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Pdf | 670.24 Kb No. 152 1 April 2016 March 2016 – Trends Deteriorated situations Belgium, Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Libya, Pakistan, Tunisia, Turkey, Western Sahara Improved situations Colombia, Syria April 2016 – Watchlist Conflict risk alerts Chad, Libya d Conflict resolution opportunities Colombia, South Sudan, Yemen CrisisWatch summarises developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed sources. It assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly improved, or on balance re- mained more or less unchanged. It identifies situations where, in the coming month, there is a risk of new or significantly escalated conflict, or a conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may be both). It also summarises Crisis Group’s reports and briefing papers published the previous month. Arrows and alerts: Up, down and side arrows signify, respectively, improved, deteriorated or unchanged situations. Con- flict Risk Alerts (identified with bombs) or Conflict Resolution Opportunities (with doves) are used in addition to arrows: a bomb signifies a risk of escalated violence; a dove an opportunity to advance peace. Both bombs and doves tend to be used where events are moving fast. Table of Contents AFRICA .................................................................................................................................. 3 Central Africa ................................................................................................................. 3 Horn of Africa ................................................................................................................. 5 Southern Africa ............................................................................................................... 6 West Africa ..................................................................................................................... 7 ASIA ..................................................................................................................................... 10 North East Asia ............................................................................................................ 10 South Asia ................................................................................................................... 10 South East Asia ........................................................................................................... 13 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA ........................................................................................... 16 Balkans ........................................................................................................................ 16 Caucasus ..................................................................................................................... 16 Eastern Europe ............................................................................................................ 17 Western Europe/Mediterranean ................................................................................... 18 Central Asia ................................................................................................................. 19 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ............................................................................ 21 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA ....................................................................................... 23 Eastern Mediterranean ................................................................................................ 23 Gulf .............................................................................................................................. 24 North Africa .................................................................................................................. 26 CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of our some 125 staff members across five continents, who already report on some 60 of the situations listed here. Comments and suggestions can be sent to [email protected]. To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases and resources page at www.crisisgroup.org CrisisWatch N°152 International Crisis Group, 1 April 2016 Page 3 Africa Central Africa Burundi Violence increased while govt, under international pressure, made cosmetic concessions to opposition but continued repression. Gunmen killed three of- ficials during month including two from ruling party; two army officers also shot dead 22 March in separate incidents in Bujumbura. New wave of army defections 24 March. One soldier died in Muzinda military camp 28 March after reportedly trying to kill other soldiers; army claimed it was suicide. Two grenades thrown at police bus in Bu- jumbura 29 March, seven injured. Govt freed 158 political prisoners, suspended around fifteen arrest warrants, reauthorised one local NGO and reopened two radio stations, but police arrested opposition activists including on 9 March Nadebu party president Hugo Haramategeko. EU 14 March suspended direct budget support to govt, but will maintain humanitarian aid, 29 March said it will cut funding to Burundi’s peacekeeping contingent in Somalia. Ruling party 10 March claimed Rwandan Presi- dent Kagame behind plot to destabilise Burundi. Security services 7 March arrested man they claimed to be Rwandan spy; Rwanda 17 March denied allegation. Former Rwandan minister, arrested Dec 2015 for spying, died suddenly in Bujumbura prison 31 March. UN 22 March said 474 people killed in political violence since April 2015. UNHCR 4 March said over 250,000 Burundians have fled to neighbouring states. Cameroon Boko Haram (BH) attacks in Far North declined amid ongoing mili- tary operations. BH 5 March killed two local security committee members in Ganse; 8 March killed four civilians near Kolofata; 19 March killed two civilians near Amchide. Security forces prevented four suicide bombings during month, while two soldiers were killed and four injured in three IED incidents. Army 25 March caught two girls with explosives strapped to them in Limani, Far North. Military court 23 March sen- tenced 89 BH insurgents to death. BH insurgency worsening fragile political situation in Far North: protests took place during month against prefect and gendarmerie chief in Mokolo where deadly robberies are widely attributed to local gendarmerie; three gendarmes under investigation. Central African Republic Constitutional court 1 March validated President Touadéra’s Feb election victory. Touadéra 10 March formed political secretariat to de- fine priorities for forthcoming govt. France 30 March confirmed gradual withdrawal of Sangaris military mission by end of 2016. Constitutional court 14 March invalidated Feb legislative elections results for ten districts, citing irregularities. Second round leg- islative vote 31 March saw low voter turnout. Fighting in villages near central Bambari early month killed at least twelve. LRA and other armed groups in SE killed two, ab- ducted twenty in three attacks during month. International Criminal Court 21 March convicted Congolese former rebel Jean-Pierre Bemba of war crimes and crimes against humanity, judging him responsible for abuses committed by his militia in CAR 2002- 2003. Chad Protests against regime and govt repression continued raising concerns for potential violence around 10 April presidential election. Constitutional council 7 CrisisWatch N°152 International Crisis Group, 1 April 2016 Page 4 March validated fourteen presidential candidacies. Govt 19 March banned demonstra- tions except electoral campaigning. Police 21-23 March arrested several civil society leaders for calling for anti-Déby marches; all charged with “attack on public order”. Civil society coalitions called for national strike to protest arrests, strike widely ob- served 29 March. New Crisis Group Africa Report N°233, Chad: Between Ambition and Fragility, 30 March 2016. Ahead of Chad’s presidential election on 10 April popular discontent is rising amid a major economic crisis, growing intra-religious tensions and deadly Boko Haram attacks. The regime that portrays itself as spearheading the fight against regional jihadism could see all sorts of violent actors gain influence at home if it pursues exclusionary politics and denies its people a viable social contract. DR Congo Political crisis continued with no significant progress toward dia- logue, and elections planned for Nov increasingly likely to be delayed. Electoral com- mission (CENI) 18 March said it could not organise presidential and legislative elec- tions for Nov 2016 as planned due to extensive voter roll update, matter will likely be referred to constitutional court; ruling coalition insists on need for dialogue, opposi- tion continues to refuse, but apparently willing to meet AU mediator Edem Kodjo. G7 group of opposition parties 30 March announced it would back ex-Katanga Governor Moïse Katumbi as presidential candidate if he runs. Indirect elections of provincial governors held 26 March in all but one of 21 newly established provinces after CENI and courts rejected most opposition candidacies. Ruling coalition claimed victory in fifteen provinces, including four created by division of mineral-rich former Katanga province. In South Ubangi province, governor election delayed due to contested elec- tion
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