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Equity-Development-Apr-2018.Pdf Watkin Jones plc On track for another record year 5 April, 2018 At present there is a sharp difference of opinion on the future direction of UK property Company Data prices. In one corner, a handful of vociferous media pundits are calling for an eminent EPIC AIM:WJG correction. Whilst in the other, many expert fund managers are ploughing literally Price (last close) 182p £billions of fresh money into this resilient sector. You can see why, too. 52 week Hi/Lo 249p/154p Market cap £465m According to 4 esteemed economists (Jorda, Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick, and Taylor), ED valuation/share 225p UK housing delivered average real returns (net inflation) of 5.6% p.a. between 1870-2015 and 6.8% since 1980 – split roughly 60:40 capital:rental – vs 2.8% and 4.7% pa respectively for bonds. Better still, when included within a basket of 16 major Share Price, p OECD countries, residential property has also been considerably more stable than 300p equities. Never failing to increase in value over a 5-year period, and generating 250p the highest risk-weighted gains of any asset class. 200p 150p Continued demand for student accommodation… 100p Sure, certain well-heeled Central London neighbourhoods have been experiencing price 50p 0p deflation of late. Yet for Watkin Jones’ bread-and-butter of supplying purpose-built 03-16 07-16 11-16 03-17 07-17 11-17 03-18 student accommodation (PBSA), conditions remain buoyant. Underpinned by Source: DigitalLook favourable demographics, healthy capital inflows and robust demand from international students (eg from China & India) who typically seek quality living space. Company Description The latter being further boosted by President Trump’s decision this year to issue far fewer Watkin Jones provides the end-to- overseas visas in the US. end development and management of large scale, multi occupancy … on top of attractive prospects for BTR accommodation, focusing on purpose built student Looking ahead we expect these trends to be sustained, and believe similar accommodation (PBSA) and dynamics are taking root in the fledgling residential Build-to-Rent (BTR) market, residential build to rent (BTR). principally aimed at young-City dwellers. Here, the firm sees scope to leverage its respected brand and technical expertise, along with forward selling their multi Both are expanding areas with occupancy developments to yield-hungry institutional investors. attractive fundamentals – enabling the firm to leverage its reputation Ok, so how is the business performing? and industry expertise, along with operating a low risk, cashflow Well, this morning the Board released a positive trading statement for the 6 months positive and capital light model. ending March 2018, adding that demand remains strong, and H1 results (due on Residential property and agency 22nd May) would be in line with FY18 expectations. lettings (Fresh brand) are also set to In terms of specifics, WJG has a development pipeline of >9,800 student beds (vs be long-term growth engines. 9,120 Sept’17), of which around 8,300 (or 85%, up from 7,497 at y/e) possess planning Next news: Interims, 22 May permission. All sites due for delivery this academic year (3,415 beds) have been forward sold with another 5 (2,675 beds) slated for 2019/20. Thus providing solid forward Paul Hill (Analyst) visibility. 0207 065 2690 For BTR, 3 sites secured planning in H1, located in Bournemouth, Sheffield and Sutton – [email protected] lifting the total consented pipeline to ~700 units. On top, another significant development in Uxbridge is progressing well - with the group now controlling 5 BTR Hannah Crowe schemes and in constructive negotiations on several others, from which it expects to 0207 065 2692 deliver over 1,500 units during the next 5 years. [email protected] Please refer to the important disclosures shown on the back page and note that this information is Non-independent and categorised as Marketing Material Watkin Jones plc 5 April, 2018 With regards to the numbers, we make no change to our forecasts, supported by circa 80% GP cover (ED estimate) for FY18. We calculate the stock is worth 225p/share - representing a deserved premium to peers (see below), thanks to its superior RoE, lower risk profile, robust cashflows and exposure to numerous secular trends. In fact, looking at the big picture in light of the tailwinds, we reckon the group should be able to more than double revenues over the next 6-7 years. Strong future returns expected for shareholders CEO Mark Watkin Jones commenting “I am delighted with the Group’s performance in the period. The outlook for the UK PBSA market is positive and demand for our high- quality product remains strong. Fresh Property Group (FPG) continues to be successful in securing new contracts and, from the start of the 2018/19 academic year, is contracted to manage over 14,000 beds.” As indicated at the prelims in January, the Curlew Student Trust has decided to sell its ‘Enigma’ portfolio, comprising 5,124 beds, to a 3rd party which operates its own in house lettings platform. As a result, the existing ‘full service’ contract with Fresh is set to terminate at the end of Apr’18, with compensation being paid for any outstanding term. That said, the successful launch of Curlew Student Trust 2 (‘CST2’), a similar investment vehicle focused on UK PBSA for which FPG is the preferred agency, offers a rich seam of possible future property work. Elsewhere, “We continue to make solid progress in the build to rent sector, and will update the market as these opportunities progress. Given the encouraging start to the financial year, we believe our business model will continue to deliver strong returns to shareholders”. Rated at a justified premium to the sector Current year Return on Equity (RoE) vs peers Sector average 17.7% Berkeley 17.6% Bellway 20.5% McCarthy & Stone 10.3% Telford Homes 16.3% Watkin Jones 26.4% Taylor Wimpey 22.0% Crest Nicholson 20.8% Redrow 20.6% Bovis 12.3% Barratt Devs 14.6% Persimmon 23.2% Springfield Props 12.3% Henry Boot 12.9% Gleeson 15.9% Countryside 19.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Source: Equity Development (RoE defined as EPS/NA) 2 www.equitydevelopment.co.uk 5 April, 2018 Watkin Jones plc CY ‘Price: net tangible assets (NTA)’ vs peers Sector average 1.7 Berkeley 1.9 Bellway 1.5 McCarthy & Stone 1.1 Telford Homes 1.2 Watkin Jones 3.2 Taylor Wimpey 1.9 Crest Nicholson 1.4 Redrow 1.5 Bovis 1.5 Barratt Devs 1.5 Persimmon 2.4 Springfield Props 1.6 Henry Boot 1.4 Gleeson 2.1 Countryside 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Source: Equity Development CY PER vs peers Sector average 9.7 Berkeley 10.5 Bellway 7.4 McCarthy & Stone 9.4 Telford Homes 7.2 Watkin Jones 12.1 Taylor Wimpey 8.8 Crest Nicholson 6.5 Redrow 7.3 Bovis 12.1 Barratt Devs 8.2 Persimmon 9.8 Springfield Props 13.2 Henry Boot 10.7 Gleeson 12.9 Countryside 9.4 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Source: Equity Development CY EV/EBIT vs peers Sector average 7.6 Berkeley 8.2 Bellway 5.8 McCarthy & Stone 7.1 Telford Homes 8.8 Watkin Jones 8.9 Taylor Wimpey 6.5 Crest Nicholson 4.7 Redrow 6.1 Bovis 8.7 Barratt Devs 6.1 Persimmon 6.7 Springfield Props 10.9 Henry Boot 8.5 Gleeson 9.7 Countryside 7.3 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Source: Equity Development www.equitydevelopment.co.uk 3 Watkin Jones plc 5 April, 2018 CY Dividend yield Sector average 4.8% Berkeley 4.8% Bellway 4.5% McCarthy & Stone 3.9% Telford Homes 4.5% Watkin Jones 4.1% Taylor Wimpey 8.1% Crest Nicholson 7.7% Redrow 4.1% Bovis 5.0% Barratt Devs 6.1% Persimmon 6.4% Springfield Props 3.1% Henry Boot 2.9% Gleeson 3.8% Countryside 3.3% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Source: Equity Development 4 www.equitydevelopment.co.uk 5 April, 2018 Watkin Jones plc Summary financial projections Watkin Jones (continuing) 2015 Act 2016 Est 2017 Act 2018 Est 2019 Est 2020 Est 2021 Est 2022 Est 2023 Est 2024 Est (Sept yearend) £'ms £'ms £'ms £'ms £'ms £'ms £'ms £'ms £'ms £'ms Turnover Student (PBSA) accommodation 228.2 237.2 256.1 280.0 285.0 295.0 300.0 300.0 300.0 300.0 Build to Rent (BTR) 0.0 0.0 1.2 20.0 60.0 90.0 125.0 170.0 210.0 250.0 Residential development 15.9 26.3 18.1 36.0 38.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 Fresh property management 2.8 6.1 7.0 7.0 8.1 8.9 9.7 10.7 11.8 Other / construction 0.2 0.7 20.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 244.2 267.0 301.9 343.0 390.0 433.1 478.9 529.7 575.7 621.8 Group revenue growth % YoY 73.5% 9.3% 13.1% 13.6% 13.7% 11.0% 10.6% 10.6% 8.7% 8.0% Student (PBSA) accommodation 3.9% 8.0% 9.3% 1.8% 3.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Build to Rent (BTR) 1544.7% 200.0% 50.0% 38.9% 36.0% 23.5% 19.0% Residential development -12.6% 65.3% -31.3% 99.2% 5.6% 5.3% 12.5% 11.1% 10.0% 9.1% Fresh property management 116.6% 14.3% 0.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Student (PBSA) accommodation 41.5 48.6 56.6 56.0 55.6 55.1 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 Build to Rent (BTR) 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.6 7.8 11.7 16.3 22.1 27.3 32.5 Residential development 2.7 3.0 3.0 5.4 7.6 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 Fresh property management 0.0 1.7 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.1 Other -0.1 0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Group gross profit 44.0 53.8 63.5 68.2 75.2 79.6 84.6 91.9 98.7 105.6 Group % margin 18.0% 20.2% 21.0% 19.9% 19.3% 18.4% 17.7% 17.4% 17.1% 17.0% Student (PBSA) accommodation 18.2% 20.5% 22.1% 20.0% 19.5% 18.7% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% Build to Rent (BTR) 56.3% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% Residential development 16.6% 11.5% 3.8% 15.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% Fresh property management 58.9% 49.4% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%
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