REPORT 05.11.20 Is There a Practical Roadmap for Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” Vision? Gilead Sher, Isaac and Mildred Brochstein Fellow in Middle East Peace and Security in Honor of Yitzhak Rabin Daniel Cohen, Intern, Center for the Middle East concessions for Palestinian sovereignty over 1. INTRODUCTION any part of the Old City or the Temple Mount, As a potential “Deal of the Century,” eliciting further Palestinian scorn for the plan. President Donald Trump’s “Peace to Both stipulations disregard carefully crafted Prosperity” plan does not live up to its compromises from former negotiations—the name. It falls well short of an ultimate Oslo process, Camp David, and Annapolis— deal that will break the Israeli-Palestinian which offered detailed sovereignty-sharing gridlock and equitably resolve the conflict. proposals and special security arrangements. It is more accurately a continuation of Even worse, while the Trump plan licenses previous interim agreements—essentially, Israel to initiate annexation without any an Oslo C—but with a significant departure preconditions, Palestinian statehood from past negotiation understandings.1 is conditioned upon a compilation of While the Trump plan The truly innovative components of the unreasonable and impractical thresholds— licenses Israel to initiate deal bend unabashedly toward Israeli all but assuring Palestinian failure. desires, without compensatory elements It is worth noting that while the plan annexation without for Palestinian aspirations. The distortion of has not received strong Arab support, any preconditions, internal balances previously established in neither has it been rejected as strongly Palestinian statehood other U.S. frameworks seems detrimental to as the Palestinians might wish. The Arab is conditioned upon League has dismissed the peace plan as promoting peace or regional security. a compilation of Previous negotiations have recognized insufficient for Palestinian independence;3 a distinction between the main Jewish nevertheless, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, unreasonable and settlement blocs near the pre-1967 Green and the United Arab Emirates have all issued impractical thresholds— Line and more isolated Jewish settlements statements tepidly welcoming Trump’s all but assuring proposal and calling for negotiations.4 In the in the heart of the West Bank, but Trump’s Palestinian failure. plan allows for Israeli annexation of all past, a plan like this would have received Jewish settlements.2 Though the Clinton resounding criticism from all Arab parties. Parameters recognized the significance Today, with shifting Middle East alliances and of the Jordan Valley to Israeli security and threats—i.e., Iran—moderate Sunni states are would have created a six-year plan for concerned with displeasing Trump and are Israeli withdrawal from it, Trump’s plan increasingly open to establishing relations offers Israel political sovereignty over the with Israel.5 Jordan Valley. At the very least, Trump’s plan serves The plan envisions Israeli control of as a harsh reminder to the Palestinians that the Palestinian state’s airspace, sea, and time is not in their favor. Yet, this should electromagnetic spectrum, as well as all not deceive Israelis into thinking time is on borders and crossing points. There are also no their side. The Trump plan could harden the Israeli center-right to tolerate fewer BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20 compromises in future negotiations, enter year timeline for its implementation, yet the a new potential spoiler into the Israeli- potential sequencing of the plan—first Israeli Palestinian peace process, and lead Israel annexation, then the rest, if at all—negates down a perilous path to international the possibility of a functional process. demonization and social upheaval. The introduction of the grand deal Though it is unfortunate for both sides, has been marred from the start by a lack the Trump plan will shape the negotiation of cohesion on the part of the Trump process for years to come—regardless of administration regarding the timeframe for the results of the U.S. 2020 presidential Israeli annexation of West Bank territory. The Trump plan will elections. It will serve as a point of reference Immediately after the press conference in in future negotiations for those strongly in Washington announcing the deal, Benjamin serve as a point of favor of it and those staunchly opposed, Netanyahu indicated that the Knesset reference in future just as many other plans in the wastebasket would draft an annexation proposal within negotiations for those of history have continued to influence the the week, with full support from the White strongly in favor of it peace process. Since all parties involved House.6 Two days later, Jared Kushner, and those staunchly will undoubtedly bear the consequences Trump’s son-in-law and one of the creators of the Peace to Prosperity plan, it is worth of the Peace to Prosperity vision, said the opposed, just as examining the implementation issues and Trump administration would prefer Israel many other plans in the the proposed framework, as well as how wait until after the March elections to annex wastebasket of history Israelis, Palestinians, and Arab states can territory, citing a months-long process of 7 have continued to navigate the negotiation process. required technical work on the vision’s map. Of course, the Covid-19 pandemic has Now, the target date for annexation agreed influence the placed many foreign policy issues on hold by the Netanyahu-Gantz 2020 coalition peace process. as the world copes with the health crisis. matches the political campaigning of Trump This will not erase the Israeli-Palestinian and Netanyahu. The way is open to proceed. conflict, nor the problems of the Trump plan. According to a recent INSS Insight, Rather, once the pandemic has subsided, however, Israel must prepare for the the geopolitical challenges facing the Middle repercussions of annexation under a Biden East will resurface, amplified. Then, perhaps administration: “The former Vice President all parties involved can utilize the post- stated in August 2019 that ‘we have to Covid-19 years to attempt resolving—or put pressure constantly on the Israelis to at least subduing—issues critical to the move to a two-state solution.’ Yet the resolution of the conflict. coalition agreement between Likud and Blue and White, which is the foundation for the new Israeli government, permits 2. ANNEXATION, IMPLEMENTATION, Netanyahu to raise the issue of annexing AND NEGOTIATION NON-STARTERS or extending Israeli law to sections of the West Bank as of July 1, 2020. Because 2.1. Sequencing and Deriving Annexation such steps are viewed by Washington’s Given the total absence of Palestinian foreign policy establishment as disrupting involvement in planning and implementing or even preventing progress toward a two- the deal, the current deal has no way of state solution, any unilateral annexation serving as is as a driver to resolving the initiatives in the West Bank by Israel under conflict. Instead, it will further blur the the auspices of Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ borders between two states, as the Israeli (before or during Biden’s tenure) would right-wing looks to ensure a continued aggravate tensions with a future Biden presence in Judea and Samaria. administration.”8 Furthermore, the deal may give Israel a Netanyahu and others have continued green light to initiate unilateral annexation— to trumpet the security strength of the plan, or accomplish its equivalent by “extending particularly due to the strategic necessity of Israeli law”—over Jewish settlements in the the Jordan Valley.9,10 However, in previous West Bank and the Jordan Valley, starting negotiations Israel has not asked for a July 1, 2020. Trump’s plan envisions a four- sovereign border in the Jordan Valley, but 2 IS THERE A PRACTICAL ROADMAP FOR TRUMP’S “PEACE TO PROSPERITY” VISION? merely an adequate security presence and allocated Palestinian sovereignty over Arab complementary arrangements with Israeli neighborhoods and Israeli sovereignty over intelligence capabilities.11 Security experts Jewish neighborhoods. These partitioned agree that a gradual withdrawal from the Palestinian neighborhoods were to be Valley, perhaps with American or UN forces declared the Palestinian capital. The Old stationed as well, can provide Israel with City would have an international status and the necessary intelligence and security to would be governed by five countries: Israel, the east.12 Palestine, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Rather than advancing a reckless and United States. irreversible annexation project detrimental Palestinian Authority President to a two-state-for two-people solution, Mahmoud Abbas was outraged by the Trump Israel and the U.S. should clarify and administration’s treatment of Jerusalem, re-sequence the negotiations under the declaring “I will not have it recorded in my plan. They must commit to the deal as a history that I have sold Jerusalem.”16 The starting point, not an endpoint. From the status of Jerusalem is a grave concern for outset, Trump and Netanyahu must eschew Muslims around the world, and Palestinian unilateral action in favor of multilateral leaders are beholden to their Palestinian good-faith negotiations. This is necessary constituency and their Arab allies. Abbas but not sufficient for advancing negotiations, cannot surrender a capital in holy Jerusalem as the deal contains significant non-starters (Al-Quds), and any sensible plan must regarding Jerusalem,