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Hurricane Arthur Information from NHC Advisory 10A, 8:00 AM EDT Thursday July 3, 2014 Arthur’S Outer Rain-Bands Are Now Reaching Southern Portions of North Carolina

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Hurricane Arthur Information from NHC Advisory 10A, 8:00 AM EDT Thursday July 3, 2014 Arthur’S Outer Rain-Bands Are Now Reaching Southern Portions of North Carolina HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Arthur Information from NHC Advisory 10A, 8:00 AM EDT Thursday July 3, 2014 Arthur’s outer rain-bands are now reaching southern portions of North Carolina. On the forecast track Arthur is expected to move near the North Carolina Outer Banks tonight. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 80 mph Position Relative to 300 miles SW of Speed: (category 1) Land: Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 983 mb Coordinates: 31.8 N, 78.7 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 90 miles Bearing/Speed: NNE or 15 degrees at 9 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane waning area by tonight. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal NC. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at high-tide: 2 to 4 feet on the NC outer banks, Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound; 1 to 3 feet on southern NC and northeastern SC; 1 to 2 feet on extreme southeastern VA. Arthur is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximums of 6 inches, over coastal areas of NC through Friday. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible along the upper coast of SC. The current NHC forecast map (below left) keeps Arthur just off the East Coast, passing near Cape Hatteras NC at Category 1 hurricane strength. The windfield map (below right) – based on the AVNO forecast, one of many used to inform the NHC forecast – provides an alternative perspective. It has Arthur taking a slightly more westerly track, bringing tropical storm force winds to portions of SC, NC and VA. The forecast track for this model is shown in bold gray and the NHC’s forecast track is shown in bold black. To illustrate the uncertainty in Arthur’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray. Forecast Track for Hurricane Arthur Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Arthur (National Hurricane Center) (Based on AVNO at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. 07-06 Saint-Pierre 07-06 Canada LakeLake HuronHuron Ottawa Montreal LakeLake OntarioOntario Toronto Rochester Storm Category ! Toronto ÏD Trop Dep weak TS LakeLake ErieErie Buffalo Boston United States 07-05 strong TS ! ÏS Trop Storm Cleveland Brooklyn New York Cat 1 Cleveland 07-05 Cat 2 Pittsburgh !1 Washington D.C. Cat 3 Ï Cat 1 Cat 4 !2 NHC track Ï Cat 2 AV NO trac k All Fcst Tracks !3 Ï Cat 3 07-04 ! Ï4 Cat 4 07-04 !5 Hamilton Ï Cat 5 07-03 07-03 05001,000250 Miles Jacksonville © Copyright 2014 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guidance only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings A hurricane warning– meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area – is in effect for Surf City NC to the NC/VA border, Pamlico Sound and eastern Albemarle Sound. A hurricane watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area – is in effect for Little River Inlet to south of Surf City. A tropical storm warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area – is in effect for south Santee River SC, to south of Surf City, the NC/VA border to Cape Charles Light VA including the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, and western Albemarle Sound. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2014 Atlantic Season to Date 2014 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2014 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2014 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2014 2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 7/3/14) 1 1 0 2013 year to date (1/1/13 – 7/3/13) 2 0 0 8 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2014 CSU season forecasts 4 10 4 1 (Colorado State University at June 2) 2014 NOAA season forecasts TS Arthur 8-13 3-6 1-2 HU Arthur (NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at May 22) 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2014 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Arthur is the first named storm and the first hurricane of the 2014 The graph above shows 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Atlantic Hurricane Season. Two named storms had occurred by this average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It date last year, but the first hurricane, Humberto, did not occur until shows, for example, that Arthur became the first tropical storm of mid-September of 2013. The next tropical storm of 2014 will be named the season on July 1 and the first hurricane on July 3, close to the Bertha. average date of the season’s first tropical storm but nearly a month earlier than the average date of the first hurricane. The graph also shows that the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average are currently no identified areas of additional tropical cyclone remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at July 3 is formation potential. 98% for all hurricanes and 99% for major hurricanes. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on July 3, 2014 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100% 48% 80% 36% 60% 24% 40% 12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435 [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 Page 2 of 2 .
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