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Appendix C Aviation Activity Forecast – Silver Comet Field at Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport

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APPENDIX C AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST – SILVER COMET FIELD AT PAULDING NORTHWEST ATLANTA AIRPORT SILVER COMET FIELD AT PAULDING NORTHWEST ATLANTA AIRPORT Aviation Activity Forecast This aviation activity forecast is prepared in conjunction with the Environmental Assessment (“EA”) being conducted to assess the potential effects associated with the proposed Part 139 certification and other airport improvement projects at Silver Comet Field at the Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport ( the “Airport” or “KPUJ”). The Airport is currently a public use, general aviation airport located 24 miles northwest of Atlanta, officially opened in late 2008 with a 5,505 foot runway, the culmination of construction that began in mid-2006. Its 23,000 square foot state-of-the-art terminal building was completed in late 2009. The terminal facility has only a single boarding gate, and Paulding County has no plans to expand the facility. The Airport is owned by Paulding County and is administered through the Paulding County Airport Authority (PCAA). The Airport sustained significant damage in a March, 2012 EF-3 tornado. The terminal sustained roof and window damage. A large hangar was destroyed, and 18 of the 23 aircraft based at the Airport were destroyed. Repairs to the hangar and terminal were completed in the Fall of 2012. In addition to the Part 139 project, the airport improvement projects involve among other things, extending the runways and widening the taxiways. In October, 2013 the Airport entered into an agreement with Propeller Investments to manage the terminal building. Propeller Investments has initiated talks with carriers regarding potential commercial service at the Airport. The company is also pursuing the development of aviation-related businesses adjacent to the Airport. The types of business being pursued include maintenance/repair/overhaul enterprises, completion centers, and small companies related to the aviation and aerospace industries. The forecasts of aviation activity developed in this document will be used as input to the EA. Forecasts will be presented for the current year, 2014, the year in which the proposed projects will be implemented, 2015, and for five years after implementation, 2020, consistent with other recent EA’s involving Part 139 certification1. Data for this analysis was obtained from several sources. Primary data sources providing information on aircraft and operations activity at the Airport were referenced. Originating passenger data for Hartsfield- 1 Final Environmental Assessment for Snohomish County Airport, Paine Field, September 2012. Page 1 of 28 Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) was reviewed. Socioeconomic data on Paulding County, the State of Georgia and the United States was analyzed. Among the primary sources for Airport activity and ATL originating passengers and socioeconomic were: • 2014 FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) • FAA Enhanced Traffic Management System Counts (ETMSC) • GCR, Inc. • Airport Fixed Base Operator (FBO), Paulding Jet Center • Woods & Poole Economics Conversations were also conducted with representatives from numerous agencies and organizations affiliated with the Airport in order to obtain information on the history, plans for, and expectations of the Airport. These contacts provided insight and data for the analysis. Among these agencies and organizations were: Airport Director Paulding County Airport Authority (PCAA) Airport FBO Hawk Aviation Flight School Owners of Airport based aircraft Paulding Economic Development Propeller Investments LLC Paulding Chamber of Commerce FAA Southern Region Paulding Aerospace Alliance Airport Military Liaison Allegiant Air 1.0 Silver Comet Field at Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport The Airport has a 5,505 foot runway, soon to be increased to a useable length of 6,005 feet. There is a 23,000 square foot terminal for general aviation and commercial service, a canopy for passenger drop off, easy ramp access, a single boarding gate, and large open meeting rooms. The Airport has over 360,000 square feet of concrete ramp space, with hangars and tiedowns for all size aircraft that might operate at KPUJ. All of the hangar facilities are new, given that the Airport opened in 2008 and many facilities were rebuilt after the 2012 tornado. The fixed base operator (FBO), Paulding Jet Center, offers fueling services, and courtesy services such as rental cars, limousine service, catering and valet service. The FBO maintains low fuel prices relative to other airports in the area which attracts activity to the airport. Flight planning and weather reports are available. Page 2 of 28 There are several other general aviation airports within 40 miles of KPUJ. These are listed in Table 1.1. Table 1.1 Other General Aviation Facilities Near Silver Comet Field at Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport Airport Code Miles Longest Tower2 Based Annual from Runway2 Aircraft2 Operations2 KPUJ1 Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport KPUJ - 5,505 ft. x 100 ft. No 14 10,000 Cartersville Airport KVPC 15 5,760 ft. x 100 ft. No 146 50,500 Cobb County McCollum Field KRYY 21 6,295 ft. x 100 ft. Yes 146 62,063 Fulton County Airport KFTY 25 5,797 ft. x 100 ft. Yes 101 50,291 DeKalb-Peachtree Airport KPDK 39 6,001 ft. x 100 ft. Yes 426 146,146 Source: 1. MapQuest 2. www.airnav.com Owners of based aircraft at KPUJ identified several factors that attract them there rather than to other airports in the area; location, no congestion (ground traffic, air space, runways), brand new and well-built facilities, instrument landing system (ILS), high intensity lighting, ability to have unshared hangar space, lower fuel prices, lower hangar rates, and a close-knit community atmosphere. The lack of airspace congestion and the availability of ILS also attract training activity from flight schools and flying clubs in the area. Flying clubs from Georgia Tech and Lockheed Martin use the facility for training as do flying schools from the nearby airports. Other general aviation airports are not seen as competitors likely to draw activity away from KPUJ in the near future because many of the factors identified as positive for KPUJ (no congestion, lower fees, newer facilities) will not decline over that time, and those identified as negatives at other facilities (congestion, higher fees, older facilities) are not likely to improve sufficiently. 2.0 Area Socioeconomics Paulding County is one of the fastest growing counties in Georgia in terms of population, employment and total income. The PCAA has partnered with Paulding Economic Development, the Paulding Chamber of Commerce and the Paulding Aerospace Alliance to pursue economic development around the Airport that will bring jobs to the area to improve employment opportunities and the tax base in the county. Currently, according to the U. S. Census Bureau- 2010 County-To-County Worker Flow Files, only 26% of the employed residents of Paulding County work in Paulding County. All others commute to surrounding counties for employment. Page 3 of 28 Historical and forecast growth in population, employment, total personal income and per capita personal income are presented in Exhibits 2.1 and 2.2. Exhibit 2.1 presents historical growth rates from 2000- 2014 for these four socioeconomic variables for the United States (US), the state of Georgia (GA) and for Paulding County (PC). For all four variables, growth in Paulding County has far outpaced growth in the nation and in the state. Exhibit 2.2 presents the forecast for growth in these socioeconomic variables from 2014 through 2020. Forecast growth for all variables through 2020 is slower than historical growth. Paulding County’s forecast growth continues to exceed that of the nation and the state in population, employment and total income, although its growth in per capita personal income falls below the US and Georgia in the forecast period. Exhibit 2.1 United States (US), Georgia (GA), Paulding County (PC) Historical Average Annual Growth Rates 2000-2014 7.00% 6.00% PC 5.00% US PC 4.00% PC GA 3.00% PC 2.00% US GA 1.00% GA US PC US US GA 0.00% GA Population Employment Total Income Per Capita Income Source: Woods & Poole Economics Page 4 of 28 Exhibit 2.2 United States (US), Georgia (GA), Paulding County (PC) Forecast Average Annual Growth Rates 2014-2020 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% PC US 3.0% PC GA 2.5% PC GA US PC 2.0% 1.5% GA GA US US GA 1.0% US 0.5% PC 0.0% Population Employment Total Income Per Capita Income Source: Woods & Poole Economics 3.0 Commercial Service In the 1990-2001 period, most of the major carriers had a philosophy that in order to be successful it was necessary to maintain a presence in as many airports as possible, serving O’Hare, Midway and even Rockford, IL for Chicago; Houston Intercontinental and Houston Hobby; as many airports as possible in the Los Angeles region; San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose in northern California; and Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, Washington Dulles International Airport, and Baltimore/Washington International Airport for the Washington, D.C./Baltimore metropolitan area. After 2001 and the passenger slow-down that occurred throughout the mid 2000s in the aftermath of 9/11, many legacy carriers were compelled to reorganize in bankruptcy (e.g., Delta, Northwest (now merged with Delta), US Airways (now merged with American), and United (now merged with Continental)) and drastically reshape their operations by rationalizing their respective route structures, eliminating duplicative hubs (such as Memphis, Cincinnati, and Cleveland), reducing aircraft capacity, and significantly reducing duplicative services in multi-airport cities. * Page 5 of 28 The majors also reduced their regional service to many smaller communities. That left many small airports that had upgraded their facilities to accommodate the upsurge in service in the 1990s without the travel options they had briefly enjoyed. The reduction in capacity results in fewer low-fare seats available on legacy airline flights.
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