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The Effect of a Glaciation on East Central Sweden: Case Studies on Present Glaciers and Analyses of Landform Data

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The Effect of a Glaciation on East Central Sweden: Case Studies on Present Glaciers and Analyses of Landform Data Authors: Per Holmlund, Caroline Clason Klara Blomdahl Research 2016:21 The effect of a glaciation on East Central Sweden: case studies on present glaciers and analyses of landform data Report number: 2016:21 ISSN: 2000-0456 Available at www.stralsakerhetsmyndigheten.se SSM 2016:21 SSM perspective Background and objectives The Swedish Radiation Safety Authority reviews and assesses applica- tions for geological repositories for nuclear waste. When assessing the long term safety of the repositories it is important to consider possible future developments of climate and climate-related processes. Espe- cially the next glaciation is important for the review and assessment for the long term safety of the spent nuclear fuel repository since the presence of a thick ice sheet influences the groundwater composition, rock stresses, groundwater pressure, groundwater flow and the surface denudation. The surface denudation is dependent of the subglacial temperatures and the presence of subglacial meltwater. The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) use the Weich- selian glaciation as an analog to future glaciations. Thus, increased understanding of the last ice age will give the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) better prerequisites to assess what impact of a future glaciation might have on a repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report compiles research conducted between 2008 and 2015 with a primary focus on 2012-2014. The primary aim of the research was to improve our understanding of processes acting underneath an ice sheet, specifically during a deglaciation. Results Based on the results of studies on present day High Alpine glaciers, the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and glacial geomorphological map- ping from land and marine-based data in the Gulf of Bothnia, we have gained an insight into how future glaciations may affect the northeast coast of Uppland, eastern Sweden. Evidence of ice streaming over a large distance in the Gulf of Bothnia, including the presence of numer- ous glacial lineations of varying scale, contests to a period of fast basal sliding during the Late Weichselian deglaciation. This suggests that there would have been a degree of erosion at the ice sheet bed during this time. These results have been taken into account in SSM:s reviews of SKB:s post-closure safety analysis, SR-Site, for the proposed reposi- tory at Forsmark. The evidences for a Baltic Ice Stream are linked to the long term exist- ence of the Gulf of Bothnia and the Baltic. Unfrozen soft sea bed sedi- ments allowed a fast sliding speed at a stage of glacier advance and the bed remained wet all through the glaciation. Need for further research The marine-based data in the Gulf of Bothnia show indications of major landslides in glacial deposits. They might represent one or several earthquakes in connection to the sudden load off during the deglacia- tion. However, there are no seismic soundings carried out at the site so evidences for this suggested origin are lacking. Further research is thus necessary to increase the understanding of the significance of SSM 2016:21 these structures. Knowledge of any post-glacial earthquakes that have or may possibly occur in the vicinity of a possible final repository for spent nuclear fuel is of high interest for SSM in the continued review of the application for a repository since large earthquakes may induce secondary fault movements in the final disposal volume which could damage deposited canisters. Project information Contact person SSM: Lena Sonnerfelt and Carl-Henrik Pettersson Reference: SSM 2010-1454 SSM 2016:21 Authors: Per Holmlund, Caroline Clason, Klara Blomdahl; Stockholms Universitet, Stockholm, Sverige 2016:21 The effect of a glaciation on East Cen- tral Sweden: case studies on present glaciers and analyses of landform data Date: June 2016 Report number: 2016:21 ISSN: 2000-0456 Available at www.stralsakerhetsmyndigheten.se This report concerns a study which has been conducted for the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, SSM. The conclusions and view- points presented in the report are those of the author/authors and do not necessarily coincide with those of the SSM. SSM 2016:21 Contents Summary ........................................................................................................ 2 Sammanfattning ............................................................................................ 4 1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 5 1.1. Permafrost ..................................................................................... 6 1.2. Temperature in ice ......................................................................... 8 1.3. Traces of past glaciations in East Central Sweden ....................... 8 2. Spatial and temporal changes of size and thermal regime of alpine Glaciers ........................................................................................................ 10 2.1. Response to climate change ....................................................... 10 2.1.1. Data ...................................................................................... 11 2.2. A case study of temperature and geometry changes of five Swedish glaciers ................................................................................. 12 2.2.1. How do Swedish glaciers respond to warming? ................. 12 2.2.2. Ice surface elevation surveys .............................................. 13 2.2.3. Physical settings and analyses of the glaciers .................... 13 2.2.4. Discussion ............................................................................ 23 3. Spatial and temporal changes of ice sheets ........................................ 24 3.1. Background .................................................................................. 24 3.2. Basal conditions in East Antarctica ............................................. 26 4. Glacial geomorphology in the Gulf of Bothnia, Åland Sea and corresponding shores ................................................................................ 31 4.1. Ice age scenario .......................................................................... 31 4.2. Bathymetry of the Swedish sector of the Gulf of Bothnia ............ 33 4.2.1. Meltwater beneath the Scandinavian Ice Sheet .................. 33 4.3. Glacial geomorphology of the Swedish coast ............................. 38 4.3.1. Norrtälje archipelago ............................................................ 39 4.3.2. The Singö archipelago ......................................................... 39 4.3.3. Gräsö archipelago ............................................................... 40 4.3.4. Öregrundsgrepen ................................................................. 41 4.4. Discussion .................................................................................... 42 5. Investigating the hydrology and dynamics of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet ............................................................................................................ 44 5.1. Meltwater transfer to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet: a contemporary analogue for a deglaciating Scandinavian Ice Sheet .. 44 5.2. Flow dynamics of the Baltic Ice Stream ...................................... 47 5.3. Modelling the influence of meltwater on the evolution of the Weichselian Eurasian Ice Sheets ....................................................... 49 6. Conclusions............................................................................................. 53 7. References ............................................................................................... 55 Appendix ...................................................................................................... 66 Publications and presentations ........................................................... 66 1 SSM 2016:21 Summary The presence of an ice sheet can exert numerous influences on the ground beneath; the weight of the overlying ice can force isostatic adjustments, and meltwater at an ice sheet bed can affect groundwater flow, ice velocity and the potential for erosion of the substrate. Collecting data on ice temperature, ice velocities, hydrology, ice geometry and meteorological conditions contributes to improving knowledge of physical processes associated with glaciation. The above-mentioned variables can be explored in contemporary ice sheet and glacier settings, but in order to understand past glaciations proxy data from glacial geomorphology must be also be applied. In this report we discuss the analysis of glacial geomorphological data from the northern Stockholm Archipelago and the sea floor of the Gulf of Bothnia, in addition to temperature and geometry changes of contemporary Swedish glaciers. Studies on a selection of glaciers in High Alpine Sweden reveal that though the temperature distribution adjusts to changes, the speed of change cannot match a quick recession as was recorded during the deglaciation of the Weichselian Ice Sheet. The ice remained cold in analogy with the present Greenlandic Ice Sheet. The colder Antarctic environment is more in analogy with the maximum phase of the Weichselian glaciation. Basal temperature conditions reflect long term changes and are thus more influenced by the maximum phase than by variations in climate during deglaciation. At a late stage of deglaciation, meltwater may have warmed up bed temperatures. Mapping of bathymetric data provides evidence
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