Political Barometer Survey: Prepared by Ipsos Synovate Kenya Release Date: 25th January 2013 © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. Contents ! Intention to vote during the next general elections ! Kenyans’ preferences of presidential candidates ! Support level for the various political alliances 2 Methodology 3 Survey Methodology Dates of polling 12th-20th January 2013 Sample Size 5,895 registered voters Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Sampling methodology (proportionate to population size) Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Data collection Face to Face methodology Sampling error +/-1.28 with a 95% confidence level Poll funding Self Financed 4 Sample distribution by county Voters Data Achieved Sample Voters Registered Voters Registered Total sample % sample Population % achieved achieved BARINGO 171,013 1.2% 71 1.2% BOMET 254,405 1.8% 102 1.7% BUNGOMA 411,981 2.9% 177 3.0% BUSIA 251,737 1.8% 107 1.8% ELGEYO ‐ MARAKWET 134,290 0.9% 61 1.0% EMBU 226,989 1.6% 90 1.5% GARISSA 116,166 0.8% 57 1.0% HOMABAY 331,698 2.3% 141 2.4% ISIOLO 52,617 0.4% 25 0.4% KAJIADO 315,053 2.2% 122 2.1% KAKAMEGA 568,813 4.0% 234 4.0% KERICHO 290,102 2.0% 147 2.5% KIAMBU 860,716 6.0% 342 5.8% KILIFI 340,948 2.4% 148 2.5% KIRINYAGA 262,715 1.8% 100 1.7% KISII 414,493 2.9% 165 2.8% KISUMU 388,729 2.7% 162 2.7% KITUI 323,624 2.3% 133 2.3% KWALE 173,447 1.2% 65 1.1% LAIKIPIA 170,267 1.2% 71 1.2% LAMU 51,830 0.4% 17 0.3% MACHAKOS 445,819 3.1% 186 3.2% MAKUENI 300,086 2.1% 129 2.2% MANDERA 121,005 0.8% 45 0.8% MARSABIT 104,408 0.7% 48 0.8% MERU 483,517 3.4% 150 2.5% MIGORI 287,702 2.0% 104 1.8% MOMBASA 412,602 2.9% 171 2.9% MURANGA 457,052 3.2% 200 3.4% See appended methodology 5 Quality Control Measures ! Supervisors accompanies the interviewer to as an observer (at least 20%) ! Physical back checks – field manager revisits respondents in the sample (at least 15% of sample) ! Telephonic call backs from Ipsos call center ‐ (40% respondents) ! Data checks (interview start time & end times, logic, etc) 6 Respondent demographic profiles 7 Demographic Profile Religion Nairobi 10% Region Coast 9% Catholic 24% Nyanza 13% Rift Valley 25% Catholic Charismatic 2% North Eastern 5% Mainstream Protestant Eastern 15% (ACK, Methodist, Presbyter 36% ian, AIC) Central 13% Western 10% SDA 7% Female 51% Evangelical 10% Gender Male 49% Other Christian 7% 18 - 24 28% 25 - 34 29% Muslim 10% Age 35 - 44 18% 45+ 25% Others 2% Setting Urban 37% Not Stated 1% Rural 63% Nationality Kenyans 100% Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 8 Approval Ratings 9 Approval Ratings of Officials/Institutions Over the Last Three Months - % saying “highly approve”/”somewhat approve”: by total The Media 85% President Mwai Kibaki 85% Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) 81% Chief Justice 73% Coalition Government 72% The Judiciary 68% Prime Minister Raila Odinga 66% Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka 55% The Police 42% Parliament 41% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895) 10 Locality-Level Issues 11 “What would you say is the most serious problem facing your locality today?” by total High cost of living 30% Lack of employment 23% Crime/ Insecurity 10% Poor leadership 9% Poor infrastructure 6% Lack of water 6% Corruption 5% Tribalism 2% Poverty 1% Election violence 1% Other 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895) 12 “What would you say is the most serious problem facing your locality today?” by Province High cost of living Lack of employment Crime/ Insecurity Poor leadership 60% 50% 44% 40% 37% 33% 30% 29% 30% 29% 30% 28% 29% 28% 25% 26% 23% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 20% 17% 15% 12% 11% 11% 10%9% 9% 9%9% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 0% Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Nyanza Rift Valley Western ‐10% Eastern Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895) 13 “What would you say is the most serious problem facing your locality today?” by supporters of the top 3 presidential candidates 60% High cost of living Lack of employment Crime/ Insecurity Poor leadership Corruption 39% 40% 31% 30% 29% 23% 23% 23% 21% 20% 10%9% 10%9% 10% 9% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5% 0% Total Musalia Mudavadi Raila Odinga (n=2723) Uhuru Kenyatta (n=287) (n=2377) ‐20% Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895) 14 “What do you believe is the main obstacle to development in your locality?” by total Selfish/bad/greedy leaders 22% Corruption 20% Government neglect/discrimination 14% Crime/insecurity 11% Tribalism/Ethnic tension/conflict 6% Inadequate water supply/irrigation 5% Laziness of locals 3% Disease/ill health 1% High population growth rate 1% Infertile soils 1% Hot climate 1% Witchcraft 1% International economic forces/factors 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895) 15 “What do you believe is the main obstacle to development in your locality?” by Province Selfish/bad/greedy leaders Corruption Government neglect/discrimination Crime/insecurity 60% Tribalism/Ethnic tension/conflict 50% 48% 40% 30% 30% 30% 26% 26% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 21% 20%20% 20% 20%20% 20% 16% 17% 17% 14% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 12% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 0% Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Nyanza Rift Valley Western Eastern Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895) 16 Electoral Environment 17 “How satisfied are you with the performance of the IEBC?”: by Total Somewhat satisfied/Very dissatisfied, DK/NR, 4% 7% Very satisfied/Some what satisfied, 90% Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 18 “How satisfied are you with the performance of the IEBC?”: by Total Very satisfied/Somewhat satisfied Somewhat satisfied/Very dissatisfied 100% 91% 88% 89% 80% 60% 40% 20% 8% 6% 7% 4% 3% 4% 0% Musalia Mudavadi Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta Base: Supporters of the top three candidates 19 “Regarding your intention to vote in the forthcoming election, which of the following statements best applies to you?”: by Total 100% 84% 80% 60% 40% 20% 10% 4% 1% 1% 0% I will vote no I probably will I will not vote no Probably will not DK matter what vote matter what vote Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895) 20 “How likely is it that election‐related violence will occur in your locality?” By Total + %s for Counties > national average DK, 6% Marsabit (n=53) 79% Makueni (n=144) 40% RTA/NR, 2% Kakamega (n=222) 38% Mombasa (n=181) 37% Very Garissa (n=99) 36% likely/Some Isiolo (n=29) 31% what Nairobi (n=619) 30% likely, 21% Homa Bay (n=135) 29% Nyeri (n=123) 29% Migori (n=100) 28% Very Kilifi (n=164) 26% unlikely/So Kisumu (n=164) 26% mewhat Mandera (n=81) 26% unlikely, 71 % Murang'a (n=164) 26% Vihiga (n=100) 26% Machakos (n=205) 24% Tharaka Nithi (n=50) 24% Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) Busia (n=102) 21% 21 Perceived direction the country has been taking by Total Staying about the same, 12% DK, 2% The right direction, 48% The wrong direction, 38% Base: All Respondents: (n = 5,895) 22 Perceptions of the country’s direction: by top 3 presidential candidates The right direction The wrong direction Staying about the same DK/RTA 60% 55% 54% 50% 48% 45% 42% 40% 38% 33% 31% 30% 20% 12% 13% 10% 10% 8% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% Total Musalia Mudavadi Raila Odinga (n=2723) Uhuru Kenyatta (n=287) (n=2377) Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 23 “Regarding the person you think is most suitable to be the next president, which of the following two statements in closest to your own view?” by top 3 presidential candidates 100% 87% 83% 80% 79% 80% 60% 40% 16% 16% 20% 13% 9% 6% 4% 4% 3% 0% Total Uhuru Kenyatta Raila Odinga Musalia Mudavadi The best choice for president should always be a person who is most capable of leadership and development for Kenya aa a whole regardless of his/her tribe. It is better to elect a president who does not come from a community that has held this office in the past so that the benefits of power are more widely shared among all Kenyans. NR Base: All Respondents (n=5,895) 24 Presidential Candidate & Political Party/Alliance Preference 25 ‘Regarding the person you think is most suitable to be the next president, which of the following two statements in closest to your own view?”: by perceived direction the country has been taking 100% 83% 84% 82% 83% 80% 60% 40% 20% 13% 12% 12% 13% 6% 4% 3% 4% 0% Total The right direction The wrong direction Staying about the same The best choice for president should always be a person who is most capable of leadership and development for Kenya aa a whole regardless of his/her tribe. It is better to elect a president who does not come from a community that has held this office in the past so that the benefits of power are more widely shared among all Kenyans.