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Fenno-Soviet Relations During the Cold War Autio-Sarasmo, Sari https://helda.helsinki.fi A Nation Flat on its Face? - Fenno-Soviet Relations During the Cold War Autio-Sarasmo, Sari Parliament of Finland, Committee for the Future 2014-11-26 Autio-Sarasmo , S 2014 , A Nation Flat on its Face? - Fenno-Soviet Relations During the Cold War . Publication of the Committee for the Future , no. 9/2014 , Parliament of Finland, Committee for the Future , Helsinki . http://hdl.handle.net/10138/152773 Downloaded from Helda, University of Helsinki institutional repository. This is an electronic reprint of the original article. This reprint may differ from the original in pagination and typographic detail. Please cite the original version. publication of the committee for the future 9/2014 russia as neighbour a russia as a neighbour 9 isbn 978-951-53-3575-3 (paperback) • isbn 978-951-53-3576-0 (pdf) /2014 issn 2342-6594 (printed) • issn 2342-6608 (web) russia as a neighbour Ed. Hanna Smith publication of the committee for the future 9/2014 Back cover: Part of the Artwork Tulevaisuus, Väinö Aaltonen (1932), photo Vesa Lindqvist. Committee for the Future FI-00102 Parliament of Finland www.parliament.fi Helsinki 2014 ISBN 978-951-53-3575-3 (paperback) ISBN 978-951-53-3576-0 (PDF) ISSN 2342-6594 (printed) ISSN 2342-6608 (web) Contents Russia, quo vadis? ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 Foreword ...................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Part I: The futures of Russia – The Picture of Russia through Scenarios .............................................. 7 What are scenarios? ........................................................................................................................................... 8 Scenarios of Russia’s future – an historical overview ............................................................................ 9 Identifying inputs – key drivers ................................................................................................................... 12 Key drivers – economy ............................................................................................................................. 13 Key drivers – regional factors................................................................................................................. 14 Key drivers - demography ....................................................................................................................... 15 Scenarios of Russia’s future – a review of recent scenarios ............................................................. 19 Conclusion: The Picture of Russia through scenarios .......................................................................... 30 Sources ................................................................................................................................................................. 34 APPENDIX ONE .................................................................................................................................................. 35 Forecasting Russia’s Future – The Use of Scenarios. ..................................................................... 35 APPENDIX TWO ................................................................................................................................................. 38 Russian Future: before and after 2014. .............................................................................................. 38 Part II: The futures of Russia – The picture of Russia Through the Eyes of Neighbours .............. 41 The nature of post-Soviet borders ............................................................................................................. 43 Historical background ..................................................................................................................................... 46 Russian policy towards the ‘near abroad’ countries ............................................................................ 48 The situation of Russia’s neighbours and survey responses ............................................................. 51 Azerbaijan ..................................................................................................................................................... 51 Belarus............................................................................................................................................................ 55 Estonia ............................................................................................................................................................ 59 Georgia ........................................................................................................................................................... 62 Japan ............................................................................................................................................................... 68 Kazakhstan .................................................................................................................................................... 71 1 Norway ........................................................................................................................................................... 77 Conclusion: A Picture of Russia through its Neighbours .................................................................... 79 The Eastern group of the EU and the Western Balkans: Assertive or attractive Russia? ....... 83 A new affinity to Russia? ......................................................................................................................... 85 A common dilemma: Pragmatic or Value-loaded attitude? ....................................................... 87 Securing energy and markets................................................................................................................. 87 Political power-play ................................................................................................................................... 89 Displays of national sentiment .............................................................................................................. 91 The Effect of the Ukraine crisis .................................................................................................................... 93 Conclusion: future perspectives.................................................................................................................. 94 Sources ................................................................................................................................................................. 96 Part III: Living next door to Russia – Russia’s future and Finland.......................................................101 History ................................................................................................................................................................104 A Legacy of Finlandisation and Russia ..............................................................................................104 A Nation Flat on its Face? – Fenno-Soviet Relations During the Cold War ..........................105 Additional reading ....................................................................................................................................107 Economy ............................................................................................................................................................108 The Economy Determining Finnish-Russian Relations? ..............................................................108 Politics ................................................................................................................................................................110 Finnish Policy on Russia in The EU Era ..............................................................................................110 Security ..............................................................................................................................................................112 Finland’s Coping Strategy ......................................................................................................................112 One view from the Finnish youth .............................................................................................................114 Who’s afraid of Putin? ............................................................................................................................114 Current trends and future scenarios for Russia and her Neighbours ..........................................118 Sources ...............................................................................................................................................................127 2 Russia, quo vadis? The Committee for the Future has published a study dealing with Russia from year 2007 every four-year term. The first looked at Russia’s political development, the second focused on modernisation of the Russian economy and now the theme of the third is Russian foreign policy. The theme is approached from the perspective of a great power’s neighbours. When we were launching our latest research, we had no way of knowing how topical it would turn out to be. Political power has begun to be concentrated in
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