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USCA Equity Research USCA Equity Research SEMG – July 24, 2013 Overview SEMGROUP CORPORATION SemGroup Corporation (SEMG) provides gathering, transportation, processing, storage, SEMG distribution, marketing and other midstream services. Assets are located primarily in the Mid -Continent and Rocky Mountain regions, but SEMG also generates ~25% of their CURRENT PRICE: $56.40 EBITDA from international assets (Canada, Mexico and the UK). SEMG owns 58% of the LP units as well as the 2% GP interest in Rose Rock Midstream (RRMS) and owns 9.1mm TARGET PRICE: $60.00 LP units (13.9%) and a 6.42% interest in the GP stake in NGL Energy Partners (NGL). RECOMMENDATION: HOLD SEMG filed for bankruptcy in 2008, after incurring $3B+ in oil trading losses. They filed petitions for reorganization later that year, emerged from bankruptcy in late 2009, and Key Stats IPO’d the new company in 2010. A new board of directors was appointed and the cur rent management team was brought on as part of the reorganization. As part of the Market Cap: $2.4B bankruptcy, SEMG sold their General and Limited Partner interests in SemGroup Energy Enterprise Value: $2.5B Partners (now BlueKnight Energy Partners) to Vitol. Additionally, SEMG either sold or EPU (2012A): $0.52 EPU (2013E): $1.90 sh ut down a number of their non-core operating segments. P/E (2012A): 108.5x We are initiating coverage of SemGroup with a Hold rating and a $60/sh price target. P/E (2013E): 29.7x EV/EBITDA (2013E): 14.9x Investment Thesis DPS (2013E): $0.60 Growth forthcoming, but largely priced in: Adjusted EBITDA is set to grow ~25% in Current Yield: 1.35% 3-Yr DPU Growth Rate: 27.9% ’13 based on management guidance, and we estimate that ’14 should follow with Beta: 0.95 another 30% gain. However, it appears the market is factoring in this growth given their 14.9x EV/ ‘13E EBITDA multiple that compares to their peers that trade at an average of 11.5x. Current low yield reflects above-average dividend growth rate: SEMG recently announced their first quarterly dividend (19c/sh) since filing for bankruptcy and has targeted double-digit dividend growth over the next three years. With ~$2B of dropdowns planned for RRMS over the next five years, we see an average ~28% dividend growth rate through ’17. We think the well below peer, 1.35% current yield, reflects that growth. Leverage to Mississippi Lime play adds risk: We consider the Mississippi Lime to be a lower-tier basin for E&P operators. Thus, gas and crude production from this basin is likely to be more subject to commodity prices and geographic risk than higher-tier basins like the Eagle Ford or Bakken. This risk is amplified by the fact that the Mississippi Lime’s growth is driven by SandRidge (SD) and Chesapeake (CHK), two companies who have undergone recent CEO changes, which could lead to changes in strategy. Analyst Contacts This isn’t your older brother’s SemGroup: A new, higher quality management team and a much more conservative philosophy dominate the post-bankruptcy SemGroup. James Carreker For an in-depth account of SemGroup’s 2008 bankruptcy, read Louis Freeh’s report 713-366-0558 here (same investigator from Penn State’s recent scandal). Basically, their former [email protected] CEO had free reign over their Trading Desk and made numerous short bets on crude in early ‘08, only to see it continue to climb towards $147/bbl. Becca Followill Valuation 713-366-0557 [email protected] We value arrive at our $60/sh price target using the sum of the parts valuation below. We mark LP units to market and value RRMS’s future GP cash flows assuming the 1 ** Important Disclosures on pages 9-10 of this report ** USCA Equity Research SEMG – July 24, 2013 dropdown schedule outlined in our RRMS initiation and also shown below our NAV chart. We model NGL GP cash flows assuming NGL management distribution guidance for their FY’14 and assume growth of 1c/quarter thereafter. We value SEMG’s undropped assets at multiples of ’15 EBITDA, giving a slight premium for crude-based assets. We chose ’15 EBITDA as our base year as SEMG has several growth projects coming online in ’14, so that ’15 is the first year that provides a full run rate. In addition to LP/GP values and segment EBITDA multiple values, we also add and subtract value for SEMG’s undesignated growth projects, warrant dilution, and net debt. We risk-adjust SEMG’s outlined but undesignated growth projects (most recent presentations show $115mm in ’13 and $205-$305mm in ’14 of undesignated capex; we use 50% of those amounts to risk-adjust) assuming they can build at a 6x EBITDA multiple and create a 10x EBITDA value once completed. Previously undesignated growth projects that have added significant value include the Glass Mountain and Wattenberg pipelines as well as the White Cliffs pipeline expansion. We subtract value for potential dilution based on the ~2.1mm warrants issued and outstanding related to SEMG’s bankruptcy filing (strike price of $25/sh). We also take into account the stand-alone net debt at the SEMG level at YE’14 (when major identified growth projects are completed), backing out RRMS level debt. We currently assume a breakeven value to SEMG’s prospective $300mm acquisition of CHK’s mid-con assets, assuming they paid full price for an asset that likely had multiple suitors, including ACMP, who had exclusive negotiating rights thru March 1st, 2013 (SEMG announced acquisition May 1st). See SemGas section below for more discussion. Net Asset Value Shares outstanding 42.3mm MLP Assets Units Price Value Value/sh RRMS LP Units 12.6mm $35.66 $448 $10.6 RRMS GP Ownership $275 $6.5 NGL LP Units 9.1mm $28.92 $264 $6.2 NGL GP Ownership (6.42%) $8 $0.2 Subtotal $995 $23.5 Other Assets Multiple '15 EBITDA Value Value/sh White Cliffs Pipeline (34%) 11.0x $53.2 $586 $13.8 Glass Mountain 11.0x $19.7 $217 $5.1 Wattenburg 10.0x $5.0 $50 $1.2 SemGas ex-CHK Assets 10.0x $44.8 $448 $10.6 CHK Assets $300 $7.1 SemCAMS 10.0x $35.4 $354 $8.4 Logistics/Mexico/G&A 10.0x ($10.0) ($100) ($2.4) Undesignated Growth Projects $123 $2.9 Warrant Dilution ($66) ($1.6) Net Debt - YE'14 ($384) ($9.1) Total $2,523 $60 Source: Company Reports, USCA 2 ** Important Disclosures on pages 9-10 of this report ** USCA Equity Research SEMG – July 24, 2013 USCA Estimated Drop Downs for RRMS from SEMG Forward EBITDA Asset Price (est) Timing EBITDA (est)* Multiple White Cliffs Pipeline (17%) $274 $20.4 13.4x Q1'13 Glass Mountain Pipeline (50%) $237 $19.7 12.0x Q1'14 Wattenberg Pipeline $50 $5.0 10.0x Q1'14 White Cliffs Pipeline (17%) $311 $28.3 11.0x Q1'15 White Cliffs Pipeline (17%) $317 $28.8 11.0x Q1'16 SemGas (50%) $544 $54.4 10.0x Q1'17 SemGas (50%) $544 $54.4 10.0x Q1'18 *Estimated EBITDA for asset year after dropdown Segment Overview SEMG conducts their business through six business segments. An “Other” category, which is primarily corporate overhead, allows the associated percent of EBITDA below to foot to 100%. Crude (60% of ‘13E EBITDA) – includes their LP and GP stakes in RRMS, another 34% stake in the White Cliffs crude oil pipeline, and additional crude oil assets under development; SemCAMS (20%) – fee based gas processing in Canada; SemGas (16%) – Mid-Continent and Texas gas gathering and processing; SemStream (12%) – holds their LP and GP stakes in NGL Energy, formerly their propane assets; SemMexico (5%) – Mexico-based asphalt services company; and SemLogistics (0%) – U.K.-based company which owns petroleum products storage. Crude (60% of ‘13E EBITDA) SEMG’s Crude business consists primarily of their LP and GP stakes in RRMS (see associated coverage initiation piece on RRMS), along with their remaining 34% interest in White Cliffs crude oil pipeline. White Cliffs is a 70 mbpd crude line from the DJ Basin to Cushing, OK that is expanding to 150 mbpd in Q2’14. SEMG plans on spending ~$102mm for the pipeline expansion (and another $49mm at RRMS level). In addition, they have a JV with Gavilon to build the Glass Mountain Pipeline, a 210-mile, 140 mbpd crude oil pipeline in western and north central Oklahoma to transport Mississippi Lime and Granite Wash production to an interconnect with Gavilon’s Cushing storage. Total SEMG capex for the project should be ~$130mm, and the pipe is expected to go into service in Q4 ‘13. CHK signed a long-term agreement for capacity, which provided the economic incentive to build the pipeline. Specific contracted volumes have not been disclosed, but we are assuming that volumes will gradually ramp up to 125 mbpd by ’16, at which point we believe the pipeline will have achieved SEMG’s target of ~$20mm (net to SEMG) annual EBITDA. PAA is also building a Mississippi Lime crude oil pipeline, anchored by SandRidge Energy production and has announced a 55-mile extension of the line into southwest Kansas. The other major growth project for the Crude segment is the Wattenberg Oil Trunkline, a new crude oil gathering system in the DJ Basin. The $39mm system will extend 37 miles north from RRMS’ Platteville Station (the starting point of the White Cliffs Pipeline) and will connect with Noble Energy’s production area. Expected in-service is also Q4’13. Segment Outlook: We model Crude segment EBITDA growing from ~$75mm of EBITDA in ’12 (71% of SEMG total), to $134mm by ’16 (54% of SEMG total), driven by the White Cliffs expansion and the new Glass Mountain and Wattenberg Trunkline projects.
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