Turkey's Economy Collapses: IMF Demands Blood

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Turkey's Economy Collapses: IMF Demands Blood Click here for Full Issue of EIR Volume 4, Number 19, May 10, 1977 MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIC SURVEY Turkey ' s Economy Collapses:' IMF Demands Blood cooperate... We in the banking community are very TURKEY worried about Turkey." Until the present, import cut­ backs have largely been confined to consumer goods. Now, substantial cutbacks are being demanded in capital Turkish Finance Minister Yilmaz Ergenekon arrived goods imports, seriously jeopardizing Turkey's am­ last week in Washington to receive dictates from the bitious industrialization program and expectations for a World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (lMF) continued high level of overall national growth. on the austerity measures that the Turkish government Ergenekon's arrival in the U.S. coincides with the most must implement to resolve what the World Bank calls serious economic crisis Turkey has faced since 1970, Turkey's "chronic and chaotic indebtedness." According when the IMF pushed through a 66 percent devaluation of to an official at Chase Manhattan Bank, the IMF has the Turkish lira. Production ground to a halt during that prepared a comprehensive austerity package for the period (see Table 1) and has remained depressed since Turks. The crux of the package is a 75 percent then, never fully recovering. Less than one year later, devaluation of the Turkish li�a and a complete halt to all the Turkish military took over to enforce the IMF's harsh Imports. measures. In commenting on the 75 percent devaluation, another The current situation is equally critical. According to New York banker affirmed, "Of course 75 percent. It has the Turkish daily Cumhuriyet, "the collapse of the to be smashing to be effective ... And they must cut all economy is inevitable." Last week, reserves plunged to imports. If they don't, we will force them' to an all-time low of $490 million. With $147 million of that Table 1 Industrjal Production In Turkey (LOOO TONS ) CUMULA- TIVE 1965 1968 1971) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 I�'�?7�%) PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR I PIG IRON 500 910 L034 879 L135 896 L200 L197 L383* + 27.2 STEEL INGOTS 581 L109 L312 1,118 L,4£12 L163 L458 L450 L330* + 0.2 ROLLED PRODUCTS 268 75/� 996 958 1,111 975 898 828 810* + 9.2 SEtH -F I NI SHED ROLLED PRODUCTS L232 L539 4�7 592 555 LI05* +120.0 CEMENT 3,240 4.728 6,372 7,553 8,L!25 8,948 8,931 10,850 11,674* + 13.7 COMMERCIAL FERTILIZERS 376 442 679 835 L435 L211) L462 2,685 2,651* + 6.7 COKE L138 1.£128 1,536 L4LI(1 L£152 1.428 1.398 L202 L541** + 32.0 SUGAR 522 650 517 f42 79/4 723 758 806 801* + 23.5 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 4,2% 6,154 7,039 8,5QO 10,230 12,532 12,686 12,346 12,064* + 6.9 SOURCE: TURKIYE Is Bl�NKASI *JAN.-rloV. **JAN.-OCT. MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIC SURVEY 1 © 1977 EIR News Service Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission strictly prohibited. ' amount in gold, and $150 million mere letters of credit, Bank's strong-arm t�ctics. Another meeting slated for the remaining $192 million in liquidity is not even enough several weeks later never catoe off due to "internal for two weeks worth of imports. The trade deficit was problems in the Turkish government." Sources close to more than $3 billion last year and is rising rapidly. In the the Turkish government revealed that the "internal first quarter of 1977, the deficit was close to $1 billion, a 96 problems" were Ankara's refusal to cooperate with the percent jump over the same period last year. Imports Bank. In retaliation, the World Bank has cut off funding are up 12 percent for the first quarter over the first for all projects in Turkey, as have the New York banks, quarter last year; export earnings are down 38 percent. and is linking the resumption of credits to Turkish con­ Remittances from Turkish workers in Europe - once cessions on Cyprus, just as Carter has linked the ' Turkey s largest source of f oreign currency - dropped resumption of military aid to Turkish concessions on by more than 30 percent in 1976 over 1975. Exacerbating Cyprus. One of the projects cut is the Afsin-Elbistan the situation are $2 billion in short term debt obligations dam, a cornerstone of the Turkish government's resulting from "quick cash" convertible lira deposits development plans for eastern Turkey. extended to the Turks over the past two years and now With elections scheduled for June 5, numerous banking falling due. sources have admitted that it would be "political suicide" for Prime Minister Suleyman Demirel to' go IMF Blackmail along with the World Bank. To buy off the Turks, the For months the Turkish government has resisted World Bank reportedly told Ergenekon that until the carrying out the IMF's austerity recommendations. elections it will deal with Turkey on "a day-to-day basis" Earlier this year, a World Bank delegation visiting on the condition that Turkey abandon its pro-growth Turkey was summarily snubbed by Ergenekon, who had industrial policies and implement austerity once the his representatives attending a meeting with the World elections are over. Bank officials walk out of the talks in protest of the World According to one New York banking source, --------------------------- Table 2 ------------------------�--� Achievements Of The Turkish Development Plans (IN PERCENTS) 1963-67 �COND 1968-72 PLAN 1973-77 FIRST PLAN PLAN THIRD TARGET ACTUAL TARGET ACTUAL TARGET ACTUAL FIXED INVESTMENT I U E . .... .. i����i� , .. .. ••. !�: .�... .• . •.. •···,,:�i.:!.,.,.·. ::,:':!':,·:;J::::;;::,, : � ........... '.�,�1=:�:;:':�;;:::��t:::'·:3;;::: 13.7 15.7 16.1 16.7 14,5 TRANSPORT 20.3 22.3 17,9 20.3 15.7 HOUSING 9.4 8,1 �.5 6.2 6.4 SOCIAL SECTOR 8.0 7.9 8,2 7.5 6.3 OTHER SERVICES 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 TOTAL r SECTORAL GROI'ITH RATE f::�:� .. I::•.• .• .. .... .. 4 . 2 3 . 7 III � .S�hT�.R ":;::""::"::::, ,,.,:,::: .,,::::, ,, , :,,, :".,:":" ,:, ::, ,,::::,: ,, : • : .. :: . ......... .. : : � , , : , : ,:. ...:::.:. •••••••••••••••••••••:::: •••• �t ••• :• ••••: •••• •••• •••• •••••••••• . : . :: ::::: ·· �.: .t: . ;, ,� : :r{i •• . • . : : : : . L�RYS,TR,y' ·.. •.• . •.• : .:::. : .: •: ·:.:. :: t : . :.:.:.:.:.:.: • • ••• •••• •• ••• •••• •••• :• •• .... ..... I?.}. •• •. ::::E:�:9..:.·;.::::::::::::::::::::.:. 9,.:;.:�:::::::: : :: : : H t •• • ••••: • • • ••• ••• ••• ••••• • •• • ::: . 10.7 :><>iQ:.:W.::.::.·8 Jl · ·�· 5.0 11.9 CONSTRUCTION . :,.::'1 7.2 : : ::: 10.5 7.8 7.2 8.8 8,2 TRANSPCRTA TI ON I 3.5 5.9 6.8 5,0 fiOUSING - 6.2 7.5 6.3 7.7 7.1 SERVICES 6.9 6.5 6.8 6.Fi 7,5 GDP FACTOR COST �: FIVE YEAR PLAN REPORTS 2 MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIC SURVEY ,....------------ Table 3 -------------, Turkey: Production Growth And Expenditure Of GNP ( PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR ) 1966 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 197LI 1975 1976 OUTPUT INDUSTRY 10.6 9.4 2.2 10.2 U.5 12.8 9.1 8.5 AGRICULTURE U.4 -0.1 1.4 13.1 -0.2 -10,3 10.3 8.9 CONSTRUCTION 12.8 8.8 5.3 -,� .5 7.2 9.9 7.7 8.7 EXPENDITURE OF GN P PUBLIC GROSS FIXED INVESTMENT 19.7 9.1 3.4 -R.6 9.2 10.0 17.2 25.9 �3.7 PRIVATE GROSS FIXED INVESTMENT 22.2 13. 7 8.7 0.9 11.8 11.7 14.2 9.7 27.4 SOURCE: DEeD Ergenekon, as well as a delegation of Turkey's top targetted in the plans. (See Table 2) The current Third businessmen and industrialists\visiting the U.S. at the Five Year Plan calls for 45.4 percent of all fixed _in- _./ same time, were enraged by the linkage of aid to Cyprus vestment to be channeled into industry. While the first and the demands that Turkey destroy its industry to pay two plans emphasized the private_sector at the expense off the New York banks. However, it remains to be seen of the public sector, the-Third Plan, as well as the Fourth whether or riot the Turks succumb to the World Bank Five Year Plan (l978�82) which will be announced later blackmail. Despite Demirel's willingness since he was this year, focuses explicitly on the need for the rapid initially installed in power more than 10 years ago to expansion of state sector industries. Contrary to the carry out World Bank:}:MF policy, it is ultimately a IMF's insistence that emphasis be placed on light, state political question whether the Turkish government - sector manufactures and traditional, labor intensive either under Demirel or opposition leader Bulent Ecevit agriculture, the Third Plan calls for the establishment of ' - can rally the but-eaucracy and population to accept a intermediate and investment goods industries and the drastic curtailment in industrial growth, a founding application of advanced technology. The plan's major principle of the modern Turkish Republic. investment projects - all in the state sector - number approximately 200 and involve the expansion of the steel The Five Year Plans complexes in Iskenderun and Eregli; a second The core of Turkey's development strategy is rapid petrochemicals complex; a new oil refinery and state sector industrialization. Since the 1950s, despite chemical complex in Tarsus; the expansion of nitrogen recurrent attempts by Atlanticist forces either to divert fertilizers and aluminium production; and an expansion Turkey's pro-development orientation away from in­ of the automobile industry, which is now limited to dustrialization toward traditional, un mechanized assembly, to include the production of gears and tran­ agriculture or to dilute it by emphasizing the need for smissions. labor intensive rather than capital intensive industry, In addition, three important new projects have been Turkey has insisted on developing a diversified heavy launched.
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