The Battle for Supremacy

Photovoltaics cell and module Producers The battle for supremacy Market leader First Solar has already demonstrated: thin-film While the manufacturers of solar cells and crystalline modules are modules as mass product – it can be done. Photo: First Solar already following a clear path in the direction of mass production, the thin-film producers have to deal with dropping silicon prices and the lower levels of efficiency. CI(G)S technology could soon become a serious competition for the successful CdTe modules. he prediction by market analysts is unambigu the market share of the Chinese producers will con ous: solar cells are competitive only as a mass tinue to grow in the course of the next years, even if Tproduct and the manufacturers are increasing at slightly slower rates. However, according to data ly seeking vertical integration or relying on perma by iSuppli, the first four positions on the list of top 10 nent contract partners for the module production. cell producing companies were already taken by The PV market requires low prices: similar to the sil Chinese players in the first quarter of 2010. Top of icon and wafer manufacturers (compare S&WE 9, the list is Suntech with a market share of 8.1 %, fol p. 122), the solar cell industry is experiencing in lowed by JASolar (7.3 %), Trina Solar (5.5 %) and creasing cost pressure. However, the production Yingli (5.4 %). Former world market leader QCells costs for solar cells vary considerably – the lowest from Germany is currently in the process of a strate are around 0.22 US$/W – in individual cases even gic realignment and ranks on position five with a less. “We are currently observing an expansion pro market share of 5.2 %. The company is followed by cess in many companies. In addition, the manufac Taiwanbased Gintech (4.7 %), China Sunergy turers from Asia have a cost advantage of about 15 % (4.5 %), USbased SunPower (4.3 %), Sharp from against their European competitors”, says Stefan de Japan (4.2 %) and the Taiwanese Motech (4.1 %), on Haan, Senior Analyst at iSuppli. Experts predict that position ten by SolarWorld (3.9 %). 116 Sun & Wind Energy 10/2010 MANUFACTURER Continuous demand on the market OF HIGHPOWER Solar cells will continue to see an unbroken demand in the future. Estimations are that the global solar cell MODULES production will reach a capacity of about 10.5 MW in the current year. In 2011, the total capacity could ar rive at between 13 and 14 GW. In order to be well- positioned along all the stages of the valueadded chain, the industry participants are focusing on in creasing their vertical integration and the further processing of their solar cells into modules. “Trina Solar and Yingli are very successful with this strategy. But it doesn’t always have to work out that well”, says de Haan. In a rapidly growing and changing market, defending market shares along the valueadded chain requires not only massive investments but also continuous quality improvement on all stages. It therefore takes a lot of money and expertise. Companies continuing their core competencies in the cell manufacturing segment are therefore increas ingly focusing on mass production and contract mod Energy Systems for the future ule manufacturing. One example is Flextronics International Ldt. Starting at the end of the year, the www.galaxy-energy.com company will supply modules for the US cell specialist SunPower Corp. from its plant in California. The Asia based company will also function as module supplier to QCells – with a capacity of 200 MW in its facility in the Malaysian port of Tanjung Pelepas. In the opinion of iSuppli, the cooperation between these two players and others announced can be read as early signs of a new trend. “I believe these moves are part of an emerging trend in the solar market that closely paral lels the situation in the electronics market in the ear ly 1990s,” says Greg Sheppard, Chief Research Offic The brand er for iSuppli. “Faced with the rapidly exploding de mand, the need to manufacture products close to end markets and the requirement to obtain sufficient cap ital, electronic Original Equipment Manufacturers in for quality the early 1990s turned to Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) companies such as Flextronics for help. This led to a massive boom in electronics out sourcing and explosive growth in the EMS business. At the beginning of 2010, a new EMS boom has been performance starting up, this time in the solar panel business.” Company Production 2009 [MW] Suntech 704 and durability Q-Cells 551 Yingli Green Energy 523 JA Solar 509 Sharp Electronics 505 Gintech Energy Corporation 400 SunPower 400 Trina Solar Energy 399 Kyocera 390 Motech Industries 360 Top 10 cell manufacturers based on production in 2009 Source: iSuppli Come and see us at www.galaxy-energy.com Sun & Wind Energy 10/2010 Photovoltaics cell and module Producers Other than in the case of solar cells, the brand man agement is an important factor for the module indus try, says Lohr. Another key aspect is the lowering of production costs. Together with other analysts, Lohr expects that the market will consolidate in the fore seeable future and then be in the hands of a small group of major companies. The top 10 list for the module manufacturing in dustry reveals the size to which the players dominat ing the market have meanwhile grown. In most cases, the production capacity is more than a purely theoret ical size: presently, the capacity exploitation achieved by the leading producers of crystalline modules ar rives at about 90 %. However, after a demand peak during the last two years, the manufacturers are now faced with an over supply situation. In the longterm, the differences in demand and supply will eventually level off, expects Markus Lohr. In the last months, for example, the strong demand on the German market has already helped to compensate the oversupply. According to iSuppli, the currently largest player for the first quar ter of 2010 is Suntech with a market penetration of 9.9 %, followed by Sharp (7.4 %), Trina Solar (6.8 %), Canadian Solar and Yingli (each with 6.7 %), SolarWorld and SunPower (each with 5.4 %), Solarfun (4.7 %), Sanyo Electric (4.5 %) and Ningbo Solar Electric (3.6 %). What the distribution of the market shares will look like in 2011 partly also depends on the develop ment of the silicon market and the strength of the US dollar. With exception of Germanybased Wacker Chemie AG, the raw material silicon is usually traded SolarWorld cells: a blue in US dollars. Although the silicon prices have again antireflection coating re- Oversupply of crystalline experienced an increase of about 20 % in the last few duces unwanted reflection modules to stabilize months, they have generally levelled off at a rather and provides the electrical low average. While the majority of analysts believe surface passivation. However, this trend is still less visible in the crystal that there are no drastic bottlenecks to be expected Photo: SolarWorld AG line module manufacturing industry. While the mate in the future, Dirk Morbitzer of Renewable Analytics is rial and logistics cost are relatively high in this seg more cautious: “The market demand for silicon will ment, the expenses for labour and energy are already triple by 2015. Companies require at least 18 months less significant compared to other stages of the for the expansion of their production capacities and valueadded chain. “What is more important in this should be clear on the scope of their expansion by segment are the transportation costs. Close proximi the end of 2012 at the latest.” ty to the end market is therefore of advantage”, says Mono and polycrystalline technologies will both Markus Lohr, a PV market expert at EUPD Research. remain of importance in the future. However, experts The trust of installers and end customers is also high still disagree on which will see the strongest growth. er when it comes to established and local products. “It is interesting to note that almost all manufacturers are ambitious to include at least one highperfor Company Production 2009 [MW] mance monocrystalline module in their portfolio”, Suntech Power 735 says iSuppli expert de Haan. Highperformance mod ules have therefore become a standard offer. Sharp Corporation 535 Yingli Green Energy 482 Universal price pressure SunPower 397 Trina Solar 394 While crystalline module makers are benefiting from Canadian Solar 345 the lower silicon prices, the market development is posing challenges for the thinfilm sector whose com Solarfun 341 petitiveness had previously been secured by the Kyocera 305 Top 10 module manufac- costs. “At the end of 2007, the investment into thin turers based on production Sanyo Electric 295 film could be balanced against prices of about in 2009 Source: iSuppli SolarWorld 294 € 4,000 per kW for a conventional crystalline rooftop 118 Sun & Wind Energy 10/2010 Photovoltaics cell and module Producers 120 Sun & Wind Energy 10/2010 Sun & Wind Energy 10/2010 121 Photovoltaics cell and module Producers system below 100 kW. For such a system, the module costs had ranged at € 3 per kW. It was generally as sumed that € 2.50 per kW for a thinfilm module would be a competitive price. Meanwhile, the price for a crystalline system has dropped to between € 2,500 and 3,000 per kW”, says Dr. Hartmut Gross, Sales Manager Thin Film at Centrotherm Photovoltaics AG. On the spot market, the price for a First Solar cad mium telluride (CdTe) module presently ranges at around 1.60 €/kW.

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