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Investment Services Report Minneapolis-St Research & Forecast Report > INVESTMENT SERVICES REPORT MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL | YEAR END 2018 STATE OF THE MSP MARKET & 2019 OUTLOOK Strong 2018 leads to even stronger 2019 Looking back at 2018, it was a great year for commercial real estate estate product type for the past several years and we don’t in Minneapolis-St. Paul. There were some major capital market sales foresee this trend slowing down. in all product types across the metro with pricing and competition » Office product will continue to trade at a steady pace with remaining as fierce as ever. This Investment Services Report, investors favoring urban assets and updated, well-located published annually by the Colliers International | Minneapolis-St. suburban assets. Paul office, is designed to track notable transactions and provide thoughtful reflection on the the previous year, while also looking to » Retail product will continue to evolve in the market, with the future of our industry into 2019. the stable economy in the Twin Cities continuing to inspire interest in retail investment. We are looking to this new year with optimism knowing that over » Multifamily product deliveries will slow their frantic pace and the past decade the Twin Cities have become a true “18-Hour City,” assets of all classes will continue to see investment movement. with services, amenities and job opportunities similar to those in the largest markets. In addition, Minneapolis-St. Paul continues We at Colliers International | Minneapolis-St. Paul are looking to attract top talent for our diverse industry base and consistently forward to a bright 2019 and are excited to help our clients and ranks highly as a prime location to live, work and play. partners achieve their capital investment goals to make this one of the best years yet! We believe Minneapolis-St. Paul will continue to see momentum in our marketplace for the coming year, notwithstanding some challenges, but with overall fundamentals that are very strong WILLIAM WARDWELL and local and national demand for all investment product types EVP, Managing Director-Brokerage remaining steady. Colliers MSP Key 2019 Local Investment Trends 952 897 7828 [email protected] » Industrial has been the best performing commercial real INSIGHT EXPERT STATE OF THE CURRENT DEBT MARKET A glimpse into 2019 debt and equity finance Given the current drop in treasuries, commercial real estate investors in the U.S. are feeling very confident. This is considering U.S. 10-YEAR U.S.TREASURY 10 Year Treasury Closing ValueCLOSING VALUE* the fourth interest rate hike in 2018. The outlook for cap rates in 3.3 3.2 2019 remains on a high note. The debt and equity markets for 3.1 this year are highly fluid. Financeable product types are good 3 in the retail, office and multifamily markets, and strong in the 2.9 2.8 industrial sector. There has been a flight to quality out of the 2.7 stock market starting in the fourth quarter of 2018. This should 2.6 further compress the bond and treasury markets. Because of this, 2.5 May July April June March August investors seeking yield will jump more heavily into the commercial October January Febuary December November real estate market. September *source: cnbc.com Life companies will probably increase their projections in 2019. CMBS is alive and well. With 10 year swaps, the index eased back MICHAEL STROBER down to the 275 range and rates have come way in. Even with Executive Managing Director spreads at 190-220, we are still looking at 4.5-4.95 pricing. Life Capital Markets | USA company spreads are averaging 130-150 for all product types. This puts pricing back down to the 4% level. 813 559 7005 [email protected] 2019 is slated to be an exciting year in commercial real estate. INSIGHT EXPERT Minneapolis-St. Paul Investment Services Report | Year End 2018 | Colliers International STATE OF THE U.S. MARKET & 2019 OUTLOOK The long economic expansion looks to slow, property markets will follow Since the Great Recession officially ended in June of 2009, our U.S. property markets have clearly benefited from the late cycle economy has recorded more than 110 consecutive months of fiscal stimulus that fostered this year’s strong economy. positive growth–the second longest in our nation’s history, and Fundamentals in all sectors are as strong or stronger than they soon to become the longest, if (as seems most likely) we can were at the peak of the last cycle, and vacancy rates are at their sustain the growth into next summer. lowest points in at least a decade. Key Takeaways We’ve also enjoyed 97 straight months of job growth, already the longest in our history. Indeed, many young adults have » Despite current strength in economic drivers, slower known nothing but an improving economy and favorable job economic and job growth will soon begin to challenge prospects for the entirety of their professional careers. property fundamentals. » Tapering global growth, fading fiscal stimulus and rising These conditions have supported a long bull run in financial interest rates are combining to slow our economy, markets generally, but especially in property markets. We while escalating trade tensions represent a significant reported last year that occupancy rates and rents for most downside risk. Expect a material slowdown (but not property types, in most markets, are above their long-term necessarily a recession) by mid-2020. averages and at or near their high points in this cycle; conditions have generally improved further in the 12 months since. » The industrial sector will continue to be the top performing property type, and the sector most favored by investors. But if the economic skies are still mostly sunny, there are Much of its gains have come at the expense of the gathering clouds on the horizon: rising inflation and interest beleaguered retail sector, where the shakeout is still far from rates, slowing global growth and a flattening yield curve, over, despite recent successes in omnichannel retailing. among other end-of-cycle signals. And there are clear signs that the best years of this property cycle are now behind us. » The multifamily sector’s strong demand shook off the Investment returns are barely half their 2015 level. supply challenges of the past couple of years. It will perform relatively well during a downturn due to structural changes Almost everything seems to be going well with the U.S. and cyclical dynamics favoring renting over homebuying. economy: households are consuming, businesses are investing, manufacturers are producing and the government » Supply and demand dynamics in the office sector have is spending. Surveys of both consumers and business leaders remained broadly balanced. This notoriously cyclical sector remain near multi-decade highs, which translates into stronger should perform relatively well in the next downturn, as consumer spending and business investment. A pickup in construction has been moderate and the new coworking government spending is also helping, fueled by the January segment may provide a downside buffer. 2018 Bipartisan Budget Act—government contributions to GDP » Though property markets peaked for this cycle in 2015, growth this quarter were the strongest since early 2016. leasing and sales transaction activity remain robust and pricing firm. Both may slow sharply in the next two Add it all up and the U.S. economy is on track this year to record years, along with price appreciation and rent growth. its strongest performance of this cycle. But below the surface, signs are emerging that after almost a decade of uninterrupted, » Tenants and investors alike should adopt more if fitful growth, a slowdown is starting to take hold. Business defensive strategies in advance of the slowdown. investment is slowing in response to downshifting global growth, Tenants will want to seek out flexible terms, while tensions with our trading partners are escalating and interest rates landlords look to shed underperforming assets. are trending up, making borrowing more expensive and riskier. Rising interest rates are also constraining the housing market. Often early indicators, home sales and home price appreciation ANDREW NELSON are cooling—potentially signaling an end to this economic cycle. Chief Economist Colliers International | USA Nonetheless, today’s economic conditions remain robust and 415 288 7864 supportive of strong property fundamentals, with vigorous job [email protected] growth given the lowest rate of unemployment in 50 years. INSIGHT EXPERT Minneapolis-St. Paul Investment Services Report | Year End 2018 | Colliers International INVESTMENT SERVICES TEAMS Our experts in industrial, office, retail and multifamily investment services BOB POUNDS AMY SENN Senior Vice President Vice President 952 897 7753 952 897 7833 [email protected] [email protected] TIM PRINSEN LORI POUNDS CCIM Senior Vice President Senior Real Estate Analyst 952 897 7748 952 897 7820 [email protected] [email protected] MARK KOLSRUD SIOR TED BICKEL Senior Vice President Senior Vice President 952 897 7790 952 837 3097 [email protected] [email protected] DAVID BERGLUND JEFF BUDISH Senior Vice President Vice President 952 897 7789 952 897 7755 [email protected] [email protected] COLIN RYAN TED GONSIOR Senior Vice President Senior Vice President 952 837 3093 952 897 7744 [email protected] [email protected] PIA ROBERTSON CCIM BRADY DEVORE Senior Real Estate Analyst Associate 952 837 3080 952 374 5825 [email protected] [email protected] PETE CARBONNEAU LAUREN PANZER Financial Analyst Real Estate Analyst 952 374 5860 952 837 3018 [email protected] [email protected] Minneapolis-St. Paul Investment Services Report | Year End 2018 | Colliers International Research & Forecast Report > INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT SERVICES MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL | YEAR END 2018 U.S. NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL TRENDS Industrial sector extends its outperformance into fourth consecutive year » The industrial market is benefiting from a confluence U.S.
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