2000-2018 .............................................................................................. 19 2.1.1 Urbanization .............................................................................................................................. 20 2.1.2 Non-urban land use change ...................................................................................................... 23 2.1.3 Urban typology .......................................................................................................................... 24 2.1.4 Morphological analysis .............................................................................................................. 26 2.2 Sustainability of developments.................................................................................................. 30 2.2.1 Economic sustainability of land-use developments ................................................................... 31 2.2.2 Environmental sustainability of land-use developments ............................................................ 33 2.2.3 Social sustainability of land-use developments ......................................................................... 35 3 Interventions and their effects ........................................................................................ 36 3.1 Overview of interventions .......................................................................................................... 36 3.2 Effects of interventions .............................................................................................................. 37 3.3 EU policies and their effects ..................................................................................................... 41 4 Understanding practices in context: case studies ....................................................... 45 4.1 Intervening in development practices ........................................................................................ 47 4.1.1 Contextual factors ..................................................................................................................... 47 4.1.2 Factors influencing decision-making on interventions ............................................................... 47 4.1.2.1 Knowledge, data and technical capacity ................................................................................... 47 4.1.2.2 Public participation and visions ................................................................................................. 48 4.1.2.3 Institutional leadership and stakeholder relations ..................................................................... 48 4.2 Sustainability assessment of interventions ............................................................................... 48 4.2.1 Sustainability assessment of goals ........................................................................................... 49 4.2.2 Sustainability assessment of outcomes .................................................................................... 51 4.3 Conclusion and reflection .......................................................................................................... 55 4.3.1 Interventions as catalysts for cultural change ........................................................................... 55 4.3.2 Interventions as innovations ..................................................................................................... 55 5 Imagining future urbanization and land-use pathways ................................................ 57 5.1 Scenario logic and setup ........................................................................................................... 58 ESPON // espon.eu 5 APPLIED RESEARCH // Main Report 5.2 Scenario storylines .................................................................................................................... 59 5.2.1 Compact ................................................................................................................................... 59 5.2.2 Polycentric ...............................................................................................................................
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