insects Article Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai’i Jesse A. Tabor 1,2 and Jonathan B. Koch 3,4,* 1 Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, University of Hawai’i, 200 W. Kawili¯ Street, Hilo, HI 96720, USA;
[email protected] 2 Department of Biology, Utah State University, 5305 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322, USA 3 Tropical Conservation Biology & Environmental Science Graduate Program, University of Hawai’i, Hilo, 200 W. Kawili¯ Street, Hilo, HI 96720, USA 4 Pollinating Insect—Biology, Management, and Systematics Research Unit, U.S. Department of Agriculture—Agricultural Research Service, 1410 N. 800 E., Logan, UT 84341, USA * Correspondence:
[email protected] Simple Summary: Climate change exacerbates the threat of biological invasions by increasing climatically suitable regions for species to invade outside of their native range. Island ecosystems may be particularly sensitive to the synergistic effects of climate change and biological invasions. In Hawai’i there are 21 non-native bees that have the capacity to spread pathogens and compete for resources with native bees. We performed an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) for eight non-native bee species (Hymenoptera: Anthophila) in Hawai’i to predict climatically suitable niches across current and future climate scenarios. We found a significant difference in habitat suitability between SDMs that were constructed with specimen records from their native and non- native (Hawai’i) range. Although SDMs predict expansion of suitable habitat into higher elevations under 2070 climate scenarios, species-rich areas are predicted to stay below 500 m elevation.