BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 7807, 5 December 2016 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for By Noel Dempsey

Contents: 1. The 2018 Review of constituency boundaries 2. Extent of change 3. Local authority boundaries 4. Electorates of the proposed seats 5. Area of proposed constituencies 6. List of proposed constituencies

www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Scotland

Contents

Summary 3 1. The 2018 Review of constituency boundaries 4 1.1 Reduction in Scottish seats 4 1.2 Initial proposals 5 2. Extent of change 6 2.1 Changes to existing constituencies 6 2.2 Disappearing and new constituencies 6 3. Local authority boundaries 8 4. Electorates of the proposed seats 9 4.1 Origins of the electorate 9 4.2 Deviation from electoral quota 9 4.3 Largest and smallest electorate 10 5. Area of proposed constituencies 11 6. List of proposed constituencies 12

Cover page image copyright: Redrawing the , by Noel Dempsey

3 Commons Library Briefing, 5 December 2016

Summary

The 2018 Review of constituency boundaries is set to reduce the number of constituencies in the UK from 650 to 600, and reduce the variation in their electorates. In Scotland the number of constituencies will fall from 59 to 53. On 20 October 2016, the Boundary Commission for Scotland published its initial proposals for the new areas. This briefing paper examines how the initial proposals would change the existing map of constituencies. It looks at: • the extent to which proposed constituencies can be identified with existing seats. For 51% of existing seats, the proposals suggest transferring more than 75% of their electors to a single new seat; • which seats are ‘new’ or that ‘disappear’; • which seats would cross local authority boundaries; and • the deviation of proposed seats from the Electoral Quota. Under the proposals: • the constituency with the largest electorate is Moray and Nairn (78,477); • the smallest electorate is Na h-Eileanan an Iar (20,887); • the constituency with the largest area is Highland North (12,985 km2); and • the constituency with the smallest area is Edinburgh North and Leith (20 km2). Library Briefing Paper 5929 Constituency boundary reviews and the number of MPs provides background to the boundary review process and discusses the 2013 Review which was halted. Information on the public consultation process that follows the publication of the initial proposals is provided in Library Briefing Paper 7696 Parliamentary boundary reviews: public consultation. Maps showing the proposed constituency boundaries in each region are on http://constituencyboundaries.uk/. Maps and discussion for individual proposed constituencies are on the Boundary Commission for Scotland’s website. Factors considered by the Boundary Commission for Scotland in developing its proposals are explained in Policies and Procedures Booklet, also available on the Commission’s website.

4 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Scotland

1. The 2018 Review of constituency boundaries

The 2018 Review of constituency boundaries must report between 1 September and 1 October 2018 and follows the 2013 Review of constituency boundaries that was halted. The rules for the review are set out in the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (as amended). More information on the boundary review process and the 2013 Review is provided in Library Briefing Paper 5929 Constituency boundary reviews and the number of MPs. The four UK Boundary Commissions (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) launched their reviews on 24 February 2016. They confirmed the electoral quota for the 2018 Review (based on the electorate at 1 December 2015) as 74,769. With the exception of four island seats, constituencies must be within 5% of this quota.1 This means a constituency electorate must be between 71,031 and 78,507.2 The table below shows how many seats are allocated to each part of the UK.

Allocation of seats in the 2018 Review Number of existing Reduction Current mean New mean constituencies 2018 allocation in seats % change electorate electorate UK 650 600 50 8% 70,530 74,537 England 533 501 32 6% 72,127 74,651 Scotland 59 53 6 10% 66,593 73,526 Wales 40 29 11 28% 57,040 75,236 Northern Ireland 18 17 1 6% 66,146 73,139 The Boundary Commissions publish initial proposals that are open to revision following a public consultation process. A further consultation on the revised proposals may inform the final recommendations, which are subject to approval by Parliament. The new boundaries are due to take effect at the 2020 General Election.

1.1 Reduction in Scottish seats The percentage reduction in seats for Scotland is greater than in England as a result of having the same UK-wide electoral quota. Previously, from the 1940s to 2005, Scotland was guaranteed at least 71 seats. During the Fifth Periodical Review, Section 86 of the removed the rule that guaranteed Scotland a minimum of 71 seats and set the electoral quota for Scotland to be the same as for England. This was to reduce the over-representation, in purely mathematical terms, of Scotland in the UK Parliament following the re- establishment of the .

1 Two Isle of Wight constituencies and the two Scottish constituencies of Na h- Eileanan an Iar, and Orkney and Shetland are exempted from this requirement. 2 Boundary Commission for Wales, 2018 Review, 24 February 2016; Boundary Commission for England, 2018 Review, 24 February 2016; Boundary Commission for Scotland, 2018 Review of UK Parliament constituencies, 24 February 2016; Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland, Current Review, 24 February 2016. 5 Commons Library Briefing, 5 December 2016

The changes described above mean that the formula used in the current review process3 to determine the distribution of seats reduces the number of seats in Scotland from 59 to 53. This is a 10% reduction in seats, the second greatest in any part of the UK.

1.2 Initial proposals The Boundary Commission for Scotland published its initial proposals for 53 Scottish constituencies on 20 October 2016. It has not been possible for the Scottish Boundary Commission to construct all constituencies from complete electoral wards. Where a ward had to be split the Commission attempted to follow community council area boundaries or other recognisable boundaries. Most constituencies (40) are made up of 1 or more part-wards. In some instances, proposed constituencies cross local council area boundaries.

England, Wales and Northern Ireland Provisional proposals for constituencies in Northern Ireland were published on 6 September 2016 and are discussed in Library Briefing Paper 7700 2018 Review of Parliamentary constituencies: Northern Ireland. The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for England were published on 13 September and are discussed in Library Briefing Paper 7716 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for England. The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for Wales were published on 13 September and are discussed in Library Briefing Paper 7719 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Wales.

3 Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011: Schedule 2, rule 8. 6 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Scotland

2. Extent of change 2.1 Changes to existing constituencies Some existing constituencies are split up between several proposed constituencies, while others remain largely the same. 12 constituencies in Scotland are wholly contained within a constituency proposed by the Boundary Commission. Another 18 would have over 75% of their electorate transferred to a single constituency.

Division of existing constituencies among proposed constituencies Number of Fraction of existing constituency contained existing % of existing within proposed consituency constituencies constituencies

Wholly contained in proposed constituency 12 20% 75-100% 18 31% 50-75% 22 37% <50% 7 12% Total 59 100%

Note: Based on unpublished indicative figures provided by the Boundary Commission for Scotland to the House of Commons Library Under the initial proposals, there are 7 existing seats that would not see a majority of their electors transferred to a single constituency. Existing constituencies that have less than 50% of their electorates transferred to a single proposed seat

Fraction of electorate going Existing constituency Party MP Proposed constituency to proposed seat

Central Ayrshire SNP Phillippa Whitford Cunninghame West 46.5% Edinburgh South West SNP Joanna Cherry Edinburgh South West and Central 46.0% Glasgow Central SNP Alison Thewliss Glasgow Central 40.3% Glasgow North SNP Patrick Grady Glasgow Central 45.8% Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath SNP Roger Mullin Kinross-shire and Cowdenbeath 44.8% Ross, Skye and Lochaber SNP Ian Blackford Highland North 49.8% Ochil and South Perthshire SNP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh Clackmannanshire and Stirling North 49.8%

Note: Based on unpublished indicative figures provided by the Boundary Commission for Scotland to the House of Commons Library 2.2 Disappearing and new constituencies Disappearing constituencies An existing seat can be said to “disappear” if it does not contribute the largest number of voters to any of the proposed seats: disappearing seats are split into fragments that do not form the largest part of any proposed seat.4 There are 9 “disappearing seats” in Scotland, listed in the table below.

4 Electoral Calculus, New Constituency Boundaries for Britain 2018, Disappearing Seats, 15 September 2016, http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2018.html 7 Commons Library Briefing, 5 December 2016

Disappearing seats: existing constituencies that do not make up the largest share of any proposed consituency Existing constituency MP

Angus Mike Weir Central Ayrshire Phillipa Whitford Edinburgh South Ian Murray Glasgow North Patrick Grady Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Roger Mullin Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows Ross, Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford Stirling Steven Paterson

Note: Based on unpublished indicative figures provided by the Boundary Commission for Scotland to the House of Commons Library New constituencies A proposed constituency can be defined as ‘new’ if it does not draw 50% or more of its electorate from any existing seat.

"New" constituencies Proposed constistuency Existing constituency

Glasgow Central 34% is drawn from Glasgow Central Kinross-shire and Cowdenbeath 46% is drawn from Ochil and South Perthshire Paisley 49% is drawn from Paisley and Renfewshire South

Note: Based on unpublished indicative figures provided by the Boundary Commission for Scotland to the House of Commons Library

8 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Scotland

3. Local authority boundaries

Local government in Scotland is divided into 32 unitary local authorities. 18 out of the 53 proposed constituencies cross the boundaries of two local council areas; all other proposed constituencies are held wholly within a single council area. Proposed constituencies that cross local authority boundaries Proposed constituencies Council Areas

Angus Glens and Dundee East Angus Dundee Argyll, Bute and Lochaber Highland Clackmannanshire and Stirling North Clackmannanshire Stirling Clydesdale and Eskdale Dumfries and Galloway Cunninghame East East Edinburgh Pentland and Livingston City of Edinburgh West Lothian Hamilton and Motherwell South Lanarkshire North Lanarkshire Inverclyde and Largs Inverclyde Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley East Ayrshire South Ayrshire Kincardine and Angus East Aberdeenshire Angus Kinross-shire and Cowdenbeath Perth and Kinross Fife Midlothian and Peebles Midlothian Scottish Borders Moray and Nairn Moray Highland Orkey and Shetland Orkney Island Shetland Islands Paisley East Renfrewshire Renfrewshire Stirling South Fallkirk Stirling West Dunbartonshire and Bearsden North West Dunbartonshire East Dunbartonshire West Renfrewshire North Ayrshire Renfrewshire

9 Commons Library Briefing, 5 December 2016

4. Electorates of the proposed seats

4.1 Origins of the electorate Most proposed constituencies draw their electorate from two existing seats. Three proposed constituencies are combinations of fragments from five existing seats. Origins of the electorate of proposed constituencies Contribution of Number of current constituencies proposed % of proposed to proposed constituencies constituencies

One 3 5.7% Two 26 49.1% Three 17 32.1% Deviation of electorates Four 4 7.5% of proposed Five 3 5.7% constituencies from the electoral quota Total 53 100%

Note: Deviation from Number of Based on unpublished indicative figures provided by the Boundary Commission for Scotland to the EQ (+/-) constituencies House of Commons Library 0-1% 10 4.2 Deviation from electoral quota 1-2% 9 2-3% 9 The Boundary Commission for Scotland is required to propose 3-4% 6 constituencies that have an electorate within 5% of the electoral quota 4-5% 17 of 74,769: constituency electorates must be between 71,031 and >5% 2 78,507 (with the exception of Orkney and Shetland and Na h-Eileanan Total 53 An Iar)

Deviation of electorates of proposed constituencies from electoral quota

Number of 10 constituencies

7 6 5 5 5 5 4 3

1

-4 to -5% -3 to -4% -2 to -3% -1 to -2% 0 to -1% 0 to +1% +1 to +2% +2 to +3% +3 to +4% +4 to +5% % deviation from quota

10 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Scotland

The electorates of the proposed constituencies deviate from the electorate quota unevenly. Just over one third of proposed constituencies deviate from the electoral quota by 4-5% (of those, just under two thirds (10) are over the electoral quota). Just over half of all proposed constituencies are within 3% of the electoral quota. Just under two thirds of the proposed constituencies are over the electoral quota of 74,769.

4.3 Largest and smallest electorate Under the provisional proposals the largest constituency in Scotland (in terms of electorate) would be Moray and Nairn, with 78,477 electors. It comprises electors from the following existing seats: • Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey • Moray Proposed constituencies with largest electorate 1 Moray and Nairn 78,477 2 Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley 78,431 3 Hamilton and Motherwell 78,281 4 Dunfermline 78,254 5 Inverness and Skye 78,220

The constituency with the smallest electorate, other than one of the two island constituencies not required to be with the permitted range, is Clackmannanshire and Stirling North, with 71,122. This is 91 electors more than the minimum permissible electorate. Proposed constituencies with smallest electorate 1 Na h-Eileanan an Iar 20,887 2 Orkney and Shetland 33,229 3 Clackmannanshire and Stirling North 71,122 4 Stirling South 71,150 5 Cunninghame East 71,251

11 Commons Library Briefing, 5 December 2016

5. Area of proposed constituencies

The reduction in the number of seats means that the average area of a Scottish constituency increases to 1,514 km2. The largest of the proposed constituencies in Scotland is Highland North, 12,985 km2. There are 18 other proposed constituencies covering more than 1,000 km2. Proposed constituencies with the largest area

Proposed constituency Electorate Area (km2)

1 Highland North 73,147 12,985 2 Argyll, Bute and Lochaber 77,574 10,302 3 Inverness and Skye 78,220 9,995 4 Dumfries and Galloway 78,093 4,126 5 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 74,428 3,999

The proposed constituency covering the smallest geographical area is Edinburgh North and Leith, with an area of 20 km2. Proposed constituencies with the smallest area

Proposed constituency Electorate Area (km2)

1 Edinburgh North and Leith 71,541 20 2 Glasgow Central 75,718 21 3 Glasgow South East 72,479 21 4 Glasgow West 77,803 30 5 Glasgow South West 73,477 32

12 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Scotland

6. List of proposed constituencies

Proposed Proposed constituency electorate Area (km2)

Aberdeen North 75,791 105 Aberdeen South 74,444 101 Airdrie South and Shotts 73,109 176 Angus Glens and Dundee East 78,156 1,861 Argyll, Bute and Lochaber 77,574 10,302 Ayr and Carrick 77,352 1,107 Banff and Buchan 76,878 1,760 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 74,428 3,999 Clackmannanshire and Stirling North 71,122 1,819 Clydesdale and Eskdale 75,090 3,765 Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Monklands East 74,961 187 Cunninghame East 71,251 437 Cunninghame West 74,566 667 Dumfries and Galloway 78,093 4,126 Dundee 76,317 43 Dunfermline 78,254 236 East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 76,833 403 East Lothian 76,153 701 Edinburgh East 74,009 41 Edinburgh North and Leith 71,541 20 Edinburgh Pentland and Livingston 78,164 226 Edinburgh South West and Central 77,029 37 Edinburgh West 77,738 91 Falkirk 73,839 181 Glasgow Central 75,718 21 Glasgow East 75,433 33 Glasgow North 71,443 38 Glasgow South East 72,479 21 Glasgow South West 73,477 32 Glasgow West 77,803 30 Glenrothes and Kirkcaldy 71,677 133 Gordon and Deeside 74,069 3,412 Hamilton and Motherwell 78,281 126 Highland North 73,147 12,985 Inverclyde and Largs 73,965 347 Inverness and Skye 78,220 9,995 Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley 78,431 1,082 Kincardine and Angus East 76,784 1,527 Kinross-shire and Cowdenbeath 75,780 1,609 Linlithgow 78,026 289 Midlothian and Peebles 76,208 1,099 Milngavie and Kirkintilloch 71,594 156 Monklands West 74,263 83 Moray and Nairn 78,477 2,612 Na h-Eileanan an Iar 20,887 3,269 North East Fife 76,900 834 Orkney and Shetland 33,229 2,743 Paisley 75,331 102 Perthshire 72,831 3,981 Rutherglen and Hamilton West 76,341 57 Stirling South 71,150 733 West Dunbartonshire and Bearsden North 77,258 201 West Renfrewshire 74,958 284

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