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June 15Th, 2015 How Social Media and Word of Mouth Drive TV Viewing

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June 15Th, 2015 How Social Media and Word of Mouth Drive TV Viewing How Social Media and Word-of-Mouth Drive TV Viewing Beth Rockwood | Ed Keller Mitch Lovett | Renana Peres ABOUT THE CRE The Council for Research Excellence is a body of senior research professionals, formed in 2005 to identify important questions about audience measurement methodology and to find, through quality research, the answers to those questions. The Council provides the Nielsen client community a means to undertake research projects no one company could undertake on its own. SOCIAL MEDIA COMMITTEE CHAIR MEMBERS Graeme Hutton Barry Stoddard Beth Rockwood Michael Abbott UM Disney ABC Television Group Discovery Communications Starcom MediaVest Dan Murphy Robin Thomas Michele Buslik Univision Communications The Tribune Company CRE FACILITATOR TargetCast TCM Richard Zackon Joshua Opoku Emily Vanides Jeffrey Graham Facebook MediaVest Twitter Daniel Slotwiner Stephanie Yates Mike Hess Facebook TV One Nielsen Tom Somers Tom Ziangas Jessica Hogue Gannett Broadcasting AMC Networks Nielsen What Is The Impact Of Social Media On TV Viewing? VIEWING SOCIAL MEDIA SHOW PROMO OFFLINE WOM 3 An Industry – Academic Partnership SPONSOR RESEARCH AGENCY DATA COLLECTION ACADEMIC CONSULTANTS Methodology A diary of Data set includes 1,665 Mobile Respondents App 21 days 151 Representative Report any time September 16 – Convergence sample of the you saw, heard or October 31, 2013 Panel online population, communicated Respondents ages 15-54 something about primetime TV shows. 78,310 Diary Entries 3,927 Viewing 1,596 Diary Reports Shows 5 A Major Data Integration Effort DIARY Over 2000 research assistance AIRING hours before NIELSEN LIST ADVIEWS the analysis could be done Altogether DIARY DIARY WHAT DIARY SELF REPORT PROGRAMS/ ON VIEWING TRIBUNE CHANNELS 122,844 GENRE NIELSEN CONVERGENCE ARE airings PANEL ON VIEWING AVAILABLE DEMOGRAPHICS TRIBUNE FOR TO WATCH? AIRING LIST SCREENER SUPER CONNECTOR SCREENER GENRE NEW SERIES 6 Today’s Agenda • How does communication influence individual viewing decisions? • How do communication campaigns influence show audience size? How Does Communication Influence Individual Viewing Decisions? Our Approach – Choice Modeling SOCIAL Watch? TO WATCH OR NOT TO WATCH Sep 30th 20 pm Eastern X v delayed MEDIA Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives delayed Family Feud x SHOW Fuse News x PROMO Futurama delayed How I Met Your Mother x OFFLINE How It's Made x WOM Lizard Lick Towing x Pawn Stars v Roseanne x PAST VIEWING The Big Bang Theory delayed DEMOGRAPHICS The Golden Girls x SUPER CONNECTOR The Nanny x GENRE Truck Stop USA x NEW SERIES In A Mathematical Formulation The probability of person i to watch airing j given the show is available and i’s individual characteristics �(​�↓�,� |​�↓�,� ,​�↓� ,​�↓�,�(�) ) The individual The communications The probability characteristics The availability received about the for person i to of person i of the channel of show show (WOM, social watch show j (viewing habits, j for person i media, promos, etc.) demographics etc.) Use a hierarchical Bayes model on individual-level data Two segments and separate models for new shows, demographic , superconnector, and genre breakouts 10 KEY SEGMENTS Repeaters and Infrequents REPEATERS INFREQUENTS Regularly watched the show Not Repeaters for a show. (returning shows) or expressed high Generally didn’t watch or interest in watching (new shows). watched infrequently. 11 OUR MAIN ANALYSIS METRIC Marginal Effect Measure of impact that can be compared across media We report direct average “marginal effects” average additional probability of viewing associated TECHNICALLY with one more encounter with a particular media PRACTICALLY increase in audience if everyone in the audience received one more encounter with a particular medium Measured in percentage points 12 Offline WOM strongest; Social media stronger than promos for infrequents Promos stronger than social media for repeaters REPEATERS INFREQUENTS Offline WOM Offline WOM Promos Social Media Social Media Promos Repeaters Infrequents 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% IMPACT 0.5% 0.0% Promos Offline WOM Social Media Promos Offline WOM Social Media *The overall average gain of one more exposure to each decision Cumulative Effect Of Communications On Individual-level Viewing REPEATERS INFREQUENTS 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% CUMULATIVE EFFECT CUMULATIVE 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 NUMBER OF ENCOUNTERS NUMBER OF ENCOUNTERS PROMOS OFFLINE SOCIAL The initial average effect of communications is lower for infrequents, but the cumulative effect can be equivalent. *Values are average viewing rates for someone with the number of encounters. Based on a model allowing new vs. returning show differences in media effects. Some values do not differ statistically from 0. 14 How Do Communication Campaigns Influence Show Audience Size? Simulated CAMPAIGN Effects SOCIAL % CHANGE IN RATING MEDIA A 100 GRP campaign SHOW vs. no exposures PROMO OFFLINE WOM REACH Not already receiving communications of that type Already receiving communications of that type based FREQUENCY on how much they already received RELATIVE INCREASE IN AUDIENCE Network Returning • Returning Network Shows can vary by communication type which type of campaign benefits most • Shows with larger repeater component benefit more from frequency campaigns ABC MODERN FAMILY CBS THE BIG BANG THEORY 16% 10% 14% 9% 8% 12% 7% 10% 6% 8% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% PERCENT INCREASE IN RATINGS INCREASE IN PERCENT PERCENT INCREASE IN RATINGS PERCENT 0% 0% Promos Offline WOM Social Media Promos Offline WOM Social Media FREQUENCY REACH Apply 100 GRPs assigned according to campaign type. Using Direct Effects Model. 17 RELATIVE INCREASE IN AUDIENCE Cable Returning • Returning Cable Shows seem to benefit most from frequency campaigns DISCOVERY AMISH MAFIA AMC BREAKING BAD 90% 30% 80% 25% 70% 60% 20% 50% 15% 40% 30% 10% 20% 5% 10% PERCENT INCREASE IN RATINGS PERCENT 0% RATINGS INCREASE IN PERCENT 0% Promos Offline WOM Social Media Promos Offline WOM Social Media FREQUENCY REACH Apply 100 GRPs assigned according to campaign type. Using Direct Effects Model. 18 RELATIVE INCREASE IN AUDIENCE NETWORK Returning • Returning Network Shows can also benefit more from reach campaigns CBS HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER NBC THE VOICE 60% 50% 45% 50% 40% 35% 40% 30% 30% 25% 20% 20% 15% 10% 10% 5% PERCENT INCREASE IN RATINGS INCREASE IN PERCENT PERCENT INCREASE IN RATINGS PERCENT 0% 0% Promos Offline WOM Social Media Promos Offline WOM Social Media FREQUENCY REACH Apply 100 GRPs assigned according to campaign type. Using Direct Effects Model. 19 RELATIVE INCREASE IN AUDIENCE Network NEW • New Network Shows benefit more from reach campaigns (low repeaters) • Frequency campaigns have relatively small impact, especially for offline WOM FOX BROOKLYN NINE-NINE NBC THE BLACKLIST 140% 140% 120% 120% 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% PERCENT INCREASE IN RATINGS PERCENT 0% RATINGS INCREASE IN PERCENT 0% Promos Offline WOM Social Media Promos Offline WOM Social Media FREQUENCY REACH Apply 100 GRPs assigned according to campaign type. Using Direct Effects Model. 20 RELATIVE INCREASE IN AUDIENCE NEW AND RETURING • New Shows increase more than Returning Shows for all communications • New Shows’ increases vary more than Returning Shows’ RETURNING SHOWS NEW SHOWS 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% PERCENT INCREASE IN RATINGS PERCENT INCREASE IN PERCENT INCREASE IN RATINGS PERCENT INCREASE IN Promos Offline WOM Social Media Promos" Offline WOM" Social Media" ABC Modern Family AMC Breaking Bad ABC Marvels Agents of SHIELD CBS How I Met Your Mother CBS The Big Bang Theory CBS Hostages Discovery Amish Mafia Fox New Girl FOX Brooklyn-Nine-Nine NBC The Voice Showtime Homeland NBC The Blacklist Apply 100 GRPs assigned according to campaign type. Using Direct Effects Model. 21 RELATIVE INCREASE IN AUDIENCE Varying GRPs •! Effect of GRPs is not linear, but close −! Change from a 50 GRP campaign differs from 50% of change of 100 GRP FOX BROOKLYN NINE-NINE DISCOVERY AMISH MAFIA 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% PERCENT INCREASE IN RATINGS PERCENT PERCENT INCREASE IN RATINGS PERCENT 0% 0% Promos Offline WOM Social Media Promos Offline WOM Social Media 25 GRP 50 GRP 100 GRP Apply 100 GRPs assigned according to campaign type. Using Direct Effects Model. 22 Wrap Up Social media effects on TV viewership are quantifiable 1 (but in a complicated way…) 2 Offline Word of Mouth is strongest driver of viewership 3 “Repeaters” and “Infrequents” are affected differently a. Promos stronger than social media for repeaters b. Social media stronger than promos for infrequents 4 Should your campaign focus on reaching new people, or increasing the frequency of communications to those who have already received them? a. Returning shows benefit more from frequency campaigns b. New network shows benefit more from reach campaigns 23 Thank You For all our presentations for social TV studies, visit www.researchexcellence.com .
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