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Home , Ehud Olmert, Gilead, Gilead Sher, Jordan Valley, Mahmoud Abbas, The Clinton Parameters

REPORT 05.11.20 Is There a Practical Roadmap for Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” Vision?

Gilead Sher, Isaac and Mildred Brochstein Fellow in Peace and Security in Honor of Daniel Cohen, Intern, Center for the Middle East

concessions for Palestinian sovereignty over 1. INTRODUCTION any part of the or the , As a potential “Deal of the Century,” eliciting further Palestinian scorn for the plan. President ’s “Peace to Both stipulations disregard carefully crafted Prosperity” plan does not live up to its compromises from former negotiations—the name. It falls well short of an ultimate Oslo process, Camp , and Annapolis— deal that will break the Israeli-Palestinian which offered detailed sovereignty-sharing gridlock and equitably resolve the conflict. proposals and special security arrangements. It is more accurately a continuation of Even worse, while the Trump plan licenses previous interim agreements—essentially, to initiate annexation without any an Oslo C—but with a significant departure preconditions, Palestinian statehood from past negotiation understandings.1 is conditioned upon a compilation of While the Trump plan The truly innovative components of the unreasonable and impractical thresholds— licenses Israel to initiate deal bend unabashedly toward Israeli all but assuring Palestinian failure. desires, without compensatory elements It is worth noting that while the plan annexation without for Palestinian aspirations. The distortion of has not received strong Arab support, any preconditions, internal balances previously established in neither has it been rejected as strongly Palestinian statehood other U.S. frameworks seems detrimental to as the might wish. The Arab is conditioned upon League has dismissed the peace plan as promoting peace or regional security. a compilation of Previous negotiations have recognized insufficient for Palestinian independence;3 a distinction between the main Jewish nevertheless, , , , unreasonable and settlement blocs near the pre-1967 Green and the have all issued impractical thresholds— Line and more isolated Jewish settlements statements tepidly welcoming Trump’s all but assuring proposal and calling for negotiations.4 In the in the heart of the , but Trump’s Palestinian failure. plan allows for Israeli annexation of all past, a plan like this would have received Jewish settlements.2 Though the Clinton resounding criticism from all Arab parties. Parameters recognized the significance Today, with shifting Middle East alliances and of the Valley to Israeli security and threats—i.e., —moderate Sunni states are would have created a six-year plan for concerned with displeasing Trump and are Israeli withdrawal from it, Trump’s plan increasingly open to establishing relations offers Israel political sovereignty over the with Israel.5 . At the very least, Trump’s plan serves The plan envisions Israeli control of as a harsh reminder to the Palestinians that the Palestinian state’s airspace, , and time is not in their favor. Yet, this should electromagnetic spectrum, as well as all not deceive Israelis into thinking time is on borders and crossing points. There are also no their side. The Trump plan could harden the Israeli center-right to tolerate fewer BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20

compromises in future negotiations, enter year timeline for its implementation, yet the a new potential spoiler into the Israeli- potential sequencing of the plan—first Israeli Palestinian peace process, and lead Israel annexation, then the rest, if at all—negates down a perilous path to international the possibility of a functional process. demonization and social upheaval. The introduction of the grand deal Though it is unfortunate for both sides, has been marred from the start by a lack the Trump plan will shape the negotiation of cohesion on the part of the Trump process for years to come—regardless of administration regarding the timeframe for the results of the U.S. 2020 presidential Israeli annexation of West Bank territory. The Trump plan will elections. It will serve as a point of reference Immediately after the press conference in in future negotiations for those strongly in Washington announcing the deal, Benjamin serve as a point of favor of it and those staunchly opposed, Netanyahu indicated that the reference in future just as many other plans in the wastebasket would draft an annexation proposal within negotiations for those of history have continued to influence the the week, with full support from the White strongly in favor of it peace process. Since all parties involved House.6 Two days later, , and those staunchly will undoubtedly bear the consequences Trump’s son-in-law and one of the creators of the Peace to Prosperity plan, it is worth of the Peace to Prosperity vision, said the opposed, just as examining the implementation issues and Trump administration would prefer Israel many other plans in the the proposed framework, as well as how wait until after the March elections to annex wastebasket of history Israelis, Palestinians, and Arab states can territory, citing a months-long process of 7 have continued to navigate the negotiation process. required technical work on the vision’s map. Of course, the Covid-19 pandemic has Now, the target date for annexation agreed influence the placed many issues on hold by the Netanyahu-Gantz 2020 coalition peace process. as the world copes with the health crisis. matches the political campaigning of Trump This will not erase the Israeli-Palestinian and Netanyahu. The way is open to proceed. conflict, nor the problems of the Trump plan. According to a recent INSS Insight, Rather, once the pandemic has subsided, however, Israel must prepare for the the geopolitical challenges facing the Middle repercussions of annexation under a Biden East will resurface, amplified. Then, perhaps administration: “The former Vice President all parties involved can utilize the post- stated in August 2019 that ‘we have to Covid-19 years to attempt resolving—or put pressure constantly on the Israelis to at least subduing—issues critical to the move to a two-state solution.’ Yet the resolution of the conflict. coalition agreement between and Blue and White, which is the foundation for the new Israeli government, permits 2. ANNEXATION, IMPLEMENTATION, Netanyahu to raise the issue of annexing AND NEGOTIATION NON-STARTERS or extending Israeli law to sections of the West Bank as of July 1, 2020. Because 2.1. Sequencing and Deriving Annexation such steps are viewed by Washington’s Given the total absence of Palestinian foreign policy establishment as disrupting involvement in planning and implementing or even preventing progress toward a two- the deal, the current deal has no way of state solution, any unilateral annexation serving as is as a driver to resolving the initiatives in the West Bank by Israel under conflict. Instead, it will further blur the the auspices of Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ borders between two states, as the Israeli (before or during Biden’s tenure) would right-wing looks to ensure a continued aggravate tensions with a future Biden presence in and . administration.”8 Furthermore, the deal may give Israel a Netanyahu and others have continued green light to initiate unilateral annexation— to trumpet the security strength of the plan, or accomplish its equivalent by “extending particularly due to the strategic necessity of Israeli law”—over Jewish settlements in the the Jordan Valley.9,10 However, in previous West Bank and the Jordan Valley, starting negotiations Israel has not asked for a July 1, 2020. Trump’s plan envisions a four- sovereign border in the Jordan Valley, but 2 IS THERE A PRACTICAL ROADMAP FOR TRUMP’S “PEACE TO PROSPERITY” VISION?

merely an adequate security presence and allocated Palestinian sovereignty over Arab complementary arrangements with Israeli neighborhoods and Israeli sovereignty over intelligence capabilities.11 Security experts Jewish neighborhoods. These partitioned agree that a gradual withdrawal from the Palestinian neighborhoods were to be Valley, perhaps with American or UN forces declared the Palestinian capital. The Old stationed as well, can provide Israel with City would have an international status and the necessary intelligence and security to would be governed by five countries: Israel, the east.12 , Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Rather than advancing a reckless and . irreversible annexation project detrimental Palestinian Authority President to a two-state-for two-people solution, was outraged by the Trump Israel and the U.S. should clarify and administration’s treatment of , re-sequence the negotiations under the declaring “I will not have it recorded in my plan. They must commit to the deal as a history that I have sold Jerusalem.”16 The starting point, not an endpoint. From the is a grave concern for outset, Trump and Netanyahu must eschew Muslims around the world, and Palestinian unilateral action in favor of multilateral leaders are beholden to their Palestinian good-faith negotiations. This is necessary constituency and their Arab allies. Abbas but not sufficient for advancing negotiations, cannot surrender a capital in holy Jerusalem as the deal contains significant non-starters (Al-Quds), and any sensible plan must regarding Jerusalem, Palestinian sovereignty, recognize the utmost importance of borders, and water rights. Palestinian sovereignty in at least the Muslim Quarter of the Old City. Such recognition was 2.2. Jerusalem reflected in both the December 2000 Clinton Trump’s plan calls for Jerusalem to parameters and the 2008 Olmert proposal. remain the undivided capital of Israel and establishes a Palestinian capital comprising 2.3. Sovereignty and Borders , Kafr Aqab, and .13 The The proposed map of the “Deal of the neighborhoods that would become the Century” offers Palestinians a piecemeal Rather than advancing a Palestinian capital are only nominally state and renders statehood moot by reckless and irreversible included in Jerusalem, and leave out what proffering Palestinian autonomy without annexation project is truly important to the Palestinians: the sovereign self-rule. Trump’s plan gives Old City and the Temple Mount. The Trump Israel “overriding security responsibility detrimental to a two- administration has boldly proclaimed that over the ,” which includes state-for two-people Israel’s current capital in Jerusalem will responsibility for all international crossings solution, Israel and remain, while deceptively claiming to offer into Palestine and control of the state’s the U.S. should clarify the Palestinians a capital in .14 airspace and electromagnetic spectrum.17 Rather, the neighborhoods selected to be Israeli control of Palestinian borders and re-sequence the the Palestinian capital were chosen because and airspace undermines the essence negotiations under they lie to the east of the security barrier. of Palestinian sovereignty, and offers the plan. This is a far cry from the Palestinian Palestinians little more than they already capital envisioned in previous U.S. proposals. have: autonomy and self-governance Under , the Christian without ultimate jurisdiction. This and Muslim Quarters of the Old City would contravenes the Palestinian state envisioned be under Palestinian sovereignty, and in the Clinton Parameters, which would have the Temple Mount would be partitioned retained sovereignty over its airspace with vertically to provide Palestinian sovereignty special security considerations for Israel. over Al-Aqsa and the Dome of the Rock The Trump plan proposes a Palestinian and Israeli sovereignty over the Western state fully encircled within the sovereign Wall.15 At the 2008 Annapolis talks between , including the Jordan Valley. and Mahmoud Abbas, a Moreover, Jewish enclaves deep within proposed partition of Jerusalem would have Palestinian territory would be connected to 3 BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20

Israel via complex roadways that compromise Palestinians will relinquish natural water the security of Israel and the territorial resources and rely solely on desalination and contiguity of Palestine. In contrast, the other technologies. Water was one of the Clinton Parameters proposed a Palestinian seven pillars of the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace state on 94%-96% of the West Bank; the agreement and an essential component the possibility of a special arrangement on up 1995 Oslo II Accords.24 However, the water to 2% more of West Bank territory; and commitments included in Oslo were never additional land near Gaza earmarked for a effectuated as part of a permanent status Palestinian state. The West Bank territory agreement. annexed to Israel would have allowed Today, Israel controls approximately Israel to encompass 80% of settlements. 80% of water reserves in West Bank aquifers, The Jordan Valley would be sovereign and until 2017, all Palestinian water projects Palestinian territory, but Israel would be able required approval by the Israeli-Palestinian to maintain a military presence there for up Joint Water Committee (JWC).25 In 2017, to six years.18 Instead, Trump’s approach Israel and the Palestinian Authority signed The proposed map ensures an untenable level of daily friction an agreement giving the PA autonomy over adds 1,400 kilometers by entrenching the Israeli security apparatus water and sewage projects in Areas A and B, around a future Palestine, and within it, to and Palestinian sections of .26 Despite to Israel’s borders. secure Israeli enclaves. this progress, water sharing remains a How will all these The conceptual map19 of the Trump fundamental issue for the Palestinians. Israeli borders be overseen plan creates a whole host of uncertainties sovereignty over the Jordan Valley would only in a secure and for Israeli security.20 Will the borders exacerbate the dispute over water access between Israel and a future Palestine have in the basin. The Economic comprehensive free passage? If so, how will Israel maintain Framework of the Peace to Prosperity plan manner? border security, and if not, what will Israel claims to invest in the Palestinian economy do to prevent unsanctioned crossings? but addressing fundamental The proposed map adds 1,400 kilometers is part of that endeavor, especially as the to Israel’s borders, not only including the environmental threats of climate change Jordan Valley borders to the east (with continue to rise. Jordan) and the west (with Palestine), but also accounting for the area offered to the Palestinians which will create a 3. WHAT SHOULD ISRAEL DO AND narrow Israeli corridor between Egypt and NOT DO? Palestine.21 How will all these borders be 3.1. Advancing with Caution: No Unilateral overseen in a secure and comprehensive Annexation manner? Furthermore, the constant friction created by settlements and the Israel sees the “Deal of the Century” as corresponding military presence drains a historic opportunity to actualize many Israeli security resources and reduces political and security ambitions: erasing preparedness on other fronts.22 pre-1967 borders as the core reference point for future sovereign borders between 2.4. Water two nation states, ensuring the continued presence of Jewish settlement communities Another serious omission in the deal is throughout the West Bank, and securing reflected in the minimal discussion regarding the Jordan Valley as a permanent, eastern Palestinian water rights. Access to water is a border. With Trump’s offer on the table, critical issue to establishing a self-sufficient these goals may be accomplished with and prosperous nation, especially in the strong support from the White House arid Middle East . Yet the Trump deal and U.S. protection from international offers a meager paragraph regarding water- reprisals. Nevertheless, the consequences of sharing agreements, promising “mutual annexation will be swift and dangerous, and water rights” through “shared aquifers” and Israeli leadership would be wise to advance “investing in desalination and other emerging 23 with extreme caution. 4 technologies.” It is faulty to believe that IS THERE A PRACTICAL ROADMAP FOR TRUMP’S “PEACE TO PROSPERITY” VISION?

Annexation of Jewish settlements or the Gantz and separated, and Gantz Jordan Valley would be a nearly irreversible became Knesset speaker as a transitional action that could lead to international step toward establishing an emergency demonization and delegitimization, the unity government with Netanyahu’s Likud.32 collapse of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty, At the point in time this piece is written, and deterioration of security cooperation Gantz will take over the premiership from with the Palestinian Authority—or Netanyahu in September 2021, but the dissolution of the PA altogether.27,28 It chance of altering Israel’s course of action would continue and accelerate the slide seems to have faded. toward a single state between the Jordan Regardless of the governing coalition, River and the , deepen the Israel should pursue practical and forward- fractures of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, thinking objectives. Israel must avoid and escalate regional instability. In short, irreversible actions and preserve the unilateral Israeli annexation is detrimental to conditions for a viable two-state solution. the fundamental vision of Israel as a Jewish, The map envisioned in the Trump plan democratic, and moral state and undermines creates long, problematic borders and Palestinian self-determination in a viable, creates friction by further entangling mixed peaceful state. populations. The has also expressed Instead, the way forward requires strong opposition to the Peace to Prosperity gradual disengagement of Israelis and plan,29 while PA Prime Minister Mohammad Palestinians within a framework that Shtayyeh and President Abbas have called promotes a reality of two nation-states on the EU to recognize the State of Palestine and regional prosperity. As part of such a to counter Israeli annexation schemes.30 framework, Israel should initiate small- Regardless of the There is growing traction for European scale, ground-up activities that rebuild governing coalition, recognition of Palestine despite Israeli trust between parties. For example, the Israel must avoid 33 criticism, and unilateral annexation could Israel- truce enacted shortly before irreversible actions and spark action.31 Wall-to-wall European the unveiling of the “Deal of the Century” recognition of a Palestinian state, outside offered one instance of hope for easing preserve the conditions the framework of a negotiated agreement, restrictions and creating goodwill. for a viable two-state would be a major boon to Palestinian Additionally, showing flexibility in solution. The map leverage. It would diminish the role of the rejecting unnecessary and contentious envisioned in the Trump U.S. as the principal “honest broker” and components of the Trump deal will open could drive subsequent UN recognition of new avenues. The deal “contemplates the plan creates long, Palestine. Thus, Israel must critically assess possibility”34 of transferring the territory problematic borders next steps to avoid major political and inhabited by 10 Arab communities, known and creates friction diplomatic blows. as the Arab , from Israel to a by further entangling future Palestinian state. Transferring Arab 3.2. Negotiation Opportunities and populations has been rejected as racist and mixed populations. Unofficial Contacts divisive,35 and both Gantz and Netanyahu 36 37 After numerous rounds of Israeli elections, have disavowed the idea. , The Arab there remained an unlikely possibility that Triangle Transfer is “subject to the agreement 38 a narrow coalition in the Israeli Knesset, of both parties,” and Israeli negotiators led by of the Blue and White should make clear they unequivocally party, could offer a strategic opportunity denounce this problematic proposal. to navigate the “Deal of the Century” with Most importantly, an essential way to caution. Perhaps, such a coalition could make progress is through off-the-record, have nudged Israel’s stances on the issues backchannel negotiations. There of course of borders, security, and Jerusalem back needs to be a primary, visible track of toward the norms established in previous negotiations as well, and Israel should rounds of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. work to bring the Palestinians back to the That opportunity has passed, however, negotiating table publicly. Nevertheless, the substantive work of reconciling differences after Blue and White coalition leaders Benny 5 BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20

between the parties—at present, there are any pathway to negotiations, the Trump huge gaps on practically all core issues—and administration may license Israeli West Bank creating reasonable consensus within the annexation and end the possibility for two respective societies must be accomplished states altogether.41 in secret negotiations. Even considering By Palestinian calculations, any unyielding Palestinian rejectionism, Israel incremental improvements that could be must keep an open line of direct and indirect made from negotiating under the auspices communication with the Palestinians of the Trump administration will ultimately in order to share information and test strip away from the core of the Palestinian the waters, away from the public eye. vision. Yet as the Palestinians have Such a step would benefit both sides and continued to prioritize their ideal vision for begin to bridge the gap between conflict statehood over incremental changes on the management and conflict resolution. ground, Israel has engineered a process of gradual de facto annexation, which may soon become de jure. At this moment, only Formalizing the role 4. THE PALESTINIAN TRACK Palestinian engagement can stave off the of the Arab quartet— direst consequences of the Trump plan. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi 4.1. From 1,000 “No’s” to “Yes, But” However, Palestinian involvement Arabia, and the UAE— Abbas and the Palestinians have could take many forms, three of which categorically rejected Trump’s proposal can offer stability to are discussed herein. Instead of rejecting with “1,000 ‘no’s,” calling it the “slap of the the Trump plan outright, the Palestinians an eventual rocky century.”39 Abbas has refused to discuss the could find benefits in saying “yes, but”— negotiation process and plan with Netanyahu or Trump, as it sharply yes, we want a negotiation process for incentivize both Israelis diverges from negotiated understandings two states, but we refuse to entertain the and Palestinians. of pre-1967 borders, Jerusalem, and most outrageous proposals of this plan. Or, Palestinian sovereignty. In February 2020, Palestinians could actively reject the Trump Abbas convened the to deal but publicly call for talks on how to unanimously reject the plan, increasing advance a mutually beneficial peace process. pan-Arab pressure on moderate Arab states They could endeavor to establish terms that supported the Trump plan as a basis for of reference and parameters for further negotiations. However, Palestinian eulogies negotiations while partnering those with proclaiming the deal “dead on arrival”40 will clear redlines. Perhaps one step further, the not make it so: Trump’s plan will remain a Palestinians could put forth a new, alternative point of reference in future talks, especially plan of their own—one that goes beyond the if Trump wins re-election. limited confines of the For Palestinian leadership, responding in and offers a measured way forward. any manner other than flat rejection could Realistically, the Palestinians cannot irreparably harm their standing in the eyes of and will not act until after November 2020, political allies and the Palestinian public. From or perhaps January 2021. Still, Palestinian the Palestinian perspective, any engagement political leadership must begin drafting with Trump or Netanyahu is tacit acceptance ideas and publicly signaling a cohesive way of the absurd proposals outlined in the forward that can counter momentum for the Trump plan and its complete detachment Trump plan. Waiting for an ideal proposal on from historical context or international behalf of the current U.S. administration is consensus. There is also the fear that Trump not an option. will twist any Palestinian participation into a If Trump is re-elected, Palestinian PR boon. Yet, continuing the path of eternal leaders must propose a well-crafted rejectionism jeopardizes their national response that can capture the support of objective to reaching Palestinian statehood. Palestinians and moderate Israelis and avert The Palestinians severed communication the current political risks of Palestinian with the White House in 2017, and as a result leadership associating with Israel and the they were left out of the process entirely. If U.S. A backchannel could help put together the Palestinian Authority continues to thwart such a response more comfortably. It 6 IS THERE A PRACTICAL ROADMAP FOR TRUMP’S “PEACE TO PROSPERITY” VISION?

provides a way to devise a substantial step in multilateral conflict resolution. counterproposal while also staving off Given numerous points of reference for internal Palestinian criticism. negotiations—including the Camp David Summit, the Annapolis talks, the Arab Peace 4.2. Backchannel Negotiations Initiative, and, of course, the Trump plan— Even if Palestinians continue to demand that Arab states can still encourage a negotiation the Peace to Prosperity plan be scrapped process as a basis for reaching many stated in its entirety, this should not preclude the objectives of the API. possibility of quiet, backchannel discussions According to one analysis, the Trump with all parties concerned: Israel, the United plan has caused a rift between Jordan and States, the Europeans, and Arab states. Saudi Arabia due to Saudi Arabia’s efforts 42 Such tracks are an opportunity for the to enhance its influence in Jerusalem. If Trump is re-elected, Palestinians to outline their positions on Trump’s strong relationship with Saudi Crown Prince may Palestinian leaders what may be possible, without concerns of must propose a well- normalizing the Trump plan. increase Jordanian fears of a declining role in Perhaps nothing in the immediate the peace process and push Jordan to seek crafted response future offers hope of a peace agreement, new avenues for reasserting its presence that can capture the but secret talks are necessary to build the in the political arena. Increased Jordanian- support of Palestinians Saudi tension will only diminish Trump’s infrastructure for future negotiations—or and moderate Israelis at least to preserve the conditions for leverage in rallying Arab contributions. an eventual two-state-for-two-people Proactive participation of Arab states and avert the current outcome. The Palestinians can counter can incentivize Israelis and Palestinians political risks of the Trump plan by releasing an alternate to contemplate the benefits of a viable Palestinian leadership negotiation track. In turn, the international roadmap, and a backchannel will strengthen associating with Israel its effectiveness. They can utilize off- community can facilitate Arab inclusion the-record discussions to formulate a with a package of incentives for all parties and the U.S. substantive peace plan that cannot be involved. The Trump administration’s rejected on the spot by Israel and the U.S. economic plan discussed in and Since a secret communication channel other regional economic plans can play a would be deniable, Palestinian leadership valuable role in the process, though they can avoid political blowback from their must be coordinated with a functional constituency, contain Israeli expansion on political track. An invested international the ground, and offer a forceful rejoinder to community, including the international Trump’s hollow political exploitation. quartet of the U.S., , the EU, and the UN, can help craft a package of incentives that encourages good-faith action and 5. THE ARAB TRACK: A KEY thwarts bad actors.

5.1. Support and Incentives 5.2. The Arab Quartet Incorporating a track of Israeli negotiations Formalizing the role of the Arab quartet— with moderate Arab states is critical to the Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United peace process for a multitude of reasons. Arab Emirates—can offer stability to an Not only can Arab states provide important eventual rocky negotiation process and infrastructure and encouragement to Israeli- incentivize both Israelis and Palestinians.43 Palestinian negotiations, but Israeli-Arab With the support of Saudi Arabia and the normalization is a key component of any UAE, Egypt has attempted to facilitate the roadmap to regional peace. While some Arab Palestinian reconciliation process between states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have and Hamas in an effort to neutralize remained open to the possibility of utilizing Hamas’s role as a persistent spoiler.44 the Trump plan as a basis for negotiations, Meanwhile, the quartet can persuade Israel the plan has been roundly criticized as to consider the diplomatic and economic insufficient. Encouraging Arab states benefits of keeping the Arab Peace to engage in the process is a necessary Initiative in mind. 7 BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20

Even if the role of the Arab quartet and problematic borders could lead to a remains informal, the EU has considered in viral outbreak that overwhelms Israeli and the past involving Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Palestinian health systems, an outcome that Egypt more closely in high-level meetings.45 is increasingly likely without bilateral civil The Arab nations comprising the quartet and security coordination. Now more than occupy a unique position to normalize ever, Israeli and Palestinian leaders must difficult-to-swallow compromises and demonstrate great caution and strong vision maintain flexibility on all sides. Of course, to proceed carefully along the precarious strengthening the role of the quartet can path that lies ahead. also counter Iranian efforts for regional hegemony and diminish Iran’s influence along the Persian crescent. The quartet ENDNOTES is an invaluable resource to both the U.S. and Israel, and a greater international 1. Sher, “Let’s Call Trump’s Plan effort should commence to involve them in What It Is: Oslo C,” Forward, January 29, brokering a deal. 2020, https://forward.com/opinion/439134/ lets-call-trumps-plan-what-it-is-oslo-c/. 2. Gilead Sher, “Comparing the ‘Deal of CONCLUSION the Century’ with Previous Plans,” Institute for National Security Studies, February 2, Though Trump’s Deal of the Century 2020, https://www.inss.org.il/publication/ abandons the parameters of previous trump-deal-comparative-review/. Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and lacks 3. “Arab League Rejects Trump’s coherent policy, the plan will continue to Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan,” Deutsche sit on the table for years to come. In as Welle, February 1, 2020. https://p.dw.com/ much as this deal is meant to be a bilaterally p/3X8HD. implemented plan for peace, it will fail 4. Omri Nahmias, “Saudi Arabia, Egypt, without significant Israeli concessions, Qatar, UAE Welcome ,” complete re-sequencing, and resourceful Jerusalem Post, January 29, 2020, https:// Palestinian initiative. Netanyahu and www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Saudi-Arabia- many on the Israeli Right see the plan Egypt-Qatar-UAE-welcome-Trump-peace- as a golden opportunity to obtain long- plan-615752. awaited territorial and security objectives 5. David May and Varsha Koduvayur, with the weight of U.S. support thwarting “Trump's Peace Plan and the Gulf Arab international opposition. Yet, Israel must not States’ Reaction,” The Hill, February 12, abide by foreign interference in decisions 2020, https://thehill.com/opinion/ crucial to national security and domestic international/482737-trumps-peace-plan- affairs, from allies or enemies alike. and-the-gulf-arab-states-reaction. West Bank annexation threatens a 6. Noa Landau, “Netanyahu: First dangerous Israeli decline into a disastrous Phase of Annexation to be Brought Before reality of one state, which will either Government on Sunday,” , January comprise a non-Jewish majority or 29, 2020, https://www.haaretz.com/israel- will be non-democratic and lacking news/.premium-netanyahu-first-phase- equality between its inhabitants; it would of-annexation-to-be-brought-before- perpetually be on the verge of civil war. government-on-sunday-1.8466207. Such a process will have pernicious and 7. , “Israel Puts Brakes on lasting consequences, leading Israel to an West Bank Annexation Plan,” New York Times, unprecedented crisis of delegitimization, February 2, 2020, https://www.nytimes. enhanced demonization, and isolation. com/2020/02/02/world/middleeast/israel- These issues are even more concerning west-bank-annexation.html. as the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic 8. Ari Heistein and Eldad Shavit, “Israel threatens global and regional stability. Must Prepare for a Biden Presidency,” Blurred boundaries, mixed populations, Institute for National Security Studies, 8 IS THERE A PRACTICAL ROADMAP FOR TRUMP’S “PEACE TO PROSPERITY” VISION?

April 22, 2020, https://www.inss.org.il/ 24. Keith Johnson, “The Big Missing Piece publication/joe-biden-israel-relationship/. of the Kushner Plan: Water,” Foreign Policy, 9. Aron Heller, “PM: Israel Has ‘Full Right’ February 4, 2020, https://foreignpolicy. to Annex Strategic Jordan Valley,” Associated com/2020/02/04/trump-kushner-peace- Press, December 5, 2019, https://apnews. plan-israelis-palestinians-water/. com/b83397f9c9fa49b18073420c44e980f5. 25. Erika Weinthal, “Water as a Basic 10. Uzi Dayan, “Uzi Dayan: ‘Sovereignty Human Right Within the Israeli-Palestinian in the Jordan Valley is a Security Necessity,’” Conflict,” American Diplomacy, October Jerusalem Post, February 14, 2020, https:// 2017, http://americandiplomacy.web.unc. www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Uzi- edu/2017/10/water-as-a-basic-human- Dayan-Sovereignty-in-the-Jordan-Valley- right-within-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/. is-a-security-necessity-617594. 26. Adam Rasgon, Tovah Lazaroff, and 11. Sher, “Let’s Call Trump’s Plan Sharon Udasin, “Israel Gives Pal. Authority What It Is.” Limited Water Autonomy in West Bank,” 12. Ilan Goldenberg, “A Security System Jerusalem Post, January 17, 2017, https:// for the Two-State Solution,” Center for a New www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/ American Security, May 31, 2016, https:// Israel-gives-Pal-Authority-limited-water- www.cnas.org/publications/reports/ autonomy-in-West-Bank-478672. advancing-the-dialogue-a-security- 27. Gilead Sher and Daniel Cohen, The system-for-the-two-state-solution. Repercussions of Partial or Full West Bank 13. White House, “Peace to Prosperity,” Annexation by Israel, Rice University’s Baker 17 (Washington, D.C: White House), January Institute for Public Policy, Houston, Texas, 2020, https://www.whitehouse.gov/ November 2019, https://www.bakerinstitute. wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Peace-to- org/research/repercussions-partial-or-full- Prosperity-0120.pdf. west-bank-annexation-israel/. 14. Michael J. Koplow, “Building a Better 28. Commanders for Israel’s Security, Trump Plan,” , January Ramifications of West Bank Annexation: 30, 2020, https://israelpolicyforum. Security and Beyond (Commanders for org/2020/01/30/building-a-better-trump- Israel’s Security and Israel Policy Forum, plan/. 2018), https://israelpolicyforum.org/ 15. Sher, “Comparing the ‘Deal of the annexation/. Century.’” 29. Merrit Kennedy, “EU Takes a Dim 16. , “Palestinian View of Trump’s Controversial Mideast Peace President Mahmoud Abbas Threatens to Cut Plan,” NPR, February 4, 2020, https:// Security Ties Over U.S. Mideast Plan,” NBC, www.npr.org/2020/02/04/802635401/ February 1, 2020, https://www.nbcnews. eu-takes-a-dim-view-of-trumps- com/news/world/palestinian-president- controversial-mideast-peace-plan. mahmoud-abbas-threatens-cut-security- 30. Adam Rasgon, “PA Premier Calls on ties-over-u-n1128201. to Recognize Palestine to ‘Counter’ 17. “Peace to Prosperity,” Appendix 2C. Annexation Plan,” Times of Israel, February 18. Sher, “Comparing the ‘Deal of the 20, 2020, https://www.timesofisrael.com/ Century.’” pa-premier-calls-on-eu-to-recognize- 19. “Peace to Prosperity,” Appendix 2C. palestine-to-counter-possible-annexation/. 20. Gideon Biger and Gilead Sher, “What 31. Noa Landau, “In Wake of Trump Peace the Trump Peace Plan Doesn’t Tell Us,” Ynet, Plan, EU Countries Pushing for Recognition February 15, 2020, https://www.ynetnews. of State of Palestine,” Haaretz, February 16, com/article/Hk3Fmj11X8. 2020, https://www.haaretz.com/israel- 21. Ibid. news/.premium-in-wake-of-trump-plan- 22. “Security First Plan.” S. Daniel eu-countries-pushing-for-recognition-of- Abraham Center for Peace, https:// state-of-palestine-1.8536907. centerpeace.org/explore/security-first-by- 32. Jonathan Lis, “Gantz Voted in as commanders-for-israels-security/. Knesset Speaker, Paving Way for ‘Emergency’ 23. “Peace to Prosperity,” 29-30. Unity Government With Netanyahu,” Haaretz, 9 BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20

March 26, 2020, https://www.haaretz. 42. Adnan Abu Amer, “The U.S. com/israel-news/.premium-kahol-lavan- Deal Polarises Palestine-Jordan-Saudi on-verge-of-split-as-gantz-submits-his- Relations,” Middle East Monitor, February name-for-knesset-speaker-1.8713168. 11, 2020, https://www.middleeastmonitor. 33. Daniel Estrin, “‘Like A Prisoner com/20200211-the-us-deal-polarises- Being Let Free’: Israel-Hamas Truce palestine-jordan-saudi-relations/. Lends Hope To Gaza’s Jobless,” NPR, 43. “26: Formalize the Role of the Arab January 23, 2020, https://www.npr. Quartet,” 50 Before the Deal, Israel Policy org/2020/01/23/798618713/like-a- Forum, http://50beforethedeal.com/steps/ prisoner-being-let-free-israel-hamas- formalize-the-role-of-the-arab-quartet. truce-lends-hope-to-gaza-s-jobless. 44. Abdel Monem Said Aly, Shai Feldman, 34. “Peace to Prosperity,” 13. and Nawaf Obaid, “Art of the Peace Deal: 35. Lawahez Jabari and Saphora Smith, What Can Be Done in Israel and Palestine?” “Facing a Palestinian State, Arab Israelis Find National Interest, October 29, 2017, https:// Trump’s Mideast Plan Unworkable,” NBC, nationalinterest.org/feature/art-the- February 22, 2020, https://www.nbcnews. peace-deal-what-can-be-done-israel- com/news/world/facing-palestinian-state- palestine-22951. arab-israelis-find-trump-s-mideast- 45. Luke Baker and Adrian Croft, “EU plan-n1140331. Seeks to Bolster Middle East Peace Quartet 36. Raoul Wootliff, “Gantz: Joint List via Arab Involvement,” , March Won’t Be Part of My Coalition, Which 2, 2015, https://www.reuters.com/ Will Implement Trump Plan,” Times of article/us-israel-palestinians-quartet- Israel, February 11, 2020, https://www. idUSKBN0LY1PA20150302. timesofisrael.com/gantz-joint-list-wont- be-part-of-my-coalition-which-will- implement-trump-plan/. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT See more Baker Institute Reports at: 37. TOI Staff, “Netanyahu Disavows The authors are deeply grateful to Professor www.bakerinstitute.org/baker-reports Trump Plan Idea to Redraw Border Around Robert H. Mnookin for his invaluable support Arab Israeli Towns,” Times of Israel, February This publication was written by a and insightful contribution to this article. 20, 2020, https://www.timesofisrael.com/ researcher (or researchers) who participated in a Baker Institute project. netanyahu-disavows-trump-plan-idea- Wherever feasible, this research is to-redraw-border-around-arab-israeli- AUTHORS reviewed by outside experts before it is towns/. released. However, the views expressed 38. “Peace to Prosperity,” 13. Gilead Sher is the Isaac and Mildred herein are those of the individual 39. Khaled Abu Toameh, “Abbas: 1,000 Brochstein Fellow in Middle East Peace and author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s ‘No’s to the Trump Plan,” Jerusalem Post, Security in Honor of Yitzhak Rabin at the Baker Institute for Public Policy. January 28, 2020, https://www.jpost.com/ Baker Institute. He is also a senior researcher Israel-News/Peace-group-Joint-List-slam- at the Institute for National Security © 2020 Rice University’s Baker Deal-of-the-Century-615711. Studies, where he heads the Center for Institute for Public Policy 40. “Trump Unveils His Middle East Applied Negotiations. Plan Amid Palestinian Rejections,” Al This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, Jazeera, January 28, 2020, https:// Daniel Cohen is a research intern in the provided appropriate credit is given to www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ Baker Institute Center for the Middle East. the authors and Rice University’s Baker trump-unveils-israeli-plan-palestinian- He is an undergraduate at Rice University Institute for Public Policy. rejections-200128151735083.html. studying linguistics and Jewish studies, with 41. Aaron Reich, “Kushner: U.S. to a concentration in and Islamic texts. Cite as: Sher, Gilead, and Daniel Cohen. 2020. Approve Annexation If Palestinians Don't Is There a Practical Roadmap for Negotiate,” Jerusalem Post, March 8, Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” Vision?. 2020, https://www.jpost.com/Middle- Baker Institute Report no. 05.11.20. East/Kushner-US-to-approve-Israeli- Rice University’s Baker Institute for annexation-if-Palestinians-dont- Public Policy, Houston, Texas. negotiate-620135.

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