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Small States in the Middle East DOI: 10.14267/phd.2019001 CORVINUS UNIVERSITY OF BUDAPEST SMALL STATES IN THE MIDDLE EAST The Foundations and Application of the Complex Model of Size DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Supervisor: László Csicsmann, PhD Associate Professor Máté Szalai Budapest, 2018 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2019001 Máté Szalai Small States in the Middle East The Foundations and Application of the Complex Model of Size DOI: 10.14267/phd.2019001 Institute of International Studies Supervisor: László Csicsmann, PhD Associate Professor © Máté Szalai DOI: 10.14267/phd.2019001 Corvinus University of Budapest International Relations Multidisciplinary Doctoral School Small States in the Middle East The Foundations and Application of the Complex Model of Size Doctoral Dissertation Szalai Máté Budapest, 2018 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2019001 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2019001 List of contents List of charts and maps .................................................................................................. 5 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 8 1. THE COMPLEX MODEL OF SIZE ................................................................... 15 1.1. Conceptualising size ................................................................................................ 15 1.2. The four types of size ................................................................................................ 18 1.2.1. Absolute size – materialist individualism ...................................................... 18 1.2.2. Relative size – materialist structuralism ........................................................ 28 1.2.3. Perceptual size – idealist individualism ........................................................ 37 1.2.4. Normative size – idealist structuralism ......................................................... 43 1.3. The basic analytical concepts and the methodology of the complex model of size.. 47 2. THE APPLICATION OF THE COMPLEX MODEL OF SIZE – THE MIDDLE EAST ............................................................................................................. 55 2.1. Identifying complex small states .............................................................................. 55 2.1.1. Distribution of general aggregate resources ................................................. 55 2.1.2. The main attributes of Middle Eastern complex small states ........................ 64 2.2. The environment of the two clusters of complex small states in the Middle East .... 71 2.2.1. The material environment: historical developments and balances of power 72 2.2.2. The immaterial environment: norms related to size and power .................... 93 3. THE APPLICATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL THEORIES OF SMALL STATES – THE SMALL GULF STATES ............................................................... 109 3.1. Absolute size ........................................................................................................... 109 3.1.1. Territorial smallness .................................................................................... 110 3.1.2. Demographic smallness ............................................................................... 115 3.1.3. Economic smallness ..................................................................................... 127 3.1.4. Military smallness ........................................................................................ 140 3.2. Perceptual size ....................................................................................................... 151 3.2.1. Surveys and polls – social identity and normative homogeneity ................. 154 3.2.3. The role of smallness in self-perception – behaviour in the Security Council ............................................................................................................................... 160 3.3. Regime security in the small Gulf states ................................................................ 174 3.4. Conclusion – the triangle of absolute size, perceptual size and regime security and compensatory policies ................................................................................................... 182 3 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2019001 4. CASE STUDIES OF FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY BEHAVIOUR ..... ............................................................................................................................... 184 4.1. Debates regarding a Gulf union and the creation of the GCC (1968-1971) ......... 184 4.2. Threat perception, the Iranian revolution and the first Gulf war (1979-1989) ..... 193 4.3. Alliance-making, superpowers and the second and third Gulf war (1990-2003) .. 208 4.4. The Arab Uprisings – domestic and foreign policy strategies (2011-2013) .......... 231 4.5. The Gulf rift and the Qatari survival strategy (2017-2018) .................................. 247 4.6. Concluding remarks - how smallness effects foreign and security policy ............. 259 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................ 262 Bibliography ................................................................................................................ 271 4 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2019001 List of charts and maps Chart 1: The four sociologies of international politics 16 Chart 2: The basic framework of the complex model of size 17 Chart 3: Comparison of the main theories of material structuralism 36 Chart 4: Operationalisation of perceptual size 42 Chart 5: The positive and negative effects of smallness in terms of the four 50 GARs Chart 6: Types of relative small states 52 Chart 7: Methodological steps for the application of the complex model of size 54 Chart 8: The Egyptian and Iranian military expenditure vis-á-vis the regional 59 average (1970-2017) Chart 9: Correlation between the yearly fluctuation of the average of 60 economic output and military expenditures (1971-2017) Chart 10: The main statistical data about the regional distribution of GARs in 63 the Middle East (2017) Chart 11: Categorisation of Middle Eastern states based on their size 64 Chart 12: The fluctuation of the economic share of complex small states 66 (1970-2015) Chart 13: The fluctuation of the share of complex small states in military 67 expenditures (1970-2017) Chart 14: Categorisation of Middle Eastern states 69 Chart 15: Conflicts in the Middle East (1970-2017) 82 Chart 16: The main periods of the modern Middle Eastern regional system 90 Chart 17: Small state involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts 91 Chart 18: Normative size of small states in absolute terms 103 Chart 19: Normative size of small states in relative terms 105 Chart 20: The ratio of events of verbal confrontation in all events 107 Chart 21: The ratio of arable lands in all land area (1970-2015) 111 Chart 22: Population size in the four small Gulf states (1970-2017) 116 Chart 23: Population statistics in 1970 117 Chart 24: Share of migrant population, 1970-2015 118 Chart 25: Estimated ratio of the Shia community in the small Gulf states 123 Chart 26: The Gross Domestic Product of the four small Gulf states, 1970- 127 2017 (current USD) Chart 27: The ratio of the members of the GCC in economic output (current 128 USD) (1975-2017) Chart 28: Export market concentration ratio in the small Gulf states 131 Chart 29: National visions in the small Gulf states 134 Chart 30: GDP/capita ration in the four small Gulf states and selected country 135 groups (1970-2017) Chart 31: The inflation-adjusted monthly oil price between 1971 and 2017 136 Chart 32: Armed personnel in the small Gulf states in absolute terms (1990- 141 2017) Chart 33: Armed personnel in proportion to the national workforce (1990- 141 2016) Chart 34: Military expenditures in ratio of GDP (1980-2016) 142 5 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2019001 Chart 35: The interaction of variables determining the absolute size of the four 149- Gulf states 151 Chart 36: The difference between those who have a favourable view on the 158 given actor and those who have an unfavourable view (percentage point) Chart 37: The perception of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Arab League and the 159 United States in national and sectarian communities Chart 38: Opinion on the national culture being equal, superior or inferior to 160 the Iranian culture Chart 39: The basic data on the behaviour of the small Gulf states in the 162 Security Council Chart 40: Commonalities and particularities in the perceptual size of the small 173 Gulf states Chart 41: Compensatory policies in the four Gulf states 183- 184 Chart 42: The threat perception of the four Gulf states regarding the Iranian 201- revolution and the first Gulf war 202 Chart 43: The triangle of alliance policy in the Gulf 210 Chart 44: The comparison of the Arab Uprising events and governmental 242 reactions in the small Gulf states, 2011-2013 Chart 45: Size of armed forces in the Quartet states and Qatar (size of 253 personnel) Map 1: Territorial small states in the Middle East (2017) 56 Map 2: Demographic small states in the Middle East (2017) 57 Map 3: Economic small states in the Middle East (2017) 58 Map 4: Military small states in the Middle East (2016) 61 Map 5: Complex small states in the Middle East 65 6 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2019001 Acknowledgements While writing a dissertation is an individual work, it is unimaginable without the help of many others. First and foremost, I would like to thank the continuous support of my supervisor, Professor László Csicsmann, who has guided me since my Bachelor
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