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Download the Detailed Analysis 708)3-)$%9:;9% No easy choices: which way ! to Australia’s energy future? Technology Analysis" !"#$%&""'(%!)*+,-#%.'*+(%% /-#*01%23110)4"),5%-#'%6010#%2"))"4% No easy choices: which way to Australia’s energy future? Technology Analysis Founding members Higher Education Program Grattan Institute Report No. 2012-2, February 2012 Support This Technology Analysis publication accompanies a report, No easy choices: which way to Australia’s energy future? The report can be downloaded from the Grattan Institute website. This report was written by Tony Wood, Program Director, Tristan Edis, Research Fellow, Helen Morrow, Associate and Daniel Mullerworth, Associate, Grattan Institute. John Daley, CEO made a substantial contribution and James Button assisted in its preparation. We would like to thank the members of Grattan Institute’s Energy Senior Institutional Reference Group for their helpful comments, as well as numerous Affiliates industry participants and officials for their input. The opinions in this report are those of the authors and do not National Australia Bank necessarily represent the views of Grattan Institute’s founding members, Wesfarmers affiliates, individual board members or reference group members. Any remaining errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. Stockland Grattan Institute is an independent think-tank focused on Australian Google public policy. Our work is independent, practical and rigorous. We aim to improve policy outcomes by engaging with both decision-makers and the community. Institutional Affiliates For further information on the Institute’s programs, or to join our mailing list, please go to: http://www.grattan.edu.au/ Arup This report may be cited as: Urbis Wood, A., Edis, T., Morrow, H. & Mullerworth, D., 2012, No easy choices: which way to Australia’s energy future? Technology Analysis, Grattan Institute, All material published, or otherwise The Scanlon Foundation Melbourne. created by Grattan Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Lend Lease ISBN: 978-1-925015-19-5 Attribution-NonCommercial- ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. GRATTAN Institute 2012 No easy choices: which way to Australia’s energy future? Technology Analysis Table of Contents 1.! Summary of findings ................................................................. 1-1! 2.! Wind power .............................................................................. 2-1! 3.! Solar Photovolatic power (PV) ................................................. 3-1! 4.! Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) ............................................ 4-1! 5.! Geothermal power .................................................................... 5-1! 6.! Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) ........................................ 6-1! 7.! Nuclear power .......................................................................... 7-1! 8.! Bioenergy ................................................................................. 8-1! 9.! Transmission infrastructure ...................................................... 9-1! 10.! Appendix - Transmission requirements for large-scale deployment of wind, solar and geothermal power ........................ 10-1! 11.! Appendix - Expert contributors ............................................. 11-1! 12.! Glossary ............................................................................... 12-1! GRATTAN Institute 2012 No easy choices: which way to Australia’s energy future? Technology Analysis 1. Summary of findings Australia must substantially and relatively quickly change the The main report, available on the Grattan Institute website, sets nature of its electricity supply. The Commonwealth’s goal is to out the findings of the technology assessments and reviews the reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 2000 implications for government policy in terms of developing and levels by 2050. Much of this reduction will need to come from deploying low emissions electricity technology. This Technology changes in electricity production, while keeping energy secure Analysis report assesses each of the seven low-emissions and affordable for Australians. technologies in detail. This includes a review of the barriers that the transmission network can pose to large-scale deployment of How might this happen? This report and its companion main low-emissions energy technologies. Transmission is a special report assess the prospects for seven technologies that generate case, being monopoly infrastructure and essential to electricity electricity with near-zero emissions, and which are already supply. developed enough that large-scale deployment by 2050 is plausible. They are wind, solar PV, geothermal, nuclear, Table 1.1 summarises our assessment of the seven technologies. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP), Carbon Capture and Storage The shading in this table indicates the depth of the obstacles to and bioenergy. Each of these technologies might materially commercially deploying the technology on a scale that would contribute to Australia’s future energy mix. All face obstacles to materially contribute to Australia’s electricity generation mix. achieving their full potential. GRATTAN Institute 2012 1-1 No easy choices: which way to Australia’s energy future? Technology Analysis Table 1.1: Summary of technology assessments Scaleability Current costs and rate of decline Extent of commercial Prospects for near term Government barriers deployment private sector involvement Wind Could supply at least 20% Can scale up rapidly at less than key Significant deployment Significant investment Grid infrastructure and system of Australia’s electricity benchmark of $150/MWh, although underway in Australia underway given effective integration needs to be improved for needs. cost decline has flattened subsidy through 20% remote sites to support multiple, renewable energy target expensive and timely network upgrades. Given wind variability, other sources also required Private sector readily Community resistance to wind farm involved provided some noise can achieve a high profile: the government support regulatory framework needs to provide maintained certainty for all stakeholders Solar PV Could generate more Costs are fair, not yet competitive with Already widespread in Growing strongly from Large-scale deployment constrained by than30% with grid wind, but falling rapidly Australia, but not yet at existing base, but integration with electricity distribution integration management; scale to impact grid dependent on existent grid, in which Australia lacks skills and significantly more with Value depends on local network and government subsidies knowledge. viable storage timing of peak demand Concentrating Resource sufficient to meet Currently uncommercial; costs Some deployment Some involvement already Grid infrastructure and system Solar Power all of Australia’s electricity (particularly mass production of overseas, but limited scale in Australia, but dependent integration needs to be improved for needs components, better solar field as high cost relative to wind on government subsidies remote sites (as per Wind). engineering, and more efficient and solar PV Thermal storage and gas temperature fluids) may decline with Government needs to collect and cogeneration needed to development and broad deployment. disseminate solar radiation data, given overcome intermittency knowledge spillovers. Towers likely to be cheaper than other CSP technologies in medium term Geothermal Abundant resource in Reliability and costs highly uncertain Minimal deployment in May be involved in more Government needs to map, model and Australia could underpin a as still at exploration and Australia, although private accessible shallower Hot disseminate geological resource data, major contribution development stage, with fundamental companies involved in Sedimentary Aquifer, which given knowledge spillovers engineering challenges in reservoir exploration will also develop experience management and investor confidence to Grid infrastructure and system exploit the more difficult Hot integration needs to be improved for Rocks resource. remote sites (as per Wind). A clear regulatory framework is required to provide certainty for stakeholders. GRATTAN Institute 2012 1-2 No easy choices: which way to Australia’s energy future? Technology Analysis Scaleability Current costs and rate of decline Extent of commercial Prospects for near term Government barriers deployment private sector involvement Carbon Capture Could contribute very Projected costs competitive, but not Only deployed for gas Absolute size of investment Government needs to map, model and and Storage significantly and extend life proven at scale. production fields, which are a major barrier for early disseminate geological storage resource of existing and coal and much less complex than mover projects data, given knowledge spillovers. gas plants Early costs will be high as models are CCS for power generation developed to integrate different Difficult to set up given Clear legal and regulatory frameworks stages and interests complexity of many different are required to provide certainty for stages and industries stakeholders. working together Nuclear Could meet a large Gen 3+ well developed, but costs Widespread deployment Public companies better Legal and regulatory frameworks are proportion of Australia’s uncertain as limited experience in last overseas in the past, but placed in short run given required in Australia so lead time to electricity needs 25 years with plants
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