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Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project Number: 46389-001 December 2015 Republic of the Union of Myanmar: Institutional Strengthening of National Energy Management Committee in Energy Policy and Planning (Financed by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction and the Technical Assistance Special Fund) Part 4 of 16 – Chapter C: Energy Resources Inventory Prepared by TA 8356-MYA, Intelligent Energy Systems (IES), Consulting Firm For the Oil & Gas Planning Department of the Ministry of Electricity & Energy This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proprosed project’s design. Asian Development Bank The Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar National Energy Management Committee Myanmar Energy Master Plan December 2015 Project Number: TA No. 8356-MYA FINAL REPORT MYANMAR ENERGY MASTER PLAN Prepared for The Asian Development Bank and The Myanmar Ministry of Energy Prepared by in association with December 2015 ADB TA 8356 Myanmar Energy Master Plan Final Report AUTHORS Michael Emmerton Stuart Thorncraft Sakari Oksanen U Myint Soe Kyi Kyi Hlaing Yi Yi Thein U Myat Khin Project Number: TA No. 8356-MYA FINAL REPORT ENERGY RESOURCE INVENTORY Prepared for The Asian Development Bank and The Myanmar Ministry of Energy Prepared by in association with ADB TA 8356-MYA Myanmar Energy Master Plan Final Report ABBREVIATIONS ADB - Asian Development Bank AFOC - Asian Forum of Coal ASEAN - Association of Southeast Asian Nations CAPEX - Capital Expenditure CCS - Carbon Capture and Storage CFBC - Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustion CNG - Compressed Natural Gas CSO - Central Statistics Organisation CSP - Concentrating Solar Plant DRD - Department of Rural Development EIA - Environmental Impact Analysis EMP - Energy Master Plan EPC - Engineering Procurement Construction ESE - Electricity Supply Enterprise FOB - Free On Board FSRU - Floating Storage Regasification Unit GCV - Gross Calorific Value GDP - Gross Domestic Product GoM - Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar HHV - Higher Heating Value IDC - Interest During Construction IGCC - Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle IOR - Improved Petroleum Recovery JCOAL - Japan Coal Energy Centre JICA - Japan International Cooperation Agency LCOE - Levelized Cost of Energy (or Electricity) LNG - Liquefied Natural Gas MEPE - Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise MES - Myanmar Engineering Society META - Model for Electricity Technology Assessment MOAI - Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation MOE - Ministry of Energy MOECF - Ministry of Environmental Conservation and Forestry MOEP - Ministry of Electric Power MOGE - Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise MOI - Ministry of Industry 140 ADB TA 8356-MYA Myanmar Energy Master Plan Final Report MOLFRD - Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural Development MOST - Ministry of Science and Technology NCEA - National Commission for Environmental Affairs NCV - Net Calorific Value NEMC - National Energy Management Committee NG - Natural Gas O&M - Operation and Maintenance OPEX - Operational Expenditure PC - Pulverized Coal Combustion PCC - Performance Compensation Contract PP - Power Plant PSC - Production Sharing Contract PV - Photovoltaic RSF - Reactivation of Suspended Fields SC - Supercritical TA - Technical Assistance USC - Ultra Supercritical UNITS OF MEASURE IG - Imperial Gallon km - Kilometre l - Litre gal - Gallon cfd - Cubic Feet per Day MW - Megawatt Btu - British Thermal Unit Passenger-km - Passenger-Kilometre Ton-km - Metric Ton-Kilometre TOE, toe - Tonne of Oil Equivalent BCF, bcf - Billion Cubic Feet WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 ha = 2.47105 acre 1 km2 = 100 ha 141 ADB TA 8356-MYA Myanmar Energy Master Plan Final Report CONVERSION FACTORS 1 litre = 0.22 Imperial Gallon 1 km = 0.62137 mile 1 TOE = 11.63 MWh 142 ADB TA 8356-MYA Myanmar Energy Master Plan Final Report CONTENTS FOREWORD 145 I. OIL 146 A. Myanmar’s Oil Resources 146 B. Oil Refining Capacity 147 C. Oil Consumption 147 D. Upstream and Downstream Development Possibilities 148 E. Development Possibilities in the Oil Refining Sector 150 II. NATURAL GAS 151 A. Introduction 151 B. Natural Gas Reserves 151 C. Production Activities and Related Infrastructure 155 D. Gas Consumption and Export 158 E. Natural Gas for Power Production 160 F. Gas for Transportation 162 G. Gas for Fertilizers 162 H. Gas Price and Cost Estimates for Gas Based Power 163 I. Summary 165 III. COAL RESOURCES 166 J. Introduction 166 K. Coal Resources 166 L. Existing Coal Mining Activities 170 M. Current Coal Fired Power Assets 173 N. Cost Estimates 174 IV. RENEWABLE ENERGY 176 O. Introduction 176 P. Solar Energy 179 Q. Wind Energy 181 R. Biomass 183 S. Biofuels 185 V. HYDROPOWER 187 T. Introduction 187 U. Existing Hydropower Plants 190 V. Institutional and Legal Setting 193 W. Energy Contribution and Availability of Hydropower 194 X. Cross-Border Co-operation in Hydropower Development 200 Y. Environmental and Social Safeguards 201 Z. Cost Analysis 203 143 ADB TA 8356-MYA Myanmar Energy Master Plan Final Report ANNEXES ANNEX 1 Myanmar Gas Pipelines ANNEX 2 JICA Gas Supply and Demand Forecasts ANNEX 3 Coal Resource Estimates ANNEX 4 Chemical Composition of Coal Deposits ANNEX 5 Coal Production by Mine ANNEX 6 Roles and Responsibilities on Renewable Energy in Myanmar ANNEX 7 Annual Monthly Average Radiation Incident On Equator-Pointed Surface ANNEX 8 Average Monthly Radiation on Horizontal Surface ANNEX 9 Monthly Average Wind Speed at 50 m Above Surface of Earth ANNEX 10 Biogas Energy Projects in Myanmar ANNEX 11 Biomass Gasification Projects for Rice Husk and Woodchips in Myanmar ANNEX 12 Oil Content of Different Land Races of Jatropha Curcas ANNEX 13 Jatropha Production in Myanmar in 2010 – 2011 ANNEX 14 Basin and Coastal Monthly Rainfalls in Myanmar ANNEX 15 Hydropower Resources in Myanmar 144 ADB TA 8356-MYA Myanmar Energy Master Plan Final Report FOREWORD 1. Under the Technical Assistance (TA) package 8356 for Institutional Strengthening of the National Energy Management Committee (NEMC) in Energy Policy and Planning, a team of international consultants and national consultants (the Consultant) have been engaged by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Ministry of Energy (MOE) to prepare a 20-year Energy Master Plan (EMP) for Myanmar, including energy demand forecasts, an assessment of energy supply options, determination of investment requirements, and recommending supporting legal and institutional arrangements to support the EMP. 2. A number of discussion papers were issued as the Interim Report of the TA, which focused on taking a stock of Myanmar’s energy demand and how it is currently satisfied. Models were created to calibrate the demand development with the past and present drivers of the energy use in various sectors. Reports were issued for rural households and their lighting and cooking needs, and the transport sectors. Simultaneously, the Consultant has developed assumptions on long-term socioeconomic and demographic development in Myanmar and consequent top-down forecasts consistent with the bottom-up demand analysis. Scenarios for future energy demand are linked to forecast production of goods and services (GDP), demographics and regional development, lifestyle changes and increasing incomes and mobility. 3. The next stage in the planning exercise is to examine the current energy supply system in Myanmar. This report describes the primary energy basis on which the future energy supply can be built in Myanmar. It summarizes the information available on the available primary energy resources in the country and identifies constraints with respect of their utilization. Constraints may include issues such as how much of the available resources have already been allocated for other purposes, for example to which extent natural gas or hydropower capacity is available for domestic needs after existing commitments to supply energy for exports are fulfilled; what is the social and environmental cost, and public acceptance of harnessing hydropower resources; or whether or not domestic coal is suitable for large scale thermal power generation given its quality and location of mines. 4. Part II of this report covers natural gas resources; Part III focuses on coal related issues; Part IV is about renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, biomass / biogas and biofuel; and Part V discusses hydropower potential. 145 ADB TA 8356-MYA Myanmar Energy Master Plan Final Report I. OIL A. Myanmar’s Oil Resources 5. Globally, the Union of Myanmar does not have significant oil oil resources and production is relatively small. According to Myanmar’s Ministry of Energy (MoE), the country’s proven oil reserves (Offshore and Onshore) are 459 million barrels (mmbbl). In the past few years Myanmar has produced approximately 20,000 barrels of oil per day (BOPD); clearly Myanmar’s proven oil reserves provide the possibility for a significant increase in oil production. 6. The domestic demand for refined petroleum based transportation fuels has evidenced strong growth due to growing passenger and freight services. In the last few years Myanmar’s oil production has accounted for only 45% of the oil products consumed in Myanmar, with the balance of consumption provided by imports. 7. Myanmar has 10 operating onshore oil fields that are all located in the middle of the country close to the rivers of Ayeyarwady and Chindwin. The approximate total crude
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