Dr. Alexander G. Savelyev Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO)
THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
* “Yet, while the concept of strategic stability features prominently in current discussions and debates about nuclear policy and force posture, strategic stability is—and has always been—a widely used concept without a common understanding. There is no single, universally accepted definition of stability, which factors contribute to and detract from it, or agreed upon metrics for how to measure it. Consequently, there are significant gaps in understanding in the United States and around the world about how nuclear-armed countries view and define the requirements of stability”. * Michael S. Gerson. THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY: THE UNITED STATES AND THE THREAT OF SURPRISE ATTACK IN “STRATEGIC STABILITY: CONTENDING INTERPRETATIONS” (STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE AND U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE PRESS, 2013) THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
Bernard Brodie Main works: The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Power and World Order. (editor and contributor), Harcourt, 1946. Strategy in the Missile Age. Princeton University Press, 1959. The Development of Nuclear Strategy. International Security, Vol. 2, No. 4, (Spring 1978) THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
Bernard Brodie Main achievents: 1. In 1946 predicted that the USSR would soon obtain nuclear weapons. 2. Put forward the main task for the US – not to win nuclear war, but to avert it. 3. Developed basic ideas of the deterrence strategy. THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
George Frost Kennan Main works: "The Sources of Soviet Conduct". Foreign Affairs 25, no. 4 (1947) Main ideas: To deter the USSR by applying not to military, but to political and economic means. Security problem is a political, not a military problem. THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
Paul Nitze Main works: NSC 68: United States Objectives and Programs for National Security (April 14, 1950). A Report to the President Pursuant to the President's Directive of January 31, 1950. Main ideas: The most reliable way to deter the USSR is to strengthen armed forces, including nuclear weapons. THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
Thomas Schelling Main works: The strategy of conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960. The future of arms control // Operations Research. 1961. Vol. 9. No. 5. Arms and influence. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1967. THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
Thomas Schelling Main achievements: 1. Successfully applied game theory to the behavior of the participants of strategic conflict (1960). Received several awards for this study. In 2005 became a Nobel Prize Winner. 2. Predicted inevitability of arms control (in the beginning of 1960s). 3. Proposed to define strategic offensive and strategic defensive weapons. THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
Main works: The Delicate Balance of Terror (1959). Foreign Affairs. 1959. Vol. 37. No. 2. THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
Albert Wohlstetter Main achievements: Put forward several proposals for the US strategic forces which were accepted by the Government, including: - re-location of all the strategic aviation from Europe to the territory of the US; - deployment of Minutemen ICBMs in hardened cilos; - Installation of a «positive control» system into the US strategic forces. Insisted that the quality of the strategic forces was more important then their quantity, and that the threat of a massive retaliation can not deter the enemy from limited use of nuclear weapons. In 1985 he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom. THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
From left to right: Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter, Paul Nitze, Ronald Reagan. 1985 THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
Herman Kahn Main works and achievements: On Thermonuclear War. Princeton University Press. 1960. Seriously contributed to the theory of nuclear deterrence and escalation of a conflict, including the interconnection of conventional and nuclear weapons. In 1961 founded the Hudson Institute. THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
Henry Kissinger Main works and achievements: Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy. Harper & Brothers. 1957. Developed a basis of “extended deterrence” concept. Did not support “Mutual Assures Destruction” doctrine, paying more attention to limited nuclear options. THE ORIGINS OF STRATEGIC STABILITY THEORY
Robert McNamara Main achievements: Proposed a “numerical” criteria for an “assured destruction” – 400 warheads in retaliatory strike against the aggressor (McNamara Criteria). Statement of Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara Before the House Sub committee on Department of Defense Appropriations on the Fiscal Year 1969– 1973 Defense Program and 1969 Defense Budget.