HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Hurricane Arthur Information from NHC Advisory 10A, 8:00 AM EDT Thursday July 3, 2014 Arthur’s outer rain-bands are now reaching southern portions of . On the forecast track Arthur is expected to move near the North Carolina tonight. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 80 mph Position Relative to 300 miles SW of Speed: (category 1) Land: , North Carolina Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 983 mb Coordinates: 31.8 N, 78.7 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 90 miles Bearing/Speed: NNE or 15 degrees at 9 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane waning area by tonight. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal NC.  The combination of a dangerous and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at high-tide: 2 to 4 feet on the NC outer banks, and ; 1 to 3 feet on southern NC and northeastern SC; 1 to 2 feet on extreme southeastern VA.  Arthur is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximums of 6 inches, over coastal areas of NC through Friday. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible along the upper coast of SC.  The current NHC forecast map (below left) keeps Arthur just off the East Coast, passing near Cape Hatteras NC at Category 1 hurricane strength.  The windfield map (below right) – based on the AVNO forecast, one of many used to inform the NHC forecast – provides an alternative perspective. It has Arthur taking a slightly more westerly track, bringing tropical storm force winds to portions of SC, NC and VA. The forecast track for this model is shown in bold gray and the NHC’s forecast track is shown in bold black. To illustrate the uncertainty in Arthur’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray. Forecast Track for Hurricane Arthur Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Arthur (National Hurricane Center) (Based on AVNO at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. 07-06 07-06Saint-Pierre Canada

LakeLake HuronHuron Ottawa Montreal Ottawa LakeLake OntarioOntario Toronto Rochester Storm Category ! Toronto ÏD Trop Dep weak TS LakeLake ErieErie Buffalo United States strong TS 07-05 !S Ï Trop Storm Cleveland Brooklyn New York Cat 1 07-05 Cat 2 Pittsburgh !1 Washington D.C. Cat 3 Ï Cat 1 Cat 4 !2 NHC track Ï Cat 2 AV NO trac k !3 All Fcst Tracks Ï Cat 3 07-04 ! Ï4 Cat 4 07-04

!5 Hamilton Ï Cat 5

07-03 07-03 05001,000250 Miles Jacksonville

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Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2014 Atlantic Season to Date 2014 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2014 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2014 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2014 2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 7/3/14) 1 1 0

2013 year to date (1/1/13 – 7/3/13) 2 0 0 8 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7

2014 CSU season forecasts 4 10 4 1 (Colorado State University at June 2)

2014 NOAA season forecasts TS Arthur 8-13 3-6 1-2 HU Arthur (NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at May 22) 0

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2014 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity

Arthur is the first named storm and the first hurricane of the 2014 The graph above shows 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and

Atlantic Hurricane Season. Two named storms had occurred by this average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It

date last year, but the first hurricane, Humberto, did not occur until shows, for example, that Arthur became the first tropical storm of

mid-September of 2013. The next tropical storm of 2014 will be named the season on July 1 and the first hurricane on July 3, close to the

Bertha. average date of the season’s first tropical storm but nearly a month

earlier than the average date of the first hurricane. The graph also

shows that the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2

hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average are currently no identified areas of additional tropical cyclone remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at July 3 is formation potential. 98% for all hurricanes and 99% for major hurricanes.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on July 3, 2014 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20%

Risk Daily Average

Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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