The Covid-19 Funding Gap: the Case for Continuing Support for Urban Public Transport

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The Covid-19 Funding Gap: the Case for Continuing Support for Urban Public Transport Report September 2020 The Covid-19 Funding Gap: The Case for Continuing Support for Urban Public Transport Urban Transport Group Our ref: 23930401 Report September 2020 The Covid-19 Funding Gap: The Case for Continuing Support for Urban Public Transport Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Urban Transport Group 67 Albion Street Wellington House Leeds LS1 5AA 40-50 Wellington Street Leeds LS1 2DE +44 113 389 6400 www.steergroup.com Our ref: 23930401 Steer has prepared this material for Urban Transport Group. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. The Covid-19 Funding Gap: The Case for Continuing Support for Urban Public Transport | Report Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. i Overview .............................................................................................................................. i Public Transport Pre-Covid .................................................................................................. i Public Transport During Covid .............................................................................................ii Future Public Transport Demand ........................................................................................ii A Cliff Edge End to Financial Support ................................................................................. iv The Case for Continuing Support ....................................................................................... iv 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 2 Public Transport Pre Covid ........................................................................................ 3 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 3 Public Transport Use Pre Covid .......................................................................................... 3 Case Study: Manchester Metrolink .................................................................................... 7 Who uses Public Transport ................................................................................................. 9 The Importance of Local Public Transport ....................................................................... 15 Why Bus Matters .............................................................................................................. 16 How PT services are provided .......................................................................................... 16 Government and Local Public Transport – Policy Position ............................................... 22 LTAs and Local Public Transport ....................................................................................... 25 3 Public Transport During Covid ................................................................................. 30 Bus .................................................................................................................................... 30 Operating Public Transport during Covid ......................................................................... 30 Covid-19 Bus Services Support Grant ............................................................................... 33 Bus Service Operators Grant (BSOG) ................................................................................ 34 Concessionary Fares Reimbursement .............................................................................. 34 Light Rail ........................................................................................................................... 36 Metrolink Case Study ....................................................................................................... 36 Nexus – Tyne and Wear Metro Patronage ....................................................................... 38 National Rail ..................................................................................................................... 40 4 Public Transport Post Covid ..................................................................................... 41 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 41 September 2020 The Covid-19 Funding Gap: The Case for Continuing Support for Urban Public Transport | Report Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................ 42 Local Public Transport Patronage ..................................................................................... 45 5 The Case for Public Support ..................................................................................... 50 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 50 Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 51 End of Support .................................................................................................................. 52 6 Options for Future Arrangements for Providing Public Support to Local Public Transport ................................................................................................................ 57 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 57 Local Bus ........................................................................................................................... 58 Light Rail and Tram ........................................................................................................... 58 Summary........................................................................................................................... 65 Figures Figure 2.1: Bus Patronage – 1955 to the Present Day .................................................................. 4 Figure 2.2: Bus Vehicle Miles – 1987 to the Present Day ............................................................. 5 Figure 2.3: Bus Fares Index – 2005 to Present Day ...................................................................... 5 Figure 2.4: Mode Share for trips into Manchester City Centre .................................................... 9 Figure 2.5: Why People Travel by Bus (Outside London) ........................................................... 10 Figure 2.6: Propensity to Use Bus (by Age) ................................................................................ 11 Figure 2.7: Bus trips made by age brackets (Full population) .................................................... 12 Figure 2.8: Bus trips made by age brackets (Male) .................................................................... 12 Figure 2.9: Bus trips made by age brackets (Female) ................................................................. 13 Figure 2.10: Bus trips by income quintile ................................................................................... 13 Figure 2.11: Why People Travel by Tram (Outside London) ....................................................... 14 Figure 2.12: Propensity to Use Tram (by Age) ............................................................................ 14 Figure 2.13: Propensity to Use Tram (By Household Income) .................................................... 15 Figure 2.14: Breakdown of English (non-London) bus revenue (2018/19 prices) ...................... 20 Figure 3.1: Non London Bus Usage as a percentage of pre Covid levels (7 day moving average) .................................................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 3.2: Metrolink Usage as a percentage of pre Covid levels (7 day moving average) ........ 37 September 2020 The Covid-19 Funding Gap: The Case for Continuing Support for Urban Public Transport | Report Figure 3.3: Tyne and Wear Metro Usage as a percentage of pre Covid levels (7 day moving average) ...................................................................................................................................... 39 Figure 4.1: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Quarterly GDP Projections .............. 44 Figure 4.2: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Quarterly Unemployment Projections .................................................................................................................................................... 44 Figure 4.3: Cycles of Lockdown Scenario – Push and Pull Factors .............................................. 45 Figure 4.4: Vaccine Scenario – Push and Pull Factors ................................................................. 45 Tables Table 2.1: English Light Rail and Tram Outside London (2018/19
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