HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Hurricane Arthur Information from NHC Advisory 14B, 8:00 AM EDT Friday July 4, 2014 On the forecast track Arthur’s center will move well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Coast of the United States today, pass southeast of tonight, and be near or over western early Saturday. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Arthur is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or Saturday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 90 mph Position Relative to 130 miles E of Speed: (category 1) Land: Norfolk, Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 976 mb Coordinates: 36.5 N, 74.7 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 125 miles Bearing/Speed: NE or 40 degrees at 23 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary  Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas in NC and VA this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning area in New England by tonight.  The combination of a dangerous and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at high-tide: 3 to 5 feet on NC within the warning area; 2 to 4 feet on Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds; 1 to 3 feet on extreme southeastern VA.  Rainfall will be diminishing over eastern NC this morning with storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximums of 8 inches possible. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible over southeastern VA. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible over RI, eastern MA, and coastal ME.  The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Arthur nearing western Nova Scotia, early on Saturday at hurricane strength. It also shows the locations of current watches and warning areas which are described at the top of page 2.  The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC forecast, and estimates the extent and intensity of Arthur's two-minute average wind speed at 10m above terrain. Forecast Track for Hurricane Arthur Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Arthur (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

07-06 ee eenncc wwrr LLaa tt.. SS Montreal Ottawa NH C tr ack ! LakeLake OntarioOntario ÏD Trop Dep NHC Rochester CAT_I D ! ÏS Trop Sto rm TD 07-05 TS !1 Cat 1 Ca t 1 Ï Ca t 2 Philadelphia !2 Ï Cat 2 Ca t 3 Washington D.C. Ca t 4 !3 Ca t 5 Ï Cat 3 ! Ï4 Cat 4 Norfolk ! Ï5 Cat 5

07-04 05001,000250 Miles

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Benchmarking the 2014 Atlantic Season to Date 2014 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2014 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2014 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2014 2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 7/4/14) 1 1 0

2013 year to date (1/1/13 – 7/4/13) 2 0 0 8 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 4 2014 CSU season forecasts 10 4 1 (Colorado State University at June 2)

2014 NOAA season forecasts TS Arthur 8-13 3-6 1-2 HU Arthur (NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at May 22) 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2014 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Arthur is the first named storm and the first hurricane of the 2014 The graph above shows 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Atlantic Hurricane Season. Two named storms had occurred by this average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It date last year, but the first hurricane, Humberto, did not occur until shows, for example, that Arthur became the first tropical storm of mid-September of 2013. The next tropical storm of 2014 will be named the season on July 1 and the first hurricane on July 3, close to the Bertha. average date of the season’s first tropical storm but nearly a month

earlier than the average date of the first hurricane. The graph also

shows that the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average are currently no identified areas of additional tropical cyclone remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at July 4 is formation potential. 98% for all hurricanes and 99% for major hurricanes. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on July 4, 2014 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20%

Risk Daily Average

Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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