BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 7807, 5 December 2016 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for By Noel Dempsey Scotland Contents: 1. The 2018 Review of constituency boundaries 2. Extent of change 3. Local authority boundaries 4. Electorates of the proposed seats 5. Area of proposed constituencies 6. List of proposed constituencies www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Scotland Contents Summary 3 1. The 2018 Review of constituency boundaries 4 1.1 Reduction in Scottish seats 4 1.2 Initial proposals 5 2. Extent of change 6 2.1 Changes to existing constituencies 6 2.2 Disappearing and new constituencies 6 3. Local authority boundaries 8 4. Electorates of the proposed seats 9 4.1 Origins of the electorate 9 4.2 Deviation from electoral quota 9 4.3 Largest and smallest electorate 10 5. Area of proposed constituencies 11 6. List of proposed constituencies 12 Cover page image copyright: Redrawing the boundaries Scotland, by Noel Dempsey 3 Commons Library Briefing, 5 December 2016 Summary The 2018 Review of constituency boundaries is set to reduce the number of constituencies in the UK from 650 to 600, and reduce the variation in their electorates. In Scotland the number of constituencies will fall from 59 to 53. On 20 October 2016, the Boundary Commission for Scotland published its initial proposals for the new areas. This briefing paper examines how the initial proposals would change the existing map of constituencies. It looks at: • the extent to which proposed constituencies can be identified with existing seats. For 51% of existing seats, the proposals suggest transferring more than 75% of their electors to a single new seat; • which seats are ‘new’ or that ‘disappear’; • which seats would cross local authority boundaries; and • the deviation of proposed seats from the Electoral Quota. Under the proposals: • the constituency with the largest electorate is Moray and Nairn (78,477); • the smallest electorate is Na h-Eileanan an Iar (20,887); • the constituency with the largest area is Highland North (12,985 km2); and • the constituency with the smallest area is Edinburgh North and Leith (20 km2). Library Briefing Paper 5929 Constituency boundary reviews and the number of MPs provides background to the boundary review process and discusses the 2013 Review which was halted. Information on the public consultation process that follows the publication of the initial proposals is provided in Library Briefing Paper 7696 Parliamentary boundary reviews: public consultation. Maps showing the proposed constituency boundaries in each region are on http://constituencyboundaries.uk/. Maps and discussion for individual proposed constituencies are on the Boundary Commission for Scotland’s website. Factors considered by the Boundary Commission for Scotland in developing its proposals are explained in Policies and Procedures Booklet, also available on the Commission’s website. 4 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Scotland 1. The 2018 Review of constituency boundaries The 2018 Review of constituency boundaries must report between 1 September and 1 October 2018 and follows the 2013 Review of constituency boundaries that was halted. The rules for the review are set out in the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (as amended). More information on the boundary review process and the 2013 Review is provided in Library Briefing Paper 5929 Constituency boundary reviews and the number of MPs. The four UK Boundary Commissions (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) launched their reviews on 24 February 2016. They confirmed the electoral quota for the 2018 Review (based on the electorate at 1 December 2015) as 74,769. With the exception of four island seats, constituencies must be within 5% of this quota.1 This means a constituency electorate must be between 71,031 and 78,507.2 The table below shows how many seats are allocated to each part of the UK. Allocation of seats in the 2018 Review Number of existing Reduction Current mean New mean constituencies 2018 allocation in seats % change electorate electorate UK 650 600 50 8% 70,530 74,537 England 533 501 32 6% 72,127 74,651 Scotland 59 53 6 10% 66,593 73,526 Wales 40 29 11 28% 57,040 75,236 Northern Ireland 18 17 1 6% 66,146 73,139 The Boundary Commissions publish initial proposals that are open to revision following a public consultation process. A further consultation on the revised proposals may inform the final recommendations, which are subject to approval by Parliament. The new boundaries are due to take effect at the 2020 General Election. 1.1 Reduction in Scottish seats The percentage reduction in seats for Scotland is greater than in England as a result of having the same UK-wide electoral quota. Previously, from the 1940s to 2005, Scotland was guaranteed at least 71 seats. During the Fifth Periodical Review, Section 86 of the Scotland Act 1998 removed the rule that guaranteed Scotland a minimum of 71 seats and set the electoral quota for Scotland to be the same as for England. This was to reduce the over-representation, in purely mathematical terms, of Scotland in the UK Parliament following the re- establishment of the Scottish Parliament. 1 Two Isle of Wight constituencies and the two Scottish constituencies of Na h- Eileanan an Iar, and Orkney and Shetland are exempted from this requirement. 2 Boundary Commission for Wales, 2018 Review, 24 February 2016; Boundary Commission for England, 2018 Review, 24 February 2016; Boundary Commission for Scotland, 2018 Review of UK Parliament constituencies, 24 February 2016; Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland, Current Review, 24 February 2016. 5 Commons Library Briefing, 5 December 2016 The changes described above mean that the formula used in the current review process3 to determine the distribution of seats reduces the number of seats in Scotland from 59 to 53. This is a 10% reduction in seats, the second greatest in any part of the UK. 1.2 Initial proposals The Boundary Commission for Scotland published its initial proposals for 53 Scottish constituencies on 20 October 2016. It has not been possible for the Scottish Boundary Commission to construct all constituencies from complete electoral wards. Where a ward had to be split the Commission attempted to follow community council area boundaries or other recognisable boundaries. Most constituencies (40) are made up of 1 or more part-wards. In some instances, proposed constituencies cross local council area boundaries. England, Wales and Northern Ireland Provisional proposals for constituencies in Northern Ireland were published on 6 September 2016 and are discussed in Library Briefing Paper 7700 2018 Review of Parliamentary constituencies: Northern Ireland. The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for England were published on 13 September and are discussed in Library Briefing Paper 7716 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for England. The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for Wales were published on 13 September and are discussed in Library Briefing Paper 7719 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Wales. 3 Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011: Schedule 2, rule 8. 6 2018 Boundary Review: initial proposals for Scotland 2. Extent of change 2.1 Changes to existing constituencies Some existing constituencies are split up between several proposed constituencies, while others remain largely the same. 12 constituencies in Scotland are wholly contained within a constituency proposed by the Boundary Commission. Another 18 would have over 75% of their electorate transferred to a single constituency. Division of existing constituencies among proposed constituencies Number of Fraction of existing constituency contained existing % of existing within proposed consituency constituencies constituencies Wholly contained in proposed constituency 12 20% 75-100% 18 31% 50-75% 22 37% <50% 7 12% Total 59 100% Note: Based on unpublished indicative figures provided by the Boundary Commission for Scotland to the House of Commons Library Under the initial proposals, there are 7 existing seats that would not see a majority of their electors transferred to a single constituency. Existing constituencies that have less than 50% of their electorates transferred to a single proposed seat Fraction of electorate going Existing constituency Party MP Proposed constituency to proposed seat Central Ayrshire SNP Phillippa Whitford Cunninghame West 46.5% Edinburgh South West SNP Joanna Cherry Edinburgh South West and Central 46.0% Glasgow Central SNP Alison Thewliss Glasgow Central 40.3% Glasgow North SNP Patrick Grady Glasgow Central 45.8% Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath SNP Roger Mullin Kinross-shire and Cowdenbeath 44.8% Ross, Skye and Lochaber SNP Ian Blackford Highland North 49.8% Ochil and South Perthshire SNP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh Clackmannanshire and Stirling North 49.8% Note: Based on unpublished indicative figures provided by the Boundary Commission for Scotland to the House of Commons Library 2.2 Disappearing and new constituencies Disappearing constituencies An existing seat can be said to “disappear” if it does not contribute the largest number of voters to any of the proposed seats: disappearing seats are split into fragments that do not form the largest part of any proposed seat.4 There are 9 “disappearing seats” in Scotland, listed in the table below. 4 Electoral Calculus, New Constituency Boundaries for Britain 2018, Disappearing Seats, 15