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Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur Thursday, July 03, 2014 at 2 PM EDT (Output from Hurrevac, Based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory #11A)

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Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur Thursday, July 03, 2014 at 2 PM EDT (Output from Hurrevac, Based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory #11A) Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur Thursday, July 03, 2014 at 2 PM EDT (Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory #11A) Arthur is currently a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (80 kts), moving north at 13 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the storm center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the storm center. Certain coastal locations are under Hurricane Warning, Hurricane Watch, and Tropical Storm Warning. The geographic extents of these watches and warnings are detailed in the advisory text at the end of this report. Wind Analysis for Dare, NC (Based upon Hurricane ARTHUR Advisory #11A) Wind Probabilities CAPE HATTERAS, the closest reporting location, has within the 5-day forecast period of this advisory, a 72% chance of hurricane-force (64kt/74mph or greater) winds, a 95% chance of at least strong tropical storm-force (50kt/58mph) winds, and a 99% chance of at least tropical storm-force (34kt/39mph) winds. Peak Wind* Winds in Dare, NC are projected to peak at 90kt/103mph around 4 AM on Friday, July 04, 2014 Wind Arrival and Duration* Tropical storm-force winds (34kt/39mph) are forecast to begin in Dare, NC on Thursday, July 03, 2014 at 10 PM. Winds of this magnitude or higher are forecast to continue for 11 hours. Strong tropical storm-force winds (50kt/58mph) are forecast to begin in Dare, NC on Friday, July 04, 2014 at 1 AM. Winds of this magnitude or higher are forecast to continue for 6 hours. Hurricane-force winds (64kt/74mph) are forecast to begin in Dare, NC on Friday, July 04, 2014 at 3 AM. Winds of this magnitude or higher are forecast to continue for 3 hours. * These wind estimations are limited to the first 72 hours (3 days) following advisory issuance, and are subject to considerable forecast uncertainty and generalization, especially if the storm is distant. Maximum sustained winds (the highest surface wind maintained over a 1 minute period) are reported here. Wind gusts and winds at higher elevations will be greater. Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #11A - Page 2 WTNT31 KNHC 031759 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 78.3W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #11A - Page 3 FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA HAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH. THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #11A - Page 4 SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN WWWW 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031459 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Arthur continues to strengthen this morning. The Air Force plane has reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 83 kt. The NOAA aircraft reported 91 kt from 8,000 ft, and both aircraft have measured surface winds of around 80 kt from the SFMR. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. Arthur is forecast to remain in low shear and move over warm water during the next 24 hours. This should allow for some additional intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for Arthur to reach category two strength prior to its landfall or closest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered intensity guidance. After that time, Arthur will be moving over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the shear is forecast to increase as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer trough that will be moving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should steadily weaken after that. Aircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little faster and appears to have turned north-northeastward, although the motion over the last hour or two was northward. The hurricane should turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the deep-layer trough nearing the U.S. east coast. The models are in good agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight Storm Summary for Hurricane Arthur #11A - Page 5 westward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland over eastern North Carolina.
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