Political Barometer Survey

Political Barometer Survey:

Prepared by Ipsos Synovate Kenya Release Date: 25th January 2013

! Intention to vote during the next general elections

! Kenyans’ preferences of presidential candidates

! Support level for the various political alliances

2 Methodology

3 Survey Methodology

Dates of polling 12th-20th January 2013

Sample Size 5,895 registered voters

Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Sampling methodology (proportionate to population size) Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas

Data collection Face to Face methodology

Sampling error +/-1.28 with a 95% confidence level

Poll funding Self Financed

4 Sample distribution by county

Voters Data Achieved Sample Voters Registered Voters Registered Total sample % sample Population % achieved achieved BARINGO 171,013 1.2% 71 1.2% BOMET 254,405 1.8% 102 1.7% BUNGOMA 411,981 2.9% 177 3.0% BUSIA 251,737 1.8% 107 1.8% ELGEYO ‐ MARAKWET 134,290 0.9% 61 1.0% EMBU 226,989 1.6% 90 1.5% GARISSA 116,166 0.8% 57 1.0% HOMABAY 331,698 2.3% 141 2.4% ISIOLO 52,617 0.4% 25 0.4% KAJIADO 315,053 2.2% 122 2.1% KAKAMEGA 568,813 4.0% 234 4.0% KERICHO 290,102 2.0% 147 2.5% KIAMBU 860,716 6.0% 342 5.8% KILIFI 340,948 2.4% 148 2.5% KIRINYAGA 262,715 1.8% 100 1.7% KISII 414,493 2.9% 165 2.8% KISUMU 388,729 2.7% 162 2.7% KITUI 323,624 2.3% 133 2.3% KWALE 173,447 1.2% 65 1.1% LAIKIPIA 170,267 1.2% 71 1.2% LAMU 51,830 0.4% 17 0.3% MACHAKOS 445,819 3.1% 186 3.2% MAKUENI 300,086 2.1% 129 2.2% MANDERA 121,005 0.8% 45 0.8% MARSABIT 104,408 0.7% 48 0.8% MERU 483,517 3.4% 150 2.5% MIGORI 287,702 2.0% 104 1.8% MOMBASA 412,602 2.9% 171 2.9% MURANGA 457,052 3.2% 200 3.4% See appended methodology 5 Quality Control Measures

! Supervisors accompanies the interviewer to as an observer (at least 20%)

! Physical back checks – field manager revisits respondents in the sample (at least 15% of sample)

! Telephonic call backs from Ipsos call center ‐ (40% respondents)

! Data checks (interview start time & end times, logic, etc)

6 Respondent demographic profiles

7 Demographic Profile Religion

Nairobi 10% Region Coast 9% Catholic 24% Nyanza 13% Rift Valley 25% Catholic Charismatic 2%

North Eastern 5% Mainstream Protestant Eastern 15% (ACK, Methodist, Presbyter 36% ian, AIC) Central 13% Western 10% SDA 7%

Female 51% Evangelical 10% Gender Male 49% Other Christian 7% 18 - 24 28% 25 - 34 29% Muslim 10% Age 35 - 44 18% 45+ 25% Others 2%

Setting Urban 37% Not Stated 1% Rural 63%

Nationality Kenyans 100%

Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 8 Approval Ratings

9 Approval Ratings of Officials/Institutions Over the Last Three Months - % saying “highly approve”/”somewhat approve”: by total

The Media 85%

President Mwai Kibaki 85%

Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) 81%

Chief Justice 73%

Coalition Government 72%

The Judiciary 68%

Prime Minister Raila Odinga 66%

Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka 55%

The Police 42%

Parliament 41%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895)

10 Locality-Level Issues

11 “What would you say is the most serious problem facing your locality today?” by total

High cost of living 30%

Lack of employment 23%

Crime/ Insecurity 10%

Poor leadership 9%

Poor infrastructure 6%

Lack of water 6%

Corruption 5%

Tribalism 2%

Poverty 1%

Election violence 1%

Other 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895)

12 “What would you say is the most serious problem facing your locality today?” by Province

High cost of living Lack of employment Crime/ Insecurity Poor leadership 60%

50% 44%

40% 37% 33% 30% 29% 30% 29% 30% 28% 29% 28% 25% 26% 23% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 20% 17% 15% 12% 11% 11% 10%9% 9% 9%9% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5%

0% Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Nyanza Rift Valley Western ‐10% Eastern

Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895)

13 “What would you say is the most serious problem facing your locality today?” by supporters of the top 3 presidential candidates

60% High cost of living Lack of employment Crime/ Insecurity Poor leadership Corruption

39% 40% 31% 30% 29% 23% 23% 23% 21% 20%

10%9% 10%9% 10% 9% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5% 0% Total Musalia Mudavadi Raila Odinga (n=2723) Uhuru Kenyatta (n=287) (n=2377)

‐20%

Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895)

14 “What do you believe is the main obstacle to development in your locality?” by total

Selfish/bad/greedy leaders 22% Corruption 20% Government neglect/discrimination 14% Crime/insecurity 11% Tribalism/Ethnic tension/conflict 6% Inadequate water supply/irrigation 5% Laziness of locals 3% Disease/ill health 1% High population growth rate 1% Infertile soils 1% Hot climate 1% Witchcraft 1% International economic forces/factors 1%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895)

15 “What do you believe is the main obstacle to development in your locality?” by Province

Selfish/bad/greedy leaders Corruption Government neglect/discrimination Crime/insecurity 60% Tribalism/Ethnic tension/conflict

50% 48%

40%

30% 30% 30% 26% 26% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 21% 20%20% 20% 20%20% 20% 16% 17% 17% 14% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 12% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3%

0% Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Nyanza Rift Valley Western Eastern

Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895)

16 Electoral Environment

17 “How satisfied are you with the performance of the IEBC?”: by Total

Somewhat satisfied/Very dissatisfied, DK/NR, 4% 7%

Very satisfied/Some what satisfied, 90%

Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 18 “How satisfied are you with the performance of the IEBC?”: by Total

Very satisfied/Somewhat satisfied Somewhat satisfied/Very dissatisfied 100% 91% 88% 89%

80%

60%

40%

20% 8% 6% 7% 4% 3% 4% 0% Musalia Mudavadi Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta

Base: Supporters of the top three candidates

19 “Regarding your intention to vote in the forthcoming election, which of the following statements best applies to you?”: by Total

100%

84% 80%

60%

40%

20% 10% 4% 1% 1% 0% I will vote no I probably will I will not vote no Probably will not DK matter what vote matter what vote

Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895)

20 “How likely is it that election‐related violence will occur in your locality?” By Total + %s for Counties > national average

DK, 6% Marsabit (n=53) 79% Makueni (n=144) 40% RTA/NR, 2% Kakamega (n=222) 38% Mombasa (n=181) 37%

Very Garissa (n=99) 36% likely/Some Isiolo (n=29) 31% what Nairobi (n=619) 30% likely, 21% Homa Bay (n=135) 29% Nyeri (n=123) 29% Migori (n=100) 28% Very Kilifi (n=164) 26% unlikely/So Kisumu (n=164) 26% mewhat Mandera (n=81) 26% unlikely, 71 % Murang'a (n=164) 26% Vihiga (n=100) 26% Machakos (n=205) 24% Tharaka Nithi (n=50) 24% Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) Busia (n=102) 21% 21 Perceived direction the country has been taking by Total

Staying about the same, 12% DK, 2%

The right direction, 48% The wrong direction, 38%

Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895)

22 Perceptions of the country’s direction: by top 3 presidential candidates

The right direction The wrong direction Staying about the same DK/RTA 60% 55% 54%

50% 48% 45% 42% 40% 38% 33% 31% 30%

20% 12% 13% 10% 10% 8% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% Total Musalia Mudavadi Raila Odinga (n=2723) Uhuru Kenyatta (n=287) (n=2377)

Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 23 “Regarding the person you think is most suitable to be the next president, which of the following two statements in closest to your own view?” by top 3 presidential candidates

100% 87% 83% 80% 79% 80%

60%

40%

16% 16% 20% 13% 9% 6% 4% 4% 3% 0% Total Uhuru Kenyatta Raila Odinga Musalia Mudavadi

The best choice for president should always be a person who is most capable of leadership and development for Kenya aa a whole regardless of his/her tribe. It is better to elect a president who does not come from a community that has held this office in the past so that the benefits of power are more widely shared among all Kenyans. NR

Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 24 Presidential Candidate & Political Party/Alliance Preference

25 ‘Regarding the person you think is most suitable to be the next president, which of the following two statements in closest to your own view?”: by perceived direction the country has been taking

100%

83% 84% 82% 83% 80%

60%

40%

20% 13% 12% 12% 13% 6% 4% 3% 4% 0% Total The right direction The wrong direction Staying about the same

Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 26 “Do you think there is any political party that truly represents the interests of people like you?”: by Total

NR, 5%

No, 20%

Yes, 75%

Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 27 Support for the various presidential candidates: by those who feel that no political party “represents the interests of people like you”

35% 33%

30% 25% 25% 22% 20% 19% 17% 15%

10%

0% Musalia Martha Karua Peter Kenneth Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta Mudavadi (n=55) (n=81) (n=2723) (n=2377) (n=287)

Base: (n=1,204) 28 “Which political party do feel closest to, if any?” ‐ Time Series

KANU Narc Kenya ODM ODM Kenya / Wiper Democratic Party PNU TNA UDF URP Kenya National Congress Others None 60%

50% 48%

40% 43% 41% 41% 38% 36% 37% 34% 35% 33% 33% 32% 32% 30% 31% 27% 28% 27% 28% 22% 22% 23% 22% 22% 20% 21% 21% 21% 18% 21% 20% 18% 17% 16%17% 14% 15% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10% 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5%4% 4%5% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3%2% 3%2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2%3% 3% 0% 1%0 01% 01% 1%0 0 0 0 0 0 1% 0% 1%1% 1% 1% 0 0 Mar Jul Oct Dec Mar Jul Oct Dec Apr Jul Sept Nov-12 Jan-13 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012

29 “Which political alliance do you support or feel closest to in the upcoming general elections?” By Total

CORD Alliance 43%

JUBILEE Alliance 40%

AMANI Alliance 4%

EAGLE Alliance 1%

Narc Kenya 1%

NONE 5%

RTA/NR/ DK 5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 30 “Which political alliance do you support or feel closest to in the upcoming general elections?” By Province

CORD Alliance JUBILEE Alliance AMANI Alliance

100% 86% 82% 80%

64% 62% 60% 55% 50% 50% 45% 46% 40% 40% 34% 29% 22% 20% 10% 6% 6% 6% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 0% Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Nyanza Rift Valley Western Eastern

Base: Supporters of the top three alliances

31 “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” (By Total)

50% 46%

40% 40%

30%

20%

10% 5% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0%

Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 32 “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” (By Region)

Musalia Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta MarthaKarua PeterKenneth Undecided Mudavadi Total 46% 40% 5% 1% 1% 2% Central 5% 88% 1% 1% 2% 2% Coast 76% 10% 2% 1% 2% 3% Eastern 54% 34% 1% 1% 1% 2% Nairobi 51% 38% 3% 2% 3% 2% North Eastern 50% 42% 2% 1% 1% 0% Nyanza 87% 7% 1% 0% 1% 2% Rift Valley 25% 63% 3% 1% 1% 2% Western 54% 6% 33% 1% 0% 2%

Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 33 “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” ‐ Time Series

100% Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka Uhuru Kenyatta William Ruto Martha Karua Musalia Mudavadi Eugene Wamalwa Peter Kenneth Prof James Ole Kiyapi Others None/Undecided

80%

60%

48% 46% 42% 40% 40% 38% 34% 36% 36% 36% 34% 34% 32% 32% 33% 33% 30% 26% 27% 24% 22% 22% 23% 20% 21% 18% 14% 14% 12% 11% 10% 11% 10% 10% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 6%7% 7% 6% 7% 7%6% 4% 5% 4%5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4%5% 5% 2% 3% 3%2% 2% 2% 3% 2%3% 2% 0% 0% 0%1% 0%1%2% 0%1% 0%1% 0%1% 0%1% 0%1% 0%1% 1% 1%0% 1%0% 0%0%0% 1% 0%1% Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 2011 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 April Jul 2012 Sept 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan‐13 2012

34 The Undecided Lot with regard to Alliances/Presidential Candidates: by Total, Province

Alliance Support Presidential Vote

50%

40%

30% 23%

20% 17%

11% 10% 9% 9% 10% 8% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 3% 2% 3%

0% Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Nyanza Rift Valley Western Eastern

35 Conclusions

36 Conclusions:

While Raila Odinga's current lead over Uhuru Kenyatta is significant (6%), it is not sufficient to guarantee a first‐round victory for the following reasons:

1) The poll was conducted before the announcement of running‐mates by two other candidates (Musalia Mudavadi, Martha Karua); as a result, the actual joint‐ticket choices (i.e., presidential +running‐mate) were not captured.

2) Most interviews were also conducted before the "shambolic" party‐ nominations process, which may affect actual voter choice (as well as turn‐out itself).

3) The sample was not large enough to generate statistical validity for enough counties to ensure the 25% and > requirement in at least half of the 47 counties has been met.

4) Much (more) can happen on the electoral playing‐field between the time the poll was conducted and March 4. 37 Conclusions:

•Consequently, the key question for this election as of now is this: how will those who do not vote for either of the top two candidates on the first round vote on the second round (assuming they vote at all)?

•While only about 2/3 of eligible Kenyan adults have become registered voters, those who did register express both a firm intention to vote, and quite high levels of confidence in the capacity of the IEBC to ensure a legitimate election. This is so notwithstanding concern with election‐related violence in particular localities.

•Kenyans are in broad agreement about the obstacles they perceive to have better lives, and what they would like the next set of leaders to address at both the national and local level, regardless of which presidential candidate they support.

38 Main Conclusion!

•Together with such other unknown factors as turn‐out rates in various parts of the country on Election D Day, there is no solid basis for predicting the actual outcome as of now.

39 Questions? Comments?

40 For further information contact: Dr Tom Wolf Social Political Consultant [email protected]

Victor Rateng Project Manager - Opinion Polls [email protected]