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WINGX Analysis www.wingx-advance.com AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY TRACKER INSIGHT Issue: December 2016 Hamburg, January 11th, 2017 © 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation Executive Summary: December 2016 . There were 32,816 business jet departures in Europe in December 2016, 3.8% up YOY, taking the FY 2016 trend to +1.5%, >7,000 additional business jet flights compared to 2015. December’s growth in business jet activity was relatively strong: a net increase of 1,215 flights, 277 additional from France, up 6%. Italy and Switzerland were also up 6%, and business jet flights from Spain were up by 8% YOY. AOC missions - 58% of all flights and up 7% YOY - were again the driving force in business jet activity growth. Double digit growth in AOC departures in 3 of the top 5 markets. Also 6% growth in AOC flights from Russia, +15% from Turkey. Arrivals into Europe this month were well up from Middle East and West Africa, down on transatlantic routes and from China. For FY 2016, flights from North America were up 3%. Within Europe, Eastern Europe had most growth this year. • Super-Light, Light, Very-Light and Super-Mid business jets had YOY growth close to 10% in December, with the latter 2 sustaining 10% trend for FY 2016. Heavy Jet activity was also up this month. The 2 declining segments were Midsize and Entry-Level. • Bombardier and Embraer fleets had largest growth in YOY activity. Cessna activity was up 2% in December, flat for FY 2016. Dassault jet flight hours were down 8% in December, trailing by 6% for FY. Dassault AOC flights -7% in December. • Busiest business jet, Citation Excel/XLS, flew 3,662 missions in December, up 9% YOY. Global Express activity was up >15%. In AOC flights, Falcon 900 activity fell 5%, Falcon 2000 -15%. Falcon 7X Owner flights were down by 8% YOY. • Conspicuous growth in business jet departures from Geneva and Nice: +24% YOY. Largely the growth was from AOC demand, also notable at Vnukovo. Contrastingly, business jet departures from Sheremetyevo were down >1/3. © 2016 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue 5/11/2017 2 Table of Contents: December 2016 Insights Trending Section 1: Macro market trends December saw relatively strong growth. Section 2: Origins & Destinations Middle East was well up, North America arrivals down. Section 3: Types of Trip Big growth in Charter & Fractional flights. Section 4: OEM Competition Bombardier and Embraer flights getting lots of growth. Section 5: Aircraft Segments Notable increase in Super-light and Light jet flights. Section 6: Aircraft Types Strong growth for Global Express, Phenom 300, also CJ2. Section 7: Airports Resurgence of flights at Vnukovo, Geneva, Le Bourget. © 2016 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue5/11/2017 3 1. Macro market trends © 2016 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue5/11/2017 4 Activity by Aircraft Fleet Category Slight decline this month, but compelling increase in AOC business jet sectors, up 7% YOY, offsetting the 1% slide in Owner flights. Both Prop and Piston activity was down. Departures December 2016 Private Commercial [AOC] Market share YOY: Private YOY: AOC YOY: Total Business Jet 41,0% 59,0% 32.816 62,6% -0,6% 7,2% 3,8% Business Turboprop 59,3% 40,7% 11.408 21,8% -1,8% -1,9% -1,8% Business Piston 77,6% 22,4% 8.195 15,6% -12,1% -19,6% -13,9% Total 50,7% 49,3% 52.419 100,0% -3,9% 3,0% -0,6% 100% Note: . The WINGX INSIGHT includes commercial (AOC) flights and non-commercial (private) flights, except Origin= Destination Flights [mainly Training flights]. AOC flights include Charter as well as special flights (government, air ambulance). Non AOC flights correspond only to owner (private) flights. © 2017 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue 5/11/2017 5 Flight departures across Europe Strong growth overall, particularly in West Europe, notably France, UK, Spain, Italy, Switzerland. Also 6% growth in Russia, and 13% YOY growth in Turkey. Total Europe: +3,8% December 2016 YOY FI 24,0% 14,5% 0,3% IS RU NO EE 5,5% -14,5% 2,9% LA -19,8% SE LT -0,6% -16,3% DK -14,6% 8,8% -10,8% 11,3% BY IE 3,7% D UK NL PL BE 0,5% -3,1% UA 6,1% 12,1% LU CZ 16,4% SA MD -8,8% A HG -63,9% CH -1,7% -20,3% 5,9% 0,0% 5,9% RO HR RS F 16,1% 28,6% BA I -5,3% -23,3% BG 5,7% TR PT 8,4% GR 13,4% -5,4% ES -0,8% CY 25,5% MA 26,1% © 2016 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue 5/11/2017 6 Relative impact of key country markets All the big markets except Germany saw an increase in YOY activity. 277 additional flights out of France, and a further 200 from small markets. UK was the busiest market. Departures 35.000 32.816 5.201 30.000 5.010 25.000 4.404 20.000 2.814 2.350 15.000 1.749 1.308 1.263 1.263 10.000 659 632 511 437 396 382 4.437 5.000 0 Total UK France Germany Switzerland Italy Spain Turkey Russia Austria Belgium Sweden Netherlands Czech Ukraine Ireland Other [29] [December Republic 2016] % of total 100,0% 100 15,8% 15,3% 13,4% 13,5% 8,6% 7,2% 10 5,3% 4,0% 3,8% 3,8% 2,0% 1,9% 1,6% 1,3% 1,2% 1,2% 0 YOY growth [(+/-) departures] 1.400 1.215 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 277 184 200 200 158 127 136 155 66 38 18 47 2 31 0 -22 -62 -200 -140 © 2016 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation 5/11/2017 7 Year to Date analysis of departures December increase of 1215 flights concludes a relatively strong H2 and a FY 2016 trend of +1.5%, 7045 more business jet departures than in FY 2015. +1,5% 7.045 491.339 484.294 1.050 1.330 2.208 2.158 599 519 913 1.215 -788 -6 -712 -1.441 Δ Jan Δ Feb Δ Mar Δ Apr Δ May Δ Jun Δ Jul Δ Aug Δ Sep Δ Oct Δ Nov Δ Dec Δ Total YTD 2015 YTD 2016 © 2016 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue5/11/2017 8 How did December 2016 compare to previous years? Business jet flights in December 2016 were 11% fewer than in the pre-crisis peak December, but higher than in any December since 2011. December Departures 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 YOY growth 2006 33.566 12,8% 2007 36.732 9,4% 2008 31.041 -15,5% 2009 32.967 6,2% 2010 36.147 9,6% 2011 34.290 -5,1% -10,7% 2012 32.312 -5,8% 2013 32.551 1,2% 2014 32.124 -1,3% 2015 31.601 -1,6% 2016 32.816 3,8% Ø 33.286 © 2016 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue5/11/2017 9 The long-term businss aviation activity cycle Total business aviation activity has flat-lined in the last year, although business jet flights are clearly recovering, in contrast to fast-falling L12M trend in Prop activity. Departures per month Last 12 months growth [in %] 90.000 16 14 80.000 12 10 70.000 8 6 60.000 4 2 50.000 0 -2 40.000 -4 -6 30.000 -8 20.000 -10 -12 10.000 -14 -16 0 -18 Start: Jan 2007 End: December 2016 Total departures [y-axis, left hand side] Last 12 months trend: Total deps [y-axis, right hand side] Last 12 months trend: Jets only [y-axis, right hand side] Last 12 months trend: Propeller only [y-axis, right hand side] © 2017 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue5/11/2017 10 Business Jet flights only Small jet activity has continued steady growth trend, now around 4% for L12M. Large jet activity has steadied just >0%. Decline in Medium jet activity continues, though ameliorating. JETS ONLY Departures per month Last 12 months growth [in %] 60.000 20 55.000 15 50.000 10 45.000 40.000 5 35.000 0 30.000 -5 25.000 20.000 -10 15.000 -15 10.000 -20 5.000 -25 0 Start: Jan 2007 End: December 2016 Total Jet departures [y-axis, left hand side] Last 12 months trend: Large Jets [y-axis, right hand side] Last 12 months trend: Medium Jets [y-axis, right hand side] Last 12 months trend: Small Jets [y-axis, right hand side] © 2017 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue5/11/2017 11 Flight hours development in the last 24 months There were 55K flight hours operated in December, a sequential month decline but a 3.3% YOY increase, boosted by 5% increase in AOC flight hours. Flight Hours [in thds.] 100 87,1 89,6 81,9 81,2 78,4 76,9 80 72,3 72,5 76,1 73,4 68,5 69,4 61,8 61,0 59,0 60,3 57,2 58,8 55,0 60 53,0 50,7 49,7 52,0 53,2 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 vs 2015 2014 2015 4,7% 4,8% 5 2,2% 2,8% 2,9% 3,3% 0,4% 1,2% 0 -1,3% -0,9% -5 -2,9% -4,3% AOC flight hours 10 8,5% 4,9% 5,4% 4,7% 5,0% 5 3,8% 2,5% 2,6% 3,0% 0,3% 0 -2,0% -5 -3,8% Private flight hours 4,5% 5 0,4% 0,6% 0,9% 1,3% 0 -0,4% -0,7% -5 -3,1% -2,2% -4,8% -4,8% -4,2% © 2016 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue 5/11/2017 12 Top country markets activity in December YOY UK and France were the busiest business jet markets in December, both growing >3%.
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