DOCSLIB.ORG

Corelogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Corelogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis December 2011 CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis Howard Botts, PhD Wei Du, PhD Brady Foust, PhD Thomas Jeffery, PhD Executive Summary 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis As it has been noted by numerous scientists, risk analysts and other forecasters, 2011 proved to be a record-breaking year for natural catastrophes in the United States and around the world. Hurricanes, wildfires, tornados, earthquakes and various flooding events caused billions of dollars in property damage, put disaster readiness plans and emergency responders to the test in major U.S. urban areas, and resulted in a significant number of lost lives across the country. Now, in addition to reviewing the immediate structural, geographic and financial impact of the past year’s catastrophic events, it’s crucial to consider notable changes in natural hazard incidents as part of a longer-term perspective and evaluate the implications of these trends. One of the most noteworthy statistics to emerge from this annual natural hazard review is that 2011 was the most expensive and the deadliest hurricane season for the U.S. since 2008. Though only three named Atlantic storms made landfall, they caused at least a combined $8 billion in damage, primarily from flooding. In addition, the 2011 tornado season was the third most active since 1980. The 1,559 storms to date this year resulted in the deaths of 552 people, which amount to the combined total number of casualties over the previous ten years. While the 2011 wildfire season continued the trend of having fewer but larger wildfires, there was a significant geographic shift in home losses over the past year from California, which had a cooler and wetter-than-average fire season, to the drought-affected states of Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma. In fact, total burned wildfire acreage in California was down 90 percent in 2010-2011 compared to 2007-2008. At the same time, the Wallow fire in Arizona burned 469,000 acres and was the largest fire in the state’s history. Also important to note is that two non-western U.S. earthquakes occurred this year in Virginia and Oklahoma – events that startled many residents who believed earthquakes to be strictly a far west U.S. phenomenon. Though in reality earthquake activity in 2011 mirrored the long-running trend of quake concentration in the western U.S., where underlying geology and plate tectonics generate a more active seismic zone, the two unexpected events in the Midwest and Northeast caused a considerable stir among homeowners, insurers and many others affected by the quakes. The CoreLogic Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis provides an overview of the most significant catastrophic natural hazard events that took place in 2011, as well as a brief analysis of potential risk in the coming year and the implications of unexpected changes in natural hazard frequency, intensity and geographic patterns. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis HURRICANES Year in Review This year was the most expensive and deadliest hurricane season since 2008. While only SNAPSHOT three of the 18 named Atlantic Ocean storms struck the U.S. (Hurricane Irene, Tropical While the direct impact Storm Lee and Tropical Storm Don), those storms resulted in at least $8 billion in on New York City from damage and 45 people killed. Much of the property damage associated with the storms Hurricane Irene (a was a result of flooding from intense rainfall as opposed to wind or storm surge flooding. Category 1 hurricane) Overall, 2011 was the seventh most active hurricane season to date in terms of property was ultimately minimal, and life losses since tracking began in 1851. there are some important lessons to be learned from HURRICANE IRENE: The largest and most destructive storm of 2011, Hurricane Irene, this event. The evacuation made landfall over coastal North Carolina on August 27. The storm tracked northward order, affecting 370,000 along the Mid-Atlantic coast (moving over Virginia, Washington, D.C., Maryland, New residents, suggests the Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Vermont) causing city lacks confidence torrential rainfall and flooding across much of the northeastern U.S. Especially hard hit in the flood control infrastructure. In fact, were New York, New Jersey and Vermont, which experienced extensive flood damage. New York City does not According to the National Climatic Data Center, the total cost of the hurricane was more have sufficient capacity than $7.3 billion, of which the associated flood damage was about $2 billion. Comparing to defend itself from the flood damage over the past several years with the flood damage from Hurricane Irene (see storm surge associated Figure 1), the flood loss from this single hurricane ranks as the second most expensive in with catastrophic this region. hurricane events, which would be a storm Annual Flood Damage in Northeast and Hurricane Irene classified as Category 2 or 5 greater. With major tunnel and subway entrances only four feet above sea level, even a modest 4 hurricane-driven storm surge would result in Hurricane Irene significant inundation and NC, VA, MD, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT could easily lead to billions 3 in economic loss. 2 Flood Loss in $billions Flood Loss 1 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Water Year Figure 1 - Comparison of Historical Flood Losses and Irene (1999 hurricane flood losses were the result of Hurricane Floyd, with an estimated $4.5 billion in damages and 56 people killed.) Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission. 1 CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis TROPICAL STORM LEE: On the heels of Hurricane Irene, Tropical Storm Lee developed from a broad tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico on September 1, 2011. The storm was both large and slow moving, and because of these characteristics, drove heavy rainfall over southern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The storm then moved north toward the Mid-Atlantic U.S. and unleashed a second outpouring of intense precipitation over Pennsylvania and New York. Figure 2 shows the rainfall map for Tropical Storm Lee, produced by NASA. The satellite imagery clearly shows the five states listed above receiving the greatest amounts of precipitation, with some locations in Pennsylvania and New York accumulating 12 inches of rainfall. Flooding associated with the heavy Tropical Storm Lee precipitation caused significant property damage in the affected areas, estimated to be more than $1 billion. Implications and Projections Given the extent of property damage left in the wake of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, particularly in what might be considered unlikely and underprepared regions of Figure 2 – Precipitation Map the U.S., many risk experts from Tropical Storm Lee feel it’s time to rethink national flood policies around the country and especially in major metropolitan hubs like New York City. There are several key lessons to be taken away from the impact of Tropical Storm Lee, including: ► Large-sized and slow-moving tropical storms originating from the Gulf of Mexico can carry significant precipitation and lead to severe flooding and property damage in the Northeast. ► Short-time intervals between two severe weather systems can exacerbate flooding. Just one week prior to Tropical Storm Lee, Hurricane Irene had soaked the northeastern region of the country. Tropical Storm Lee then poured huge amounts of water on top of the already saturated Northeast, resulting in elevated levels of flooding. ► Property loss associated with flooding from Tropical Storm Lee for the five principal states affected was ranked as the fifth highest based on records over the past 16 years. Even though Lee was not an extreme event, conditions were present that combined to result in extensive damage and destruction. 2 ©2011 CoreLogic, Inc. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis FLOODING Year in Review SNAPSHOT In 2011, there were a number of climate disaster events across the U.S. that each resulted The U.S. Army Corps of in flood losses exceeding $1 billion, according to data from the National Climate Data Engineers opened the Center (NCDC): Morganza spillway in ► Tropical Storm Lee, September 2011, caused an estimated $1 billion in flood Louisiana on May 14, 2011 damage, with particularly severe impact on the states of Pennsylvania and New York. to divert record-high Mississippi River water ► Hurricane Irene, August 2011, caused an estimated $2 billion in flood damage (out levels away from densely of $7.3 billion in total damage). populated metro areas like Baton Rouge and ► In the summer of 2011, the melting of an above-average snowpack across the New Orleans. The spillway northern Rocky Mountains combined with abnormally high precipitation caused was intended to relieve the Missouri and Souris rivers to swell beyond their banks across the upper pressure on downstream Midwest. The resulting flooding caused an estimated $2 billion in losses. levees, sparing hundreds of thousands of homes ► In the spring and summer of 2011, record-breaking rainfall in the Ohio Valley (nearly as well as numerous oil 300 percent over normal precipitation amounts) combined with melting snowpack refineries and chemical caused historical flooding along the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Flood loss plants along the estimates from the Mississippi River inundation are estimated to be $4 billion. Mississippi River. CoreLogic analysis at the time showed that Moving Average Trend Analysis of U.S. Flood Losses many homes in otherwise $50.00 low-risk zones were suddenly in the path of $45.00 Actual Flood Losses floodwaters and that a $40.00 total of 21,272 homes were Moving Average Trend of Flood Losses at risk of being fully or $35.00 partially inundated by the $30.00 floodwaters flowing down from the Atchafalaya $25.00 Basin.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Program Agenda (Updated 10 October 2011) National Weather
    Program Agenda (Updated 10 October 2011) changes or additions from previous update in red National Weather Association 36th Annual Meeting Wynfrey Hotel, Birmingham, Alabama October 15-20, 2011 Theme: The End Game - From Research and Technology to Best Forecast and Response See the main meeting page http://www.nwas.org/meetings/nwa2011/ for information on the meeting hotel, exhibits, sponsorships and registration Authors, please inform the Program Committee at [email protected] for any corrections or changes required in the listing of your presentations or abstracts as soon as possible. This agenda will be updated periodically as changes occur. Instructions for uploading your presentation to the FTP site can be found here. All presenters please read the presentation tips which explain the AV systems, poster board sizes and provide suggestions for good presentations. All activities will be held in the Wynfrey Hotel unless otherwise noted. Please check in at the NWA Information and Registration desk at the Wynfrey Hotel earliest to receive nametags, program and the most current information. Saturday, October 15 10:00am NWA Aviation Workshop at the Southern Museum of Flight. Contact Terry Lankford [email protected] for more information. The workshop is from 10 am until 1 pm. 10:00am NWA WeatherFest at the McWane Science Center. Contact James-Paul Dice [email protected] for more information. The event is from 10 am until 2 pm. 11:00am NWA Ninth Annual Scholarship Golf Outing, Bent Brook Golf Course, sponsored by Baron Services. Contact Betsy Kling [email protected] for more information or to sign-up.
    [Show full text]
  • 3.5 an Overview of the 28 April 2014 Tornado Outbreak in the Tennessee Valley
    3.5 An Overview of the 28 April 2014 Tornado Outbreak in the Tennessee Valley Christopher B. Darden, Brian C. Carcione, David J. Nadler, Kristopher D. White National Weather Service, Huntsville, AL Bryce R. Williams Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 1. Introduction The synoptic pattern at 0000 UTC on 29 Although 2014 is generally considered April (during the heart of the event) was marked to be an overall below-normal severe weather by a closed low pressure area centered over year, late April 2014 was marked by a typically- southeastern Nebraska at 500 hPa (Figure 3), active period across the southeastern United resulting in a negatively-tilted trough across the States, including a record rainfall event along the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. East of the Gulf Coast on 29 April, and a regional tornado low, modest ridging created diffluent flow from outbreak on 28-29 April. That tornado outbreak the Tennessee Valley into the eastern Great affected primarily Mississippi (including an EF- Lakes. 4 tornado which struck the town of Louisville, The surface map from 0000 UTC 29 MS) and Alabama, but also impacted Tennessee April (Figure 4) indicated a cyclone directly and western Georgia (Figure 1). under its 500 hPa counterpart with an occluded The National Weather Service weather front extending eastward across Iowa into central forecast office (WFO) in Huntsville, Alabama Illinois. The primary cold front extended covers 11 counties in northern Alabama and southward along the Mississippi River into three counties in southern Tennessee. Within Louisiana, then westward into south Texas.
    [Show full text]
  • U.S. Violent Tornadoes Relative to the Position of the 850-Mb
    U.S. VIOLENT TORNADOES RELATIVE TO THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB JET Chris Broyles1, Corey K. Potvin 2, Casey Crosbie3, Robert M. Rabin4, Patrick Skinner5 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma 2 Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma 3 NOAA/NWS/CWSU, Indianapolis, Indiana 4 National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma 5 Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma Abstract The Violent Tornado Webpage from the Storm Prediction Center has been used to obtain data for 182 events (404 violent tornadoes) in which an F4-F5 or EF4-EF5 tornado occurred in the United States from 1950 to 2014. The position of each violent tornado was recorded on a gridded plot compared to the 850 mb jet center within 90 minutes of the violent tornado. The position of each 850 mb jet was determined using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from 1979 to 2014 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis from 1950 to 1978. Plots are shown of the position of each violent tornado relative to the center of the 850 mb low-level jet. The United States was divided into four parts and the plots are available for the southern Plains, northern Plains, northeastern U.S. and southeastern U.S with a division between east and west at the Mississippi River. Great Plains violent tornadoes clustered around a center about 130 statute miles to the left and slightly ahead of the low-level jet center while eastern U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Observational Analysis of the Interaction Between a Baroclinic Boundary and Supercell Storms on 27 April 2011
    OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND SUPERCELL STORMS ON 27 APRIL 2011 by ADAM THOMAS SHERRER A THESIS Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Atmospheric Science to The School of Graduate Studies of The University of Alabama in Huntsville HUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA 2014 ABSTRACT The School of Graduate Studies The University of Alabama in Huntsville Degree Master of Science College/Dept. Science/Atmospheric Science Name of Candidate Adam Sherrer Title Observational Analysis of the Interaction Between a Baroclinic Boundary and Supercell Storms on 27 April 2011 A thermal boundary developed during the morning to early afternoon hours on 27 April as a result of rainfall evaporation and shading from reoccurring deep convection. This boundary propagated to the north during the late afternoon to evening hours. The presence of the boundary produced an area more conducive for the formation of strong violent tornadoes through several processes. These processes included the production of horizontally generated baroclinic vorticity, increased values in storm- relative helicity, and decreasing lifting condensation level heights. Five supercell storms formed near and/or propagated alongside this boundary. Supercells that interacted with this boundary typically produced significant tornadic damage over long distances. Two of these supercells formed to the south (warm) side of the boundary and produced a tornado prior to crossing to the north (cool) side of the boundary. These two storms exhibited changes in appearance, intensity, and structure. Two other supercells formed well south of the boundary. These two storms remained relatively weak until they interacted with the boundary.
    [Show full text]
  • United States April & May 2011 Severe Weather Outbreaks
    Impact Forecasting United States April & May 2011 Severe Weather Outbreaks June 22, 2011 Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 April 3-5, 2011 3 April 8-11, 2011 5 April 14-16, 2011 8 April 19-21, 2011 13 April 22-28, 2011 15 May 9-13, 2011 26 May 21-27, 2011 28 May 28-June 1, 2011 36 Notable Severe Weather Facts: April 1 - June 1, 2011 39 Additional Commentary: Why so many tornado deaths? 41 Appendix A: Historical U.S. Tornado Statistics 43 Appendix B: Costliest U.S. Tornadoes Since 1950 44 Appendix C: Enhanced Fujita Scale 45 Appendix D: Severe Weather Terminology 46 Impact Forecasting | U.S. April & May 2011 Severe Weather Outbreaks Event Recap Report 1 Executive Summary An extremely active stretch of severe weather occurred across areas east of the Rocky Mountains during a period between early April and June 1. At least eight separate timeframes saw widespread severe weather activity – five of which were billion dollar (USD) outbreaks. Of the eight timeframes examined in this report, the two most notable stretches occurred between April 22-28 and May 21-27: The late-April stretch saw the largest tornado outbreak in world history occur (334 separate tornado touchdowns), which led to catastrophic damage throughout the Southeast and the Tennessee Valley. The city of Tuscaloosa, Alabama took a direct hit from a high-end EF-4 tornado that caused widespread devastation. At least three EF-5 tornadoes touched down during this outbreak. The late-May stretch was highlighted by an outbreak that spawned a massive EF-5 tornado that destroyed a large section of Joplin, Missouri.
    [Show full text]
  • Mesoscale and Stormscale Ingredients of Tornadic Supercells Producing Long-Track Tornadoes in the 2011 Alabama Super Outbreak
    MESOSCALE AND STORMSCALE INGREDIENTS OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LONG-TRACK TORNADOES IN THE 2011 ALABAMA SUPER OUTBREAK BY SAMANTHA L. CHIU THESIS Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Atmospheric Science in the Graduate College of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2013 Urbana, Illinois Advisers: Professor Emeritus Robert B. Wilhelmson Dr. Brian F. Jewett ABSTRACT This study focuses on the environmental and stormscale dynamics of supercells that produce long-track tornadoes, with modeling emphasis on the central Alabama storms from April 27, 2011 - part of the 2011 Super Outbreak. While most of the 204 tornadoes produced on this day were weaker and short-lived, this outbreak produced 5 tornadoes in Alabama alone whose path-length exceeded 50 documented miles. The results of numerical simulations have been inspected for both environmental and stormscale contributions that make possible the formation and maintenance of such long–track tornadoes. A two-pronged approach has been undertaken, utilizing both ideal and case study simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting [WRF] Model. Ideal simulations are designed to isolate the role of the local storm environment, such as instability and shear, to long-track tornadic storm structure. Properties of simulated soundings, for instance hodograph length and curvature, 0-1km storm relative helicity [SRH], 0-3km SRH and convective available potential energy [CAPE] properties are compared to idealized soundings described by Adlerman and Droegemeier (2005) in an effort to identify properties conducive to storms with non-cycling (sustained) mesocyclones. 200m horizontal grid spacing simulations have been initialized with the 18 UTC Birmingham/Alabaster, Alabama [KBMX] soundings, taken from an area directly hit by the day’s storms.
    [Show full text]
  • P7.114. Extreme Damage Incidents in the 27 April 2011 Tornado Superoutbreak
    P7.114. EXTREME DAMAGE INCIDENTS IN THE 27 APRIL 2011 TORNADO SUPEROUTBREAK Eugene W. McCaul, Jr.1,Kevin R. Knupp2, Chris Darden3, and Kevin Laws4 1. Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 2. University of Alabama Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 3. NOAA National Weather Service, Huntsville, AL 4. NOAA National Weather Service, Birmingham, AL 1. INTRODUCTION The digital photographic documentation was ob- On 27 April 2011, a tornado superoutbreak tained during ground and aerial surveys conducted as containing at least 11 EF4 and 4 EF5 tornadoes swept soon as possible after the superoutbreak. Owing to through the Southeastern and Eastern United States, long-lasting power outages, highway obstructions by de- wreaking death and destruction comparable to the bris, remote locations of damage, fuel shortages, and worst ever documented in the historical record. The the sheer amount and scope of the damage, not all death toll of 319 directly attributable to the tornadoes ground surveys could be completed while damage re- exceeds even that of the ”Jumbo” Outbreak of 3-4 mained undisturbed by power restoration and general April 1974. Total property losses are believed to have recovery operations. Nevertheless, all photos presented exceeded $10 billion. In Alabama, the epicenter of the herein are believed to be representative of actual dam- outbreak, some 10 million cu. yd. of debris had to be ages caused by the tornadoes. Additional information cleared after the storms, and 1.06% of the state’s total was obtained from interviews with tornado survivors area was damaged by tornadoes. and eyewitnesses, to verify that observed damage was With early Spring dynamics superimposed on late indeed caused by tornadoes, and to clarify the manner Spring thermodynamics, the volatile weather scenario in which the damage occurred.
    [Show full text]
  • NEWSLETTER National Weather Association No
    NEWSLETTER National Weather Association No. 11 – 8 August 2011 NWA 36th Annual Meeting: Oct. 15-20, Birmingham, Ala. “The End Game - From Research and Technology to Best Forecast and Response” Saturday, October 15 10 am - 1 p.m. NWA Aviation Workshop at the Southern 1 - 7 pm Registration and Information Desk Open Museum of Flight. Contact Terry Lankford [email protected] for more information. 1 pm Exhibit Room Setup: Riverchase Ballroom 10 am - 2 p.m. NWA WeatherFest at the McWane Science Center. Contact James-Paul Dice [email protected] for more information. 11 am NWA 9th Annual Scholarship Golf Outing at Bent Brook Golf Course - sponsored by Baron Services. For more information or to sign up, Proud sponsor of the contact Betsy Kling ([email protected]). Tee times at 11:30 am and 12:30 pm. 9th Annual Scholarship Golf Outing Sunday, October 16: Broadcasters Workshop ~ Wynfrey ABC 8:30 am Welcoming Remarks Dr. Patrick S. Market, NWA President, University of 10 am Shelter Seeking Behavior of Tuscaloosa Residents Missouri at Columbia, Columbia, MO for a Future Tornado Event Jason C. Senkbeil, University of Alabama, 8:35 am Opening Remarks Tuscaloosa, AL Nick Walker, The Weather Channel and NWA Broadcast Meteorology Committee Chair, Atlanta, GA and 10:15 am Coffee Break; Exhibits Open Mike Goldberg, WSET-TV Lynchburg, VA and NWA 10:45 am Restoring Power After the Tornadoes: Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Chair Understanding Outages and That Confusing 8:45 am Welcome to Birmingham Electric-Utility Jargon James Spann, Chief Meteorologist, Pam Boyd, Storm Center Director, Alabama Power WBMA-TV, Birmingham, AL Company, Birmingham, AL 9 am Introduction to Tornado Session 11 am Social Media and its Role in Saving Lives in the Dr.
    [Show full text]
  • Rebuttals Tornadoes
    Claim: Global warming is causing more and stronger tornadoes REBUTTAL Tornadoes are failing to follow “global warming” based predictions. Strong tornadoes have seen a drop in frequency since the 1950s. The years 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 all saw below average to near record low tornado counts in the U.S. since records began in 1954. 2017 rebounded only to the long-term mean while 2018 activity has returned to well below the 25th percentile. This lull followed a very active and deadly strong La Nina of 2010/11, which like the strong La Nina of 1973/74 produced record setting and very deadly outbreaks of tornadoes. When an amplified La Nina like jet stream pattern developed in the spring of 2019, a very active period raised the seasonal total to above the 50th percentile for the first time in years. Population growth and expansion outside urban areas have exposed more people to the tornadoes that once roamed through open fields. Tornado detection has improved with the addition of NEXRAD, the growth of the trained spotter networks, storm chasers armed with cellular data and imagery as well as the proliferation of cell phone cameras and social media. This shows up most in the weak EF0 tornado count but for storms from moderate EF1 to strong EF 3+ intensity, the trend has been down despite improved detection. Tornadoes like most all weather extremes are driven by natural factors with active seasons strongly correlated with stronger La Nina events and the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which favors more frequent and stronger La Ninas.
    [Show full text]
  • SEDAAG Executive Committee SEDAAG Steering Committee
    SEDAAG Executive Committee President: Doug Gamble, UNC Wilmington Vice President: Ron Kalafsky, University of Tennessee Treasurer: Heidi Lannon, Santa Fe College Secretary: Josh Inwood, University of Tennessee Councilor: Derek Alderman, University of Tennessee Past President: Russ Ivy, Florida Atlantic University SEDAAG Steering Committee Members of the Executive Committee (see above) Editors, Southeastern Geographer : Carl Andy Reese and David Cochran, University of Southern Mississippi Student Representative: Liz Shockey, UNC Charlotte State Representatives: Alabama Jennifer Rahn, Samford Florida Chris Meindl, USF- St. Petersburg Georgia Katherine Hankins, Georgia State Kentucky Daehyn Kim, University of Kentucky Mississippi Kathleen Sherman-Morris, Mississippi State North Carolina Michael Lewis, UNC Greensboro South Carolina Christa Ann Smith, Clemson University Tennessee Micheline van Riemsdijk, Tennessee Virginia Dawn Bowen, University of Mary Washington West Virginia Robert Kruse, West Liberty University SEDAAG 2012 Local Arrangements Committee Bill Graves University of North Carolina at Charlotte Barbara John University of North Carolina at Charlotte Tyrel Moore University of North Carolina at Charlotte Jonathan Kozar University of North Carolina at Charlotte Liz Shockey University of North Carolina at Charlotte Saskia van de Gevel Appalachian State University Officers, Association of American Geographers President: Eric Sheppard, University of Minnesota Vice President: Julie Winkler, Michigan State University Secretary: Jenny
    [Show full text]
  • Claim: Global Warming Is Causing More and Stronger Tornadoes
    Claim: Global warming is causing more and stronger tornadoes REBUTTAL Tornadoes are failing to follow “global warming” predictions. Big tornadoes have seen a drop in frequency since the 1950s. The years 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 all saw below average to near record low tornado counts in the U.S. since records began in 1954. 2017 to date has rebounded only to the long-term mean. This lull followed a very active and deadly strong La Nina of 2010/11, which like the strong La Nina of 1973/74 produced record setting and very deadly outbreaks of tornadoes. Population growth and expansion outside urban areas have exposed more people to the tornadoes that once roamed through open fields. Tornado detection has improved with the addition of NEXRAD, the growth of the trained spotter networks, storm chasers armed with cellular data and imagery and the proliferation of cell phone cameras and social media. This shows up most in the weak EF0 tornado count but for storms from moderate EF1 to strong EF 3+ intensity, the trend has been flat to down despite improved detection. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Storm Prediction Center Source: Storm Prediction Center Source: Storm Prediction Center Source: Storm Prediction Center Tornado outbreaks of significance occur most frequently in La Nina years, which are favored when the Pacific is cold as it was in the 1950s to the early 1970s and more recently 1999, 2008, 2010 and 2011. Source: Storm Prediction Center The death toll in the strong La Nina of 2011 was the highest since the “Superoutbreak” in the strong La Nina year of 1974.
    [Show full text]
  • The 2011 Super Outbreak: a Huntsville Perspective and Implications for Future Events
    The 2011 Super Outbreak: A Huntsville Perspective and Implications for Future Events Chris Darden NOAA / National Weather Service Huntsville, Alabama On April 27, 2011, a tornado outbreak unprecedented in modern times occurred across a large portion of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley regions. By the time the event was over, April 27 th had become the deadliest tornado day in the United States since the infamous Tri-State Outbreak of March 18, 1925. For this presentation, I will focus on the events as they unfolded across the Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Huntsville (HUN), AL County Warning Area (CWA). WFO Huntsville covers 11 counties in north Alabama and 3 counties in southern Tennessee. An analysis of the forecasts and outlooks leading up to the event, along with a review of the tornado climatology for the Huntsville region will be conducted. However, much of the time will be spent covering the outbreak itself from the planning and decision support phase, to the critical warning decision making process, to the days following the outbreak. As the events of April 27 th unfolded, three separate and very different episodes of severe weather impacted the region. Each of these “episodes” produced tornadoes, and the timing and “back to back” nature of these events complicated many facets of community planning and decision making such as dismissal policies for schools and businesses. To put some context into how these separate severe weather episodes impacted the region from the pre-dawn hours until late in the evening on the 27 th , WFO HUN issued a total of 92 tornado warnings with an average lead time in excess of 20 minutes.
    [Show full text]